i PULLED THIS FROM ANOTHER PLACE......i THINK IT HAS VALUE
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BOS +6.5UNDER 187.5Some mentioned how Boston are due for a game where the whole team shows up not just 1 or 2 players and though i couldn't bank on it for game 4 it did happen and now I believe Boston will be on a roll from here on out. First 4 games refs hindered key players in accordance to which team they wanted to give advantage to in hope to extend the series to at lest 6 games and now that it is guaranteed. Though it was clear Boston got some home cooking calls and by saying what i just stated "they" could still be aiming for 7 games but i just feel Boston are in a groove, their defense is getting tighter as if they are looking to choke LA and their playing well as a team and giving them 6.5 points at this point could prove too much. Where as LA have not been looking good especially since Bynum's knee has been getting worse. Bynums knees will not miraculously improve, Boston are doing a good job running which is also strategy to mess up Bynums injury. I just beleive Bynum is the key for LA to win this series. LA are the 2008 version of themselves without him and they look frail without their twin towers being effective.I thought kobe lost that game for LA spite of him shooting lights out. Cannot beat ateam such as Boston on hiw own he needs to get his team mates invovled and because he chose to let's say "Hog" he did not allow his team mates to get going offensively ruining any chance of any team effort which is what you need to deafeat the Celtics.Also Boston's bench is out playing LA's and all of a sudden a deep squad such as LA looks as worse as Miami Heat depth wise. Where is LA's bench? As i mentioned Game 4 i noticed how Phil really has no real faith in his bench not allowing any real rotation and as we saw in result kobe was exhausted in game 4.....................with that said to me Phils team is looking a little thin & small without effort from their bench and Bynum's knee getting worse.6.5 just looks way too many points to give Boston at this stage of the series. AMMy bad i'm trying to juggle my sons need with this write up and got side tracked........"and now that it is guaranteed............." i''ll continue:Now that it is guaranteed (that the series goes to 6/7) i don't see the refs manipulating these games as much as they did so very heavily game 1-4. Game 6 will continue from game 5 officiating wise, LA could get some calls their way being at home but i feel if Boston continue to play well it might not matter down the stretch. Boston defense is clicking, you cannot ignore this because it will be a very significant factor from here on out. I stated very early in this series if the refs do not allow a physical game LA will win this series and now that the refs are allowing them to play more Boston's Defense has come alive because Boston thrive as a physical team....add this with lack of depth from LA and Bynums knee and Boston are just looking good right now. iNTELLIGENT WRITEUP...imoComment -
why did i even read these last 2 pages?
paco, i hope you're right. been holding a lakers series bet for awhile and didn't think it would come down to needing 7 games. but i'm not that worried about it. can't wait for this game tonight.Comment -
Well noone has said that they are a "1 man team" before but that's the situation now isn't it, they haven't met boston until now. Boston has made Kobe lonely. Lebron couldn't beat them alone, neither can kobe. If only Kobe shows up to play, Lakers will lose. Lakers might win the championship this year, but to do that they must do something they haven't done... beat boston 2 times in a row!Lakers win the Championship this year. All u guys who are calling Lakers soft and "1 man team" now will put ur foot in ur mouth. Nobody called Lakers a "1 man team" all thru out these playoffs and now they are down in the series and all this shit comes flying to that team. An let's not forget, remaining 2 games are at there house. This will be my last post regarding this series. I'll be bak once Lakers hoist the trophy or I'll come back if they lose and say i was wrong.
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Much as I don't want to be, I'm feeling Lakers and the Over tonight.Comment -
Has anyone else thought that soon this totally epic thread will reach its conclusion?!?! ...It's kinda sad!
(Though I think none of us will miss the constant bickering!
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I thought about that too at the start of the Finals. It's almost finished in here unless we all start betting WNBA.
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anyone else likes the over for tomorrow? i think there will be lots of foul in the endComment -
hope LA wins tomorrow, i will cut class just to watch the game hope they win it fuk itComment -
LAKERS FAITHFUL FEELING DÉJÀ VU AS CELTICS MOVE AHEAD IN SERIES
I mentioned the last time we were together that I was seeing a lot of worried faces on Lakers fans in sportsbooks here in town. That was BEFORE they lost Game Five!
I wouldn't say it's an all out panic. But, Lakers fans and bettors seem resigned to the fact that the team isn't as good as they thought they were, and that the absence of Andrew Bynum as an inside force in the series has put them behind the eight ball.
The last time these two teams met in the finals, the same kind of thing happened. The Lakers opened as a series favorite. Lakers bettors thought the price was too low because beating the Celtics would be easy. By the second week of the series, it was obvious that beating the Celtics wasn't going to be easy! It can be expensive to be a Lakers fan!
Nevada pointspreads tend to reflect public sentiment, though I have to admit that many oddsmakers thought the Lakers were going to dominate both series too. Here's what's happened against market prices in 2008 and 2010 thus far (note that the 2008 series started in Boston, with the 2010 series starting in LA).
