The Theory of Line Moves--Is it All a Bunch of Hooey

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  • Gopi-1
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-27-10
    • 952

    #71
    Originally posted by TGoat
    I disagree with this completely, but let me be thorough. I don't want to make a mistake. You're saying the books know, or have a strong feeling who is going to win and adjust the line accordingly. I'm saying that the majority of money is on one team and they move the line accordingly--regardless of which team has the most amount of "bets."

    So just to make sure I am following. You are saying that the Spurs are the play?

    Here is the line from Pinnacle for the Laker game. It opened at -3, and the early money drove it to -4. Then throughout the rest of the day it dropped to -2.5.


    POINTSPREADS
    02/08 07:36 +3 +102 / -3 -113
    02/08 07:41 +4 -105 / -4 -105
    02/08 08:16 +4 -102 / -4 -108
    02/08 08:21 +4 -103 / -4 -107
    02/08 09:06 +4 -105 / -4 -105
    02/08 09:36 +4 -107 / -4 -103
    02/08 10:01 +4 -106 / -4 -104
    02/08 10:11 +4 -105 / -4 -105
    02/08 11:11 +4 -107 / -4 -103
    02/08 11:30 +4 -109 / -4 -101
    02/08 11:45 +4 -115 / -4 +104
    02/08 12:05 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
    02/08 12:50 +3½ -103 / -3½ -107
    02/08 13:25 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
    02/08 15:00 +3½ -102 / -3½ -108
    02/08 15:25 +3½ -101 / -3½ -109
    02/08 15:30 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
    02/08 15:55 +3½ -104 / -3½ -106
    02/08 16:35 +3½ -102 / -3½ -108
    02/08 17:15 +3½ -104 / -3½ -106
    02/08 17:25 +3½ -107 / -3½ -103
    02/08 17:30 +3½ -109 / -3½ -101
    02/08 18:05 +3½ -108 / -3½ -102
    02/08 18:25 +2½ -103 / -2½ -107
    02/08 18:30 +2½ -105 / -2½ -105
    02/08 18:45 +2½ -104 / -2½ -106
    02/08 18:55 +2½ -105 / -2½ -105
    02/08 19:05 +2½ -101 / -2½ -109
    02/08 19:10 +2½ -103 / -2½ -107
    02/08 19:20 +2½ -102 / -2½ -108
    02/08 19:30 +2½ -104 / -2½ -106
    02/08 19:35 +2½ +100 / -2½ -110

    I Looked at three different sites and the majority of BETS were on the Lakers as you say. I can find 60%, 53% and 60%. But the line doesn't go up on the lakers it goes down. You would think that the team with the majority of bets would make the line move against them but in this case it doesn't. So this is RLM, correct?

    Nevermind that the Lakers won. That's beside the point. The main point of this example is that even though the Lakers had the majority of BETS the Spurs had the most MONEY bet on them. Why else would the line go against them?

    Money moves the line. There is nothing nefarious about it. We can see the majority of bets, but what we can't see is the AMOUNT of money bet.

    It's probably true that the majority of the public bettors were on the Lakers, but why couldn't it also be true that the majority of smart money bettors were also on the Lakers. Maybe a few really big bettors on the spurs was keeping the line in check. No one really knows, but if the Spurs were the play tonight it backfired.

    I have looked at this same exact phenomenon hundreds and hundreds of times. Nothing conclusive was ever decided one way or the other.


    What TGoat said...

