Who wants my NBA plays?

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 12:40 PM

LIke Florida to get out the broom today

**Jethro** · 05-12-10, 12:40 PM

ex, who you goin' with for nba tonight?

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Jethro

ex, who you goin' with for nba tonight?

the under dog has won last 5 out of 6 here, got to go with Lebron again, thats a lean right now not

confirmed

**Jae iLL** · 05-12-10, 12:50 PM

they playin tonight??

**Jethro** · 05-12-10, 12:53 PM

just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!

**Jethro** · 05-12-10, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Jethro

just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!

also did phils RL -125. Halladay is pitching, couldnt resist!

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 01:14 PM

good job jethro I am on Phil to

**JR007** · 05-12-10, 01:16 PM

I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs.
I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah.
Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS!
Who's to blame?
Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court).
But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves.
Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places.
The market prices are a function of several factors:

What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting

All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.

**jagermeister1** · 05-12-10, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Jethro

just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!

Hope you're wrong. I'm on a chase with the Cubs.

Note to self: Don't bet on the Cubs anymore. Culture of losing up there.

**Jethro** · 05-12-10, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by EXpertcapper

LIke Florida to get out the broom today

Originally posted by jagermeister1

Hope you're wrong. I'm on a chase with the Cubs. Note to self: Don't bet on the Cubs anymore. Culture of losing up there.

we shall see!

**SoV** · 05-12-10, 01:27 PM

Kobe's reaction to the Celtics-Cavs score:

**Jethro** · 05-12-10, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by SoV

Kobe's reaction to the Celtics-Cavs score:

HA!

**big0mar** · 05-12-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by JR007

I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs. I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah. Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS! Who's to blame? Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court). But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves. Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places. The market prices are a function of several factors:

What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting

All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.

You think the books didn't know what they were doing in the Orlando/Atlanta series?

**JR007** · 05-12-10, 03:07 PM

Oddsmakers didn't realize Orlando was that much better than Atlanta. Sharps didn't either. Squares aren't betting much pro basketball relative to the past. Those who are have been more focused on the games involving Kobe and LeBron. It all added up to pointspreads that look pretty insane in retrospect.
Was there ever a point Monday Night where "Orlando -6" felt like the right line in that game? Orlando jumped way ahead early and coasted. Sure, Atlanta made a run or two. But, the game was a continuation of a dominant series.
How about Utah -3½ over the Lakers in the TV nightcap? The Lakers took control early, and a Utah cover never felt like it had a chance. It ended up being a line that was completely detached from the reality of the night.
San Antonio -4 back on Sunday? Steve Nash had his eye bashed shut, yet Phoenix still felt like the true favorite most of the evening.
Ultimately, I think that these were the key influences that kept the lines so far away from reality:

Few could believe that Orlando was THAT much better than Atlanta. Nobody could believe their own eyes, so they went back to Power Ratings and statistics to assume a regression to the mean that was never going to happen.
Few could believe that Phoenix was ready to step up and control San Antonio to the degree they did. Sure, the Suns can play well when they're hot. They're not known for consistency. People bet on inconsistency and it didn't happen.
Many bettors (sharp and square) were anticipating "play for pride" efforts from Utah and San Antonio that just didn't happen. There was money being bet on San Antonio -4 and Utah -3½, as bad as those bets look now. How can you blame oddsmakers for their lines when there was support for the losing teams at those numbers? If there were oddsmakers who truly believed that Lakers -2 or Phoenix -1 made more sense, their employers would have been flooded with one-sided action.

The good news for YOU is that it's a player's market right now if you know how to evaluate NBA teams properly. This happens often in pro basketball for some reason. We saw it last year when Cleveland was a HUGE false favorite over Orlando in the Eastern finals. You may remember that the Lakers had big betting support in the finals two years ago when they lost to Boston. When market perceptions begin off track, there isn't time to get them on track.
How many games would it have taken for Phoenix to be -8 at home and -2 on the road? Or, Orlando -15 at home and -8 on the road? Or, any road team in a "clincher" game to be properly priced?

**DEGENR8** · 05-12-10, 03:07 PM

come on phils and marlins dont let me down!

**refrain87** · 05-12-10, 03:12 PM

Anyone gonna play the Angels tonight? I'm soo leaning towards angels..

**lakerboy** · 05-12-10, 03:14 PM

angels rule as home dogs. like the play.

**DEGENR8** · 05-12-10, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

angels rule as home dogs. like the play.

against tampa?

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 03:23 PM

Angels here tonight 4 star play

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 03:26 PM

Price for tb 6 era at la

**JR007** · 05-12-10, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by EXpertcapper

ok coachnap i figured people would realize this

how ya doing today JR see you commented in baseball forum

Thanks for asking Doc...I am fine..... shit happens......that is why you pay your Bills when you win (ALWAYS)
best to the wife

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 04:17 PM

Thanks JR007 best advice i heard yet

**refrain87** · 05-12-10, 04:20 PM

Playing angels! Lets cash it LB/EX!

**jagermeister1** · 05-12-10, 04:34 PM

Hey EX, what do you think about the Cavs/Celtics series price? -190 Celtics, +160 Cavs.

**paco** · 05-12-10, 04:38 PM

need a 3 spot by the Phillies coming up next

**magic8ball** · 05-12-10, 04:54 PM

Hey Paco, does your accountant let you deduct the breast bar as a gambling expence? Good call last night.

**dume walker** · 05-12-10, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by JR007

I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs.
I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah.
Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS!
Who's to blame?
Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court).
But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves.
Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places.

The market prices are a function of several factors:

What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting

All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.

So how does this translate into any opinion you might have on Cleveland/Boston Game 6? Are you feeling Cleveland has been overrated this year as they were when they took on Orlando last year? And if so, do you feel Boston is a strong pick tomorrow night?

**paco** · 05-12-10, 06:55 PM

Good luck today guys

**paste_me** · 05-12-10, 07:25 PM

Any leans on the cavs game tonight guys

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 07:50 PM

Boston -1 15X

**kobefanatic** · 05-12-10, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by EXpertcapper

Boston -1 15X

expert do you think cleveland is really done? and also what about the totals?

**Joe** · 05-12-10, 07:58 PM

ex

what bout the total

lmao same ques kobe

**rgga86** · 05-12-10, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by paste_me

Any leans on the cavs game tonight guys

the game is tomorrow isnt it?

**EXpertcapper** · 05-12-10, 08:41 PM

yes rgga86

**paco** · 05-12-10, 09:01 PM

Going to the club in a few guys. Will have a play by 1am