Sj55 nba playoff picks

**ron8698** · 04-16-10, 02:28 PM

BOL sweetjones

**fly fisher** · 04-16-10, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I will have some strong leans up today, they are still only strong leans because I want to see the reffing assignments which won't be out til tomorrow. I'll be back today with some writeups.

dude you know I will be checkign out what you come up with. good luck hope we all tear it up in the playoffs.

**sportfan** · 04-16-10, 05:24 PM

looking foward to ur writeups bol man

**sweetjones55** · 04-16-10, 05:30 PM

I am just going to wait til tomorrow at 9AM to post my writeups so that I can take a look at all the reffing assignments.

**sweetjones55** · 04-16-10, 11:12 PM

Heat +4.5 -120 LOCKED

The Heat/Celtics game is very interesting. I just really think that Vegas putting out this line at this number is very telling. Boston has beaten the Heat 5 straight times. Boston was favored by 5.5, 6, and 7 their last 3 games at home. So what does Vegas do admist all this domination over the Heat? They give tomorrows line out at Heat +5, the lowest line ever. Not only that then they go and move the line in reverse down to Heat +4? The Heat won 9 of their last ten coming into the playoffs and I really like the way they are gelling right now. Boston is just a complete mess. They are 3-7 last 10 at home and if anyone thinks that they are just going to be able to right the ship just because it's playoff times I think they are crazy. Who is going to stop Wade from getting into the lane and causing havoc? Ray Allen? Paul Pierce? I don't think so.

Dick Bavetta is going to be reffing this game and he strongly favors ROAD TEAMS. The road team ATS is 36-23 in games he refs.

EDIT: Interesting quote I just read: Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo is battling flu-like symptoms and the team sent him home from Friday's practice session, but he is expected to play in Saturday's Game 1 against Miami.
"Yeah, [Rondo is] pretty bad," admitted coach Doc Rivers. "[Glen Davis] missed [Thursday's session], he's been sick, so whatever Tony has, it's spread around the team right now. Rondo, we had him do film, then we did a walkthrough and then we told him go home.
"He's going to play. I don't know how he's going to feel. I don't anticipate him feeling great, he's throwing up and everything else last night and all day today. I know we sent him to the hospital to do IV work and stuff like that. other than that, it is what it is."

**sweetjones55** · 04-16-10, 11:14 PM

Jazz +6.5 -125 LOCKED

I haven't seen any killer instinct from Devner since the all-star break. They could barely beat the Lakers without Kobe with LA on B2B playing their 4th game in 5 days. The Nuggets needed a miracle to win that game at home by 2. Also Utah is used to playing in that thin air. I think the Jazz could easily take game one of this series and put Denver on their toes.

The public is pounding Denver right now and the line has not moved. The line did shoot up momentarily to +5.5 but the sharps shot it right back down to +5. The reason I say sharps did this is because your average Joe is not betting on the game 24 hours in advance, just my opinion but I think it makes sense.

The Jazz did play in Denver this year already on 1/17. The line was Jazz +7 and with this line coming out at Jazz +5 this time around I think it is very telling of what is to come.

Joe Crawford is reffing this game. He is the 8th best ref in the NBA for road teams ATS, 34-23. Greg Willard is the 10th best ref for road teams ats, 36-27. Zarba is the 17th best ref for road teams. Mind you guys that there are 67 refs.

**sweetjones55** · 04-16-10, 11:14 PM

Under 186.5 ATL/MIL LOCKED

I am looking at this Milwaukee/Atlanta total right now. These two teams havee gone OVER their last 8 games against each other. What does Vegas do admist these teams constantly killing OVERS? They go out and give out the lowest total in their last 8 matchups at 186.5. This is a while NINE points less than their average total of 195 their last 8 games. I am loving the UNDER in this game. The total opened up at 188.5 and with the public pounding the over the total dropped to 186.5, 2.5 points of HUGE Reverse line movement. Vegas is just begging for that OVER money. I am not going to give it to them.

**sweetjones55** · 04-16-10, 11:15 PM

Saturdays Final Card

Heat +4.5 -120 LOCKED BIG
Under 186.5 ATL/MIL LOCKED BIG
Jazz +6.5 -125 LOCKED

**trojanman** · 04-16-10, 11:56 PM

I'm following

been waiting for the playoffs and your write ups.....let's do this!

**tjaajt11** · 04-16-10, 11:59 PM

yeahhh

**tjaajt11** · 04-17-10, 12:00 AM

not badd

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 12:29 AM

I am loving the Spurs 1H +2.5 and Spurs +4.5. No team in the NBA was worse ATS than Dallas was as a home favorite. The Spurs are an old team but this is the first game of the series so I think they will have enough in the tank to get this win. I really like SA 1H since SA is just downright nasty in the 1H and Dallas always comes out flat in the 1st half at home hence their terrible ATS record at home. Dallas is actually 37-41 SU in the 2nd quarter, this is very rare for a damn good team to have a below .500 record in any quarter. Public is on the Mavs 66% and the line has stayed flat at +4.5 Spurs since it came out.

