~2010-2011 NBA Plays~

**sweetjones55** · 05-20-11, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by GTS925

Dex, why do you like the Heat so much? Thanks in advance, I'm going to sleep.

I was also curious about the Heat play. Do you really think the Heat should be favored by 7-8 points in this game? I would assume you at least think the line is off by 2 points if you are going 10X.

**Dexter** · 05-20-11, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I was also curious about the Heat play. Do you really think the Heat should be favored by 7-8 points in this game? I would assume you at least think the line is off by 2 points if you are going 10X.

your way of thinking is that a 10x play (which you dont even make) means the line must be off by 2-3 pts. i dont share that same mindset. as much as i would love chicago to win the series, i dont see it now with haslem back. hes that perfect tough guy the heat needed. miami has been dominant at home in the playoffs winning by 8, 21, 6, 9, 11 and 10. they just beat the bulls by 10 - imo, if the heat win this game, they will cover. if they lose, i still have that futures bet on chi which could make up this loss. the winner of this game is winning the series.

i obviously ****** up big time playing this game at 5.5. i had my line projected at 6.

**Dexter** · 05-20-11, 06:27 PM

SweetJones - question for you. i definitely want to start incorporating my line vs the actual line more. but here is where i always get scared off. my line in this game was 6 and i already liked the heat. now if the line came out at 4, in your opinion that should be a game i go heavy on.

im afraid that its 4 for a reason. the books are privied to inside information, and i sometimes look at spots like that with a

.....especially here in the playoffs when they have 1-2 games per day to make the sharpest line. perhaps on a wednsday night regular season, they can make a 2 point mistake.

i know you're a believer that books make mistakes, but i just dont trust my opinion vs theres enough to pounce hard on those "off" lines. if i had an algo model that proved it, thats a different story. but i dont, and dont plan on going that in depth next year (if i even bet this sport anymore)

**sweetjones55** · 05-20-11, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

SweetJones - question for you. i definitely want to start incorporating my line vs the actual line more. but here is where i always get scared off. my line in this game was 6 and i already liked the heat. now if the line came out at 4, in your opinion that should be a game i go heavy on.

im afraid that its 4 for a reason. the books are privied to inside information, and i sometimes look at spots like that with a

.....especially here in the playoffs when they have 1-2 games per day to make the sharpest line. perhaps on a wednsday night regular season, they can make a 2 point mistake.

i know you're a believer that books make mistakes, but i just dont trust my opinion vs theres enough to pounce hard on those "off" lines. if i had an algo model that proved it, thats a different story. but i dont, and dont plan on going that in depth next year (if i even bet this sport anymore)

Yes you definitely should pound a line you have pegged at 6 if it comes out at 4. If you don't believe the books make mistakes then why are you even gambling? Doesn't make sense to flip quarters and pay 10% juice on losses. Too many people give the books wayyyy too much credit. They really don't have as much inside information as people think. I believe the books make mistakes and it has paid off hitting 60% now last two years. There is no way I am getting lucky for this long, there are weak lines that can be exploited.

As for the books making mistakes in the playoffs with very short cards. Yes, they do it all the time. The most perfect example I can give you is this. 2010 Super Bowl Saints vs Colts. You got to think that the NFL Super Bowl is the sharpest line ever. It's the sharpest sport, NFL, and it's the biggest, most bet on game of the year. Line was Colts -6. Billy Walters had his line of Saints -1. That's an NFL Super Bowl line that according to the most successful sports gambler of all time (and probably the best linesmaker in the world if he wanted to go that route) is off by 7 points. If the Super Bowl can be that far off, trust me any line on any day of the week can be off.

IMO, you can't win in sports gambling lucratively long term unless you are exploiting weak lines.

