NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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  • Tillos
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-28-14
    • 179

    #806
    This 'SDQL' shows that the HF scores an average well over 104pts; and winning by an average of 10pts (after coming off 3 straight 100+ games). This HF has scored over over 104 points is seven straight games. While their opp has allowed 100+ in 13 STRAIGHT games.

    HF and p: points>100 and ppp: points>100 and ppp: points>100 and op:H and season=2013


    The Team Total Over might be a safe bet here
    Comment
    • Tillos
      SBR High Roller
      • 03-28-14
      • 179

      #807
      Originally posted by Tillos
      Play for Sunday. 48-9 record.

      p:AW and p:margin>14 and pp:AW and pp:margin>14 and H
      Originally posted by JAnthony

      Heads up for your effort, but clearly that SU record is mostly made by heavy favourites. If you shorten the line -6<=line<=0, doesn't look so good anymore.

      It's basically a working trend for 7 or more point favourites, but Portland is only 2 points favourites, which is close to ML.

      p:AW and p:margin>14 and pp:AW and pp:margin>14 and H and line<=-7
      Thanks, you're right. Good call.
      Could go either way though.
      May be getting good value here with such a small line, or take the other team;
      cause it's the first time the line has been this low for this trend.
      Comment
      • JAnthony
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-25-13
        • 635

        #808
        Originally posted by Tillos
        Thanks, you're right. Good call.
        Could go either way though.
        May be getting good value here with such a small line, or take the other team;
        cause it's the first time the line has been this low for this trend.
        Of course it can go either way, but what I'm trying to say is that this trend does not suit particularly well lines shorter than -7.
        Comment
        • JR007
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-21-10
          • 5279

          #809
          Comment
          • JR007
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-21-10
            • 5279

            #810
            have a fair question for you guys, have you experienced losing streaks using sdql, and if so can you give me a duration ??? 5,6 or 7 games long ?? like anything else it depends on your selections.....just wondering as I have seen the newsletter at the other place have bad runs using this over the years in( NFL) but that was a different sport.......unlike modeling, can't really have a margin of safety..using sdql.......outside of sample size.....and how much of a sample size do you need to base a play on ??? thanks
            Comment
            • b1slickguy
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-24-11
              • 11959

              #811
              Originally posted by JR007
              have a fair question for you guys, have you experienced losing streaks using sdql, and if so can you give me a duration ??? 5,6 or 7 games long ?? like anything else it depends on your selections.....just wondering as I have seen the newsletter at the other place have bad runs using this over the years in( NFL) but that was a different sport.......unlike modeling, can't really have a margin of safety..using sdql.......outside of sample size.....and how much of a sample size do you need to base a play on ??? thanks
              \


              Streaks will still occur both ways. When a "super" query produces a few losses in a row I try to identify if any further tweaking is needed and will monitor it instead of playing. I will re-save it labeled accordingly. I do not have a set number of losses at which this occurs because some queries are high volume plays and some may only have 3-4 plays in an entire season. This in itself is all part of the experience using sdql and a skill that has nothing to do with the language. See Mako's post #170 for some guidelines or rules for queries. Great inquiry, JR.
              Good luck.
              Comment
              • Wojo
                SBR MVP
                • 03-19-10
                • 1764

                #812
                Originally posted by Tillos
                This 'SDQL' shows that the HF scores an average well over 104pts; and winning by an average of 10pts (after coming off 3 straight 100+ games). This HF has scored over over 104 points is seven straight games. While their opp has allowed 100+ in 13 STRAIGHT games.

                HF and p: points>100 and ppp: points>100 and ppp: points>100 and op:H and season=2013


                The Team Total Over might be a safe bet here
                Hey Tillos,
                You made a mistake that I am guilty of at times. In your query, you wanted to show a team that has scored over 100 pts 3 games in a row. However, your second and third games show "pppoints". You should have typed "ppoints" for Game #2.

                It changes the results quite a bit.

                GL2A!
                Comment
                • JAnthony
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-25-13
                  • 635

                  #813
                  This seems very tempting due to the short line and knowing Cavs line-up at this moment. Though might be a trap line, because Pacers are being heavily backed by the public. Not sure I'm gonna play this, but it's worth a look.

