Tough break on the first two. I hope the Rockets can pull it out for you..I have no idea what's wrong with them lately.
Goat Plays
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doublecSBR High Roller
- 12-16-09
- 196
#106Comment -
LiarGameSBR Wise Guy
- 02-05-10
- 565
#107Like the Pistons tonight too. Hope they get this.Comment -
doublecSBR High Roller
- 12-16-09
- 196
#108Tough luck..just a night for the favorites. These things happen.Comment -
NBAStatsSBR Wise Guy
- 01-18-10
- 665
#110Sorry buddy, but WASH doesn't get a thumbs up either. Your night looks about like mine.Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#1122/25
No PlaysComment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#1132/26
chi -3.5 (1x)
tor +5.5 (2x)
clips +9 (1x)
phil +11 (1x)Comment -
doublecSBR High Roller
- 12-16-09
- 196
#114Not too bad! I still wish OT wasn't counted ATS, which would have given you a Toronto win (which was the right call). Would have cost you Chi, though, I suppose.Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#116Ain't it the way. Forgot about the morning games and won them both for +3 units. Woe is me.
2/27
chi +3 (3x)
hou +9.5 (2x)
port -4 (7x)
gs -4 (1x)
Comment -
HCBooneSBR Wise Guy
- 01-18-10
- 596
#1177x on Portland. That makes me a little bit more comfortable.
BOLComment -
doublecSBR High Roller
- 12-16-09
- 196
#118Nice call on the big Blazers pick!Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#1202/28
wash -1 (8x)
mil +8.5 (2x)
mia +12.5 (2x)
tor +8.5 (2x)
clips +4 (2x)
no +8 (1x)Comment -
doublecSBR High Roller
- 12-16-09
- 196
#121Looking like a good day for units, even if the win % isn't great. Gonna have to start buying into these 8 unit plays.Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#1233/1 (Last Day)
phil +4 (1x)
dal +3 (2x)
ny +11 (1x)
tor +6 (2x)
la +6.5 (1x)Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#124...Comment -
AzNDooMSBR MVP
- 01-29-08
- 1611
#125Thanks, glad to see your posting the units, easier to track. Thanks bud. Im with you on 1 of your 5 picks (Dallas). Best of luck on the other ones.Comment -
WilforthRestricted User
- 05-10-08
- 16309
#127Better luck today.Comment -
SpreadSniperSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-09
- 6125
#128wats up T... so that was the last day for that testing round... whats going on next?Comment -
TGoatRestricted User
- 08-07-09
- 612
#129The two-week test is over, and it's time for an accounting. First of all, the results for the actual system betting every game at one unit per game:
55-57 (49%) -7.01u
Strong plays (formerly) 10-7 (59%) +2.09
So, the system as a whole performed poorly over the two-week period. (Is it regressing? No idea.) One of it's worst performances yet. Overall for the season the system is at:
415-346 (55%) +31.65u
Strong plays are 89-58 (61%) +22.9u
Breaking it down even further into the four following categories we have:
Home/Dogs 75-67 (53%) +1.25u
Home/Favs 116-114, (50%) -8.44u
Road/Dogs 178-135, (57%) +26.98u
Road/Favs 46-30, (61%) +11.86u
So, taking the two strongest categories, road dogs and road favorites combined you have:
224-165 (57.5%) +39u, which is 7.35u better than all games combined.
Here's the breakdown for the posted games during the recent two-week test:
27-33-2, (45%) -5.22u
Home/Dogs 8-6
Home/Favs 2-2
Road/Dogs 20-18-1
Road/Favs 4-1 (Again, road favorites seem to do the best)
Broken down by units:
1x 11-13-2
2x 4-7
3x 8-12
4x
5x
6x 1-0
7x 2-0
8x 1-1
All of the plays 6x and above were 4-1. 4 and 5x had no plays and everthing 3x and below were 21-29-2
(42%) -8u.
Conclusion:
Disappointing test, but an insufficient sample to assume anything meaningful. There do seem to be some positive trends, but my gut feel is to keep parts of it and shelve the rest.
As far as assigning units to plays, I still don't have a good idea how to go about doing that. It seems that the very high unit plays, as well as my "strong plays" from previous tests appear to warrant extra units, but all of the smaller plays would probably be well served just sticking with one unit or not playing them at all.
How many units to assign to the higher value plays is still something that needs to be tinkered with. Personally I don't feel that 6, 7 and 8x units on a play is sound management, maybe 1-3 or 1-5 is more realistic, but testing things this way did give me some ideas to work worth.
I don't see much reason to continue with this--not in its present form anyway. True, it didn't lose that much for such a bad percentage record, but I think there are better ways to go. I don't know what I'll do next. Got a few ideas.
Thanks to all who followed along.Comment
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