Goat Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • doublec
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-16-09
    • 196

    #106
    Tough break on the first two. I hope the Rockets can pull it out for you..I have no idea what's wrong with them lately.
    Comment
    • LiarGame
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-05-10
      • 565

      #107
      Like the Pistons tonight too. Hope they get this.
      Comment
      • doublec
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-16-09
        • 196

        #108
        Tough luck..just a night for the favorites. These things happen.
        Comment
        • TGoat
          Restricted User
          • 08-07-09
          • 612

          #109
          Originally posted by tgoat
          wash +1 (3x)
          no +6 (3x)
          hou +4 (3x)
          okl +4 (3x)
          phil +7.5 (1x)
          det +4 (3x)
          0-6, -16u

          19-23-1, -8.15u
          Comment
          • NBAStats
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-18-10
            • 665

            #110
            Sorry buddy, but WASH doesn't get a thumbs up either. Your night looks about like mine.
            Comment
            • TGoat
              Restricted User
              • 08-07-09
              • 612

              #111
              Originally posted by NBAStats
              Sorry buddy, but WASH doesn't get a thumbs up either. Your night looks about like mine.
              Thanks. I fixed it. Humiliating night.
              Comment
              • TGoat
                Restricted User
                • 08-07-09
                • 612

                #112
                2/25

                No Plays
                Comment
                • TGoat
                  Restricted User
                  • 08-07-09
                  • 612

                  #113
                  2/26

                  chi -3.5 (1x)
                  tor +5.5 (2x)
                  clips +9 (1x)
                  phil +11 (1x)
                  Comment
                  • doublec
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-16-09
                    • 196

                    #114
                    Not too bad! I still wish OT wasn't counted ATS, which would have given you a Toronto win (which was the right call). Would have cost you Chi, though, I suppose.
                    Comment
                    • TGoat
                      Restricted User
                      • 08-07-09
                      • 612

                      #115
                      Originally posted by tgoat
                      2/26

                      chi -3.5 (1x)
                      Tor +5.5 (2x)
                      clips +9 (1x)
                      phil +11 (1x)
                      2-2, -1.18u

                      21-25-1, -9.33u
                      Comment
                      • TGoat
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-07-09
                        • 612

                        #116
                        Ain't it the way. Forgot about the morning games and won them both for +3 units. Woe is me.

                        2/27

                        chi +3 (3x)
                        hou +9.5 (2x)
                        port -4 (7x)
                        gs -4 (1x)
                        Comment
                        • HCBoone
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 596

                          #117
                          7x on Portland. That makes me a little bit more comfortable.

                          BOL
                          Comment
                          • doublec
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-16-09
                            • 196

                            #118
                            Nice call on the big Blazers pick!
                            Comment
                            • TGoat
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-07-09
                              • 612

                              #119
                              Originally posted by TGoat
                              Ain't it the way. Forgot about the morning games and won them both for +3 units. Woe is me.

                              2/27

                              chi +3 (3x)
                              hou +9.5 (2x)
                              port -4 (7x)
                              gs -4 (1x)

                              2-2, +2.28u

                              23-27-1, -7.05u
                              Comment
                              • TGoat
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-07-09
                                • 612

                                #120
                                2/28

                                wash -1 (8x)
                                mil +8.5 (2x)
                                mia +12.5 (2x)
                                tor +8.5 (2x)
                                clips +4 (2x)
                                no +8
                                (1x)
                                Comment
                                • doublec
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-16-09
                                  • 196

                                  #121
                                  Looking like a good day for units, even if the win % isn't great. Gonna have to start buying into these 8 unit plays.
                                  Comment
                                  • TGoat
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 08-07-09
                                    • 612

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by TGoat
                                    2/28

                                    wash -1 (8x)
                                    mil +8.5 (2x)
                                    mia +12.5 (2x)
                                    tor +8.5 (2x)
                                    clips +4 (2x)
                                    no +8
                                    (1x) P

                                    2-3-1, +3.1u

                                    25-30-2, -3.95u
                                    Comment
                                    • TGoat
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 08-07-09
                                      • 612