    Money moves lines, and not the majority of bets that went on one side. Let's just say 90% (100 total bets as our basis) of the bets went to the Lakers, but all of the bets were $10 for a total of $900 action for the Lakers, while the other 10% went to the Spurs, but the bets were $1000 each, that's $9,100 more on the Spurs action, and that will definitely move the lines...
    Comment
    • tonyhomo
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-10-10
      • 749

      #72
      Yes money moves lines and you wont find a book which tells you how much money comes in on one side
      predicring line moves is therefore impossible unless you know the line is off
      Comment
      • Wilforth
        Restricted User
        • 05-10-08
        • 16309

        #73
        Originally posted by williams22
        I fully agree here. Everyone tries to read too much into line movements. Why not just focus on the actual teams themselves?
        Exactly!
        Comment
        • jayc88
          Restricted User
          • 12-30-07
          • 6785

          #74
          Comment
          • statnerds
            SBR MVP
            • 09-23-09
            • 4047

            #75
            Originally posted by TGoat
            Interesting ideas from a lot of people, a lot of theories, a lot of speculation, but no one has shown any concrete evidence.
            and they never will. i learned that fairly quickly here on SBR. everyone talks shit, but about 1% have a record to back up the talk or just make statements with not data to support it.

            i think one of the biggest factors everyone misses on following line moves:



            they have money to burn and have winning and losing streaks like everyone else.

            GL
            Comment
            • bobspicks
              SBR Sharp
              • 12-11-09
              • 386

              #76
              Line movements is the single best way to make money at this!!!!
              Going to give you an example of a bet I placed early yesterday I put 1 Unit on James mad./townson over 139.5 very early in the day!!!
              If I remember right the line jumped 3 full points around 6pm went to 142.5 143 I already knew I won so heres the best advice you can get you need several books to do this.
              When you see a line jump over 2 points skipping past .5 1.5 a straight 2 pt + jump or more find one of your books that hasn't adjusted yet and hit it hard!!!
              I placed another bet on the over for 20 units this time at 140 the trick is to get the same # before the big movement!!!
              I know I didn't get the same # but in this case their was no way it could of hurt me...
              This has been the single best money maker for me in 20+ years of betting!!!!
              Comment
              • SpreadSniper
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-17-09
                • 6125

                #77
                I TRY to use line movement in conjunction with common sense, but it doesn't always work like that. I have shyed away from what have been winners and jumped on loosing wagons a few times since I've started using line movements in making my plays. One thing that has been working successfully is when a line moves just before tip on a game when I already have a play. If the line moves and indicates sharp action on the team I was already betting on, I have been tripling (or more) my bet and more often than not (id say 70-80% of the time) the game ends with money in the bank.
                Comment
                • Tomato
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-29-09
                  • 1251

                  #78
                  Tomato is fairly certain that no one in this thread makes any money gambling.

                  EDIT - Tomato saw that MonkeyF0cker posted in this thread.
                  Comment
                  • laziie
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-16-09
                    • 207

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Tomato
                    Tomato is fairly certain that no one in this thread makes any money gambling.

                    EDIT - Tomato saw that MonkeyF0cker posted in this thread.
                    tomato posted in this thread too?
                    Comment
                    • Quagmire27
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-30-09
                      • 626

                      #80
                      Tomato is a retard.
                      Comment
                      • suicidekings
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-23-09
                        • 9962

                        #81
                        I'm of the opinion that watching line movements can be valuable at times, but I don't understand why the Lakers-Spurs game is the one you're focusing on as an example... The line moved around because of Kobe/Bynum so any discussion attributing line movement to other factors is tainted.

                        If both teams had been at full strength, I would have placed a fair line at LAL -10. Say what you want about the Spurs potential but they've been just awful against good teams this year... They are not the championship team of years past. With Kobe/Bynum doubtful, the linesmakers over-compensated by opening the line at -3.5 and again when they dropped it to -2.5. However, these moves were in keeping with the public notion that without Kobe, the Lakers are much worse off, which was obviously proven not to be the case.