**Love The Action** · 05-20-11, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Yes you definitely should pound a line you have pegged at 6 if it comes out at 4. If you don't believe the books make mistakes then why are you even gambling? Doesn't make sense to flip quarters and pay 10% juice on losses. Too many people give the books wayyyy too much credit. They really don't have as much inside information as people think. I believe the books make mistakes and it has paid off hitting 60% now last two years. There is no way I am getting lucky for this long, there are weak lines that can be exploited.

As for the books making mistakes in the playoffs with very short cards. Yes, they do it all the time. The most perfect example I can give you is this. 2010 Super Bowl Saints vs Colts. You got to think that the NFL Super Bowl is the sharpest line ever. It's the sharpest sport, NFL, and it's the biggest, most bet on game of the year. Line was Colts -6. Billy Walters had his line of Saints -1. That's an NFL Super Bowl line that according to the most successful sports gambler of all time (and probably the best linesmaker in the world if he wanted to go that route) is off by 7 points. If the Super Bowl can be that far off, trust me any line on any day of the week can be off.

IMO, you can't win in sports gambling lucratively long term unless you are exploiting weak lines.

This.

You have to always remember that books set the line off perception. Not the perception of who will win, but the perception of which way the money will go. As you guys know, the books don't actually think or care that the Heat will win by 4 or by 6, but they have to open up at -6 or they would have gotten killed with too much Heat money had they opened at -4. The books know the Heat have a huge public following and would have killed the -4 number, so they opened with -6 to get some Chicago money in right off the bat and cover their asses from the all the Heat money that will come in over the next couple days.

Consequently, because the books are basing many of their lines off public perception, and public perception is often wrong, this creates the inflated lines and leads to the mistakes referenced by SJ.

Good luck on your play. I'm actually rolling with the Bulls though in game 3. The Bulls and Thibs generally make the adjustments necessary to avoid back to back adjustments and I just can't pass up the value created by the inflated number.

**Dexter** · 05-21-11, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Yes you definitely should pound a line you have pegged at 6 if it comes out at 4. If you don't believe the books make mistakes then why are you even gambling? Doesn't make sense to flip quarters and pay 10% juice on losses. Too many people give the books wayyyy too much credit. They really don't have as much inside information as people think. I believe the books make mistakes and it has paid off hitting 60% now last two years. There is no way I am getting lucky for this long, there are weak lines that can be exploited.

As for the books making mistakes in the playoffs with very short cards. Yes, they do it all the time. The most perfect example I can give you is this. 2010 Super Bowl Saints vs Colts. You got to think that the NFL Super Bowl is the sharpest line ever. It's the sharpest sport, NFL, and it's the biggest, most bet on game of the year. Line was Colts -6. Billy Walters had his line of Saints -1. That's an NFL Super Bowl line that according to the most successful sports gambler of all time (and probably the best linesmaker in the world if he wanted to go that route) is off by 7 points. If the Super Bowl can be that far off, trust me any line on any day of the week can be off.

IMO, you can't win in sports gambling lucratively long term unless you are exploiting weak lines.

allright....new strategy next year.

ps: not anyone can hit 60%...you're pretty talented at this.

**fly fisher** · 05-21-11, 07:40 AM

dex and SJ. thanks to both of you that was a good exchange of words and worth reading.

**sweetjones55** · 05-21-11, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

This.

You have to always remember that books set the line off perception. Not the perception of who will win, but the perception of which way the money will go. As you guys know, the books don't actually think or care that the Heat will win by 4 or by 6, but they have to open up at -6 or they would have gotten killed with too much Heat money had they opened at -4. The books know the Heat have a huge public following and would have killed the -4 number, so they opened with -6 to get some Chicago money in right off the bat and cover their asses from the all the Heat money that will come in over the next couple days.

Consequently, because the books are basing many of their lines off public perception, and public perception is often wrong, this creates the inflated lines and leads to the mistakes referenced by SJ.

Good luck on your play. I'm actually rolling with the Bulls though in game 3. The Bulls and Thibs generally make the adjustments necessary to avoid back to back adjustments and I just can't pass up the value created by the inflated number.

