TGoat's Total Plays

TGoat · 12-15-09, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by iMxth3xbossx5000

Whats the record on your totals since you started?

My record since I started posting is:

13-8 (62%) +3.82 Units

My record since the system kicked in is:

91-66 (58%) +16.22 Units

Utilizing a 1,2,3 betting schema (as laid out in posts 15-16) and also a more conservative 1,2 betting method (see screen shot) the results for my posts would be + 6.09 Units for the 1,2,3 and +6.18 Units for the 1,2. (The 1,2 method is slightly higher because there have been two 3 unit plays, which have gone 1-1 so far.)

1,2,3 and 1,2 Unit betting methods since the system began are +35.71 Units and +25.17 Units respectively.

djiddish98 · 12-15-09, 09:10 AM

Your system seems remarkably good at picking even regardless of the projected difference - hitting 54% on the 0-4 is pretty impressive in itself. It's also nice to see that the farther away the projected is from the line, the greater the win %. You're doing good things here.

lcf · 12-15-09, 02:24 PM

Looking forward for today's play!!!

SpreadSniper · 12-15-09, 02:29 PM

Keep up the good work TG - its appreciated over here!

TGoat · 12-15-09, 02:59 PM

12/15/09

7 Games 4 Plays

nj/cle 196.5, 204, 7.4 (Over)
ny/char 196, 209, 13.2 (Over)
tor/mia 205.5, 193, 12.3 (Under)
san/pho 210, 216, 5.9 (Over)

2daBank · 12-15-09, 03:02 PM

i could have said this b4 already but tgoat what you are doing here is great and much appreciated

2daBank · 12-15-09, 03:03 PM

all over the tor/mia under and the ny/char over..lets keep getting this money

lcf · 12-15-09, 03:11 PM

I'm going to give my points to TGoat. He truly deserves it.

Better2Belucky · 12-15-09, 03:18 PM

So judging by the numbers NY/Char would be the best bet of the night correct?

I was just in another thread where math formulas were used to predict winners. With you everyone has the over under and with the other guy we have the winners.

Your amazing bro and your labor isn't going unnoticed.

lcf · 12-16-09, 01:38 AM

1-3 tonight

TGoat · 12-16-09, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

12/15/09

7 Games 4 Plays

nj/cle 196.5, 204, 7.4 (Over) (LOSS)
ny/char 196, 209, 13.2 (Over) (LOSS)
tor/mia 205.5, 193, 12.3 (Under) (LOSS)
san/pho 210, 216, 5.9 (Over) (WIN)

1-3 (25%) -2.09 Units

14-11 (56%) +1.73 Units

TGoat · 12-16-09, 12:43 PM

12/16/09

12 Games 8 Plays

mem/atl 207, 218, 10.8 (Over)
char/ind 192, 187, 5.1 (Under)
utah/nj 198, 184, 13.8 (Under)
lake/mil 198, 207, 9 (Over)
dal/okl 192.5, 201, 8.3 (Over)
hou/den 208, 202, 6.4 (Under)
wash/sac 213, 207, 6.1 (Under)
san/gs 214, 220, 6.1 (Over)

lyon804 · 12-16-09, 12:46 PM

Get them T-Goat! I am in agreement with you again on several. I always like the unders.

Better2Belucky · 12-16-09, 10:01 PM

Utah game was just awful. Combined they average 45 a quarter and then in the 4th they go for 61. Why did Utah foul wtih 3 seconds left? That killed the spread and killed me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TGoat · 12-17-09, 01:35 AM

Normally, I don't complain about bad luck or gloat over good luck. I think that the good and bad breaks, and the good and bad calls, break about even over the course of the year. The balls take funny bounces. Sometimes teams are on, and sometimes they're off. You don't always know who's going to show up.

My favorite Dr. Phil quote sums up this philosophy:

"What is...is."

But just this one time I can't help it!

Originally posted by TGoat

12/16/09

12 Games 8 Plays

mem/atl 207, 218, 10.8 (Over) (PUSH) <<--(Incredibly lucky to push)
char/ind 192, 187, 5.1 (Under) (LOSS)
utah/nj 198, 184, 13.8 (Under) (LOSS) <<--(I actually had 199, lost by 1 point)
lake/mil 198, 207, 9 (Over) (WIN) <<--(Overtime saves this one)
dal/okl 192.5, 201, 8.3 (Over) (LOSS)
hou/den 208, 202, 6.4 (Under) (LOSS) <<--(Thought I had this one; bad luck at the end)
wash/sac 213, 207, 6.1 (Under) (LOSS)<<--(To top it off I had SAC -3.5; how'd I do? Hint: Wash 109 SAC 112)
san/gs 214, 220, 6.1 (Over) (LOSS) <<--(GS didn't show up; what else is new)

1-6-1 (14%) -5.09 Units

15-17 (45%) -3.37 Units

Well, I'll leave it up to ya'all. Give up the ghost or stick it out for a while. These last two days were very depressing. You could have flipped coins and done better than that. And to top it off, if I wasn't incredibly lucky on two games it would have been a complete O-FER.