                                      #123
                                      3/1 (Last Day )

                                      phil +4 (1x)
                                      dal +3 (2x)
                                      ny +11 (1x)
                                      tor +6 (2x)
                                      la +6.5 (1x)
                                      Comment
                                      • TGoat
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 08-07-09
                                        • 612

                                        #124
                                        ...
                                        Comment
                                        • AzNDooM
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-29-08
                                          • 1611

                                          #125
                                          Thanks, glad to see your posting the units, easier to track. Thanks bud. Im with you on 1 of your 5 picks (Dallas). Best of luck on the other ones.
                                          Comment
                                          • TGoat
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 08-07-09
                                            • 612

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by TGoat
                                            3/1 (Last Day )

                                            phil +4 (1x)
                                            dal +3 (2x)
                                            ny +11 (1x)
                                            tor +6 (2x)
                                            la +6.5 (1x)
                                            2-3, -1.27u

                                            27-33-2, (45%) -5.22u
                                            Comment
                                            • Wilforth
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 05-10-08
                                              • 16309

                                              #127
                                              Better luck today.
                                              Comment
                                              • SpreadSniper
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-17-09
                                                • 6125

                                                #128
                                                wats up T... so that was the last day for that testing round... whats going on next?
                                                Comment
                                                • TGoat
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 08-07-09
                                                  • 612

                                                  #129
                                                  The two-week test is over, and it's time for an accounting. First of all, the results for the actual system betting every game at one unit per game:

                                                  55-57 (49%) -7.01u

                                                  Strong plays (formerly) 10-7 (59%) +2.09

                                                  So, the system as a whole performed poorly over the two-week period. (Is it regressing? No idea.) One of it's worst performances yet. Overall for the season the system is at:

                                                  415-346 (55%) +31.65u

                                                  Strong plays are 89-58 (61%) +22.9u

                                                  Breaking it down even further into the four following categories we have:

                                                  Home/Dogs 75-67 (53%) +1.25u
                                                  Home/Favs 116-114, (50%) -8.44u
                                                  Road/Dogs 178-135, (57%) +26.98u
                                                  Road/Favs 46-30, (61%) +11.86u

                                                  So, taking the two strongest categories, road dogs and road favorites combined you have:

                                                  224-165 (57.5%) +39u, which is 7.35u better than all games combined.


                                                  Here's the breakdown for the posted games during the recent two-week test:

                                                  27-33-2, (45%) -5.22u

                                                  Home/Dogs 8-6
                                                  Home/Favs 2-2
                                                  Road/Dogs 20-18-1
                                                  Road/Favs 4-1 (Again, road favorites seem to do the best)

                                                  Broken down by units:

                                                  1x 11-13-2
                                                  2x 4-7
                                                  3x 8-12
                                                  4x
                                                  5x
                                                  6x 1-0
                                                  7x 2-0
                                                  8x 1-1

                                                  All of the plays 6x and above were 4-1. 4 and 5x had no plays and everthing 3x and below were 21-29-2

                                                  (42%) -8u.

                                                  Conclusion:

                                                  Disappointing test, but an insufficient sample to assume anything meaningful. There do seem to be some positive trends, but my gut feel is to keep parts of it and shelve the rest.

                                                  As far as assigning units to plays, I still don't have a good idea how to go about doing that. It seems that the very high unit plays, as well as my "strong plays" from previous tests appear to warrant extra units, but all of the smaller plays would probably be well served just sticking with one unit or not playing them at all.

                                                  How many units to assign to the higher value plays is still something that needs to be tinkered with. Personally I don't feel that 6, 7 and 8x units on a play is sound management, maybe 1-3 or 1-5 is more realistic, but testing things this way did give me some ideas to work worth.

                                                  I don't see much reason to continue with this--not in its present form anyway. True, it didn't lose that much for such a bad percentage record, but I think there are better ways to go. I don't know what I'll do next. Got a few ideas.

                                                  Thanks to all who followed along.
                                                  Comment
                                                  SBR Contests
                                                  Collapse
                                                  Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                  Collapse
                                                  Working...