Sj55 nba playoff picks

**trojanman** · 05-11-10, 10:07 PM

tough night SJ....stuff happens. Regroup for Suns/Lakers and Celts/Magic. Cavs were an embarrassment and disgusting to watch. Let's hit it hard conference finals.

**sweetjones55** · 05-11-10, 10:10 PM

Will do trojanman, I dont want anyone to think im giving up after two heavy losses in a row. I just have a really busy week at work and don't have the time to cap the games. If anyone has questions I'll try my best to get to you.

**fly fisher** · 05-11-10, 10:28 PM

SJ. Two losses and I know you are bummed right now, but you are still a class act and thanks from all of us that you have helped. Have a good week at work and get caught up, then come back and give them vegas boys some hell.

**sweetjones55** · 05-12-10, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

SJ. Two losses and I know you are bummed right now, but you are still a class act and thanks from all of us that you have helped. Have a good week at work and get caught up, then come back and give them vegas boys some hell.

I'm not bummed at all. I've been doing this a while now and have gone through all the ups and downs. Two losses is nothing to me. I'll be back Sunday ready to go.

**sweetjones55** · 05-12-10, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

SJ. Two losses and I know you are bummed right now, but you are still a class act and thanks from all of us that you have helped. Have a good week at work and get caught up, then come back and give them vegas boys some hell.

I'm not bummed at all. I've been doing this a while now and have gone through all the ups and downs. Two losses is nothing to me. I'm still hitting over 60% in the playoffs and up a killing

**Krutoy** · 05-12-10, 05:49 AM

Keep it up SJ

**doctor_on_call** · 05-12-10, 06:24 AM

cant wait for your next plays sj55.

**Flopa3** · 05-12-10, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Will do trojanman, I dont want anyone to think im giving up after two heavy losses in a row. I just have a really busy week at work and don't have the time to cap the games. If anyone has questions I'll try my best to get to you.

SJ,

Have a good week Bro, I hope get everything at work finished up and out of the way. Thanks for the help and the picks

**Stringer Bell** · 05-12-10, 08:24 AM

Don't worry bout it SJ. Looking forward to the ass-kicking to continue on Sunday!

**shock11** · 05-12-10, 08:33 AM

nice picks

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 07:28 AM

33-14-1 (70%) my last 48 NBA playoff plays
33-19-1 (63%) NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
63-32-1 (67%) my last 96 plays
178-119-4 (60%) total NBA record.
6-4 (60%) my last 10 heavy/big 5+ unit plays.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 07:29 AM

On a bit of a cold streak going 1-3 last four plays but still at a nice 63% for the playoffs, 60% was my goal so anything above is good for me. I will have a play tonight. There is only one game to cap in the next 3 days so I will have the time. Also I know these two teams and the series like the back of my hand.

**fly fisher** · 05-13-10, 07:35 AM

I am very interested in what you think today SJ. I saw LB's pick but really want to view your writeup to see what you see. Wondering if you like first Q with Cavs again and 2nd Q with Boston. It seems like with a line of -1 we are being baited to take Cavs but I am not sure. I didn't get to watch the game but looking on line it seems tha LeBron wasn't interested in taking over or must have been frustrated. Either way to not be the leading scorer at home seems odd in a playoff game. My head is spinning on this one.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

I am very interested in what you think today SJ. I saw LB's pick but really want to view your writeup to see what you see. Wondering if you like first Q with Cavs again and 2nd Q with Boston. It seems like with a line of -1 we are being baited to take Cavs but I am not sure. I didn't get to watch the game but looking on line it seems tha LeBron wasn't interested in taking over or must have been frustrated. Either way to not be the leading scorer at home seems odd in a playoff game. My head is spinning on this one.

My head was spinning a bit also as I thought Vegas was just completely trapping all Boston backers but this is not the case. This is not a trap game. The public is very close to split on this game so Vegas will not really care who wins this game. Right now it is 57% on Boston which is not too significant. My guess is that the public will be on the +moneyline for Cleveland which will even it out in terms of who Vegas wants to win. They are not trying to get a lopsided amount on this game. They are just simply getting a huge amount of action on this game and will be collecting the 10% juice and call it a day.

**fly fisher** · 05-13-10, 07:42 AM

thanks man. reading between the lines it seems like boston is the right call. I will be looking at this post throughout the day at work to see what you and others put on here. hoping its a great day.

**doctor_on_call** · 05-13-10, 07:49 AM

im glad you're back sj55. good point. but at what percentage would the public bet be "significant"? ive read from another capper that it's around 75% to be considered significant. and that line movements got real bearing if the public is around 75% one sided.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by doctor_on_call

im glad you're back sj55. good point. but at what percentage would the public bet be "significant"? ive read from another capper that it's around 75% to be considered significant. and that line movements got real bearing if the public is around 75% one sided.