                  WP>=65 and 30<=o:WP<=40 and A and game number>=60 and -6<=line<=-4
                  Comment
                  • comon kryptonite
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 01-14-14
                    • 95

                    #814
                    wouldn't the over be a safe play if this query plays out as projected??
                    Comment
                    • JMon
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9800

                      #815
                      Originally posted by comon kryptonite
                      wouldn't the over be a safe play if this query plays out as projected??
                      Throw a total filter in there of 189< and see how low totals do on the O/U in that particular situation.
                      Comment
                      • JMon
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-11-09
                        • 9800

                        #816
                        Nothing good for me today...

                        Lean (only) Orl un 195, Ind ov 183.5 and Chi ov 182.5
                        Comment
                        • JAnthony
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-25-13
                          • 635

                          #817
                          Here's one from previous posts. My apologies, since I don't know to whom the credit for this belongs.

                          H and season>2009 and line>5 and p:margin<-15 and op:margin>5 and p:A and pp:A
                          Comment
                          • JAnthony
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 11-25-13
                            • 635

                            #818
                            tS(A, N=4)=4 and H and (4-rest-p:rest)=3 and o:rest>0 and game number>=65 and P:L

                            An interesting situation here.
                            Comment
                            • JMon
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-11-09
                              • 9800

                              #819
                              Originally posted by JAnthony
                              tS(A, N=4)=4 and H and (4-rest-p:rest)=3 and o:rest>0 and game number>=65 and P:L

                              An interesting situation here.
                              Ya it's interesting there hasn't been a fav in this situation since 2008
                              Comment
                              • JAnthony
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-25-13
                                • 635

                                #820
                                Originally posted by JMon
                                Ya it's interesting there hasn't been a fav in this situation since 2008
                                Yeah, looked into that as well, but there have been situations around PK, since -1.5 is pretty much the same thing, might have a small play.
                                Comment
                                • JAnthony
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-25-13
                                  • 635

                                  #821
                                  p:WD and pp:WD and tA(margin, N=2)>=5 and op:WP>=55 and game number>=65 and season>=2007

                                  Road favourite day for me.
                                  Comment
                                  • Tillos
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-28-14
                                    • 179

                                    #822
                                    Originally posted by JAnthony
                                    tS(A, N=4)=4 and H and (4-rest-p:rest)=3 and o:rest>0 and game number>=65 and P:L

                                    An interesting situation here.
                                    I love this team tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • figue
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-23-10
                                      • 2524

                                      #823
                                      damn missed this winner yesterday

                                      A and P:L and Po: points > 74 and WP >= 40 and WP <= 49 and o:WP > 29 and o:WP < 54 and rest > 0 and season = 2013
                                      Comment
                                      • figue
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-23-10
                                        • 2524

                                        #824
                                        another missed winner for me today

                                        D and p:margin >= 30 and rest < 2 and season = 2013

                                        1-7-0 (-3.56, 12.5%) avg line: 5.2
                                        Comment
                                        • figue
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-23-10
                                          • 2524

                                          #825
                                          Originally posted by JAnthony
                                          p:WD and pp:WD and tA(margin, N=2)>=5 and op:WP>=55 and game number>=65 and season>=2007

                                          Road favourite day for me.
                                          Comment
                                          • Tillos
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 03-28-14
                                            • 179

                                            #826
                                            I thank JAnthony for helping guide my SDQL's. They both won though.
                                            Comment
                                            • JAnthony
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-25-13
                                              • 635

                                              #827
                                              Originally posted by Tillos
                                              I thank JAnthony for helping guide my SDQL's. They both won though.
                                              No problem, man!

                                              Went 3-1 myself with my own finds for yesterday, left one total pick unposted, since it was only a 64% over trend, but played it anyway. Glad I stayed away from that PHX v. LAL game, these two teams are simply too unpredictable to draw any logical assumptions there.
                                              Comment
                                              • JAnthony
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-25-13
                                                • 635

                                                #828
                                                Two tasty trends pointing on Kings tonight. Both situations were posted previously by JMon, if I'm not mistaking.

                                                p:L and op:L and A and rest>=1 and 0<=line<=3 and P:margin>=5 and season>=2010

                                                A and tA(o: points)>=103 and p:M2<=-10 and pp:M2<=-10 and o:rest<3 and rest<=3 and line<=14
                                                Comment
                                                • green7
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 10-21-10
                                                  • 190

                                                  #829
                                                  Good day

                                                  Took the day off except had the bright idea to take the Suns while on my lunch break.

                                                  Should have taken a walk in the park instead.

                                                  I'm interested in querying the turnaround game with the Celtics and Bulls.