                        Nothing shady in the line moves last night. I would like to see this discussion continue tonight with other games used as examples.
                        Comment
                        • TGoat
                          Restricted User
                          • 08-07-09
                          • 612

                          #82
                          Originally posted by bobspicks
                          Going to give you an example of a bet I placed early yesterday I put 1 Unit on James mad./townson over 139.5 very early in the day!!!
                          If I remember right the line jumped 3 full points around 6pm went to 142.5 143 I already knew I won so heres the best advice you can get you need several books to do this.
                          When you see a line jump over 2 points skipping past .5 1.5 a straight 2 pt + jump or more find one of your books that hasn't adjusted yet and hit it hard!!!
                          I placed another bet on the over for 20 units this time at 140 the trick is to get the same # before the big movement!!!
                          I know I didn't get the same # but in this case their was no way it could of hurt me...
                          This has been the single best money maker for me in 20+ years of betting!!!!
                          All right, I looked at all of yesterday's college games and there were four with a line move on the total of 2 or more points. That is, a 2 or more point jump at one time.

                          Rider Niagra 146-148 Bet the Over Final=132
                          Citadel Charlette 129-132 Bet the Over Final=137
                          App St Nc Green 142-144.5 Bet the Over Final =144 (Depends on which line you get)
                          James Mad Towson 139-142 Bet the Over Final=159

                          In three games it didn't matter which line you got, and in one game if you didn't get the better number you lost.

                          So why did you only mention the one game when there were actually four qualifiers?
                          Comment
                          • whatsgood5
                            Restricted User
                            • 10-13-09
                            • 15359

                            #83
                            Originally posted by Gopi-1
                            What TGoat said... Money moves lines, and not the majority of bets that went on one side. Let's just say 90% (100 total bets as our basis) of the bets went to the Lakers, but all of the bets were $10 for a total of $900 action for the Lakers, while the other 10% went to the Spurs, but the bets were $1000 each, that's $9,100 more on the Spurs action, and that will definitely move the lines...
                            So true
                            Comment
                            • roasthawg
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-09-07
                              • 2990

                              #84
                              People playing line moves are just trying to piggy back on sharp plays because they aren't sharp themselves... not the worst idea in the world and it can probably be profitable (many people swear by it).
                              Comment
                              • big0mar
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-09-09
                                • 3374

                                #85
                                Line movement is very valuable, as long as you don't try to apply it to every game.
                                [B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.

                                [/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]
                                Comment
                                • bobspicks
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-11-09
                                  • 386

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by TGoat
                                  All right, I looked at all of yesterday's college games and there were four with a line move on the total of 2 or more points. That is, a 2 or more point jump at one time.

                                  Rider Niagra 146-148 Bet the Over Final=132
                                  Citadel Charlette 129-132 Bet the Over Final=137
                                  App St Nc Green 142-144.5 Bet the Over Final =144 (Depends on which line you get)
                                  James Mad Towson 139-142 Bet the Over Final=159

                                  In three games it didn't matter which line you got, and in one game if you didn't get the better number you lost.

                                  So why did you only mention the one game when there were actually four qualifiers?
                                  That was the only game that I bet that had 2+pt line move I cap games then if sharp money agrees I bet it harder!!!
                                  But what I said to do did go 3-1 by what your saying..
                                  Comment
                                  • statnerds
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-23-09
                                    • 4047

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by bobspicks
                                    Line movements is the single best way to make money at this!!!!
                                    Going to give you an example of a bet I placed early yesterday I put 1 Unit on James mad./townson over 139.5 very early in the day!!!
                                    If I remember right the line jumped 3 full points around 6pm went to 142.5 143 I already knew I won so heres the best advice you can get you need several books to do this.
                                    RAS released Over in the Towson (no N), thus the line jump. however, as i said, these guys move lines too:

                                    Comment
                                    • Karayilan9
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-10-09
                                      • 3742

                                      #88
                                      Theory and practice are two different things, alot of people talk about line movement not alot of people really understand what to look for in a line.
                                      Comment
                                      • TGoat
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 08-07-09
                                        • 612

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                        Theory and practice are two different things, alot of people talk about line movement not alot of people really understand what to look for in a line.
                                        Enlighten us.
                                        Comment
                                        • Pensinger1
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 12-23-08
                                          • 505

                                          #90
                                          Didn't LT Profits already prove that blindly betting on RLM's in any sport is profitable?
                                          Comment
                                          • PatrickBateman
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 03-29-08
                                            • 367

                                            #91
                                            Some good thoughts here, I enjoy the lively worthwhile discussion
                                            Comment
                                            • DeluxeLiner
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-29-08
                                              • 4132

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by Pensinger1
                                              Didn't LT Profits already prove that blindly betting on RLM's in any sport is profitable?
                                              Yes, I read that article too.

