The Theory of Line Moves--Is it All a Bunch of Hooey

[pats3peat]

How do you know this? Have you ever worked for a book? Have you studied sports book management?

If, it looks though, and maybe are nice ideas, but what is the basis in fact? Do you have any long term data to support your theories. I'm not criticizing. I want to learn. Anecdotal data just doesn't cut with me anymore. I have to see the facts.

This is what I was asking for also - noone seems to have anything to back it up.
They say they know Spyro or whoever at The Greek gambles on games. The BoDog effect, the pinny effect.
But no proof or anything. incredibly annoying.

[Dexter]

either follow the very early or very late movement - but, you have to either buy pts or have a few books to shop. if a line drops late from 3 to 2 and you get 2, you'll lose in the long run.

i have 1 book that always sides with favorites regardless of movement. thats the book i play most dogs and unders with.

combine line movements with capping and you can do ok if you have the time

[pats3peat]

can someone call in a sportsbook linemaker, get in here to clear this all. ty

[HoulihansTX]

What I mean by books gambling is when..... Hell just watch out for when the majority of bets are on one side, but Matchy/ Pinny move their odds to +EV to the same side everyone is betting on. They are begging for people to bet that side, because of their confidence on the other side.

Someone with the time needs to make a running thread of this happening.

Todays example is Lakers getting majority of bets, but Pinny/Matchy shading the vig to the Spurs side.

[HoulihansTX]

The Greek has Spurs at -115 also.

[pats3peat]

im looking for like a proven source like a scholarly article that can say books gamble because of this --
as for right now its just a theory

[scottel]

With $20,000 bet on team A and $18,000 bet on team B they are not really "gambling." If team A wins they collect $19,800 from team B bettors and pay out $20,000 to team A bettors. Result -$200. But if team B wins they collect $22,000 from team A bettors and pay out $18,000 to team B bettors. So they are really risking $200 to win $4000. I'd take that gamble every day of the week. Good work if you can get it.

..........exactly.......we have to lay 11-10 ....this is why the books dont go under......in gambling the house has the edge.....the best chance everday bettors have is to bet one or two games and grind it out.......not 4-7 or more every night

[HoulihansTX]

im looking for like a proven source like a scholarly article that can say books gamble because of this -- as for right now its just a theory

Understandable.

But you could do it yourself if you watched the Percentages, and odds.

[PittsburghPlayer]

Great work TGoat. Well written as well. Nice. Good thoughts by the rest of you men to.

[Mini19]

Why would books gamble? If someone told you that they were gonna give you an option of winning 100 with no risk or an option of winning 600 but your risking 200 wouldn't you take the free money everytime?

[lakerboy]

Pinny loves to gamble. They gambled on the saints yesterday big time. They also hung a saints -4 +235 line for 2nd hf which i snapped up. They have to have opinions to make even more money. They arent always right though.

[MR PROFIT]

Why would books gamble? If someone told you that they were gonna give you an option of winning 100 with no risk or an option of winning 600 but your risking 200 wouldn't you take the free money everytime?

[NBAStats]

Line moves and what alot of people consider "handicapping" will never, ever, ever, ever make money in the long term. The true handicappers are using a computer with complex sets of formulas to form sims. Any other garbage on line moves, and this team matches up better with this team better, and this team had a bad/good outing the game before is pure garbage. Of course there are tons of people who win over a few hundred games like this, and a very small % over a few thousand. People also hit the powerball and mega millions sometimes. Unless you are working with math, you are pissing away your time and money.

[ZetaPsi808]

lakerboy i thought you lived in the US. how do you bet at pinnacle?

[HoulihansTX]

lakerboy i thought you lived in the US. how do you bet at pinnacle?

Dont have to live in Europe to watch line movement.

[lakerboy]

lakerboy i thought you lived in the US. how do you bet at pinnacle?

im in canada

[laziie]

Why would books gamble? If someone told you that they were gonna give you an option of winning 100 with no risk or an option of winning 600 but your risking 200 wouldn't you take the free money everytime?

if the bet have +EV i would take the second option to win 600

[MonkeyF0cker]

Pinny loves to gamble. They gambled on the saints yesterday big time. They also hung a saints -4 +235 line for 2nd hf which i snapped up. They have to have opinions to make even more money. They arent always right though.

