These are system plays for totals only. Also included are my projected lines, the difference between my line and the official line, and the percentage level of confidence. In other words, going back since the system started, these are the historic winning percentages of the individual plays according to my algorithms.
Obviously, the greater the disparity between the official line and the projected line the higher the win percentage. Or so it's been thus far.
I'm going to be considering plays where my line and the bookies line differ by 4 points or more. Everything else will be a pass, even though all differences however tiny have shown a small profit (54%) over 204 games.
I'll try to post as close to post time as possible, because this would represent when I make my actual bets. Since I live in Las Vegas and bet here, usually around game time, that's when I'll (try) to post my plays. But there will be times when I post early because of time constraints. Either way, early or late, I don't think the results will be affected greatly one way or the other. But whenever I do post them, that will be the line I go by to judge the results.
I'll be using the Pinnacle lines from SBR Odds. [I had a sports book manger tell me that they often use BetCris or Pinny lines, and I've found the that the sports books lines here closely resemble the Pinny lines, although late money will shift the closing lines somewhat differently at times.]
Since I recommended not using multiple units for the various plays (even though the evidence strongly suggests some sort of increased unit multiple for the higher percentage plays) for now each play will be one unit. [I'm going to work on an algorithm for various unit sizes and it will probably be some sort of fractional unit increase. Ex: 1 unit, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0, 2.25, 2.5, 3.0, etc. But that will come later. After 50 or so games I'll start backtesting that method.]
12/11/09 11 Games 7 Plays
[The first total is the official line and the second total is my projected line. The number after that is the difference between the two. In the future I may just post screen shots of my spread sheet--attached--it's easier. The problem is that it's somewhat difficult to see. If anyone can suggest a way to make it bigger or more clear that would be appreciated.]
New Jersey/Indiana 198, 187, 11.4 (under) 61%
Houston/Philadelphia 193.5, 187, 6.0 (under) 59%
Golden State/Chicago 213.5, 192, 21.1 (under) 73%
Portland/Cleveland 187, 199, 12.1 (over) 61%
New York/New Orleans 213.5, 209, 4.4 (under) 57%
Orlando/Phoenix 212.5, 225, 12.1 (over) 61%
Atlanta/Toronto 209, 193, 15.7 (under) 65%
Obviously, the greater the disparity between the official line and the projected line the higher the win percentage. Or so it's been thus far.
I'm going to be considering plays where my line and the bookies line differ by 4 points or more. Everything else will be a pass, even though all differences however tiny have shown a small profit (54%) over 204 games.
I'll try to post as close to post time as possible, because this would represent when I make my actual bets. Since I live in Las Vegas and bet here, usually around game time, that's when I'll (try) to post my plays. But there will be times when I post early because of time constraints. Either way, early or late, I don't think the results will be affected greatly one way or the other. But whenever I do post them, that will be the line I go by to judge the results.
I'll be using the Pinnacle lines from SBR Odds. [I had a sports book manger tell me that they often use BetCris or Pinny lines, and I've found the that the sports books lines here closely resemble the Pinny lines, although late money will shift the closing lines somewhat differently at times.]
Since I recommended not using multiple units for the various plays (even though the evidence strongly suggests some sort of increased unit multiple for the higher percentage plays) for now each play will be one unit. [I'm going to work on an algorithm for various unit sizes and it will probably be some sort of fractional unit increase. Ex: 1 unit, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0, 2.25, 2.5, 3.0, etc. But that will come later. After 50 or so games I'll start backtesting that method.]
12/11/09 11 Games 7 Plays
[The first total is the official line and the second total is my projected line. The number after that is the difference between the two. In the future I may just post screen shots of my spread sheet--attached--it's easier. The problem is that it's somewhat difficult to see. If anyone can suggest a way to make it bigger or more clear that would be appreciated.]
New Jersey/Indiana 198, 187, 11.4 (under) 61%
Houston/Philadelphia 193.5, 187, 6.0 (under) 59%
Golden State/Chicago 213.5, 192, 21.1 (under) 73%
Portland/Cleveland 187, 199, 12.1 (over) 61%
New York/New Orleans 213.5, 209, 4.4 (under) 57%
Orlando/Phoenix 212.5, 225, 12.1 (over) 61%
Atlanta/Toronto 209, 193, 15.7 (under) 65%