                                              Only a few games qualify in a season of sports. The NFL usually has a max of 3 and sometimes 0 RLM plays. NCAAF has RLM games every week. NBA has no play days a lot. Those are the three I apply RLM too.

                                              When doing RLM you need to make sure nothing else is moving the line such as injuries or some other factor. Also RLM shouldn't be your only reason to bet a game, you should probably like the side for other reasons too.
                                              Comment
                                              • Nimo
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 01-22-10
                                                • 105

                                                #93
                                                An interesting discussion for sure. One thing not mentioned is line moves on the moneyline. For example at Pinny for the HOU/MIA game the moneyline has gotten lower Houston, it opened at +194 and now it sits at +180, but the pointspread has moved from +5 to +5.5. Also within an hour the line moved from +5 +102 to +5.5 -111. Is that a line move worth looking at?

                                                I use sims that I created to make my own lines and if I see a value in the line that's where I bet. CAVEAT: I don't look at injuries or emotion, just plain cold math. Having said that, my line has Houston at -2. A value play for me.
                                                Comment
                                                • suicidekings
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                  • 9962

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by Nimo
                                                  An interesting discussion for sure. One thing not mentioned is line moves on the moneyline. For example at Pinny for the HOU/MIA game the moneyline has gotten lower Houston, it opened at +194 and now it sits at +180, but the pointspread has moved from +5 to +5.5. Also within an hour the line moved from +5 +102 to +5.5 -111. Is that a line move worth looking at?

                                                  I use sims that I created to make my own lines and if I see a value in the line that's where I bet. CAVEAT: I don't look at injuries or emotion, just plain cold math. Having said that, my line has Houston at -2. A value play for me.
                                                  Spreads and moneylines start proportional to each other, but tend to drift apart in some games when the dog is getting more action on the spread while the fave is getting more action on the ML, or vice versa.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HoulihansTX
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-12-09
                                                    • 30566

                                                    #95
                                                    65% of bettors are on the Jazz
                                                    35% are on the Clipps

                                                    according to 5Dimes


                                                    odds at the sharp books

                                                    Pinny
                                                    -5 (-106)
                                                    +5 (-104)

                                                    Matchy
                                                    -5.5 (+111)
                                                    +5.5 (-112)

                                                    Greek
                                                    -5.5 (-105)
                                                    +5.5 (-115)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TGoat
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 08-07-09
                                                      • 612

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                      65% of bettors are on the Jazz
                                                      35% are on the Clipps

                                                      according to 5Dimes


                                                      odds at the sharp books

                                                      Pinny
                                                      -5 (-106)
                                                      +5 (-104)

                                                      Matchy
                                                      -5.5 (+111)
                                                      +5.5 (-112)

                                                      Greek
                                                      -5.5 (-105)
                                                      +5.5 (-115)
                                                      And...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pats3peat
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-23-05
                                                        • 1163

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

                                                        Yes, I read that article too.

                                                        Only a few games qualify in a season of sports. The NFL usually has a max of 3 and sometimes 0 RLM plays. NCAAF has RLM games every week. NBA has no play days a lot. Those are the three I apply RLM too.

