Leans for Monday 3/2/09

[shoebox]

I like to go against the yanks in April, theres lots of +EV to be made!!
Public pounds NYY, and BOS

[jgbgsox]

voloquez was dominant in 1st half struggled in 2nd half

[cocknocker]

Alright guys she's ready time to do those errands! See you guys later on!

[handimann]

The D-Backs have a good lineup, but they choked big time after the All Star break last year. They cannot contend with Eric Byrnes out of the lineup. He is their heart and soul.

i second this. i hope felipe lopez actually does something this year too. he could be a factor at the top of the lineup.

[wangichu]

Dex, the Mariners overspent last year and did not get good returns in value for what they put out. Beltre is a malcontent...But wht they have going for them is a good closer (Putz) and an outstanding Hall Of Fame lead off hitter (Ichiro). What concerned me about them when I researched their squad was a lack of true overall depth and a bullshit farm system. Which means that they are one injury away from going into the tank again this year. Washburn is a home run waiting to happen.

putz is with the mets now, which is a large part of the reason that i think the mariners are more likely fade material at least early in the season. I like the braves like dex said. Their rotation just took a huge leap forward and i wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they snuck off with the division. Brewers are early season fade material for me too. Coming off a playoff season, but losing their two best pitchers. Also, they're trying to get something extra out of hoffman, but he's not pitching in petco. Miller park is much more of a launching pad, and i'm sure that hitters will feast off his 86 mph fastball or his 82 mph change up that lacks the differential to fool hitters like he used to. Also as a die hard dodger fan, i hate to admit it, but you're right dex, the dback's do look good. I also expect the giants to take a step forward on the arms of lincecum, cain, and randy johnson, making that division a 3 horse race.

Sherzer is a huge key for sure as that kid has an amazing arm. He just needs to be able to settle into that starting role, but i think micah owings could be just as big. If he can step up and pitch like he did early last year, that rotation will be amazing.

[cheesehead004]

Volquez better than Lincecum? Whaaa?

Last year Tiny Tim pitched more innings, gave up less runs, had a much better ERA, a much better WHIP, way more Ks, he walks less batters, has a better lgERA, a superior ERA+, a WAYYY better VORP, etc.

Do not insult my Timmay, CK

[The_Kid]

Why is the Philly/New Orleans and Dallas/OKC game off the boards now?

[wangichu]

voloquez was dominant in 1st half struggled in 2nd half

young arm got tired over his first full major league season. That kind of stuff is VERY common for young pitchers in their first full season. He just needs to keep doing what he did early last year, which is keep the ball down and pound the strike zone. He has a live arm, i actually saw him live in the minors in my home town, kid has some nasty stuff.

[handimann]

it's tim lincecum. best pitcher at the moment. maybe i'm bias b/c i know the guy

i'm a dbacks fan living in the bay area and i try to watch lincecum pitch at at&t every time he's up. only time i don't root for him is when he's pitching against the snakes. he is just straight up nasty. how do you know him? around SF or back in washington?

[MindGames]

The Kid, they are still up on BETUS. Philly/New Orleans could be due to the inclement weather and possible airport delays.

[The_Kid]

the pistons will also be playing their first home game off of a long east coast trip. they have the boston hex working against them as well. the nuggets are coming off a su loss, and you have to think billups will be pumped to show up his old team and get back in the win column. revenge game as well for a denver team that lost at home to the pistons earlier in the year. i will go big on this game if ai is playing and possibly if i win my heat play tonight. the pistons are clearly much better off without the answer.

-nuggets (possibly big)

You might want to consider this play again, Dexter.

According to the Denver Post, Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony is unlikely to play in Tuesday's game at Detroit, because he is dealing with personal matters and might need to travel back to Denver, the team confirmed after Denver's Monday practice.

[Dexter]

micah owings swings a mean bat.

the giants other young arms can make this staff devesating in a few years.

i like sea with hernandez/bedard forming a tough 1-2 punch. they have a young stud as well in morrow.

[Dexter]

You might want to consider this play again, Dexter.

According to the Denver Post, Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony is unlikely to play in Tuesday's game at Detroit, because he is dealing with personal matters and might need to travel back to Denver, the team confirmed after Denver's Monday practice.

thx for the info

[The_Kid]

OKC Thunder Team Total UNDER 97

No Green and no Durant tonight and Westbrook can't do it all by himself. I'd be surprised if this team hits 90 tonight considering the circumstances.

[shoebox]

The wizzles might be a play also, getting lots of favored movement to take the home dog.

[Dexter]

Webb has been one of the most consistent pitchers for years.

