Sj55 nba playoff picks

**ten_lost_monkeys** · 04-29-10, 12:46 AM

Hey sweetjones, do you bet soccer as well?

**ten_lost_monkeys** · 04-29-10, 12:47 AM

Any early leans on tomorrow's game sj55?

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Nice analysis. The Mavs actually have more weapons than the Spurs, but the Spurs have the ultimate mismatch on the floor. Hill and Parker can both abuse Jason Kidd. On a positive note for the Mavs, Caron Butler is heating up at the right time, and no one in the NBA can guard Butler 1 on 1 when he's on his game.

The Spurs really need to play efficient half court ball in this game and not try and crash the offensive glass too much, cuz when Blair and Duncan are in there they sometimes go for too many ORebounds and thats basically free transition points for a team like the Mavs. Spurs have been pounding the O glass, but what's going to happen if those second chance tip ins don't fall?

I think it'll be a tight one this is a tough game to cap; the 4th quarter Over will be solid especially if its tight going in (obvious fouls if "elmination game" comes into effect).

Good luck, nice write up.

In terms of playing efficient half court ball, the Spurs and Lakers are the cream of the crop in that category. I think the Spurs will simply just shoot a high % tomorrow and you can't run and get in transition when a team is scoring. Unless of course you are Phoenix/GS and run off made shots as well lol.

I just can't see Caron Butler playing the X-factor for the Mavericks and pulling this game off. He is brand new to the team and is actually having problems with the coach in this series, they didn't play him in a whole 2H in one of the games.

**Goat Milk** · 04-29-10, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

In terms of playing efficient half court ball, the Spurs and Lakers are the cream of the crop in that category. I think the Spurs will simply just shoot a high % tomorrow and you can't run and get in transition when a team is scoring. Unless of course you are Phoenix/GS and run off made shots as well lol.

Yeah that's really what it comes down to getting high percentage shots for the Spurs. but guys like Blair are not disciplined enough to sometimes neglect going after the OR to get back on D instead. Pop has to make huge adjustments in this game- this guy is putting way to much faith in George Hill, expecting him to guard Caron Butler at times- it's never going to happen.

Do you happen to know what Duncan's record is game 6's up 3-2?

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Yeah that's really what it comes down to getting high percentage shots for the Spurs. but guys like Blair are not disciplined enough to sometimes neglect going after the OR to get back on D instead. Pop has to make huge adjustments in this game- this guy is putting way to much faith in George Hill, expecting him to guard Caron Butler at times- it's never going to happen.

Do you happen to know what Duncan's record is game 6's up 3-2?

The spurs are very good in close out games at home. The spurs are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS last 4.

**Goat Milk** · 04-29-10, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

No but I know it is downright filthy. What is the exact numbers?

I was hoping I can get that info from you

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 01:50 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

I was hoping I can get that info from you

I found it, I edited my post above with the #'s

**doctor_on_call** · 04-29-10, 01:52 AM

hey sj55, when ref assignments are out and joey crawford is one of the officials for the game, would it affect the play?
and what do you think about phx/por? do we still fade phx on tnt thursday? lol.

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by doctor_on_call

hey sj55, when ref assignments are out and joey crawford is one of the officials for the game, would it affect the play?
and what do you think about phx/por? do we still fade phx on tnt thursday? lol.

Joey Crawford would not affect this game for me. He knows that everbody knows about his feud and will be watching him under the microscope with Duncan so he will if anything give Duncan more calls than he should and call less against him. I am highly considering playing Portland. Public is loving Phoenix and the line has stayed flat at Portland -1. The Blazers have sick home court advantage and get a ton of calls. The only problem is that Phx has cashed more big public, chicken dinner plays than anyone this year.

**ed_lupeet** · 04-29-10, 02:22 AM

Will you play San Antonio and Portland tom? How many units?

**doctor_on_call** · 04-29-10, 02:26 AM

thanks man. gudluck.

**fly fisher** · 04-29-10, 07:15 AM

yesterday was a rough one for me. looking forward to your picks today. Good luck SweetJones

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by ed_lupeet

Will you play San Antonio and Portland tom? How many units?

Spurs ML -170 LOCKED HEAVY

The Dallas Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs tomorrow in game 6. The series is 3-1 SA. Dallas absolutely blew out the Spurs last game by 22 at home. Dallas also won the first game of the series at home, Dirk had the game of his career and shot like 87% and Dallas was only able to win by 6. I just think the Spurs have way too many weapons for Dallas and have a great defensive strategy on Dirk. They try their best to not let him get the ball and when he does they double very late in the shot clock forcing him to pass and have a player shoot a rush shot or forcing him to shoot a bad shot.

The line opened at -3 and with split betting on both sides the line has gone up to -3.5, a good sign for the favorite. San Antonio is highly undervalued coming into the playoffs. They have gotten a bad wrap as an old team but they really do have a good mixture of youth and veterans. They really started gelling well at the end of the year when it matters. They got solid young players in George Hill, Dejuan Blair, and Matt Bonner. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are at the top of their games as well. Tim Duncan is old but he is still a very solid PF who has a great feel for the game. They have IMO the best coach in the NBA in Greg Popovich.

For all you trend lovers, Spurs are 9-2 SU, 8-2-1 ATS in home games immediately following an SU road loss.

