Keel's NBA Parlay System II

**keel44** · 10-31-15, 05:28 PM

October 31

Parlay 06-B: Blazers -3 with Blazers OVER 203.5 (0.86 to win 2.24)
Parlay 07-A: Kings +10.5 with Kings UNDER 214.5 (0.35 to win 0.91)

**bferony** · 10-31-15, 06:47 PM

well I truly think that really the onlyn way you can tighten things up is to really make the best pics possible especially after you get in to a BParlay and by opening up a 4Team open parlay somewhere it enhances your chances so much more both in units and in the strength of your selections and how often you complete a run I know you think that you're going to get hot and eventually you will but somebody who is a good handicapper or has a strong opinion on the games that they're putting in there is going to get hot quicker than you and more times than you that's all I'm trying to say I have read every post you have made over the last year and a half or so from your baseball and football season in the last day or so and if I didn't know what has happened it would be excruciating. look the money management part of your system is phenomenal and I know you're partial to the way you pick your pics but you are not maximizing your units or your pics the way you are doing it.
why wouldn't you want to tweak your system a little bit if it would get you more units and more runs, more flexibility and options and more success its really not working the way it really could or should be to maximize its potential it might get you 10 to 15 units after 4 months or so but I really believe that this thing should be producing 40 to 50 to 60 units with the right preparation or help in making your pics especially when you have a bparlay available in a4 team open parlay I am just trying to help you buddy and I am NOT trying to be mean at all You absolutely have the money management of this system down but you definitely need help in how and what you are picking to put in your parlay but you don't really seem to be open to doing it anyway but the way you doing it and saying your learning and getting better. and you have every right to do it the way you want. But there are a number of better ways and more importantly much more successful way of choosing what teams go in your parlays
I wish you could see this and maybe that's why I spent so much time today trying to explain it to you because I know how much happier and how much more successful you would be if you understood what I was saying

**keel44** · 10-31-15, 11:05 PM

* I do not believe in rating one play higher than another. Being more selective is fool's gold. It just wastes more time. You gotta trust me on this. If it warrants a play? Play it. Don't force things, but don't fool yourself that a play is better just because you "feel" better about it.

* A capper who hits at a higher rate than me will indeed produce better results. I know that. But where are they? Who are they? How much do I gotta pay? Will they continue hitting at a higher rate? Can you totally give your full trust to a stranger's plays? Don't you think I already thought of this?

* Yes, a website offering better payouts on parlays will be more profitable. Of course it would be. I am not changing books right now, but it is something I might need to do in the future. There are more things to look at in a book than just parlay payouts.

* I totally acknowledge that my picks need help. My picks produce very average results. I want a way to get clusters of wins while following an automated bet selection. That means no one is choosing anything. I follow a set of rules and place the bets where the rules tell me. That is what I am looking into. That is what I am sort of doing here, with me following these 4 teams, and placing bets only in those games. I want ideas about this kind of stuff.

**keel44** · 11-01-15, 12:32 AM

October 31

Parlay 06-B: Blazers -3 with Blazers OVER 203.5 (0.86 to win 2.24)
Parlay 07-A: Kings +10.5 with Kings UNDER 214.5 (0.35 to win 0.91)

3 B Bets .... 3 losses

**keel44** · 11-01-15, 08:47 AM

November 1

Parlay 08-A: Magic +7.5 with Magic UNDER 201 (0.37 to win 0.96)
Parlay 09-A: Spurs -5.5 with Celtics OVER 200 (0.37 to win 0.95)

**oilcountry99** · 11-01-15, 01:09 PM

Keep working KEEL, you'll get it dialed in.

**keel44** · 11-01-15, 09:37 PM

November 1

Parlay 08-A: Magic +7.5 with Magic UNDER 201 (0.37 to win 0.96)
Parlay 09-A: Spurs -5.5 with Celtics OVER 200 (0.37 to win 0.95)

Magic are 0-3 on the year but 3-0 against the spread.

**keel44** · 11-02-15, 11:48 AM

November 2

Parlay 10-A: T-Wolves -4 with Blazers UNDER 203 (0.38 to win 0.99)

**BigEasyThug** · 11-02-15, 11:54 AM

Good work with the parlay yesterday Keel that the way too own the books ass!

**keel44** · 11-03-15, 12:04 AM

November 2

Parlay 10-A: T-Wolves -4 with Blazers UNDER 203 (0.38 to win 0.99)

**keel44** · 11-03-15, 11:26 AM

November 3

Parlay 11-A: Grizzlies -5 with Kings UNDER 198 (0.39 to win 1.01)
Parlay 08-B: Magic +4.5 with Magic UNDER 206.5 (0.96 to win 2.50)

**keel44** · 11-04-15, 12:31 AM

November 3

Parlay 11-A: Grizzlies -5 with Kings UNDER 198 (0.39 to win 1.01)
Parlay 08-B: Magic +4.5 with Magic UNDER 206.5 (0.96 to win 2.50)

Too sweeeet

**Hakki77** · 11-04-15, 08:20 AM

Thanks for this

Well done

**oilcountry99** · 11-04-15, 09:18 AM

KEEL

**keel44** · 11-04-15, 12:15 PM

November 4

Parlay 08-C: Rockets -8 with Jazz -5.5 (3.46 to win 9.00)
Parlay 11-B: Suns -9 with Kings OVER 208 (1.01 to win 2.63)
Parlay 12-A: Pacers +2.5 with Celtics UNDER 205 (0.39 to win 1.01)