BTW what the hell happed to Harang he used to win me money??

off year, but he finished strong to end the season. he basically got screwed up by dusty the idiot baker. he also has lost 25lbs...he'll be good again.

per rotoworld - Harang was more unlucky than bad early on, going 2-6 with a 3.50 ERA in his first 11 starts. After that came a surprise four-inning relief appearance in an 18-inning game on May 25. He was working on two days’ rest, and even though he threw 63 pitches, the Reds had him start on three days’ rest on May 29. He gave up at least five runs in five of his next eight starts and then went on the DL with a strained forearm right before the All-Star break. Back a month later, he was lit up in his first two starts before settling in and going 3-3 with a 2.83 ERA in his final eight starts. It doesn’t seem like a stretch to suggest that Harang’s season could have turned out much differently if not for that relief appearance. His velocity is intact, and he should have far better defensive support this year with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. gone and Alex Gonzalez back

[shoebox]

per rotoworld - Harang was more unlucky than bad early on, going 2-6 with a 3.50 ERA in his first 11 starts. After that came a surprise four-inning relief appearance in an 18-inning game on May 25. He was working on two days’ rest, and even though he threw 63 pitches, the Reds had him start on three days’ rest on May 29. He gave up at least five runs in five of his next eight starts and then went on the DL with a strained forearm right before the All-Star break. Back a month later, he was lit up in his first two starts before settling in and going 3-3 with a 2.83 ERA in his final eight starts. It doesn’t seem like a stretch to suggest that Harang’s season could have turned out much differently if not for that relief appearance. His velocity is intact, and he should have far better defensive support this year with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. gone and Alex Gonzalez back

He is one of those sleeper money making cash cows. I gave up on him last year cause he was killing me. Looks like im gonna hop on board again. He is money as a dog

[wangichu]

I think that for example Harden, Voloquez, and obviously Danny Haren show that they can cross over leagues with their stuff. It's just that good.

MOST if not all pitchers who go from the AL to the NL see an instant increase in their stats, largely because of the pitcher hitting, but also because of the bunting, stealing small ball for eeking out runs.

Moyer's success this year was largely because of the run production behind him. He still lobs up cookies and you can't expect a guy in his mid 40's to go anywhere but down, you won't see any of my money on him.

As for the D-backs, a lot of their success will come down to their young hitters. Upton, young, drew and reynolds accounted for about 600 strikeouts. That's way too many wasted plate appearances for 4 of the cogs that should be making their offensive engine run. They need to be a lot more productive than that. That's like a full season of plate appearances for one of those guys that the ball wasn't even put in play. All of those hitters have talent, but they MUST reduce the strikeouts because the book is out on all of them and the good pitchers now where to throw it to get them swinging and missing. This is the single biggest reason in my mind why the d-backs won't make the series. Fortunately cojack has almost a 1 to 1 BB to K ratio so he he's balance that lineup out a little bit. I don't think Flip Lopez is quite going to help this though either, but having Byrnes back will be huge.


and yeah lunt, as of now, if lincecum pitches like he did last year, he is better than santana. His pitches have more velocity and more life, and his control is right there on par with johan. Santana's strikeouts have gone down since his Cy Young years, which indicates that his arm isn't quite as strong as it once was, something that hitters will start catching up to, especially if his elbow problem doesn't go away asap. He was always more of a 94-95 mph with a devestating change, last year, he was sitting in more of a 91-93 zone, still highly effective, but not nearly as devestating as lincecum's 97+mph zinger and man what a hook that kid has.

I'm surprised noone has mentioned chad billingsley. He wasn't quite as consistent as lincecum, but his stuff is right up there, maybe a tick below. He needs to work around outings when he's not hitting his spots a little better, but at 3.14 ERA and 16 W's with 201 Ks despite starting the first half month in the pen and having a small adjustment period to starting. Kid can pitch with the best of them, and i guarantee he will be a fantasy steal.

[projock]

OKC Thunder Team Total UNDER 97

No Green and no Durant tonight and Westbrook can't do it all by himself. I'd be surprised if this team hits 90 tonight considering the circumstances.

I like this, does any else? Westbrook, Krstic, Sefolosha, Watson, wilcox, collison, mason.....seriously?etc under 98 Points? What is there not to like?

[wangichu]

back to NBA... posted my reasoning earlier, but...

2x plays:

MIA +4/ML
PHI -2

1x play:

SA/LAC under 184.5


laying off OKC with news that jeff green will be watching the game alongside kevin durant. They could still pull this one off, but that's too much talent missing for me to drop money on them. Besides, i don't mind shortening my play list with some gems on the board.

[jspectyper]

What do you guys think of this parlay
NO/Ph over 189, Ph -2, Atl -4, Cle/Mia under 186?
Or possibly a 4 point teaser? I don't see why it wouldn't work

[TheLemonDropKid]

Am I missing something or has our resident Hockey guru been run off by some rude mofos up in this thread???