                                                        When doing RLM you need to make sure nothing else is moving the line such as injuries or some other factor. Also RLM shouldn't be your only reason to bet a game, you should probably like the side for other reasons too.
                                                        good stuff. especially agree with you should like the play for other reasons

                                                        can you link me to the thread/or tell me what the nba application is for no-plays. I like to play nba
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wilforth
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 05-10-08
                                                          • 16309

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by big0mar
                                                          Line movement is very valuable, as long as you don't try to apply it to every game.
                                                          Exactly!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pats3peat
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-23-05
                                                            • 1163

                                                            #99
                                                            ehh
                                                            Comment
                                                            • The fiddler
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-27-10
                                                              • 554

                                                              #100
                                                              The closing line is the aggregate opinions of what the public thinks the line should be. My opinion is that the closing line reflects the true odds on a sporting event about 80% of the time.

                                                              The only way to win sports wagering is to be smarter than the consensus of the public.

                                                              Very few people are disciplined to play only games where the public line is actually off.

                                                              Anyone that claims that they are consistant winners in basketball...are liars. They may win for a week. a month or a season...but they will lose over the long haul.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jqenterprises
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 02-14-10
                                                                • 142

                                                                #101
                                                                I have a surefire 2nd half NBA total "system" that i have been tracking for a month now...I have every possible combo for 2nd half scores..I have tracking in place for 40/40 at half, 50/50 at half, 60-50 at half, and so on...I have different scenarios for Game totals..

                                                                For example.
                                                                Both teams at 50-50 at half
                                                                Game total 200-209
                                                                I have the Over or the Under at a 21-1 clip for the 2nd half

                                                                Now every scenario isnt at 21-1, some are 6-2 , some are 9-1..some are 5-5..If you want to email me at jqenterprises1972@gmail, then i can give you more info

                                                                This is NOT a tout service..just some trends i found to help a fellow sports better
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TGoat
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 08-07-09
                                                                  • 612

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by jqenterprises
                                                                  I have a surefire 2nd half NBA total "system" that i have been tracking for a month now...I have every possible combo for 2nd half scores..I have tracking in place for 40/40 at half, 50/50 at half, 60-50 at half, and so on...I have different scenarios for Game totals..

                                                                  For example.
                                                                  Both teams at 50-50 at half
                                                                  Game total 200-209
                                                                  I have the Over or the Under at a 21-1 clip for the 2nd half

                                                                  Now every scenario isnt at 21-1, some are 6-2 , some are 9-1..some are 5-5..If you want to email me at jqenterprises1972@gmail, then i can give you more info

                                                                  This is NOT a tout service..just some trends i found to help a fellow sports better
                                                                  Just go ahead and start a thread posting all of your "surefire" 2nd half total picks starting on the 16th. Do this for 14 days, betting at least 60 games, and if they hit 60% or greater I'll ship you 50 points.

                                                                  If they hit 65% or greater, with at least 60 games, I'll ship you 100 points.

                                                                  You have until Midnight tonight (PST) to accept the offer.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DOMINATER
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-10-09
                                                                    • 3698

                                                                    #103
                                                                    there are line moves from vegas and line moves from the local bookie,
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • doublec
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 12-16-09
                                                                      • 196

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by The fiddler
                                                                      Anyone that claims that they are consistant winners in basketball...are liars. They may win for a week. a month or a season...but they will lose over the long haul.
                                                                      Well said. I think this is the point TGoat is trying to make. The fact that things might be going great this season is insignificant statistically and likely has more to do with luck than any kind of winning trend.

                                                                      You would be wise to listen to TGoat-this guy knows his long term success sustainability.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JohnAnthony
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 04-30-09
                                                                        • 5110

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by The fiddler
                                                                        The closing line is the aggregate opinions of what the public thinks the line should be. My opinion is that the closing line reflects the true odds on a sporting event about 80% of the time. The only way to win sports wagering is to be smarter than the consensus of the public. Very few people are disciplined to play only games where the public line is actually off. Anyone that claims that they are consistant winners in basketball...are liars. They may win for a week. a month or a season...but they will lose over the long haul.
                                                                        LT Profits have a 14-season winning streak all tracked. What do you think?
                                                                        "I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."

                                                                        - D.H. Lawrence
                                                                        Comment
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