TGoat's Total Plays

[TGoat]

12/21/09

5 Games 4 Plays

mil/ind 198.5, 189, 9.1 (Under) (WIN)
sac/chi 197.5, 190, 7.3 (Under) (LOSS)
la/san 193.5, 207, 13.3 (Over) (LOSS)
cle/pho 209.5, 216, 6.6 (Over) (LOSS)

1-3 (25%) -2.09 Units

28-29 (49%) -3.55 Units

28-31-1 (47%) -5.55 Units (<---Adjusted for record keeping errors. Also found two typos. Games that should have been non-plays were entered as plays and both lost. Actually, both won if entered correctly. I'll let the losses stand.)

[lyon804]

9 games on the board for tommorow TGoat... You are due for probably 7 plays and a 5-2 6-1 type nite tommorow.

[TGoat]

12/22/09

9 Games 6 Plays

det/char 182, 192, 10.2 (Over)
chi/ny 197, 189, 7.6 (Under)
atl/min 203, 196, 7.5 (Under)
gs/mem 218.5, 201, 17.5 (Under)
port/dal 186, 194, 8.5 (Over)
okl/lake 194.5, 200, 5.4 (Over)

[hedgejob]

Liking the 2nd last play. Keep up the great work.

[TGoat]

12/22/09

9 Games 6 Plays

det/char 182, 192, 10.2 (Over) (LOSS)
chi/ny 197, 189, 7.6 (Under) (WIN)
atl/min 203, 196, 7.5 (Under) (WIN)
gs/mem 218.5, 201, 17.5 (Under) (LOSS)
port/dal 186, 194, 8.5 (Over) (LOSS)
okl/lake 194.5, 200, 5.4 (Over) (WIN)

3-3 (50%) -.27 Units

31-34 (48%) -5.82 Units

From now on I'm going to be keeping separate track of the unders; In totality, they seem to be doing better than the overs. For the life of the system they are 65-45 (59%) +14.1 Units. Since I started posting 21-17 (55%) +2.1 Units.

I'll start fresh with tonight's results.

2-1 (66%) +.82 Units

Also, there will be no plays on the 24th and 25th. I'll be back on the 26th.

Jingle Bells

[TGoat]

12/23/09

10 Games 5 Plays

min/nj 196.5, 190, 6.4 (Under)
gs/no 215, 198, 17.5 (Under)
port/san 187, 194, 7 (Over)
cle/sac 204, 213, 8.9 (Over)
hou/orl 200.5, 206, 5.4 (Over)

[TGoat]

12/23/09

Missed one

Added game:

hou/orl 200.5, 206, 5.4 (Over)

[hedgejob]

3-2 nice work

[TGoat]

12/23/09

10 Games 5 Plays

min/nj 196.5, 190, 6.4 (Under) (LOSS)
gs/no 215, 198, 17.5 (Under) (WIN)
port/san 187, 194, 7 (Over) (WIN)
cle/sac 204, 213, 8.9 (Over) (WIN)
hou/orl 200.5, 206, 5.4 (Over) (LOSS)

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

34-36 (49%) -5.09 Units

UNDERS:

1-1 (50%) -.09 Units

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

[TGoat]

Since the Christmas day plays are out early (4 of 5) I'll post them now.

5 Games 2 Plays

bos/orl 193,207, 13.5 (Over)
cle/lake 194, 211, 16.5 (Over)

[TGoat]

Since the Christmas day plays are out early (4 of 5) I'll post them now.

5 Games 2 Plays

bos/orl 193,207, 13.5 (Over) (LOSS)
cle/lake 194, 211, 16.5 (Over) (LOSS)

0-2 (0%) -2.0 Units

34-38-1 (47%) -7.09 Units


UNDERS:

------------------------

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

[TGoat]

12/26/09

10 Games 4 Plays

atl/ind 203.5, 197, 6.7 (Under)
san/mil 190.5, 204, 13.4 (Over)
phil/utah 203, 209, 6 (Over)
pho/gs/ 234, 207, 27 (Under)

[TGoat]

12/26/09

10 Games 4 Plays

atl/ind 203.5, 197, 6.7 (Under) (LOSS)
san/mil 190.5, 204, 13.4 (Over) (WIN)
phil/utah 203, 209, 6 (Over) (LOSS)
pho/gs/ 234, 207, 27 (Under) (LOSS) [game over after 3 quarters]

1-3 (25%) -2.09 Units

35-41-1 (46%) -9.19 Units


UNDERS:

0-2 (0%) -2.00 Units

3-4 (43%) -1.27 Units

[TGoat]

12/27/09

6 Games 2 Plays

ind/mia 196, 190, 6.1 (Under)
hou/cle 192, 198, 6.5 (Over)

[TGoat]

I've been back-testing my system for side plays, and it turns out that if I had been applying the same numbers to the sides that I apply to the totals, there are some profitable areas.

Since system started:

94-68 (58%) +17.45 Units

Since posting began:

31-26 (54%) +2.18 Units

So, I'll include these for a while and see how it goes.