San Antonio is at home and they obviously want to close this out at home. I think the refs will favor the Spurs at home in the playoffs like they always have and this series ends tomorrow, Spurs in 6.

I am playing this game for 5 units. My scale is generally 1-5 units with rare 10-15 unit plays on of the year kind of plays.

**paulnikolo** · 04-29-10, 08:18 AM

SJ! what about the phoenix/portland game?

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by paulnikolo

SJ! what about the phoenix/portland game?

I am highly considering playing Portland. Public is loving Phoenix and the line has stayed flat at Portland -1. The Blazers have sick home court advantage and get a ton of calls. The only problem is that Phx has cashed more big public, chicken dinner plays than anyone this year.

**fixedgames** · 04-29-10, 08:30 AM

SJ~ Thanks for the tip. Hope we hit tonight!

**paulnikolo** · 04-29-10, 08:38 AM

thanks sj! goodluck on our plays tonight

**ed_lupeet** · 04-29-10, 10:40 AM

Good luck with your plays. Go Ptb and SAS

**jonblayze8** · 04-29-10, 01:03 PM

hey sj, you think the line movement will come down from 4.5 for the spurs later on today?

**AmpleGamble** · 04-29-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Caron Butler is heating up at the right time, and no one in the NBA can guard Butler 1 on 1 when he's on his game.

Do you really believe this Goat? Or is this a bit of an exaggeration to get the point across that he's very hard to guard when he gets hot...?

**phillybadboy** · 04-29-10, 01:36 PM

good luck sweet

**thechaoz** · 04-29-10, 01:51 PM

Wow it's -200 Spurs at one of my books now. Might have to see if more action comes in on the Mavericks side.

**t-wizzle** · 04-29-10, 06:46 PM

Nice to see you're on spurs ML too, good luck

**Goat Milk** · 04-29-10, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by AmpleGamble

Do you really believe this Goat? Or is this a bit of an exaggeration to get the point across that he's very hard to guard when he gets hot...?

yes. Butler will never struggle to get a shot off against anyone. He can get to his spot with ease, just a matter of his shot falling.

Good luck SJ- My niece broke my laptop 2 hours ago couldn't get my Spurs bet in, I don't even know what to say to this girl right now, fvckin $1200 laptop lost all of my documents

**tealish** · 04-29-10, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

yes. Butler will never struggle to get a shot off against anyone. He can get to his spot with ease, just a matter of his shot falling. Good luck SJ- My niece broke my laptop 2 hours ago couldn't get my Spurs bet in, I don't even know what to say to this girl right now, fvckin $1200 laptop lost all of my documents

lol...tough break goat

**phillybadboy** · 04-29-10, 09:21 PM

hey sweet, i like to bet favorites, whats a good book for that?

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Spurs ML -170 LOCKED BIG WINNER!!! The Dallas Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs tomorrow in game 6. The series is 3-1 SA. Dallas absolutely blew out the Spurs last game by 22 at home. Dallas also won the first game of the series at home, Dirk had the game of his career and shot like 87% and Dallas was only able to win by 6. I just think the Spurs have way too many weapons for Dallas and have a great defensive strategy on Dirk. They try their best to not let him get the ball and when he does they double very late in the shot clock forcing him to pass and have a player shoot a rush shot or forcing him to shoot a bad shot. The line opened at -3 and with split betting on both sides the line has gone up to -3.5, a good sign for the favorite. San Antonio is highly undervalued coming into the playoffs. They have gotten a bad wrap as an old team but they really do have a good mixture of youth and veterans. They really started gelling well at the end of the year when it matters. They got solid young players in George Hill, Dejuan Blair, and Matt Bonner. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are at the top of their games as well. Tim Duncan is old but he is still a very solid PF who has a great feel for the game. They have IMO the best coach in the NBA in Greg Popovich. For all you trend lovers, Spurs are 9-2 SU, 8-2-1 ATS in home games immediately following an SU road loss. San Antonio is at home and they obviously want to close this out at home. I think the refs will favor the Spurs at home in the playoffs like they always have and this series ends tomorrow, Spurs in 6.

BIG WINNER on the Spurs!!! Yet another perfect night for me, went 1-0 . 18-4-1 my last 23 plays (82%). Fifth PERFECT night in the last 8 nights. 49-22-1 (69%) my last 72 plays. 164-109-4 (60.1%) total NBA record.

**fly fisher** · 04-29-10, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

BIG WINNER on the Spurs!!! Yet another perfect night for me, went 1-0 . 18-4-1 my last 23 plays (82%). Fifth PERFECT night in the last 8 nights. 49-22-1 (69%) my last 72 plays. 164-109-4 (60.1%) total NBA record.

Thanks again SweetJones. My thanks and some points, you are a class act.

**cruyff** · 04-29-10, 10:06 PM

Great work you're doing here SJ.

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by fly fisher

Thanks again SweetJones. My thanks and some points, you are a class act.

Originally posted by cruyff

Great work you're doing here SJ.

**xelaneyugn** · 04-29-10, 10:36 PM

great call once again

**sweetjones55** · 04-29-10, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by xelaneyugn

great call once again

**doctor_on_call** · 04-29-10, 11:10 PM

and sweetjones does it again.

what is a sweetjones anyway? lol.

**tealish** · 04-30-10, 12:33 AM

Great call, SJ

**killersweet** · 04-30-10, 07:34 AM

Another winner. you are simply kicking some serious A$$. Keep up the good work