Goat Plays

[whatsgood5]

Also like the Clips but didn't play it. I believe I did go against Sac though.

[TGoat]

nj +11 (1x)
phil -2 (2x)
dal +4.5 (3x)
ny +6.5 (1x)
clips +7 (3x)
sac +5.5 (2x)
gs +13 (1x)

3-4, -5.36U

[TGoat]

Taking off for the night, here are the plays.

tor -7 (1x)
mia -6.5(1x)
utah -4(1x)
ind +4.5(2x)
min +5(3x)
hou +5.5(3x)
pho +4(1x)

[SpreadSniper]

I just do what I'm told.

forgot to check up on this one, and sorry about the loss... I was going to go BIG on them prior to tip, then saw your post..... Thats the only reason I was saying "no".... i was actually BEGGING for it, but as you said and as I know, numbers are numbers and thats what ya play...

P.S - I didnt go big

[TGoat]

tor -7 (1x)
mia -6.5(1x)
utah -4(1x)
ind +4.5(2x)
min +5(3x)
hou +5.5(3x)
pho +4(1x)

3-4, -.54U

6-8 -5.9U

[TGoat]

2/18

den +6.5 (3x) (even though I can get +7 in a few places right now; I'm sticking with Pinnacle lines)

lake (no-play)

[doublec]

I liked both of these plays. I think you'll be fine with Denver, although I hate when a good dog call goes into OT.

[TGoat]

2/18

den +6.5 (3x)

1-0 +2.73u

7-8 -3.17u

[azn624]

nice 1 today goat, bol the rest of the way

[TGoat]

nice 1 today goat, bol the rest of the way

Thanks. Tomorrow is a full slate, and the early look is there might be a lot of plays--and maybe a few "big" plays.

We'll see.

[NBAStats]

Got anything tonight Goat? I just got home and haven't gotten the chance to update my spreadsheets yet. I need someone to tail tonight

[TGoat]

2/19

Den -5.5 (8x)

[SpreadSniper]

wow - GL tonight bro.... what happened to 1-3x bets?

[NBAStats]

I'm curious as to whether or not you have an adjustment for b2b's? My formulas don't have one as I can't come up with a concrete number to account for that variable.

[TGoat]

wow - GL tonight bro.... what happened to 1-3x bets?

See post #1.

Tonight could possibly make me or break me. Just going with the numbers. During testing there were actually quite a few nights with multiple big plays.

[TGoat]

I'm curious as to whether or not you have an adjustment for b2b's? My formulas don't have one as I can't come up with a concrete number to account for that variable.

Nope. Nothing for B2B, injuries, OT, etc.

My system basically trusts the linemaker to properly adjust for those possibilities.

[NBAStats]

Nope. Nothing for B2B, injuries, OT, etc.

Same with mine. I don't like to pollute my math with my shitty capping.

[NBAStats]

And I went with Nugs for 2 dimes, and 2 dimes on Nugs first half as well. BOL to us both

[TGoat]

And I went with Nugs for 2 dimes, and 2 dimes on Nugs first half as well. BOL to us both

Wow, big bet. Hope you got -5.5, because it is now -6 across the board.

[TGoat]

phil +3.5 (3x)

[NBAStats]

Naw got it at 6, couldn't find it anywhere at 5.5.

[TGoat]

Naw got it at 6, couldn't find it anywhere at 5.5.

I certainly hope you didn't make this bet solely on my recommendation. I warned people about tailing in post #1.

The reason being is that I expect larger than normal swings using the XUnit wagering method, and nothing, no matter how big the play is a sure thing.

[NBAStats]

I understand completely the risks of tailing. I just can't get my math together until tomorrow. I am going to tail someone tonight, and by reading your posts/blogs I know that you put alot of work into math based formulas (as have I). I would rather tail that any day as opposed to some of the other so called "handicappers" that are blindly throwing darts.

[TGoat]

mil -1 (1x)
dal +6.5 (3x)
ind +4.5 (1x)
tor -2 (8x)
mia +6.5 (3x)

[TGoat]

It appears from the early going that Denver will have to win (cover) this game in the fourth quarter.

[lakerboy]

8x on the raps. wow

[TGoat]

bos +3 (3x)
gs +5 (3x)

[TGoat]

After tonight I'm through betting in the SBR sports book. I bet Washington by mistake instead of Denver for 80 points, and this isn't the first time I've done this.

I mean I could swear I made the right bet, and it comes up just the opposite.

I don't know what my problem is.

[jaymac82980]

I certainly hope you didn't make this bet solely on my recommendation. I warned people about tailing in post #1.

The reason being is that I expect larger than normal swings using the XUnit wagering method, and nothing, no matter how big the play is a sure thing.

you can warn as much as you like, people here love to tail. and if you lose they'll blame you, but when you win, they use words like, "we".

good luck on your plays, and remember, if you use good money management you'lll be fine, no matter how much the tails lose.

and a note to the tails, work with the units - that means DO NOT play the same amount on every bet - of course my best advice would be to make your own picks, that way you can only blame yourself. some people actually use their own threads to track the progress of their own plays.

[jaymac82980]

After tonight I'm through betting in the SBR sports book. I bet Washington by mistake instead of Denver for 80 points, and this isn't the first time I've done this.

I mean I could swear I made the right bet, and it comes up just the opposite.

I don't know what my problem is.

sounds like you just made so bah-ah-ah-aaaaah clicks on the sbr book site. (and yea that my lame attempt at making a goat joke.

[SpreadSniper]

never seen this type of betting outta ya before bro... BOL tonight!

[jaymac82980]

the one thing i like about the toronto bet, is that it seems the line droppes 5 or so points with the release of bosh being out. nobody is worth that many points. NOBODY. of coarse 8 units is quite a bit to bet on a game involving one team missing it's star, versus another crappy teams that seems to be playing just well enough to lose yet cover spreads.

i'm personally going small on toronto - two reasons, i dont think bosh is worth 5 points, and if you look at all the games when a star is out and the line changes drastically, the teams missing the star usually delivers more than you would expect.

[NBAStats]

you can warn as much as you like, people here love to tail. and if you lose they'll blame you, but when you win, they use words like, "we". good luck on your plays, and remember, if you use good money management you'lll be fine, no matter how much the tails lose. and a note to the tails, work with the units - that means DO NOT play the same amount on every bet - of course my best advice would be to make your own picks, that way you can only blame yourself. some people actually use their own threads to track the progress of their own plays.

You are correct in most cases, but I am thanking him right now for his work. Win or lose my thanks is the same. I have my own formulas and spreadsheets, but I have been out of town for a week and am way behind. I just wanted action tonight and chose to follow math based plays rather than something else.

[jaymac82980]

NBAStats, i'm not trying to call out anyone specifically. my post wasnt directed towards you personally.

no harm meant. just trying to make a point. i know the feeling of being down, it makes you look for whoever can help. just remember this, if your down - DON'T CHASE! words to live by. I only wish I could listen to my own advice sometimes.

[doublec]

Nope. Nothing for B2B, injuries, OT, etc.

My system basically trusts the linemaker to properly adjust for those possibilities.

Wait...TGoat..are you saying your system uses the standing line as a base?