Pounding Lakers/NO Under

[Ramster]

halftime it is under. it can still go over for the full game.

[Love The Action]

Are you thinking of hedging at all at halftime? The pace was actually not that slow, but there wasn't too much scoring because there were very few fouls. Both teams shot pretty well - the only thing that scares me is if refs start blowing the whistle more in the second half

I generally never hedge, but that is actually what I am contemplating right now. Not so much to cover my butt, but to shoot for the middle. Right now, my book has 90.5. That gives me a 6 point range to hit both the game under and 2h over. Oh man, I hate these decisions because I like to stick with my original instinct. However, I believe your analysis to be spot on.

[Love The Action]

I'm putting 2.5u on the 2h over 90.5. This gives me a six point range to middle with my game under play. Right now, I have a 96 point cushion to give to win the game under play. Therefore, if they score between 91 and 96 in the 2h, I win 17.5u. If the game under hits alone, I would win 12.2u. Good luck guys.

[JOHON8]

Holy sht I counted like 10 missed shots in a row...

[Love The Action]

Right now, I'm wishing I didn't make that 2h over play. That middle is not looking good LOL...don't get me wrong though, I'm not complaining! Still a lot of game left though...

[kobstopa]

relax, it's all good

[goblinburner]

still early but that under looks like a gem man thanxs for the post and thoughtful information shit man if you got a itch on a pick msg me man ill tail you

[eberetta1]

Finally, Lakers up by 11 late in the 3rd quarter. With four fouls on two players for the Hornets, the Lakers should be able to score at will in the 4th.

[Love The Action]

A beautiful 31 point third quarter gives the under a 68 point cushion for the fourth quarter in order to cash. In order to win my middle bet, I need a 62 point fourth. Hopefully, we can see a repeat of that third quarter and we cash this game under easy. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm playing on the under in the Lakers/Hornets game Wednesday.

The line opened at 187 and jumped to 187.5 with a whopping 90% of all bets on the over. With so many people on the over, you might expect Pinny, 5D, MBK, etc. to be juicing the over. However, they are all holding even or juicing the under slightly. I have locked in 1 unit already and am looking to add more, possible up to 10, after checking out the refs.

Here is my reasoning:

• The Hornets shot 60% in game one of this series. I fully expect them to return to their average of about 46%.
• The Lakers were embarrassed and displayed a poor defensive effort in losing game one. I fully expect the Lakers to come out with some defensive intensity from the outset. The pace in the first game was similar to pace set in game one of the Bulls/Pacers and Magic/Hawks series. The common thread with those game were that they all went over due to above average shooting percentages and paces which deviated from these teams' averages. However, after the Bulls and Magic ramped up the defensive effort, both of their game two's went under. I expect the Lakers to do the same here and for the under to hit just like the second games of Bulls/Pacers and Hawks/Magic series.
• Both the Lakers and Hornets were under machines all year, with the Hornets going 32-51 o/u and the Lakers going 34-59 o/u. On the road, the Hornets were 16-26 o/u, while the Lakers were 18/24 o/u at home. With the total set between 185 and 189, the two teams were a combined 17-24 o/u. When the Lakers were favored by 11 or more, they went 2-8 o/u and when a dog of 11 or more, the Hornets went 0-1 o/u. On two days' rest, the two teams are a combined 7-11 o/u.
• Both teams are at the bottom of the league in pace and possessions per game stats.

Even though most of their recent matchups have gone over and a lot of recent trends for both teams point over, I really think the true identity of these defensive minded teams comes out in this game and we see the under hit. With the line set at 187.5 and probable to rise (although I do expect some RLM at some point), I think that gives us a buffer over the recent low 180's we have seen for this matchup. The last time these two teams went under, the game total was set at 188.5.

Finally, I think the team chemistry building endeavor of backing up Lamar Odom, where Kobe, Pau, Shannon Brown and others attended his sixth man of the year ceremony, brought this team together in the face of recent criticism.

For all those reasons, I like this game to stay under the posted total. If I see a Rodney Mott, or another one of the refs that favors the under almost as much, I will be pounding the under for a possible 10 unit play.

SBR was down for awhile. We cashed the OKC under play and the Lakers game is just about to start. I actually upped my play to 15 units, most of it at 187.5 but I also have a few units at 187 and 186.5.

