Well I had a break even night last night going 1-1-1 yesterday but still have only had one losing night in the last 11 nights in the NBA. I am expecting a big day today in the NBA. Going to take a look at all of the games now and be back with my leans/plays.
I am also liking the Bulls tonight at home vs the Bobcats. The line opened at -2 and quickly went to -3/-3.5 with only 52% on the Bulls. This ain't reverse line movement but it's just as good as it for me. The Bulls are fully healthy and it showed last night as they won on the road by 8, a pretty big feat for a team that is 15-23 on the road. Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah all played well last night and the Bulls are a much better home team than on the road.
The Bobcats are actually worse on the road with a 11-26 record on the road. They won last night by one in OT and now have to go B2B and beat a team in the playoff hunt. This is just a very bad situation for Charlotte and the big 1.5 point line movement so early on is indicative of this. The Bobcats played horribly offensively last night shooting a pathetic 37%. I could easily see them shoot worse tonight on B2B tired from OT.
Bulls -3 BIG LOCKED
Just looking at the lines the Bucks sticks out big time. They have NEVER been favored against Phoenix going back ten games. Phoenix has beaten Milwaukee in nine of the last ten games so this one is a real head scratcher. Also Milwaukee went to OT last night, which makes this line even stranger as teams coming off OT usually aren't too hot the next night.
Milwaukee is favored because the Suns are on their 5th straight road game in seven days and because they are also on B2B coming off a blowout win over Chicago. I have a feeling that this could be a major trap game for Phoenix. The public has raked it in taking Phoenix lately but I think Vegas gets some money back tonight.
The Bucks with a fully healthy squad have been nothing but money at home lately. Andrew Bogut got hurt against Philly and didn't play against the Heat and they ended up dropping those two home games. With him healthy though they are 10-0 SU their last ten at home with big wins over Cleveland, Atlanta, Memphis, Utah, Boston and Charlotte.
The line movement looks promising for Milwauke as their really hasn't been much. The line opened at -2 or -2.5 everywhere and with the public pounding of Phoenix the line has stayed put right at -2/-2.5 everywhere. I would love to see every site move to -2.5.
The Bucks are the best team in the NBA ATS on B2B days, 15-3. They are also one of the best teams in the NBA ATS at 47-26.
Bucks -2 LOCKED
I can't believe I took so long to see this one. The Heat go to Minnesota tonight. The Heat are coming off a tough fought OT win against Indiana. They expended a TON of energy as they had to overcome a 10 point deficit to win last night. Prior to last nights game, the largerst deficit at half the Heat had overcome all year was just one point twice. The Heat are very average on the road, have done well lately on the road but mostly a result of playing bad teams. I think it will be very tough for Miami to go on B2B off OT and cover a 7 point spread on the road. They would almost have to win by double digits to cover this spread.
Minnesota already won @ Heat by 3 this year so they should play with confidence knowing that they can beat this team having already done it. Also, bad teams win in bunches and the T-Wolves played great last game spanking the Kings. I think this one will go down to the wire and the T-Wolves should cover with the spread. T-Wolves are 3-1 SU last 4 vs Miami and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs Miami.
Jermaine O'neal is doubtful and Michael Beasley is banged up and is probable with an abdominal injury. T-Wolves are fully loaded tonight.
T-Wolves +7 LOCKED
I am also leaning Mavericks -3.5 at home. I just think that Vegas is sick and tired of letting people fade Dallas at home and cash in on a nightly basis. This line just seems off. Dallas is coming off an embarassing home loss to Orlando and should be fired up on saturday night at home. OKC won at philly and at boston, a controversial game where supposedly OKC was getting every call. I think the refs will hold their whistles a little bit and give the majority of the calls to Dallas. Dallas has only lost two straight at home all year. They lost to Utah and then followed it up with a loss to the Lakers. I don't think they let this one slip away today.
Mavericks ML -150 LOCKED
I am also liking the Bulls tonight at home vs the Bobcats. The line opened at -2 and quickly went to -3/-3.5 with only 52% on the Bulls. This ain't reverse line movement but it's just as good as it for me. The Bulls are fully healthy and it showed last night as they won on the road by 8, a pretty big feat for a team that is 15-23 on the road. Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah all played well last night and the Bulls are a much better home team than on the road.
The Bobcats are actually worse on the road with a 11-26 record on the road. They won last night by one in OT and now have to go B2B and beat a team in the playoff hunt. This is just a very bad situation for Charlotte and the big 1.5 point line movement so early on is indicative of this. The Bobcats played horribly offensively last night shooting a pathetic 37%. I could easily see them shoot worse tonight on B2B tired from OT.
Bulls -3 BIG LOCKED
Just looking at the lines the Bucks sticks out big time. They have NEVER been favored against Phoenix going back ten games. Phoenix has beaten Milwaukee in nine of the last ten games so this one is a real head scratcher. Also Milwaukee went to OT last night, which makes this line even stranger as teams coming off OT usually aren't too hot the next night.
Milwaukee is favored because the Suns are on their 5th straight road game in seven days and because they are also on B2B coming off a blowout win over Chicago. I have a feeling that this could be a major trap game for Phoenix. The public has raked it in taking Phoenix lately but I think Vegas gets some money back tonight.
The Bucks with a fully healthy squad have been nothing but money at home lately. Andrew Bogut got hurt against Philly and didn't play against the Heat and they ended up dropping those two home games. With him healthy though they are 10-0 SU their last ten at home with big wins over Cleveland, Atlanta, Memphis, Utah, Boston and Charlotte.
The line movement looks promising for Milwauke as their really hasn't been much. The line opened at -2 or -2.5 everywhere and with the public pounding of Phoenix the line has stayed put right at -2/-2.5 everywhere. I would love to see every site move to -2.5.
The Bucks are the best team in the NBA ATS on B2B days, 15-3. They are also one of the best teams in the NBA ATS at 47-26.
Bucks -2 LOCKED
I can't believe I took so long to see this one. The Heat go to Minnesota tonight. The Heat are coming off a tough fought OT win against Indiana. They expended a TON of energy as they had to overcome a 10 point deficit to win last night. Prior to last nights game, the largerst deficit at half the Heat had overcome all year was just one point twice. The Heat are very average on the road, have done well lately on the road but mostly a result of playing bad teams. I think it will be very tough for Miami to go on B2B off OT and cover a 7 point spread on the road. They would almost have to win by double digits to cover this spread.
Minnesota already won @ Heat by 3 this year so they should play with confidence knowing that they can beat this team having already done it. Also, bad teams win in bunches and the T-Wolves played great last game spanking the Kings. I think this one will go down to the wire and the T-Wolves should cover with the spread. T-Wolves are 3-1 SU last 4 vs Miami and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs Miami.
Jermaine O'neal is doubtful and Michael Beasley is banged up and is probable with an abdominal injury. T-Wolves are fully loaded tonight.
T-Wolves +7 LOCKED
I am also leaning Mavericks -3.5 at home. I just think that Vegas is sick and tired of letting people fade Dallas at home and cash in on a nightly basis. This line just seems off. Dallas is coming off an embarassing home loss to Orlando and should be fired up on saturday night at home. OKC won at philly and at boston, a controversial game where supposedly OKC was getting every call. I think the refs will hold their whistles a little bit and give the majority of the calls to Dallas. Dallas has only lost two straight at home all year. They lost to Utah and then followed it up with a loss to the Lakers. I don't think they let this one slip away today.
Mavericks ML -150 LOCKED
sj bounce back strong
. I like the mavs but they are so inconsistent lately, meanwhile the thunder have been on a roll. They are also a great road team, but they havent beat the mavs away in their last 9
