Nice call on Toronto, by the way.
-
Comment -
2/19
Den -5.5 (8x)
phil +3.5 (3x)
mil -1 (1x)
dal +6.5 (3x)
ind +4.5 (1x)
tor -2 (8x)
mia +6.5 (3x)
bos +3 (3x)
gs +5 (3x)
6-3, +7.1U
13-11, +3.94UComment -
My system projects a final score for each team and then subtracts (or adds) the pointspread to the difference.
EX 1:
Projection:
Team A 105
Team B 95
Spread: Team A -4
Since I have Team A winning by ten, you now subtract the line of 4 and I have Team A winning by 6. Team A is the play.
EX 2:
Team A 99
Team B 96
Spread: Team B +4
Now my play would be on Team B: projected final score Team B 100 Team A 99.
Of course there is a lot more to it than that. Coming up with what is actually going to be a play and determining bet sizes goes a lot deeper, but if I were to bet every game for 1 Unit, (as I have in the past) in a nutshell, this is how the sides would be chosen.Comment -
Hi goatComment -
This is why I asked about accounting for b2b's (and also injuries, etc). You stated that you depend on the linesmaker to properly adjust for these factors, which of course they attempt to do. When making your projections you aren't accounting for injuries, b2b's, etc - yet you are comparing a line that is adjusted for these factors to projections that aren't.
For instance the Toronto play last night probably wouldn't have been an 8u play for you with Bosh in the lineup. Let's say the line was 3.5 or 4 rather than 2. What would the unit play have been then? You probably used Toronto stats from all season to project their score and the opposition score, and those stats obviously include Bosh. However the line was adjusted from him being out.
A second example is the Denver game. You probably used Denver's stats from all year, which obviously include some back to backs. But what if Denver hadn't been on a back to back and the line was -9 (i pulled this from thin air for example purposes)- what would the unit play have been then?
My point is that your bigger unit plays are mostly going to be on teams with injured players, teams on b2b's, etc. Things that you don't account for that the linesmakers do are going to skew your plays to those that have variables that you don't account for that the lines do.
This isn't to down your system, as any math system will have limitations similar to these. Mine has the exact same issues, and I have found that my bigger plays are also on teams with injuries, on b2b's, etc. I haven't found a way to properly solve these issues, but tend to mostly stay away from big injury games or those games that have other factors that I can't account for.
If I had projected Denver last night, I would have liked it a little less with them coming off an OT and b2b. If I had projected Washington I would have liked it even more with the other team coming off an OT and b2b. If I had projected Toronto last night I would have liked it a little less with Bosh out. If I had projected the Nets I would have loved it even more with Bosh being out.
I think you probably get my drift, and you are likely aware of this anyway. Regardless I tailed your picks last night anyway, even though I was fully aware of the limitations that you run into. I appreciate your work and look forward to comparing once I have everything fully updated.Comment -
im sure you discussed this somewhere, so apologizes if this has been addressed. i know in the past you claimed to not understand why some of us make wagers that range substantially in unit size since you looked at it as an "8x" play having almost the same probability of winning as a 1x......but i see you are practicing weighted gambling now which i fully agree with.
what made you change your mind?Comment -
You are correct. You have found a flaw in my thinking. Rather than post what I did, I simply should have said, "I don't pay any attention to B2B, injuries, road trips, etc. I have no idea who "Bosh" or anyone else is for that matter, and I don't care."
That being said, the pointspread can change the play, especially when the numbers are close. At Denver -9 and Toronto -5, they both would still have been plays, but for how much I can't say without more information.
There are a lot of good cappers on this board who take things like B2B and injuries into consideration and get good results (and bad results). I'm pleased with the results I've obtained over a larger sample of games ignoring all of those factors, which leads me to believe that most of those things aren't all that important anyway. At least they don't seem to be that important as far as my system is concerned. Right or wrong, those seem to be the results.
How I am selecting games to actually play and unit sizes is a completely new approach for me. Without getting into specifics, Denver and Toronto could or perhaps could not have been large plays regardless of the injury situation. I am using something completely different to determine unit size, which is another reason I warned people not to tail. It tested well, but is basically unproven over a very large sample. However, I do think the logic is sound. But like anything else, my thinking could be flawed and my positive tests could be the results of short-term luck.For instance the Toronto play last night probably wouldn't have been an 8u play for you with Bosh in the lineup. Let's say the line was 3.5 or 4 rather than 2. What would the unit play have been then? You probably used Toronto stats from all season to project their score and the opposition score, and those stats obviously include Bosh. However the line was adjusted from him being out.
A second example is the Denver game. You probably used Denver's stats from all year, which obviously include some back to backs. But what if Denver hadn't been on a back to back and the line was -9 (i pulled this from thin air for example purposes)- what would the unit play have been then?
My point is that your bigger unit plays are mostly going to be on teams with injured players, teams on b2b's, etc. Things that you don't account for that the linesmakers do are going to skew your plays to those that have variables that you don't account for that the lines do.
But one thing has not changed. All of the plays are selected by my system the exact same way as before. Whether to make the play and how much to wager has changed--considerably.Comment -
The primary objection I had with the typical handicapper assigning unit size to various plays was the seemingly arbitrary manner in which it was done. Unless those doing things that way had incredible "gut instinct" as to how many units to assign to a given play, how were they coming up with their numbers? Was a 5X play 5X based on the merits or was it because the handicapper was having a losing day and trying to get even?
My method is based purely on math. My judgment does not enter into it, and it has no bearing on how I happen to be doing at the time.
If I were to assign units based on my "gut" (which I might try at some future point, but I have no idea how I would go about doing it), I have no idea where the ball would land.
Testing that type of procedure would be a nightmare as well, because I can't think of any logical way to apply a consistent approach over a large series of trials.
I changed my mind based on a discussion of Kelly wagering. I reference the thread that gave me those ideas for testing this method in post #1.Comment -
Nice day yesterday, BOL today goat!Comment -
2/10
wash/tor (no play)
okl/ny (no play)Comment -
phil +4.5 (1x)
ind +7.5 (1x)
char+3 (3x)
sac -1.5 (1x)Comment -
In order for this day to not be a complete disaster, Charlotte is going to have to pull it out.Comment -
2/21
Hou +2 (3x)Comment -
oh god, not you on hou.... i think I may take a week off shortly if I keep things up at this rate.Comment -
utah +1.5 (3x)
sac +9.5 (1x)Comment -
The "old" system went 7-2 today playing every game and is at 27-24 +.054U. Previous "strong" plays are at 7-3.
I went 1-2. I overslept for the Orlando game, and the Internet was down for the Detroit game. Zigging and zagging. Sheesh...
So far results are below expectations. I'm hoping next week things will pick up.Comment -
2/22
Two plays today
chi -2.5 (1x)
ind +9 (1x)Comment -
gl tonight.... lol @ leroy...Comment -
The line was +9.5 for Indiana at some books, so not a push for everybody.Comment -
2/23
min +8 (3x)
ny +9.5 (1x)
port-7.5 (6x)Comment -
pho +6.5 (1x)Comment -
Awesome job last night buddyComment -
yeah really. very nice jobComment -
Great night!
Comment -
2/24
wash +1 (3x)
no +6 (3x)
Comment -
just saw last nights plays now.... gj G... bol tonightComment -
hou +4 (3x)
okl +4 (3x)
phil +7.5 (1x)
det +4 (3x)Comment -
With you on Washington Leroy ! Good luck with the NO Saints too !Comment