12/27/09

6 Games 4 Plays

ind +7.5
hou +8.5
san -3
bos -8

[TGoat]

12/27/09

6 Games 2 Plays

ind/mia 196, 190, 6.1 (Under) (WIN)
hou/cle 192, 198, 6.5 (Over) (LOSS)

1-1 (50%) -.09 Units

36-42-1 (46%) -9.28 Units


UNDERS:

1-0 (100%) +.91 Units

4-4 (50%) -.36 Units


SIDES:

ind +7.5 (LOSS)
hou +8.5 (LOSS)
san -3 (WIN)
bos -8 (LOSS)

1-3 (25%) -2.09 Units

[TGoat]

As the season progresses it appears that my system for totals is giving out fewer and fewer daily plays. This is because the system is generating lines that are very close to the actual lines; often times within a point. The following are today's "non-play" games with the actual lines and the system lines next to it.

mil/char 186.5, 185
okl/nj 195.5, 195
wash/mem 208, 208
bos/gs 211, 210

So does this mean that the system is off for some reason on the actual plays or that the bookies line is off. Impossible for me to say at this point, so I'll just keep on posting the plays and see how things develop.

12/28/09

7 Games 3 Plays

lake/pho 217.5, 213, 4.6 (Under)
den/sac, 211, 204, 7.4 (Under)
phil/port 190, 195, 5.4 (Over)


SIDES:

OKL -5

[TGoat]

12/28/09

7 Games 3 Plays

lake/pho 217.5, 213, 4.6 (Under) (LOSS)
den/sac, 211, 204, 7.4 (Under) (WIN)
phil/port 190, 195, 5.4 (Over) (WIN)

2-1 (66%) +.82 Units

38-43-1 (47%) -8.46 Units

UNDERS:

5-4 (56%) +.55 Units


SIDES:

OKL -5 (WIN)

1-0 (100%) +.91 Units

2-3 (40%) -1.18 Units

...

[TGoat]

12/29/09

7 Games 6 Plays

cle/atl 193, 221, 27.7 (Over)
okl/wash 204, 210, 6 (Over)
ny/det 194, 188, 6.1 (Under)
ind/chi 194, 188, 5.7 (Under)
min/san 198, 202, 4.4 (Over)
gs/lake 217.5, 204, 13.5 (Under)


SIDES

okl -1
ny +5
ind +7
min +11
gs +11

[TGoat]

12/29/09

7 Games 6 Plays

cle/atl 193, 221, 27.7 (Over) (LOSS)
okl/wash 204, 210, 6 (Over) (WIN)
ny/det 194, 188, 6.1 (Under) (WIN)
ind/chi 194, 188, 5.7 (Under) (LOSS)
min/san 198, 202, 4.4 (Over) (WIN)
gs/lake 217.5, 204, 13.5 (Under) (LOSS)

3-3 (50%) -.27 Units

41-46 (47%) -8.73 Units

UNDERS:

1-2 (33%) -1.09 Units

6-6 (50%) -.55 Units


SIDES

okl -1 (WIN)
ny +5 (WIN)
ind +7 (LOSS)
min +11 (LOSS)
gs +11 (WIN)

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

5-5 (50%) -.46 Units

...

[TGoat]

12/30/09

10 Games 7 Plays

mil/orl 195, 184, 10.7 (Under)
mem, ind 208, 197, 11.3 (Under)
atl/cle 192, 205, 12.8 (Over)
ny/nj 198.5, 190, 8.2 (Under)
mia/no/ 193, 202, 8.6 (Over)
utah/min 203, 192, 10.6 (Under)
la/port 190, 196, 6.4 (Over)


SIDES

mem -3
atl +5.5
ny -2.5
mia -1
la +6.5

[doublec]

I'm beginning work on a little system of my own, and have quite a few games in common with you. I find it interesting that you didn't play the Phi/Sac game tonight, as it was one of my strongest unders. If you don't mind, what was your projected score?

[TGoat]

I'm beginning work on a little system of my own, and have quite a few games in common with you. I find it interesting that you didn't play the Phi/Sac game tonight, as it was one of my strongest unders. If you don't mind, what was your projected score?

phi/sac 205, 202, 3.4 (Under) [phi 95, sac 106 (rounded)]

[TGoat]

12/30/09

10 Games 7 Plays

mil/orl 195, 184, 10.7 (Under) (LOSS)
mem, ind 208, 197, 11.3 (Under) (LOSS)
atl/cle 192, 205, 12.8 (Over) (WIN)
ny/nj 198.5, 190, 8.2 (Under) (LOSS)
mia/no/ 193, 202, 8.6 (Over) (LOSS)
utah/min 203, 192, 10.6 (Under) (LOSS)
la/port 190, 196, 6.4 (Over) (WIN)

2-5 (29%) -3.18 Units

43-51-1 (46%) -11.91 Units

UNDERS:

0-4 (0%) -4.00 Units

6-10-1 (38%) -4.55 Units


SIDES

mem -3 (WIN)
atl +5.5 (WIN)
ny -2.5 (LOSS)
mia -1 (LOSS)
la +6.5 (WIN)

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

8-7-1 (53%) +.27 Units

...