This same exact thing happened before earlier in the year. So I gave it up and put it away. When I came back to it about 10 days later and updated everything it just killed. There were several days where it swept.

The fluctuations are killers on the psyche. If you can handle the variance, you'll do OK, but who knows where this is going.

Don't forget that this is a system. It's a system grounded in logic, but systems do have a way of regressing to the mean.

Besides that, Bustabook is doing so well, I'd almost rather just help/watch him do his thing.

Let me know what you think.

2daBank · 12-17-09, 06:15 AM

keep doing your thing tgoat it was bound to level off a little id like to see what you come up with for 2marros gms. im pretty big on law of averages when you level off some is the most crucial time to push threw and trust your methods. i couldnt tell you how many times ive been hot ran into brick wall and let it discourage me or back me off the next set of gms that more often than not go back my direction. that is why you hear guys talking about money management(vital also hardest thing to learn) you have to be prepared for bad spots and be ready to fire back the next day. if you feel strongly about your capping you just gotta trust it and keep working.

TGoat · 12-17-09, 02:44 PM

12/17/09

3 Games 2 Plays

ny/chi 202.5, 194, 8.7 (Under)
pho/port 202.5, 195, 7.2 (Under)

Indecent · 12-17-09, 03:42 PM

Gotta keep on keeping on. You didn't put in all that work to skip out right before your big run, right!

GL

lyon804 · 12-17-09, 04:09 PM

[quote=lyon804;2741560]Mixed bag tonite T-Goat. Keep it going. When it runs bad in the future at times, and it will don't get discouraged. Numbers don't lie. I believe in what you are doing. I spend about 4 hours a day capping totals and we have been almost 100% in agreement since you started posting this. I love that I can check what somebody else has. The reason I say don't get discouraged is because I know highly intelligent people like you sometimes don't buy into what you are doing. My father has created many successful systems and he talks himself out of playing it. Me, I just do old fashioned grind handicapping and intuition because I am not very computer savy.

TGoat, this was one of my earlier post to you on the first page. Hate to sound like a know it all, but I knew this was coming. It happens to everybody. I don't care if you manually cap games like me, or play systems like you... Or hell just play by the seat of your pants like most do. It happens. Don't get discouraged! Keep moving forward. We all appreciate what you are doing. It's not like you are making promises to people and forcing them to play your games. Don't turn your back on your next 57-18 type run. We are still early in the game with this. Do us and yourself a favor... Run your numbers every nite and post your plays. Let the chips fall were they may. Variance is hard to beat consistently, but over time you can overcome it.

You owe nobody any apologies. You have been staightforward from the beginning and haven't made promises.

Do your thing. Post your picks. We will all have a better grasp on your system in a few months. Right now your data is very limited.

Keep it going man! Your 2 games under .500 after a bad run. Who cares?

That is why money management is vital. If everybody that is playing your games is doing this than they may be down just sugar money anyways.

Keep them coming

bustabook · 12-17-09, 06:51 PM

tgoat...

you should definately keep going. you don't even have a big enough sample to say whether or not the system is accurate or not.. it'd be a tragedy to abandon it before went hot because of one or two bad days.. give it a little time, then re-evaluate.. GL

TGoat · 12-18-09, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

12/17/09

3 Games 2 Plays

ny/chi 202.5, 194, 8.7 (Under) (WIN)
pho/port 202.5, 195, 7.2 (Under) (LOSS)

1-1 (50%) -.09 Units

16-18-1 (47%) -3.46 Units

2daBank · 12-18-09, 02:16 AM

the under was the right bet in the port gm all day tgoat. i wonder what your numbers had on orl/mia cause i really like under and played it.