**dknight734** · 04-17-10, 12:53 AM

love the under pick

**sportfan** · 04-17-10, 01:58 AM

nice writeups , liking Heat & Jazz myself , not sure about Spurs though

**peterpan19** · 04-17-10, 04:26 AM

GL
like the bulls too, and take a look at orl, will be a blowout, should also go over

**fly fisher** · 04-17-10, 08:30 AM

Thanks SJ, great write ups. Will check back later to see if you add more info, then get my picks in today before going to watch spring football in college

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

Thanks SJ, great write ups. Will check back later to see if you add more info, then get my picks in today before going to watch spring football in college

I am adding more info, and it's mostly good. The reffing assignments just came out, a lot support my plays.

**doctor_on_call** · 04-17-10, 08:38 AM

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 08:44 AM

We got Bavetta who is one of the best refs in the NBA for road teams ATS. He is 36-24 for road teams ATS. Derosa and Malloy favor home teams but Bavetta loves to take over for these playoff games.

As for the Utah game, we couldn't have asked for better refs. All three refs heavily favor the road team. We got Crawford, Zarba and Willard who have these records ATS for road teams 34-23 36-27 37-31

The three refs combined for the Under in the ATL/MIL are 97-94 for the under so slight edge to the under in that game.

**mart59a** · 04-17-10, 10:37 AM

Thanks!
Good work SJ

**vinwon8** · 04-17-10, 10:57 AM

Where did you get Utah +6.5 for -125?

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by vinwon8

Where did you get Utah +6.5 for -125?

Local book gives me point buys at -125, took it when they were at +5.5. 5Dimes had +6.5 -128 yesterday I believe

**shoebox** · 04-17-10, 11:11 AM

in the playoffs SJ

**vinwon8** · 04-17-10, 11:17 AM

Oh and by the way you give some great stats

these r the stats head to head UTAH IS 0-6-2 ATS LAST 8!!!! THE FAV. IS 23-10-3 ATS LAST 36!!! don't think your 3 refs. will matter anyway best of luck,you'll need it

**lovetogamble** · 04-17-10, 11:48 AM

Love the Jazz sweet. waiting to see if the line will go back up. @ +5 at my book now.

**nightlife32** · 04-17-10, 11:55 AM

Thanks again Sweetjones your a beast!

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by vinwon8

Oh and by the way you give some great stats

these r the stats head to head UTAH IS 0-6-2 ATS LAST 8!!!! THE FAV. IS 23-10-3 ATS LAST 36!!! don't think your 3 refs. will matter anyway best of luck,you'll need it

LOL don't you understand that these stats are the reason I love Utah so much. Denver absolutely owns Utah yet the oddsmaker knows this and is still making making Utah such a small road-dog compared to the other road games with Denver. Try and take a wild guess why the oddsmakers are doing this my friend?

**fly fisher** · 04-17-10, 12:05 PM

I am riding with you on all three today. thanks SJ, lets get these.

**vinwon8** · 04-17-10, 12:44 PM

These r the odds on den. vs. utah this yr. 2-6-10 @utah den. +10 Push!! 1-17-10 @den. -7 Push!! 1-2-10 @utah den. +7.5 win by 10 cover by 17.5!! 10-28-09 @den. -5 win by 9!! AS you can see the home team was the fav. the only diff. utah was a bigger fav. You also say den. only beat the lakers by 2 without Kobe in den. What you failed to say is that den. beat the lakers in LA. by 13 without Melo. We could debate this match up all day, but thats why they play the game!!

**QUEST001** · 04-17-10, 12:51 PM

Best of luck on your plays SJ.. I'm on heat and cavs at this point..

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by vinwon8

These r the odds on den. vs. utah this yr. 2-6-10 @utah den. +10 Push!! 1-17-10 @den. -7 Push!! 1-2-10 @utah den. +7.5 win by 10 cover by 17.5!! 10-28-09 @den. -5 win by 9!! AS you can see the home team was the fav. the only diff. utah was a bigger fav. You also say den. only beat the lakers by 2 without Kobe in den. What you failed to say is that den. beat the lakers in LA. by 13 without Melo. We could debate this match up all day, but thats why they play the game!!

I took the Nuggets that day, value is almost always on the team without their superstar especially when the team is on the road. The Lakers overlooked the Nuggets that night because Melo was out, they thought it would be a walk in the part and didn't come out fired up and focused.

**streakyrocket22** · 04-17-10, 01:01 PM

Guys any thoughts on the OVER for CAVS/BULLS game? Im liking the over!

**QUEST001** · 04-17-10, 01:02 PM

Books inviting ATL over bettors. Did you notice that SJ?

**sweetjones55** · 04-17-10, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by streakyrocket22

Guys any thoughts on the OVER for CAVS/BULLS game? Im liking the over!

My advice is to take the UNDER or stay away. Shaq is back in the line up for the first time in a while and he will throw off the offensive synergy. He also slows down the game big time. These two teams have had a lot of time off and they could come out rusty in the 1st quarter.