Friday
Under 177 2 units Pho/Wash (greek)
Under 177 2 units Pho/Wash (greek)
-
Comment -
add
Connecticut +4.5
Ny/Connecticut Under 158
1.5 units eachComment -
record 21-19 (+2.45)
Saturday
Over 157 Atl/Chi (greek) 1.5 units
Projections
Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 80 Chicago Sky 78 -2
Neutral Chicago Sky 80 Atlanta Dream 78 -2
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 81 Atlanta Dream 77 -4
Average Pace of Game 158.4
Away Team Controls Pace 151.4
Home Team Controls Pace 165.5
Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 77 Seattle Storm 73 -4
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 75 Seattle Storm 74 -1
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 76 Minnesota Lynx 74 -2
Average Pace of Game 149.6
Away Team Controls Pace 149.1
Home Team Controls Pace 150.1Comment -
add
Over 147.5 Min/Sea 1 unitComment -
Tuesday
21-21 (-0.30)
Played
Atlanta +2.5
Over 154.5 atl/ind
lines from greek 1.5 units each
1.5 units eachComment -
add
over 142 Sea/Chicago 1 unitComment -
add
Connecticut -5 1 unitComment -
Nice day
Comment -
Thank you. good luck tomorrow if you play anythingComment -
record
25-21 (+4.70)
Wednesday
Over 155 ATL/Washington 1.5 unitsComment -
No projections?
A little blind fade action perhaps....I like it...I always love a challenge...thanks and bol...Comment -
I'd rather not waste my time because the only thing anybody cares about on this forum is picks. This is by far the worst forum for actually handicapping talk. That's why I'm not posting my projections. NOBODY but me cares. Why waste my time?
Plus I could care less what you play. I play what I think will win. I think you have too high an opinion of yourself that I would even care what you are playing. Here are my projections. The line is too low in the Atlanta game, contrary to your belief. That's why I played the over. I don't care what you do. You won't win long term using the numbers and reasoning you use in the WNBA, FACT.
Projections
Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Atlanta Dream 79 Washington Mystics 79 0
Neutral Atlanta Dream 81 Washington Mystics 78 -3
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Washington Mystics 76 -6
Average Pace of Game 158.4
Away Team Controls Pace 160.9
Home Team Controls Pace 155.9Last edited by ebemiss; 07-20-11, 11:12 AM.Comment -
Plus you've played almost 30 more games than I have this season and your still -7 units behind me. I don't care what you play, I don't know if I can be any clearer.
Good luck with your plays if you are on the same side as mine. Not so much if we are on different sides. It's that simple.Comment -
Here are my numbers for yesterday. My plays were based on them as a starting point and handicapping. They led me to a 4-0 day. I didn't fade anybody. My numbers are accurate and I actually watch the games.
projections
Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 79 Indiana Fever 77 -2
Neutral Indiana Fever 79 Atlanta Dream 77 -2
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 80 Atlanta Dream 76 -4
Average Pace of Game 156.2
Away Team Controls Pace 152.4
Home Team Controls Pace 159.9
Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Seattle Storm 72 Chicago Sky 72 0
Neutral Seattle Storm 74 Chicago Sky 71 -3
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 75 Chicago Sky 69 -6
Average Pace of Game 144.4
Away Team Controls Pace 145.1
Home Team Controls Pace 143.7
Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 80 New York Liberty 76 -4
Neutral Connecticut Sun 78 New York Liberty 77 -1
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 79 Connecticut Sun 77 -2
Average Pace of Game 155.4
Away Team Controls Pace 155.2
Home Team Controls Pace 155.6Comment -
Fair enough...you are entitled to your opinion and only time will tell as to my long term wnba success. It's nice to know that at least you think your methods will prove successful long term, although, based on your current record, that is debatable. But small sample size still, so time will tell on that as well.
I would disagree with your statements about the forum, however, and say most people don't care about your thread or projections is because your poor attitude and ego driven posts turns them off. Your attack of MBP over his attempts at discussing modelling strategies is the perfect example. You can allege that I think too highly of my capping techniques, but there is a difference between confidence and cockiness. I've posted here for quite some time and everyone knows about my humility. Perhaps a dose of humility to your egotistical nature would be more inviting to the forum. Just my opinion though and I am sure you will respond that you don't care. Good luck anyway...I always try to stay away from petty forum arguments so hopefully we can move on and attack the books and both put a beating on them. At least one of us will win today lol. Good luck going forward.
Comment -
If you read my whole thread you'd realize your wrong. I asked for help tracking my numbers. MBP was nice enough to start helping but decided on HIS OWN, to track stat fox's numbers. All I asked was why he offered to help me and then decided to track another rating system with my totals.
His whole agenda was to create his own rating system. At least I was honest from the start, and asked for assistance.
I'm not cocky at all. I think my numbers are good but I was the first one to ask for help in this thread. I'm no expert but I don't pretend to be one either. I have strong opinions that's it.
