Why Suns -3?

**2daBank** · 05-21-10, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by in2thethickofit

Suns are the better team, that's why....

better than who? i know you not saying they better than La

**rumple** · 05-21-10, 12:14 AM

Im square, Lakers alll the way!!

**Nuggz** · 05-21-10, 12:16 AM

Lakers ML

**MarlinsFan2212** · 05-21-10, 12:22 AM

Suns will win game 3

**kobefanatic** · 05-21-10, 12:23 AM

i think this will be a close game, la might try to win this one to rest up for the series against boston

**lakerfan420** · 05-21-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Amare is Gasol's BITCH

Originally posted by 2daBank

Amare is Gasol's BITCH

seriously... its funny to see how mad amare gets when he cant slam it inside and when he finally can cause gasol loosens the chain a little bit its a retarded dunk haha

**beanbag** · 05-21-10, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by in2thethickofit

Suns are the better team, that's why....

**in2thethickofit** · 05-21-10, 01:24 AM

Suns are the better team, got more class on this team anyways

**in2thethickofit** · 05-21-10, 01:25 AM

Yes, I said that!

**in2thethickofit** · 05-21-10, 01:26 AM

Dodgers suck too for that matter

**shroomysoup** · 05-21-10, 01:59 AM

Anyone who doesn't bet Lakers moneyline is a fool.

**hoopster42** · 05-21-10, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Lakers were favored by anywhere from 5.5 to 7 in Games 1 and 2, and they covered twice with ease.

So now we have a 10-point swing in the line? Surprises me. Also surprises me knowing that the Lakers are a public play; now everyone will go out and pound LAL, who is even getting + money on the ML.

I honestly expected Suns at Pick or -1. That would at least make the public -- which cleaned up in Games 1 and 2 with Lakers and over -- stop and think. This line seems like a trap to take the Lakers, and that Vegas is actually expecting a 5+ point PHO win.

because the lakers arent gona shoot close to 60% in phoenix like they did at staples. the linesmakers and pro bettors know more than you, believe me

**hoopster42** · 05-21-10, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by shroomysoup

Anyone who doesn't bet Lakers moneyline is a fool.

that's a terrible bet

**frostno98** · 05-21-10, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

I say Phoenix is out matched, Lakers sweep.

Only in LA. Shooting is every thing here, and Phoenix just shoots alot better a home. The game was 90-90 in LA at the 3rd. If that happens again but in Phoenix, they'll win.

**tblues2005** · 05-21-10, 03:26 AM

This is surprising to me that the Suns are favored in game 3. I thought it would be Lakers -3. Something is up here that is all I can say.

**Szaber** · 05-21-10, 03:51 AM

I hope that Suns will win at least with 5-6 point!

**Goat Milk** · 05-21-10, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

This is surprising to me that the Suns are favored in game 3. I thought it would be Lakers -3. Something is up here that is all I can say.

Even the Jazz were minus 4 how does it surprise you? The line is right, same as I knew it'd be, there is nothing fishy about it. the Suns are a good team at home.

**LT Profits** · 05-21-10, 05:26 AM

I don't understand how so may guys even bet and yet seem surprised at this line. If you assume that home court advantage for each of these teams us about 5 points (which seems reasonable), then there SHOULD be a 10-point line swing with the change in venue. So if the Lakers were -7 in LA, this line in Phoenix is right where it should be.

**jjgold** · 05-21-10, 05:26 AM

Phoenix should win both games by 10 or more points

Load up

**kkkkk** · 05-21-10, 05:37 AM

suns are better team at home and Lakers are worse away where they lost to numerous teams in regular season and even lost 2 games to Oklahoma. Just they play much better in playoffs then expected. otherwise i would said Suns -3 10/10 bet

**Sawyer** · 05-21-10, 05:59 AM

Suns to win first quarter sounds a smart bet.

**kkkkk** · 05-21-10, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Suns to win first quarter sounds a smart bet.

same opinion, i see fast start here from suns, they always have either fast starts or high scoring first quarters.

**Dark Horse** · 05-21-10, 06:32 AM

Not touching this one with a ten foot pole.

The people that say that the Suns are a joke just show their ignorance. Didn't the Suns just sweep a very good Spurs team? What else do they have to do to earn respect? But this could be one of those series where the square public gets its way. This one is much less about the quality of the teams than about the matchups. I seriously doubt that the Suns will find an answer to the problem of dealing with not one, but two seven-footers.

The Nash-Suns are just unlucky. For years they ran into the Spurs, but beat the Lakers in the postseason, and now they sweep the Spurs, but don't match up well with the Lakers. Do I think it fair that the Lakers were basically given Pau Gasol? No. But that's what happened.