Exactly. Perception is where you can make money. The books don't make the line predicting what they think will happen in the game. They make the line predicting what will get 50/50 action.

A good example of this is Memphis Game 3. The line opened up at PK. Now was this a bad line by the books? No, because the books knew there would be people on Memphis at PK and you'd get a ton of people on what is the better perceived team SA at PK. Now was this line off as a prediction of what was going to happen? Yes, no way Memphis shouldn't have been favored by 3-4 points. They are the better team playing at home.

**MrSink** · 05-22-11, 06:28 AM

pleasure to read
thank you

**Dexter** · 05-22-11, 07:15 AM

lets try the "My Line" thing. this year i may have skipped some nights when i knew i had autobets. i do not look at the actual line at all as i want to see if there is any major difference between my line and the books. my thought process behind "my line" - this is what i would make the line to create an even amount of action on the game. it has nothing to do with a projected final score.

Game 4: Thunder -4

**Dexter** · 05-22-11, 07:22 AM

line is 4.5....no edge on the opener. i like the thunder in this game - but even if the line dropped to 3.5 that may worry me as dallas being the play. its not going any lower then 3.5 where it would create a significant variance...

**MrSink** · 05-22-11, 10:02 PM

Big night for Big three

**Dexter** · 05-22-11, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Playoffs 5/9-5/15: 7-4 (+18u)

YTD: 318-317 (-55.25u)

*Home Team ATS Playoffs: 33-31

Playoffs 5/17-5/22: 2-3 (+2.5u)

YTD: 320-320 (-52.75)

*Home Team ATS Playoffs: 35-34

**Dexter** · 05-22-11, 10:08 PM

Game 4 Line: Heat -6

**Dexter** · 05-22-11, 10:13 PM

Monday 5/23:

(3u) thunder -3.5
(3u) under thunder 195.5

**fly fisher** · 05-23-11, 07:44 AM

great hit on Miami last night. good to see you get that 10xer.

**Dexter** · 05-23-11, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

great hit on Miami last night. good to see you get that 10xer.

thx fly

**MrSink** · 05-23-11, 05:46 PM

Im on under also

really afraid about spread tonight
good luck

**aireent777** · 05-23-11, 08:12 PM

Good luck Dex.

**Dexter** · 05-24-11, 06:09 AM

Game 5 Line: Mavs -6

**Dexter** · 05-24-11, 02:02 PM

Tue 5/24:

(3u) heat -5

**MrSink** · 05-24-11, 02:23 PM

Im on Heat also

**MrSink** · 05-24-11, 10:37 PM

so amazing
one of my biggest bet this year and miracle backdoor cover

**Dexter** · 05-24-11, 10:38 PM

sick block by wade....

Game 5 Line: Bulls -2.5

**MrSink** · 05-25-11, 02:02 AM

like this line, probably bulls will extend the series

**fly fisher** · 05-25-11, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

sick block by wade....

Game 5 Line: Bulls -2.5

Yes it was. I only wish they would have shown it a few more times. That and the hustle to follow in saving that ball from going OB.

So do you think the Mavs can win be 7 or more? After watching them this last game, I just don't see OKC beating them. I have Mavs ML on the last leg of a 3 team parlay for 1 unit that will pay 2 units so feel good about that but I am leary taking that Mavs at -6.5 thinking that OKC can make this last game close, but on the other hand, I can see Westbrook taking bad shot after bad shot in the last 3 minutes of the game and Dallas end up winning by 10. I also think that Dirk, will go to the FT line a lot more at home because the refs won't let Collison bump him as much. Dirk scoring 45 tonight would not surprise me one bit. So I am leaning hard to take the Mavs.

What is your take?

**Dexter** · 05-25-11, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

Yes it was. I only wish they would have shown it a few more times. That and the hustle to follow in saving that ball from going OB.