Also "based on my current record" my way of doing this is better than yours. You have 30 more picks and less units. That is the only thing I can say for sure. That's not cocky that's the facts.Comment -
Record
26-21 (+6.2)
Thursday
Indiana -6
San Antonio +4
Over Sea/Sa 146.5
1 unit each
Projections
Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 Chicago Sky 71 -4
Neutral Indiana Fever 74 Chicago Sky 73 -1
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 74 Indiana Fever 72 -2
Average Pace of Game 146.6
Away Team Controls Pace 144.1
Home Team Controls Pace 149
Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 74 San Antonio Silver Stars 73 -1
Neutral San Antonio Silver Stars 75 Seattle Storm 72 -3
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 76 Seattle Storm 71 -5
Average Pace of Game 147
Away Team Controls Pace 150.4
Home Team Controls Pace 143.7Comment -
Record
27-23 (+5.0)
Tuesday
Over 156 Tulsa/Atlanta
Under 160 Minnesota/LA
1.5 units eachComment -
Good luck ebemiss. I'm always a bit wary considering totals for Tulsa games as you have to factor in that their opponents have to score about 60-70 percent of the points
Comment -
I hear ya. They've been tough to watch. Couple factors I liked
1. Line value and initial line drop giving me a better number. I have it around 160
2. Tulsa's play at home, MUCH better than on the road. No overs on the road. 3-2 over at home.
3. Atlanta seems to be playing better 3 wins in a row.
We'll see. I just think the Tulsa totals have finally dropped to a level to start looking over again. Good luck with the plays today.Comment -
add
Under 153.5 Washington/San AntonioComment -
1.5 units as well on add playComment -
Record 29-24 (+6.35)
Thursday
Over 182 San Antonio/Phoenix 1 unitComment -
Biggish number for a WNBA game but should be good for the Over. Good luck
Comment -
Too big, I reckon.
It may win but I generally hold the theory that you should not go under small totals, nor over big ones in NBA because of structural factors re: natural rate of scoring that tend to regress towards the mean.Comment -
no more projections?Comment -
Yes but PHO is an "Over" team and last game they went under. I'm going with the Over on this one.Comment -
Projections
Location Predicted Line
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 93 Phoenix Mercury 90 -3
Neutral Phoenix Mercury 92 San Antonio Silver Stars 91 -1
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 93 San Antonio Silver Stars 90 -3
Average Pace of Game 183.1
Away Team Controls Pace 193
Home Team Controls Pace 173.4
Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Los Angeles Sparks 77 -5
Neutral Atlanta Dream 81 Los Angeles Sparks 79 -2
at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 80 Atlanta Dream 79 -1
Average Pace of Game 159.7
Away Team Controls Pace 158.3
Home Team Controls Pace 161.2
Location Predicted Line
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 79 Washington Mystics 73 -6
Neutral New York Liberty 78 Washington Mystics 74 -4
at Washington Mystics New York Liberty 76 Washington Mystics 76 0
Average Pace of Game 151.8
Away Team Controls Pace 151.4
Home Team Controls Pace 152.3
Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 75 Indiana Fever 73 -2
Neutral Indiana Fever 75 Connecticut Sun 74 -1
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 76 Connecticut Sun 72 -4
Average Pace of Game 148.4
Away Team Controls Pace 146.2
Home Team Controls Pace 150.7
Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock Chicago Sky 77 Tulsa Shock 71 -6
Neutral Chicago Sky 79 Tulsa Shock 69 -10
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 80 Tulsa Shock 68 -12
Average Pace of Game 148.4
Away Team Controls Pace 145.5
Home Team Controls Pace 151.3Comment -
Good picks for me. I got the Over and SA -1 in the first half and the Over and SA -2 for the game. I also got the Over for the second half but had picked PHO -2. So 5 for 6 on this game. I'll take it.Comment -
Add
Over 147 Chicago/Tulsa
Under 151 Indiana/Connecticut
1 unit each
I don't like that I'm against RAS on both of these, but I liked them on my initial capping, and the line movement has moved enough to make them plays.Comment -
Been working on a 2nd half "project" will post it as that. Will play much less than regular plays. 1st play that fits
Under 76.5 NY/Was .25 unitsComment -
Record
31-25 (+7.25)
2nd half experiment
0-1 (-0.28)
I now have something set up to play the second halves automatically if they meet a certain criteria based on current game pace vs projected game pace, game score, and line value as to what the line "should" be in the second half based on original total. I'm still going to play any of them small even if they fit.
Basically each 1st half line is 49% of the total. For example game total is 150, 1st half will be around 73.5. Second half should be 76.5. What I'm finding is value based on those original starting numbers.
Ideally if the game is not a blowout, either way, and the pace is either slightly faster or slower in the first half, I've set something up to find "value" in the second half line. We'll see how it works.
The play I posted lost by a bucket in the second half but after tweaking my criteria and looking back over a bunch of games that i tracked, the margin at halftime was too wide at the half.
The last game of the night fit the profile and hit, I just didn't get a chance to post it. Chicago and Tulsa closed at 147. Using my 49% number, the first half total should have been 72, second half 75. Second half moved to 75.5 and I had the pace/possessions slightly lower or slower than predicted. Fit the profile for an under play in the second half as the game margin fit in to my +/- for score, the pace was just a bit slower, and the original 2nd half total of 75 pre game was exceeded.
Alot of factors, but something to seriously look at going forward.
Friday Projections
Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 75 Seattle Storm 71 -4
Neutral Minnesota Lynx 74 Seattle Storm 72 -2
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 74 Minnesota Lynx 72 -2
Average Pace of Game 146.1
Away Team Controls Pace 142.3
Home Team Controls Pace 149.9
ocation Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Indiana Fever 74 Washington Mystics 71 -3
Neutral Indiana Fever 76 Washington Mystics 70 -6
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 77 Washington Mystics 68 -9
Average Pace of Game 145.3
Away Team Controls Pace 144
Home Team Controls Pace 146.6Last edited by ebemiss; 07-28-11, 10:44 PM.Comment -
Friday
Over 147 Minnesota/SeattleComment -
2nd half
2nd half Under 74 Indiana/Washington .25 unitsComment -
Record
32-25 (+8.25)
2nd half experiment
1-1 (-0.03)
Saturday
Phoenix +3.5 1 unit
Under 143 Tulsa/Seattle 1.5 unitsComment