2008
Lakers (+3) lost at Boston 98-88
Lakers (-1½) lost at Boston 108-102
Lakers (-9½) beat Boston 87-81
Lakers (-7½) lost to Boston 97-91
Lakers (-7½) beat Boston 103-98
Lakers (+4) lost to Boston 131-92
2010
Lakers (-6) beat Boston 102-89
Lakers (-6) lost to Boston 103-94
Lakers (+3) beat Boston 91-84
Lakers (+4) lost to Boston 96-89
Lakers (+3) lost to Boston 92-86
Straight Up: Lakers 4-6
Against the Spread: Lakers 2-8
Lakers fans already hated the Celtics before winning only 20% of their championship bets!
Home court advantage is usually worth about 4-5 points in a championship series. This year it's being priced around 4½ (9-point differential from place to place). Two years ago was a little weird because the market never did price Boston properly (Lakers 0-6 ATS). The prices are showing that the market believes Los Angeles was the better team both times. The actual final scores are showing that Boston has been the better team. That was decisively true back in 2008, and has been slightly true to this point in 2010.
Hence, the frowns on the faces of Lakers fans. And, the challenge for handicappers and bettors in determining if the Lakers can even be bet in these last two games. LA is 2-3 straight up as home favorites, 1-4 ATS over the two series. How can you lay 6 points or more with a team that can't even establish superiority over 11 championship round meetings with similar styles and personnel?
The market is still shaded in the direction of the Lakers. Will Kobe and company rally to a championship with a couple of big wins? Or, has little of magnitude changed since the 2008 meeting?Comment -
I think LA might win, but covering 6.5 is iffy, as far as the over, no clue because I have been wrong about that all series. How do you guys think LA will shoot tonight?Comment -
CELTICS ONE WIN AWAY...BUT LAKERS STILL HOME FAVORITESWith a 3-2 lead, Boston is just one game away from the title. But, the Lakers are favored by 6½ points this evening, and would be favored by between 4-7 points in a seventh game depending on how things went tonight if they won. Who's "really" favored? The opinions of many pundits are changing each day!
This has turned out to be quite a championship series. The Los Angeles Lakers looked strong early in the series, controlling the stats that matter through the first three games (Boston needed to make 11 treys to steal Game Two on the road). Boston turned the tide with its bench late in the third quarter of Game Four...and have been dominating the inside game ever since.
It's rare to see a turn THIS dramatic (outside of TV soap operas) in a major event. Several factors have keyed the turnaround for Boston.- Andrew Bynum's injury has progressively worsened, turning his position into a bit of a black hole rather than a strength. This is why the Lakers dominated inside the arc in the first three games, but got dominated after that. Bynum went from a guy who could contribute quality minutes to a guy who couldn't (he had only one rebound in extended play Sunday Night).
- Rajon Rondo's balky back snapped back into place, and he's the high energy force once again that we got used to seeing in earlier rounds. This is a HUGE deal because Boston's offense is stagnant when Rondo can't scoot and shoot. Also, Rondo has a knack for making big steals or grabbing long rebounds on defense when he's healthy. Boston looked like a champion in series wins over Cleveland and Orlando because Rondo was healthy. They looked like mere mortals early in this series because of the bad back. You've seen with your own eyes that Boston's championship form has returned.
- The Lakers got tired! The lack of a strong bench has really started to take its toll the longer this series has progressed. Los Angeles was fresh in the early games because of a long layoff before the start of the Finals. Thursday's Game Four collapse came at the end of a Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday sequence. Instead of getting fresh Sunday with an extra day off, the Lakers STILL looked tired in Game Five. Pau Gasol lost a step. Ron Artest has lost his edge. Lamar Odom isn't ready for big minutes in relief of Bynum. There are no more significant rest breaks. Los Angeles has to get its legs back, and quick.
- Boston ISN'T getting tired! Different guys are stepping up offensively to carry the load. And, the bench brings real energy and quality minutes. This is a unit that will have no trouble going seven games, even with the age issues of a couple of the starters.
Let's see what the oddsmakers are saying about Game Six in Los Angeles...
GAME SIX: BOSTON AT LOS ANGELES
BOSTON leads 3-2
Vegas Line: Los Angeles by 6½, total of 187½
The numbers are pretty much in line with the rest of the series...as the Lakers were -6 at home in the first two games and are now in a much win situation. The closing total was 188½ in the last game, and has gradually drifted downward later in the series as is the custom in the NBA.
We have to say though that the numbers are "unresponsive" to the reality that's been laid out on the court these last two games. The Lakers aren't being priced like a tired team that will have trouble reaching 90 points. The line above represents a "final score" of 97-90½ in a Lakers victory. Los Angeles hasn't reached 97 points since Game One, when the refs were putting them on the line all night and the team made a run at 50% from the field.