I haven't noticed any picks from him here in a couple of days??

Or did I just miss it??

[Wilforth]

What do you guys think of this parlay
NO/Ph over 189, Ph -2, Atl -4, Cle/Mia under 186?
Or possibly a 4 point teaser? I don't see why it wouldn't work

When you make a parlay, you never see why it wouldn't work and that's exactly why you're ready to put something on it. The parlay actually looks good from an analytical point of view but if things slow down in Philadephia, that one can go Under. If CLE softpedals on D, that one could go Over. If Washington takes a serious lead into the 2H, an upset is possible there. I'll be rooting for you but I think if you modify the parlay to something like the following, it could also work:

NO/Philadelphia UNDER 89 1H (NO usually score more in the 2H)
Philadelphia -1 1H (NO are usually a 2H team, Philly play well in the 1H)
Miami +2 1H (Miami go into this one the fresher of the sides and should outplay CLE in the 1H)
Washington +2 1H (ATL on the road customarily trail in the 1H)

[jspectyper]

When you make a parlay, you never see why it wouldn't work and that's exactly why you're ready to put something on it. The parlay actually looks good from an analytical point of view but if things slow down in Philadephia, that one can go Under. If CLE softpedals on D, that one could go Over. If Washington takes a serious lead into the 2H, an upset is possible there. I'll be rooting for you but I think if you modify the parlay to something like the following, it could also work:

NO/Philadelphia UNDER 89 1H (NO usually score more in the 2H)
Philadelphia -1 1H (NO are usually a 2H team, Philly play well in the 1H)
Miami +2 1H (Miami go into this one the fresher of the sides and should outplay CLE in the 1H)
Washington +2 1H (ATL on the road customarily trail in the 1H)

Thanks for your input I'll look into it.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Only one play for me today and I'm playing it BIG.

76ers ML. They 7-0 straight up this season at home with one days rest off a home game. Along with the fact the Hornets are 3-12 as underdogs this season and they are 2-8 after 3 or more consecutive wins.

[suckatmyjob]

wow lots of people on Philly today that live game thread for philly might be fun tonight

[TheLemonDropKid]

Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore"........


LOL........just like my parents telling me to "pick up the phone" on VOICEMAIL.......


Hellooooooooo.....anybody know what happened to Hockeytown???

[suckatmyjob]

200 seems high for the Dallas / OKC game

[peterpan19]

but i think micah owings could be just as big. If he can step up and pitch like he did early last year, that rotation will be amazing.

too bad hes not playing for Arizona anymore, now with the Reds but I wish him the best, just dont hit a HR at BOB (Chase Field), thx

[repski]

Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore"........


LOL........just like my parents telling me to "pick up the phone" on VOICEMAIL.......


Hellooooooooo.....anybody know what happened to Hockeytown???

only 1 hockey game tonight...probably taking a break

[handimann]

too bad hes not playing for Arizona anymore, now with the Reds but I wish him the best, just dont hit a HR at BOB (Chase Field), thx

yeah he went to the reds in the adam dunn deal. i liked him a lot too. such a great bat and decent pitcher.

[handimann]

Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore", Take me off of "ignore"........


LOL........just like my parents telling me to "pick up the phone" on VOICEMAIL.......


Hellooooooooo.....anybody know what happened to Hockeytown???

only 1 nhl game tonight

if you look on Todays Action's thread, he's got COL -125 for tonight

[LUNT101]

im a mets fan...lincecum is the best pitcher in the game. his splitter/circle change is one of the filthiest pitches in baseball. my top 5 in the game right now.

1) lincecum
2) cc sabathia
3) roy halladay
4) johan santana
5) cole hamels

I'm a bigger Mets fan, and if the bullpen didn't blow 6 or more of Santana's leads and the Mets made the playoffs he would have won the Cy Young. Led the NL in ERA and IP. Taking nothing away from Lincecum but I'm not calling him the best pitcher in the MLB after 1 good season, sorry. Regarding his "elbow issues," the media is doing a great job of blowing up nothing. Johan was throwing bullpen sessions every other day for the first time in his career in order to test his surgically repaired knee, and in turn stressed out his elbow. His quote about how he will take as long as he needed got twisted and turned into "Johan won't start Opening Day." He will be ready April 6th.

[camel]

What's everyone's take on Dallas -5.5.

No Green, No Durant... Dallas to cover?

I just can't pull the trigger on Phi -2 and Miama +4.

[peterpan19]

early leans (writeups will follow on tuesday morning)
Over Pho / Orl (or depending on the line and nash maybe Pho)
NYJ
Chi
Lak 1st qtr / half (maybe)