                                                  Do any of you professors at "Query University" have anything for that?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • green7
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 10-21-10
                                                    • 190

                                                    #830
                                                    Interesting tidbit

                                                    When running how individual teams who both are playing on no rest this year which happens with Bulls/Celts tomorrow.

                                                    team and season=2013 and rest=0 and o:rest=0.

                                                    Take a look at the totals.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Tillos
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 03-28-14
                                                      • 179

                                                      #831
                                                      Simple, but wow. Few other but I like these two the best.

                                                      19-1 record:
                                                      team=Pacers and p:A and H and rest>=0 and season=2013
                                                      17-0 record:
                                                      team=Pacers and p:A and H and rest>=0 and o:rest=1 and op:W and season>=2012
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Tillos
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 03-28-14
                                                        • 179

                                                        #832
                                                        Green,

                                                        I played a turnaround situation earlier this year involving another team from the Central; the first game went over, and so did the second. But yet again the under is 26-11 at the United Center this season; 5-2 on the under when Bulls are playing on zero days rest.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Tillos
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 03-28-14
                                                          • 179

                                                          #833
                                                          Worth Monday Note: Damn!

                                                          Nuggets have allowed 100+points in seven straight games..and have allowed 100+points in 15 straight home games dating back to January.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • green7
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 10-21-10
                                                            • 190

                                                            #834
                                                            Think I figured it out

                                                            po:team=o:team and p:HL and AD and division!=o:division and rest=0


                                                            6-8 (-4.21, 42.9%)
                                                            10-4-0 (2.57, 71.4%) avg line: 6.8
                                                            10-4-0 (6.46, 71.4%) avg total: 192.0
                                                            36.36 44.6 18.00 76.1 6.43 38.6 4.14 11.00 40.14 21.29 19.43 12.43 24.8 25.8 21.5 23.8 97.1
                                                            37.64 47.5 19.43 73.3 6.64 38.6 5.43 10.21 41.71 20.29 23.07 12.64 25.4 25.5 22.4 27.6 101.4
                                                            Feb 02, 1997 Sun 1996 Cavaliers Heat away 76-80 0&0 5.5 167.0 -4 1.5 -11.0 -4.8 -6.2 L W U False
                                                            Jan 24, 1998 Sat 1997 Warriors Grizzlies away 96-107 0&0 6.5 184.0 -11 -4.5 19.0 7.2 11.8 L L O False
                                                            Nov 24, 2001 Sat 2001 Pelicans Magic away 103-101 0&0 10.0 193.0 2 12.0 11.0 11.5 -0.5 W W O False
                                                            Dec 03, 2003 Wed 2003 Magic Pelicans away 91-106 0&0 9.0 187.0 -15 -6.0 10.0 2.0 8.0 L L O 0
                                                            Jan 28, 2006 Sat 2005 Nuggets Clippers away 79-112 0&0 2.5 195.0 -33 -30.5 -4.0 -17.2 13.2 L L U 0
                                                            Feb 11, 2007 Sun 2006 Supersonics Kings away 114-103 0&0 4.5 207.5 11 15.5 9.5 12.5 -3.0 W W O 0
                                                            Apr 05, 2008 Sat 2007 Hawks Seventysixers away 92-85 0&0 5.0 204.5 7 12.0 -27.5 -7.8 -19.8 W W U 0
                                                            Nov 22, 2008 Sat 2008 Thunder Pelicans away 97-109 0&0 15.5 190.5 -12 3.5 15.5 9.5 6.0 L W O 0
                                                            Dec 27, 2008 Sat 2008 Nets Bobcats away 114-103 0&0 3.0 190.5 11 14.0 26.5 20.2 6.2 W W O 1
                                                            Dec 30, 2009 recap Wed 2009 Hawks Cavaliers away 101-106 0&0 6.5 193.0 -5 1.5 14.0 7.8 6.2 L W O 0
                                                            Nov 10, 2010 recap Wed 2010 Nets Cavaliers away 95-87 0&0 4.5 193.0 8 12.5 -11.0 0.8 -11.8 W W U 0
                                                            Jan 02, 2012 recap Mon 2011 Wizards Celtics away 92-100 0&0 11.0 187.5 -8 3.0 4.5 3.8 0.8 L W O 0
                                                            Nov 30, 2013 recap Sat 2013 Jazz Suns away 112-104 0&0 8.5 195.0 8 16.5 21.0 18.8 2.2 W W O 0
                                                            Feb 19, 2014 recap Wed 2013 Pistons Bobcats away 98-116 0&0 3.0 201.0 -18 -15.0 13.0 -1.0 14.0 L L O 0
                                                            Mar 31, 2014 recap Mon 2013 Celtics Bulls away 0&0 10.5 181.0
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dmitean
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 03-30-11
                                                              • 364

                                                              #835
                                                              Wanted to ask your help if I can. I want to check, how different teams or more accurate - different styles of play, react to B2B games.