So do you think the Mavs can win be 7 or more? After watching them this last game, I just don't see OKC beating them. I have Mavs ML on the last leg of a 3 team parlay for 1 unit that will pay 2 units so feel good about that but I am leary taking that Mavs at -6.5 thinking that OKC can make this last game close, but on the other hand, I can see Westbrook taking bad shot after bad shot in the last 3 minutes of the game and Dallas end up winning by 10. I also think that Dirk, will go to the FT line a lot more at home because the refs won't let Collison bump him as much. Dirk scoring 45 tonight would not surprise me one bit. So I am leaning hard to take the Mavs.

What is your take?

absolutely.....that was a devasating collapse by the young thunder and i see the veteran mavs putting an end to this tonight. close game, but they should pull away to win by 10-13. dallas knows that resting up while they wait for the heat is important.

**Dexter** · 05-25-11, 10:19 AM

Wed 5/25:

(4u) mavs -6.5

Thur 5/26:

(3u) bulls -2.5

**fly fisher** · 05-25-11, 10:25 AM

thanks for the reply, Dex. I feel even better about the Mavs now.

**MrSink** · 05-25-11, 03:28 PM

like mavs also, but not as much as Heat yesterday
lets cash them

**Dexter** · 05-25-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

needless to say, i will be rooting pretty hard for a mavs/bulls final.

unfortunately, this is not the final david stern wants (heat/thunder)

do the mavs have home court in the west conf finals? too lazy to look...thx

Originally Posted by Dexter
Futures Bets:

(1x) bulls +800 (to win eastern conference)
(1x) bulls +1700 (to win nba championship)
(1x) mavs +750 (to win western conference)
(1x) mavs +1400 (to win nba championship)

I feel very confident that one of these 2 teams will make the nba finals. I see weaknesses in all of the other popular choices, and i think this is the year where someone new sneaks in. Both teams play defense, have a stud scorer to carry them, and have deep rosters. Noah has not even been a part of the bulls great season - hes a great defender, rebounder and hustle guy. the mavs have length and i think its their time to make a legit run. If i had a gun to my head, i would probably pick a Lakers/Celts rematch - but i'm looking for value and i know i have it with these 2 teams. One of them just has to make the finals for me to cash this ticket.
________________________________________ ______________________

needed that.....go mavs in the finals..

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-25-11, 11:03 PM

Cash Mavs future!

**7secondsOrLess** · 05-26-11, 01:14 AM

lol nice avatar paul

**Dexter** · 05-26-11, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Originally Posted by Dexter
Futures Bets:

(1x) bulls +800 (to win eastern conference)
(1x) bulls +1700 (to win nba championship)
(1x) mavs +750 (to win western conference)
(1x) mavs +1400 (to win nba championship)

I feel very confident that one of these 2 teams will make the nba finals. I see weaknesses in all of the other popular choices, and i think this is the year where someone new sneaks in. Both teams play defense, have a stud scorer to carry them, and have deep rosters. Noah has not even been a part of the bulls great season - hes a great defender, rebounder and hustle guy. the mavs have length and i think its their time to make a legit run. If i had a gun to my head, i would probably pick a Lakers/Celts rematch - but i'm looking for value and i know i have it with these 2 teams. One of them just has to make the finals for me to cash this ticket.
________________________________________ ______________________

needed that.....go mavs in the finals..

the heat are going to win the title....i will create a hedge and make a few bucks back off that 14/1 future on dallas....probably put a nickel on miami. series price should be around mia -170...

**lyon804** · 05-27-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

the heat are going to win the title....i will create a hedge and make a few bucks back off that 14/1 future on dallas....probably put a nickel on miami. series price should be around mia -170...

Was just dropping by to suggest a hedge on the series and I see you beat me to it. I don't know what the price opened at and I haven't checked other books but currently Miami is -185 at the greek. Either way heding is a great idea to guarantee your profits. Nice future bets btw