I would say anything like 70% or above.

**Dexter** · 05-13-10, 07:54 AM

who are you leaning on sweetjones?

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 08:11 AM

Monty McCuthen is the #19 ref ATS for Home Teams 39-35 ATS.
Bob Delaney is the #33 ref ATS for Home Teams 31-32 ATS.
Eddie F. Rush is the #11 ref ATS for Home Teams 37-31 ATS.

So we got two refs in the TOP 20 ATS for home teams and we got one ref who is very neutral. Keep in mind there are 67 refs.

Monty McCuthen is the #6 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 41-32 O/U (202ppg)
Bob Delaney is the #52 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 29-35 O/U (198ppg)
Eddie F. Rush is the #5 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 31-31 O/U (206ppg average is the highest of any ref)

We got two refs who strongly favor OVERS, Rush has the highest average total score of any ref in the NBA. Delaney favors the UNDER.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 08:14 AM

The total is way higher than normal at 196. The last five games average is 193 with the highest being 195. Close out games tend to go OVER because you get a ton of free throws at the end a lot of the time.

**HoulihansTX** · 05-13-10, 08:21 AM

Love the OVER

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 08:24 AM

Cavs/Celtics 1H OVER 99 LOCKED

I am going to take a shot at the 1H OVER in tonights game. These are the last 4 1H scores in Boston between these two teams. Three out of the last 4 games have gone OVER 99 in this series in the 1H with one pushing at exactly 99. All four games went OVER the posted 1H total for that game. The average score in the 1H is 106. TheGreek is juicing the 1H OVER 99 -115.

56-48 BOSTON (104)
64-49 BOSTON (113)
65-43 CLEVELAND (108)
54-45 Boston (99)

Monty McCuthen is the #6 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 41-32 O/U (202ppg)
Bob Delaney is the #52 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 29-35 O/U (198ppg)
Eddie F. Rush is the #5 ref in the NBA for OVERS at 31-31 O/U (206ppg average is the highest of any ref)

We got two refs who strongly favor OVERS, Rush has the highest average total score of any ref in the NBA. Delaney favors the UNDER.

**doctor_on_call** · 05-13-10, 08:25 AM

thanks sj55. bol with your plays.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 08:35 AM

I may have a play on the side today. I will wait and see how the line moves.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 09:42 AM

Leaning Celtics -1

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 10:52 AM

My last play of the year will be tonights 1H OVER 99 Cavs/Celtic for one unit.

I hit 60% this year on my total NBA plays and over 60% in the playoff. I hit both of my goals and will call it a night after tonight.

Good luck to everyone on their plays the rest of the playoffs. I will be back next year on here posting plays for the full year.

**PittsburghPlayer** · 05-13-10, 11:05 AM

Sweet, Thank you for all of your time and the lessons given. I hope that you have a safe/peaceful summer, on the boat and otherwise.

**dume walker** · 05-13-10, 11:20 AM

Thanks for all your great insights, SJ. Will miss your takes for the remainder of the playoffs. Hope it's all bluebirds and lemonade for you over the summer. See you next season.

**WiseGrumpy** · 05-13-10, 11:22 AM

GL on your last play SJ I agree 100% and might go with it myself.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by dume walker

Thanks for all your great insights, SJ. Will miss your takes for the remainder of the playoffs. Hope it's all bluebirds and lemonade for you over the summer. See you next season.

Rum and Cokes and Bahama Mamas in Atlantis for Memorial weekend. Bimini for July 4th

**fly fisher** · 05-13-10, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

My last play of the year will be tonights 1H OVER 99 Cavs/Celtic for one unit.

I hit 60% this year on my total NBA plays and over 60% in the playoff. I hit both of my goals and will call it a night after tonight.

Good luck to everyone on their plays the rest of the playoffs. I will be back next year on here posting plays for the full year.

SweetJones, I also want to thank you for all of the help this year. Have a great year and I look forward to your posts in the future. Take care, good luck, and I wish you happiness in all that you do.

**sweetjones55** · 05-13-10, 11:45 AM

Appreciate all the kind word guys.. It's been fun this year.. Absolutely no need to thank me for anything, I love doing this

**smcc716** · 05-13-10, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Appreciate all the kind word guys.. It's been fun this year.. Absolutely no need to thank me for anything, I love doing this

Thanks SJ for all of the advice and points!! Good luck this evening!!

**No coincidences** · 05-13-10, 11:54 AM

I've learned so much from you, SJ. Your insight and picks the rest of the NBA season will be missed.

Thanks for the patience and effort!

**Handjuice** · 05-13-10, 12:16 PM

Your stopping after tonight? I think there's still some god money to be made with the Suns/Lakers series. Oh well, people have to do what's right by them. Thanks for the insights anyway and good luck in your future endeavors.