This series is marked by runs. The Lakers had three big runs in game one, and the Suns never had an answer. In game two the Suns were able to answer in the third quarter. But they paid for the effort in the fourth quarter (game tied at start of 4Q), and the Lakers had the final and decisive run. It is quickly forgotten, but after three quarters you could feel the tension in the Lakers crowd. With one strong quarter the Suns could have tied the series. So game two was an improvement.

There still is a flat Laker team out there somewhere. It showed up in that third quarter. The question is: for how long will it show up in Phoenix? If you compare a run to a punch, then the Lakers so far have been punching harder. Their runs are bigger. Gentry calls timeouts too late; Jackson calls them earlier. But it is not too late for the momentum to swing in this series. However, it will require that Gentry and staff outcoach Jackson. A huge IF. The Suns have to find defensive answers, and shave 25 points off the Lakers total. If they can, it's a new series. If not, the series is over.

The Suns effort so far has been timid. It is a mystery to me why Laker bodies have not been sent crashing to the floor, as the Spurs bodies were in the previous series. Part of it may have been the referees, who were definitely not in playoff mode in LA and sent Lakers to the line for every tickytack foul. Typical LA home cooking (a term used by Nash after game 2, but in a way that wouldn't get him fined...) So I can't bet on the Suns until they show me that they mean business, and until the zebras allow playoff basketball. It was 'interesting' that the zebra trio for game two combined for a stunning 69% ATS record for home faves in the 5 to 9.5 pt range.

**wrongturn** · 05-21-10, 07:56 AM

Good write-up Dark Horse. Amare really needs to step up his defense for Suns to have a chance. Although Lakers is a better team, they can be surprised by a small line-up team on road, even it is a little bit counter-intuitive.

**Crayzee** · 05-21-10, 08:25 AM

i really really think lakers will sweep but probably forced to hedge a little on my lakers sweep bet

**suicidekings** · 05-21-10, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I don't understand how so may guys even bet and yet seem surprised at this line. If you assume that home court advantage for each of these teams us about 5 points (which seems reasonable), then there SHOULD be a 10-point line swing with the change in venue. So if the Lakers were -7 in LA, this line in Phoenix is right where it should be.

And yet every single line that gets released, someone complains or questions if the line is a trap because it "looks fishy" as if they're purposely trying to confuse the issue in the minds of others as to what a fair value for the game is...

**WiseGrumpy** · 05-21-10, 10:57 AM

One thing is for sure LA won't just let this game go if the Suns will play better and take it back home. That is something I heard so many times: game 6 Vs OKC, both away games against the Jazz. LA and Kobe want a sweep. I said before this series started 4-1 LA, if the Suns won't play stronger defense and won't shoot a lot better from three point land, this will be clean sweep.

**hoopster42** · 05-21-10, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Phoenix should win both games by 10 or more points

Load up

i don't see them winning both but either way they will be close gms, the lakers dont get blown out, not this yr

**lakerboy** · 05-21-10, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Phoenix should win both games by 10 or more points

Load up

**Goat Milk** · 05-21-10, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Original Lean: PHX 70%, Lakers 30%
Lean after JJ's Post: PHX 58%, Lakers 42%

MB · 05-21-10, 12:22 PM

This series is over. LA will beat PHX by 5+. PHX can't match up. Amare still won't pull down important boards. Lakers are that much better right now and the suns offer little resistance on defense. This is the playoffs, you gotta stop folks when you need to and PHX can't. LA +3 and ML. Jump on it

**LT Profits** · 05-21-10, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by eberetta1

I can see an 8 point swing, but not 10 point swing.

10 points seems reasonable for these teams, 5-point HCA for each seems right.

**Weber** · 05-21-10, 01:01 PM

Home game for Suns= easy $$$.

**in2thethickofit** · 05-21-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Suns to win first quarter sounds a smart bet.

Let's cash on this one...best bet on the board

**GroundnPound** · 05-21-10, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

This is actually the smallest fave the Suns have been at home in the playoffs, and simultaneously the only time this season that the Suns have been favoured at home vs the Lakers (Dec 28: +1, Mar 12: +1). The thing is, the Suns have been steadily improving since the All Star break, with that improvement being much more apparent in their home games. IMO, a fair line for a game between these two teams as they stand today based just on the stats (before considering the specific matchup issues), sits at around PHX -4.5.

PHX -3 is right where it should be, as the Lakers can't really be favoured without the books showing their opinion. Public money will flow in on the Lakers and beat that number down to a spread that will essentially be a one possession game. This one's not really about playing a spread, but rather picking an outright winner. The spread won't matter.

Nice post kind of what I think just you put it better then I would of.