5-point rule

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-14-10, 02:06 PM

Repeat with me: This-does-not-exist

**No coincidences** · 12-14-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Repeat with me: This-does-not-exist

I've won quite a few bets in the past with it.

No sure thing, of course, but I'd be leery of taking the over at 190.5.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-14-10, 02:20 PM

Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.

**BrigadierPudding** · 12-14-10, 02:35 PM

I don't buy it either. If a book is willing to move 5 points, they obviously don't feel very confident in their number.

**No coincidences** · 12-14-10, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.

Doesn't happen very often.

I remember LB's big play in late-November on the IND/LAC over. Line moved 5.5 points up, and the game wound up some 10-20 points under the total.

**Siresco** · 12-14-10, 03:28 PM

No Coin, I was gonna play this over anyway.. I think philly and the nets should score somewhere around 94 - 99 or something like that.

**dee_jas** · 12-14-10, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

NJ/PHI opened at 185 (or 185.5) and is now 190.5 at Pinny.

If it closes this high, take the under.

Interesting, How much would the line have to drop from 190 to be a no play.

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.

Originally posted by No coincidences

Doesn't happen very often.

I remember LB's big play in late-November on the IND/LAC over. Line moved 5.5 points up, and the game wound up some 10-20 points under the total.

For shits n giggles since this thread is started how about we track that theory right here. We will base it on the Pinny opener and closer. Thus far PHI/NJ is a play so lets track it for the hell of it and see how it works over the course of the rest of the season. Let's play each for an imaginary 1 unit and see how it goes.

If the total is 5 pts more or less at or near the closer somebody post it as a play. You don't have to play it, this is just for fun to see how good this theory works, deal?

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-14-10, 03:36 PM

Go ahead

**No coincidences** · 12-14-10, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

For shits n giggles since this thread is started how about we track that theory right here. We will base it on the Pinny opener and closer. Thus far PHI/NJ is a play so lets track it for the hell of it and see how it works over the course of the rest of the season. Let's play each for an imaginary 1 unit and see how it goes.

If the total is 5 pts more or less at or near the closer somebody post it as a play. You don't have to play it, this is just for fun to see how good this theory works, deal?

**TakeIt** · 12-14-10, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

NJ/PHI opened at 185 (or 185.5) and is now 190.5 at Pinny.

If it closes this high, take the under.

why wait for the close? why not take it now?

(i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by TakeIt

why wait for the close? why not take it now?

(i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)

Ouch! It moved agaisnt you.. Take it or leave it?

**LostBankroll** · 12-14-10, 04:38 PM

I was thinking about this nmber aswell. Its at 191 now. Last night I was thinking about the unde at 188.5 but didnt do it. I think if it goes to 192 or above im playing it and posting in here.

**No coincidences** · 12-14-10, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by TakeIt

why wait for the close? why not take it now?

(i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)

Because if it dips back under the 5 late, it's no longer a contrarian play.

**TakeIt** · 12-14-10, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Ouch! It moved agaisnt you.. Take it or leave it?

i have no choice but to ride it out, otherwise i'd have to fade a 4.5 point middle. the thing is that at 191 i would have passed.

**BettingWizard** · 12-14-10, 05:19 PM

I thought I read somewhere that if you fade big line moves you'll hit around 54%.

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

I thought I read somewhere that if you fade big line moves you'll hit around 54%.

well we are gonna find out here about 5 pt moves on the total. It is a small sample size we'll get but hopefully we can draw some valid conclusions moving forward.

**kobefanatic** · 12-14-10, 05:31 PM

i remember this theory being talked about by LB and shoe last season, it's quite effective

**firehoyt** · 12-14-10, 05:43 PM

So, would it be a safe bet to play the under here or not?

**ebbearsfb1** · 12-14-10, 05:54 PM

yea take the under if its 190.5 or higher

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by firehoyt

So, would it be a safe bet to play the under here or not?

Safe and bet don't belong in the same sentence. We are just tracking it, but you may bet it if you like.

**firehoyt** · 12-14-10, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Safe and bet don't belong in the same sentence. We are just tracking it, but you may bet it if you like.

Yes, this is an Oxymoron....but you got what I mean..LOL It's 191 on Bodog......Hmmm.......

**forloveofthegame** · 12-14-10, 06:04 PM

as meaningless as it seems 2 of my under plays that hit this year had similar movement

**firehoyt** · 12-14-10, 06:04 PM

192 now....

**firehoyt** · 12-14-10, 06:09 PM

WTH!!!!

Single #197856781 (Placed by Web)Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Total
(701) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (702) New Jersey Nets Under 192 (-115) Tue@6:05p
Risk US$ 15.00 to win US$ 13.04

**vyomguy** · 12-14-10, 06:12 PM

Guys...nets and 76ers are good defensive teams...the reason the total is high is because of 76ers high scoring games recently. They wont keep shooting lights out every game....today's game total will go way under...just watch..it will be in 170s.

**hels** · 12-14-10, 06:18 PM

When you think about the psychology behind books moving lines it would appear Over should be the correct play when the line keeps going up. Why, because the higher the number the more likely it is people will bet the Under. So how is it appropriate to play the Under when that theoretically is what the books are asking for?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 06:19 PM

I loved the under at 188.5 and can't believe it's where it is now.

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by hels

When you think about the psychology behind books moving lines it would appear Over should be the correct play when the line keeps going up. Why, because the higher the number the more likely it is people will bet the Under. So how is it appropriate to play the Under when that theoretically is what the books are asking for?

Most have all kind of different opinions on this so we will track it here and maybe by the end of the season we can see if there are any valid conclsuons that can be formed albeit from a very small sample size moving forward.

**No coincidences** · 12-14-10, 06:24 PM

Considering the D the Sixers have been playing lately, you'd be nothing short of foolish to take the over now IMHO.

**LostBankroll** · 12-14-10, 06:24 PM

WTF I wish I had 192 I would POUND the Under.

**Pride** · 12-14-10, 06:32 PM

buy a point then lol?

**hels** · 12-14-10, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Most have all kind of different opinions on this so we will track it here and maybe by the end of the season we can see if there are any valid conclsuons that can be formed albeit from a very small sample size moving forward.

I think it will be great to track this. My question was more hypothetical than opinionated because I believe playing the opposite of dramatic line movement is often the correct play.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-14-10, 06:46 PM

15 minutes to tipoff and the line moved from 185 to 191.

So instead of playing the over, we shall hypothetically play the under 191.

1st play.