**bferony** · 11-04-15, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by keel44

November 4

Parlay 08-C: Rockets -8 with Jazz -5.5 (3.46 to win 9.00)
Parlay 11-B: Suns -9 with Suns OVER 208 (1.01 to win 2.63)
Parlay 12-A: Pacers +2.5 with Celtics UNDER 205 (0.39 to win 1.01)

good luck

**skyscrapers** · 11-04-15, 11:11 PM

Should have switched your C bet plays with the B bet plays

**keel44** · 11-04-15, 11:27 PM

November 4

Parlay 08-C: Rockets -8 with Jazz -5.5 (3.46 to win 9.00)
Parlay 11-B: Suns -9 with Kings OVER 208 (1.01 to win 2.63)
Parlay 12-A: Pacers +2.5 with Celtics UNDER 205 (0.39 to win 1.01)

I wanted to include the Magic game in the C bet because I got there because of them. I wasn't confident in the total so I paired them with the Blazers. All in all, it was a profitable day. I just failed to seal the deal.

**fitguy67** · 11-05-15, 12:31 AM

^yes, and with the demise of one 'C' dream...another one (as well as another 'B') is born...

so the makings of another fun "ABC" day are in the works...

**keel44** · 11-05-15, 11:31 AM

November 5

Parlay 13-A: Blazers +4 with Blazers OVER 194 (0.39 to win 1.01)

I am having a hard time getting a feel for the Blazers so far. So I am going to go against my instincts here. My logic tells me to go opposite to what I have done. My logic has been faulty with the Blazers so far. So maybe the opposite is in order.

**keel44** · 11-06-15, 03:03 AM

November 5

Parlay 13-A: Blazers +4 with Blazers OVER 194 (0.39 to win 1.01)

The key word for me is ..... correlation

**FlyinAir** · 11-06-15, 03:48 AM

Good job, keep plugging away - I like this system and think you'll end up positive once again at the end of the season

**Hakki77** · 11-06-15, 04:34 PM

Good work so far

Any Picks for today?

**keel44** · 11-06-15, 06:51 PM

November 6

Parlay 14-A: Magic +6 with Magic UNDER 197 (0.39 to win 1.01)
Parlay 12-B: Wizards +1 with Celtics UNDER 210 (1.01 to win 2.63)

Be back a little later for the Kings.....sorry for the delay

**keel44** · 11-06-15, 07:57 PM

November 6

Parlay 14-A: Magic +6 with Magic UNDER 197 (0.39 to win 1.01)
Parlay 12-B: Wizards +1 with Celtics UNDER 210 (1.01 to win 2.63)
Parlay 13-B: Kings +4.5 with Kings OVER 217 (1.01 to win 2.63)

No C bet tonight

**keel44** · 11-07-15, 02:27 AM

November 6

Parlay 14-A: Magic +6 with Magic UNDER 197 (0.39 to win 1.01)
Parlay 12-B: Wizards +1 with Celtics UNDER 210 (1.01 to win 2.63)
Parlay 13-B: Kings +4.5 with Kings OVER 217 (1.01 to win 2.63)

I knew the Kings would show some fight. So no regrets there.

**keel44** · 11-07-15, 11:23 AM

November 7

Parlay 14-B: Magic -4 with Magic UNDER 193.5 (1.01 to win 2.63)

~~Parlay 11-C:~~ Warriors 1st Half -8 with ? (3.64 to win 3.47)
* straight bet to be pressed into another straight bet at a later date *

**FlyinAir** · 11-07-15, 02:33 PM

Keep plugging

**keel44** · 11-07-15, 11:52 PM

November 7

Parlay 14-B: Magic -4 with Magic UNDER 193.5 (1.01 to win 2.63)

<del>Parlay 11-C: ~~</del>Warriors 1st Half -8 with ? (3.64 to win 3.47)~~ {PUSH}

**keel44** · 11-08-15, 12:45 PM

November 8

Let us try this again ... straight bet tonight pressed into another straight bet tomorrow.

Parlay 11-C: Blazers -1.5 with ? (3.64 to win 3.31)

**qweretyq** · 11-08-15, 01:03 PM

I like the management, but one question.

What is the max drawdown you have had at any point in a particular season? What about on average?

**fitguy67** · 11-08-15, 11:21 PM

when's the last time an NBA team got beat by 30 points in a 4th quarter...41-11...unfrackin'believable...

**skyscrapers** · 11-08-15, 11:24 PM

Unbelievable 41-11 run in the 4th. With a push last night just can't even buy a win lately.

**keel44** · 11-08-15, 11:35 PM

November 8

Let us try this again ... straight bet tonight pressed into another straight bet tomorrow.

Parlay 11-C: Blazers -1.5 with ? (3.64 to win 3.31)

Up by 13 going into the 4th and the bottom fell out. I just can't kick myself for my decision on that one.

**keel44** · 11-08-15, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by qweretyq

I like the management, but one question.

What is the max drawdown you have had at any point in a particular season? What about on average?

I have lost a bankroll of 50 units once, but I stormed back with a +70 unit run. On average, it usually goes pretty deep maybe 30 units plus. Don't be afraid of these numbers, it is a slow negative grind with one big leap forward into profits.