Lakers this series: 102-94-91-89-86
LA had to "surge" to 89 with a bunch of last minute points in Game Four...and saw Kobe shoot lights out for a stretch in Game Five, only to settle at 86. The market is predicting a return to form needless to say...or a return to health and fitness. Handicappers have to determine if a "must-win" situation justifies that kind of confidence. It's been a slow paced series with intense defense. 97 is a tough hurdle to clear in that style of play.
You know, NEITHER team reached 97 points in Boston!
BOSTON 92, LA LAKERS 86
Three-Point Scoring: Lakers 21, Boston 9
Two-Point Scoring: Lakers 48, Boston 74
Free Throw Scoring: Lakers 17, Boston 9
That two-point scoring line should jump out at you. The Lakers were just helpless inside for the second straight game. Fatigue shows up on jump shots offensively, and on two-point defense defensively. The Lakers were just plain exhausted based on this stat over the last two games.
TWO-POINT SCORING BY GAME
Lakers 66, Boston 56
Boston 50, Lakers 48
Lakers 64, Boston 56
Boston 68, Lakers 50
Boston 74, Lakers 48
The Lakers had victories of 10 and 8 points when they were fresh, but suddenly crashed and burned to losses of 18 and 26 once Pau Gasol started bending over and gasping for air and Andrew Bynum started auditioning for "Mannequin 3" because of his injury.
You regular readers know we emphasize inside play when championships are on the line. Defense and rebounding wins championships! Boston is controlling the series inside the arc now, and has won rebounding the last two games after falling in that stat the first three.
If the Lakers can't get their legs back, this series is over NOW. Boston has shown they can win on this court. Rondo is scampering all over the court again. Kobe Bryant can't win two straight games on his own. He was near peak performance offensively the other night and the Lakers still lost by six.Comment -
Yeah, I can't see that happening. Although would be pretty funny to hear the back-and-forth bickering on like the Tulsa Shock's starting backcourt vs. the Phoenix Mercury's length!
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Could you imagine? I honestly don't know a single thing about the WNBA. I know there's an Aussie named Lauren Jackson playing somewhere and that Sheryl Swoopes used to play but that is honestly it. Couldn't even tell you half the names of the teams.
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Hey im 1-0 in WNBA so far. Will finish season at 100%Comment -
Sorry people, but the Celtics are the play tonight. Spread is way too high for a frustrated lakers squad to cover. I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics win straight up tonight. Which is why I love sprinklinsp loot on the moneyline as well. The velyica are playing way too good, and as a complete team. They'll be hoisting another banner in noston soon. Its not too late to hedge your lakers bets.
Good luck.Comment -
Maybe we need to start capping this crap! It has to be easier to beat than baseball.
Screw it, I'm going to try to zoom past LB.
First pick: Atlanta/Chicago over 165. -110
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DEFINITE FADE!!! My analysis of this exciting match: the last game between the two went under, the total went up by a point overnight, therefore this one must go over.
Who says I don't have skills?
Watch, LB will start a new NBA thread at the end of October and I'll still be in here alone posting Japanese basketball picks.
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I wonder who Magic Johnson will say wins tonight.Comment -
Lb, I was under the impression that people here were taking the lakers due to all the talk of them winning the series. I guess I misunderstood.
Glad to see your on Celtics tonight too.
I guess people are really thinking that lakers win tonight but don't cover? If tha the case I understand. Although I think the celtics have a great shot at winning it all tonight.
At a +240 ml, how can you resist I know I'm all over it.Comment -
Put a jersey on next year and track everything with units assigned. Only 3 guys here have been able to withstand the cold streaks.
LB, Dexter, and I are the ones that had the jersey on all year with units, its easy to post the winners but lets see how you do when the losing streak happens. And you will go ice cold too, you might no it all in NBA but you wont be able to dust my shoes in capping so stop the nonsense.Comment -
im at 188, wasnt able to post game 2 and 3 so the finals posted is off. My final numbers non-posted are over 200Comment -
word of thought to all laker backers
Should Boston be up 3-2 ????????????????????????
Well, let's look at the previous 26 years of NBA Finals games under the 2-3-2 format and then "you tell me ".
Of 26 road teams in the series, just 6 (23%) were up 3-2 going into games 6 & 7.
So I ask you, should Boston be up 3-2 ?????????????
Of the 6, 4 won the title (66.7%)
Boston is up 3-2 for 1 reason and 1 reason only, "they are the better team ", the evidence tells us that the better team is the team that should be up 3-2, not the team that's got 3 home games to 2 for it's opponent.Comment -
OVER and Boston....hedge.Comment -
I like the over and BostonComment -
some good info jr and expertComment -
another thing is when Boston has there starting 5 like in 2008, they have never lost a series yet in the playoffs
Now i will shut up GL everyoneComment -
Think I might need to try and match you. 