[TGoat]

I find it interesting that you didn't play the Phi/Sac game tonight, as it was one of my strongest unders.

Not so easy, is it.

[TGoat]

12/31/09

5 Games 5 Plays

chi/det 184, 170, 13.7 (Under)
mia/san 195, 203, 8.1 (Over)
dal/hou 197, 205, 8.0 (Over)
utah/okl 198, 191, 7.2 (Under)
phil/la 196.5, 191, 5.6 (Under)


SIDES:

chi +3.5
mia +7.5
dal -1
phil +2

[doublec]

Not so easy, is it.

Not one bit! I was sitting around 65% through 20 games or so, and last night wrecked that. I thought I had the possessions per game down pretty well. Apparently not. Back to work!

[TGoat]

Not one bit! I was sitting around 65% through 20 games or so, and last night wrecked that. I thought I had the possessions per game down pretty well. Apparently not. Back to work!

Don't expect to hit anywhere near 65% long term. 55-58% is enough to get the money over a large sample of games.

Here's an example:

Assuming you're laying 11/10, let's say you average betting 5 games a day for 350 days a year. That's 1750 games. If you hit 55%, you'll win 963 games and lose 787. Result:

963 *.909=+875 Units
781*1 =-787 Units
Net Units Won =+88 Units

Anyone who hits these kinds of numbers can be considered a professional.

[Notice what happens if you're able to hit 57% winners. +155 Units]

[doublec]

I have absolutely no expectations of ever keeping up these kinds of numbers. I've just been plain lucky. Athletes aren't consistent enough for any simulator to be that accurate, although anything generating positive units is better than what I have been doing.

My main focus at the moment has been getting poss. per game down, which I feel like is the most important stat (along with efficiency) at making correct O/U picks. I had been pretty happy with back testing, but I'm obviously not there yet.

[TGoat]

12/31/09

5 Games 5 Plays

chi/det 184, 170, 13.7 (Under) (LOSS)
mia/san 195, 203, 8.1 (Over) (LOSS)
dal/hou 197, 205, 8.0 (Over) (LOSS)
utah/okl 198, 191, 7.2 (Under) (WIN)
phil/la 196.5, 191, 5.6 (Under)(WIN)

2-3 (40%) -1.18 Units

45-54-1 (45%) -13.10 Units


UNDERS:

2-1 (67%) +.82 Units

8-11-1 (42%) -3.73 Units


SIDES:

chi +3.5 (WIN)
mia +7.5 (LOSS)
dal -1 (LOSS)
phil +2 (LOSS)

1-3 (25%) -2.09 Units

9-10-1 (47%) -1.82 Units

A few notes:

I have not made one tweak to my system since it kicked in. Obvioulsy, for those who are still watching, you are witnessing a train wreck. However, I am going to keep on posting for as long as I can. I have learned several things from doing this, plus it keeps me honest.

My system did very well toward the beginning of the season, and his now starting to regress. Perhaps the lines were weak early on, or maybe the teams hadn't solidified their playing style yet. Who knows. As the year progresses, and the lines get sharper, the games probably get tougher and tougher to beat.

Of course this is all just speculation and a guess. One thing that you do notice though and is hammered home rather convincingly is the power of the juice. Winning 40 games and losing 60 games puts you down 24 units. However, winning 60 games and losing 40 games only puts you up 15 units. If you go 50 and 50, which anyone should be able to do, you'll be down 4.55 Units.

Fading the 11/10 is a tough proposition no matter how you look at it. My hat is off to those who are successful in this business. It doesn't seem like much, but it's a very tough nut to overcome.

[TGoat]

I have absolutely no expectations of ever keeping up these kinds of numbers. I've just been plain lucky. Athletes aren't consistent enough for any simulator to be that accurate, although anything generating positive units is better than what I have been doing.

My main focus at the moment has been getting poss. per game down, which I feel like is the most important stat (along with efficiency) at making correct O/U picks. I had been pretty happy with back testing, but I'm obviously not there yet.

Your approach sounds good. There's a lot to it. A million different ways to come at it. Keep us posted if you hit on anything consistent.

[TGoat]

1/1/10

3 Games 1 Play

sac/lake 210, 205, 5.3 (Under)


SIDES:

ny +11
sac +12

[doublec]

TGoat, I'm exactly with you tonight except for the O/U on the Sac/LAL game tonight, where I had a one point over. Do you make your simulations to attempt to find weaknesses in the lines, or are they attempts at actually producing the final score of the games?

[TGoat]

1/1/10

3 Games 1 Play

sac/lake 210, 205, 5.3 (Under) (LOSS)

0-1 (0%) -1 Unit

45-55-1 (45%) -14.10 Units


UNDERS

8-12-1 (40%) -4.73 Units


SIDES:

ny +11 (WIN)
sac +12 (WIN)

2-0 (100%) +1.82 Units

11-10-1 (52.38%) +0.00 Units

...

[TGoat]

Do you make your simulations to attempt to find weaknesses in the lines, or are they attempts at actually producing the final score of the games?

The latter.