No.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Holy crap. The blind lead the blind around here now.

[joeybagadonuts]

I fully agree here. Everyone tries to read too much into line movements. Why not just focus on the actual teams themselves?

I have a better question, why not focus on just line moves and not bother with the teams. I could maybe name 5 players in all of CBB yet I am killing it this year.

Much less time consuming to 'cap sharp money and line moves than it is to handicap the teams themselves.

[kdavis]

Early or late line movement. Neither one is consistent enough. Linesmakers are not idiots. If you wager on line movement alone you will a have about 47% to 49% winning rate in the long run. We know that won't cut it fellas.

[pats3peat]

Line moves and what alot of people consider "handicapping" will never, ever, ever, ever make money in the long term. The true handicappers are using a computer with complex sets of formulas to form sims. Any other garbage on line moves, and this team matches up better with this team better, and this team had a bad/good outing the game before is pure garbage. Of course there are tons of people who win over a few hundred games like this, and a very small % over a few thousand. People also hit the powerball and mega millions sometimes. Unless you are working with math, you are pissing away your time and money.

yea my ***** but sometimes math doesnt calculate for stuff, a complex system of formulas is def badass - how some brothers get profits consistently over seasons without A computer that figures out plays. you have to consider human elements too

i agree i think the BigShots, the full-time cappers all have computer systems.

[pats3peat]

I have a better question, why not focus on just line moves and not bother with the teams. I could maybe name 5 players in all of CBB yet I am killing it this year.

Much less time consuming to 'cap sharp money and line moves than it is to handicap the teams themselves.

My *****, ive seen some good line move theories work in cbb, start a thread and track that please - thank you

[HoulihansTX]

My *****, ive seen some good line move theories work in cbb, start a thread and track that please - thank you

Whoa, Whoa you are black??
Didnt know Boston had black people??

Yea the people who win in the long run know how to make their own lines, and power ratings.

[lakerboy]

No.

Monkey dont tell me you dont think Pinny has opinions.

[pats3peat]

Whoa, Whoa you are black??
Didnt know Boston had black people??

Yea the people who win in the long run know how to make their own lines, and power ratings.

nope yea boston has a lot of black people in areas
but im not black just wigger

regarding your post: werd

there is also something to say about vegas adjusting the line to not represent the true line but what the public will find fair. kind of like a business selling a product at 1200 dollars but they make 400 profit but the customer values it at 1200 anyway

[NBAStats]

Tgoat the bottom line is no one is going to post any data that supports any of these theories regarding line moves. That is because there is none. People will come and spout off different versions of similar gamblers fallacies, but will not post any data to support it.

[pats3peat]

Tgoat the bottom line is no one is going to post any data that supports any of these theories regarding line moves. That is because there is none. People will come and spout off different versions of similar gamblers fallacies, but will not post any data to support it.

true

[suicidekings]

there is also something to say about vegas adjusting the line to not represent the true line but what the public will find fair. kind of like a business selling a product at 1200 dollars but they make 400 profit but the customer values it at 1200 anyway

This is a very important point. I feel like this is where a lot of cappers go wrong when they start generating their own lines, trying to recreate the Vegas lines rather than understanding this concept. I know I wasted a lot of time trying to "perfect" my system before I realized my error and focused on developing fair lines and guidelines for making the comparison between opening lines and my lines.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey dont tell me you dont think Pinny has opinions.

It's called market efficiency. They DO NOT have opinionated lines.

[pats3peat]

plz explain the market efficiency in being different to all the other books - were they the only ones smart enough to put saints -4.5 to get even money or were they just hit with a higher $$ of colts bets than other books

[MonkeyF0cker]

They have higher volume subsequently greater efficiency than most other books in most markets. Action moves their lines. Not bookmaker opinions.