TGoat · 12-18-09, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i wonder what your numbers had on orl/mia cause i really like under and played it.

orl/mia 199, 202, 2.9 (Over--NON PLAY) LOSS

TGoat · 12-18-09, 02:17 PM

12/18/09

11 Games 9 Plays

nj/tor 204, 193, 10.6 (Under)
phil/bos 195, 207 12.4 (Over)
mil/cle 192, 199, 7.3 (Over)
utah/atl 206.5, 213, 6.1 (Over)
sac/min 210.5, 197, 13.2 (Under)
den/no 202.5, 197, 5.9 (Under)
la/ny no play
ind/mem 209, 199, 10.1 (Under)
det/okl no play
hou/dal 200, 194, 5.8 (Under)
wash/gs 222, 205, 16.7 (Under)

2daBank · 12-18-09, 02:27 PM

i like alot of those tgoat. im a little worried how low you have sac/min going i was really liking that over...gl and keep up the good work

TGoat · 12-19-09, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

12/18/09

11 Games 9 Plays

nj/tor 204, 193, 10.6 (Under) (LOSS)
phil/bos 195, 207 12.4 (Over) (LOSS)
mil/cle 192, 199, 7.3 (Over) (LOSS)
utah/atl 206.5, 213, 6.1 (Over) (LOSS)
sac/min 210.5, 197, 13.2 (Under) (WIN)
den/no 202.5, 197, 5.9 (Under) (WIN)
la/ny no play
ind/mem 209, 199, 10.1 (Under) (WIN)
det/okl no play
hou/dal 200, 194, 5.8 (Under) (LOSS)
wash/gs 222, 205, 16.7 (Under) (LOSS)

3-6 (33%) -3.27 Units

19-24 (44%) -6.73 Units

TGoat · 12-19-09, 11:57 AM

12/19/09

9 Games 5 Plays

port/orl 192.5, 208, 15.9 (Over)
lake/nj 196.5, 192, 4.6 (Under)
atl/chi 196, 183, 12.7 (Under)
ind/san 204, 199, 5.1 (Under)
wash/pho 218, 211, 6.8 (Under)

lyon804 · 12-20-09, 12:30 AM

Nice Nite TGoat.. I got you at 3-2 and without the disaster closeout by the hawks that forced overtime you are 4-1. I did not see your picks because I wasn't around, but I actually had the under in the Hawks game and was feeling pretty good especially when they put up 86 total pts in first half. Hell, we didn't lose by a bunch and they went to overtime. Nevertheless a loss is a loss and i was pissed royally. I hate when I am on the wrong side of the money. Way too much money on the under in that game. Anyways, I think you are getting ready for a big run. Keep it going.

TGoat · 12-20-09, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

12/19/09

9 Games 5 Plays

port/orl 192.5, 208, 15.9 (Over) (LOSS)
lake/nj 196.5, 192, 4.6 (Under) (WIN)
atl/chi 196, 183, 12.7 (Under) (LOSS)
ind/san 204, 199, 5.1 (Under) (WIN)
wash/pho 218, 211, 6.8 (Under) (WIN)

3-2 (60%) +.73 Units

22-25-2 (47%) -5 Units

TGoat · 12-20-09, 12:27 PM

12/20/09

7 Games 6 Plays

no/tor 205.5, 198, 7.2 (Under)
den/mem 208.5, 292, 6.6 (Under)
port/mia 186, 293, 6.5 (Over
lake/det 189.5 202, 12.2 (Over)
min/bos 196, 201, 4.6 (Over)
cle/dal 188.5, 197, 8.7 (Over)

TGoat · 12-20-09, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by TGoat

12/20/09

7 Games 6 Plays

no/tor 205.5, 198, 7.2 (Under) (WIN)
den/mem 208.5, 292, 6.6 (Under) (WIN)
port/mia 186, 293, 6.5 (Over (WIN)
lake/det 189.5 202, 12.2 (Over) (LOSS)
min/bos 196, 201, 4.6 (Over) (WIN)
cle/dal 188.5, 197, 8.7 (Over) (WIN)

5-1 (83%) +3.55 Units

27-26-1 (51%) -1.46 Units

bustabook · 12-20-09, 10:59 PM

nice work tonight, Goat..

lyon804 · 12-20-09, 11:26 PM

Nice Nite TGoat... Here comes the run!!!

TGoat · 12-21-09, 01:47 PM

12/21/09

5 Games 4 Plays

mil/ind 198.5, 189, 9.1 (Under)
sac/chi 197.5, 190, 7.3 (Under)
la/san 193.5, 207, 13.3 (Over)
cle/pho 209.5, 216, 6.6 (Over)

lyon804 · 12-21-09, 02:09 PM

Maybe a big nite ahead? I see at least 2 winners!!Thanks Man!