                                                              More precise - I believe that good defensive teams with poor offense should do better than good offensive teams with bad defense and that teams that play more in the paint and take mid range shots, will do better than teams that live and die by three point shooting.

                                                              Reason is that tired legs mean that shots from distance usually come off short, while playing in the paint - just about will and desire.
                                                              Also, on offense you can catch a good day or a bad day - and fatigue might have something to do with that. But teams that are proud of their defense (Pacers, Bulls, Memphis style of teams) - will bring their A game to defense no matter what.

                                                              FGP- means percentage of the field goals, but how do I write, keeping rival teams below certain points number? For example, Pacers allow their rivals only 91.7 points - how do I write it in SDQL?

                                                              Also, TPA means three pointers attempted, but when I try to put it in to query - it doesn't give me anything interesting - cause Memphis should be on the list, but it doesn't.
                                                              I write and TPA<15 for example and probably doing something wrong.
                                                              How do I write it correctly?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • green7
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 10-21-10
                                                                • 190

                                                                #836
                                                                Some of the professors here should be able to help steer you in the right direction.

                                                                I can say that two bad teams playing back to back play high scoring games, because those that play or have played ball know that it's fun to play offense and a lot of work and not so fun to hustle back first, and then play defense.

                                                                Thibodeau for Bulls thinks you are breaking the rules if you are having fun, so his teams usually play low scoring games on back to backs.

                                                                tA(W)<.5 and oA(W)<.5 and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and HF and division!=o:division
                                                                Comment
                                                                • GiveMeaBJ
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-08-09
                                                                  • 8449

                                                                  #837
                                                                  Thanks for another few wins yesterday guys keep up the great work. This stuff is very hard but I am still trying to learn.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JMon
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                                    • 9800

                                                                    #838
                                                                    Originally posted by dmitean

                                                                    FGP- means percentage of the field goals, but how do I write, keeping rival teams below certain points number? For example, Pacers allow their rivals only 91.7 points - how do I write it in SDQL?

                                                                    Also, TPA means three pointers attempted, but when I try to put it in to query - it doesn't give me anything interesting - cause Memphis should be on the list, but it doesn't.
                                                                    I write and TPA<15 for example and probably doing something wrong.
                                                                    How do I write it correctly?
                                                                    you would a summative here. see sdql dot com and look up summative heading. team=Pacers and tA(o: points)<=91.7
                                                                    Defense allows below or equal to 91.7 a game.


                                                                    You have to use a game reference to make it predictive, otherwise you are only seeing the actual game it happened.

                                                                    Game Reference:

                                                                    p => team's previous game
                                                                    op => opp's previous game
                                                                    P => previous match up
                                                                    n => team's next game
                                                                    on => opp's next game
                                                                    N => next match up
                                                                    so... p:TPA<15
                                                                    shows the grizzles yesterday!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • dmitean
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-30-11
                                                                      • 364

                                                                      #839
                                                                      Yeah, thanks, for one game, I know, even several games. But how do we write seasons average of three points attempted?
                                                                      Memphis are at season average of 14 three point attempts a game. How do I write it in SDQL?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • dmitean
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 03-30-11
                                                                        • 364

                                                                        #840
                                                                        Originally posted by JMon
                                                                        team=Pacers and tA(o: points)<=91.7
                                                                        Defense allows below or equal to 91.7 a game.
                                                                        Thanks. With your help I managed to do what I wanted. That didn't help me as far as betting goes, but I'm learning:
                                                                        tA(o: points)<=92 and otA(o: points)<=98 and site=home and rest=0

                                                                        This is something like what I wanted...

                                                                        This is a bit different, but with actual result, though too small of a data to draw real conclusion:

                                                                        tA(o: points)<=92 and site=home and rest=0 and p:L and p:site=away and 20121131<=date

                                                                        Still 6 - 0 SU and 5 - 1 ATS.
                                                                        Last edited by dmitean; 03-31-14, 08:47 AM.
                                                                        Comment
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