[THE PROFIT]

I think the only way to tell anything about a line is a virgin line. When bookmaker, and I use them as an example because they release lines earliest I think, puts a total out at 5:30 & within 2 minutes it has moved 3 points that tells me that huge money is being bet by sharps on that side whether its over or under. You have to have already capped that total & figure where you feel safe playing it at if that virgin line isn't available to you. It's very hard to get!!!

[TGoat]

What I mean by books gambling is when..... Hell just watch out for when the majority of bets are on one side, but Matchy/ Pinny move their odds to +EV to the same side everyone is betting on. They are begging for people to bet that side, because of their confidence on the other side.

I disagree with this completely, but let me be thorough. I don't want to make a mistake. You're saying the books know, or have a strong feeling who is going to win and adjust the line accordingly. I'm saying that the majority of money is on one team and they move the line accordingly--regardless of which team has the most amount of "bets."

Todays example is Lakers getting majority of bets, but Pinny/Matchy shading the vig to the Spurs side.

So just to make sure I am following. You are saying that the Spurs are the play?

Here is the line from Pinnacle for the Laker game. It opened at -3, and the early money drove it to -4. Then throughout the rest of the day it dropped to -2.5.


POINTSPREADS
02/08 07:36 +3 +102 / -3 -113
02/08 07:41 +4 -105 / -4 -105
02/08 08:16 +4 -102 / -4 -108
02/08 08:21 +4 -103 / -4 -107
02/08 09:06 +4 -105 / -4 -105
02/08 09:36 +4 -107 / -4 -103
02/08 10:01 +4 -106 / -4 -104
02/08 10:11 +4 -105 / -4 -105
02/08 11:11 +4 -107 / -4 -103
02/08 11:30 +4 -109 / -4 -101
02/08 11:45 +4 -115 / -4 +104
02/08 12:05 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
02/08 12:50 +3½ -103 / -3½ -107
02/08 13:25 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
02/08 15:00 +3½ -102 / -3½ -108
02/08 15:25 +3½ -101 / -3½ -109
02/08 15:30 +3½ -105 / -3½ -105
02/08 15:55 +3½ -104 / -3½ -106
02/08 16:35 +3½ -102 / -3½ -108
02/08 17:15 +3½ -104 / -3½ -106
02/08 17:25 +3½ -107 / -3½ -103
02/08 17:30 +3½ -109 / -3½ -101
02/08 18:05 +3½ -108 / -3½ -102
02/08 18:25 +2½ -103 / -2½ -107
02/08 18:30 +2½ -105 / -2½ -105
02/08 18:45 +2½ -104 / -2½ -106
02/08 18:55 +2½ -105 / -2½ -105
02/08 19:05 +2½ -101 / -2½ -109
02/08 19:10 +2½ -103 / -2½ -107
02/08 19:20 +2½ -102 / -2½ -108
02/08 19:30 +2½ -104 / -2½ -106
02/08 19:35 +2½ +100 / -2½ -110

I Looked at three different sites and the majority of BETS were on the Lakers as you say. I can find 60%, 53% and 60%. But the line doesn't go up on the lakers it goes down. You would think that the team with the majority of bets would make the line move against them but in this case it doesn't. So this is RLM, correct?

Nevermind that the Lakers won. That's beside the point. The main point of this example is that even though the Lakers had the majority of BETS the Spurs had the most MONEY bet on them. Why else would the line go against them?

Money moves the line. There is nothing nefarious about it. We can see the majority of bets, but what we can't see is the AMOUNT of money bet.

It's probably true that the majority of the public bettors were on the Lakers, but why couldn't it also be true that the majority of smart money bettors were also on the Lakers. Maybe a few really big bettors on the spurs was keeping the line in check. No one really knows, but if the Spurs were the play tonight it backfired.

I have looked at this same exact phenomenon hundreds and hundreds of times. Nothing conclusive was ever decided one way or the other.

[BillAccpetor]

You'll have to find the right sportsbook to concentrate on. Pinnacle, Carib Sports, Phoenix, WSex if you know what you do you should be over 60% with their help in NFL for example...