WINNER!!

Because I lost my shot at the middle by playing the 2h under for 2.5 units, I ended up cashing 12.5 units on the Lakers game under play. With the 5u winner on the OKC/Den under, I ended up 17.5 units tonight in the NBA. I went 3-3 in the MLB, losing .5 units. Therefore, I had a total winning day of 17 units.

Thanks for the support guys. Hope you got in on this play. Let's do it all over again tomorrow!

[aznknightt]

Thanks man, I had $100 on the over but once I saw your post I put $300 on the under.

[Love The Action]

Thanks man, I had $100 on the over but once I saw your post I put $300 on the under.

[SquareDinner]

Good hit on under but no good on lakers

[ultrasouth]

Good tip and good post action man

[hoyas2007]

This was a great call. Wish I hadn't mentioned hedging... There were a ton more free throws in the second half (41 ft's in second half versus 13 in first half), but fortunately shots stopped falling. Great analysis though and nice decision to double up when you saw the RLM. Thanks for the play

[thetrinity]

good pick had the U187 as well big.

[Love The Action]

This was a great call. Wish I hadn't mentioned hedging... There were a ton more free throws in the second half (41 ft's in second half versus 13 in first half), but fortunately shots stopped falling. Great analysis though and nice decision to double up when you saw the RLM. Thanks for the play

Thanks...the hedge was more my aggressiveness shooting for that middle. However, I agreed wholeheartedly with your analysis for that 2h over. No worries, we still cashed 12.5u on the game and 17u for the night.

Now, onto tonight. Early leans for tonight are bulls over, miami over and blazers under. Thoughts?

[forzuto13]

I liked that pick and was on it as well. So glad too that N.O. hung in there. Nice job!

[hoyas2007]

I wrote some of my thoughts in kgman's thread. I like Bulls over as well - I'd like to see that line start moving up - that would give me more confidence in the play. I am leaning Miami under. The pace in the two miami-philly games has been very consistent so far - very slow paced. Neither team appears to be trying to push it at all - both are comfortable playing slow-tempo. With Philly's inability to score recently, I think the under seems good. I don't see Philly coming home and all of a sudden scoring a ton of points (their offense has really struggled the last 10 games or so). If Miami can get out to a lead, then they will be totally happy to slow it down again. So it really depends on whether Philly can make shots, which could push Miami to play a bit more up-tempo. I just don't have a ton of confidence in Philly's offense right now.

I agree with you on the Dallas-Portland under. The last game was very odd - very fast-paced first half, then slow-paced second half. Both teams are coming off strong shooting performances and high PPPs - I would think that might trend the other way tonight. Aside from the first half of game 2, the series has been slow paced and low-scoring, and I would expect that to continue tonight.

What way are the public bets going tonight? We should have been on the SAS-Memphis under yesterday as well - zig zag theory in play and tons of line movement on the under a couple hours before gametime - that didn't surprise me at all when that hit. But we'll take the other two wins I guess...

[blinky88]

under looks good

[hoyas2007]

The more I think about it, Miami-Philly under seems too easy and that's why the public is on it. People are expecting Philly's struggles to continue, but they may come out re-energized at home after a crappy shooting night - that could push the total over. But they've been so bad offensively for so many games in a row that I don't know if they're capable of having a good shooting night at this point. Who knows - probably not a play for me either way. I still like the Bulls over, but so does the public, and the line hasn't moved much, so that scares me a bit. Portland-Dallas under could be the best play on the board. Public is on the over and we're getting a bit of RLM on that one, in addition to the reasons mentioned above. We'll see what the next few hours do to the lines...

[Love The Action]

The more I think about it, Miami-Philly under seems too easy and that's why the public is on it. People are expecting Philly's struggles to continue, but they may come out re-energized at home after a crappy shooting night - that could push the total over. But they've been so bad offensively for so many games in a row that I don't know if they're capable of having a good shooting night at this point. Who knows - probably not a play for me either way. I still like the Bulls over, but so does the public, and the line hasn't moved much, so that scares me a bit. Portland-Dallas under could be the best play on the board. Public is on the over and we're getting a bit of RLM on that one, in addition to the reasons mentioned above. We'll see what the next few hours do to the lines...

Good post...I agree with a lot of that...still need to do some homework I on these games though...good luck!