Leans for Friday 2/27/09 featuring schaapattack Week

[peterpan19]

ok picks so far:
MIA, ATL comes home after a long road trip, MIA just is the play here, plus they are 6-1 ATS and they always play ATL well no matter where (ony thing I hate is that its friday night, but other than that nice play)

(Bos, well long road trip too, but they were embarassed, might play the 1st qtr too here, but waiting for a line)

NY, they played well against ORL and Phi just barely beat Washington the other night, plus add in its Friday night in New York, the Knicks wont let us down on this one, plus they have 4x revenge on their minds, interesting stat: last time NY won against Phi it was Friday night and the line was -3

and of course CLE and SAC, I think i dont have to say anything here

so thats it: MIA, NY, CLE, SAC and maybe GS depending on the line (if ck says the young kids are good too and the line is not too high, I mean he has season tickets, and you cant ignore that this is char 4th road game and GS owns them at home)

ck do you think something is the wrong call, cause you were right on spot with your analysis all week long and I always lost ...

[BCaldwell32]

And it looks like the are back in effect
first rule of is you dont talk about
second rule of is you dont talk about

His name is Robert Paulson

[RoagBettor]

The Warriors open at -1 tonight? Hmmm.....

[RoagBettor]

Wow now GS at +1

[mkchung]

hi all. i've been following ck's thread for the past month now and i finally decided to join sbr. can someone tell me where i can find the ? cheers!

[cocknocker]

Something has to be touched upon today in response to the barrage of PM's that I received about the character and objectivity of my man schaapattack. There has been descrepancy ove a call he made regarding Stanford and the number yesterday. Now earlier in the day he made a call on Stanford+4.5, but at that time is was just a lean. However when he made the play official, the number was +5 on every book that I have (Greek, Betus, Linesmaker), thus the play on Stanford made by anyone who took his lean when he made it official HAD toget the line at +5, because I put the game on a 7-way $10.00 parlay (Idon't like palays I treat them like lottery plays) and my number was 5, which of couse was a push. No person in their right mind would ask for a point reduction on a wager from 5 down to 4.5 when taking the dog. It just won't happen. I don't think that he is fudging the numbers a all. Matter of fact, if a person makes wagers while out and about, the numbers may be different thatn earlier in the day or even sometimes the nmber will change RIGHT BEFORE gametime. To a person who is tailing this can be a nightmare sometimes especially if the tailer doesn't have the luxury to buy points at their book. This is not an uncommon occurance. Alls that I am saying is that we have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Dexter]

no cocknokcer, you are wrong about this. his original lean post made no mention of any lines. his first post on the stanford game was at 9:48pm with a spread of +4.5. adabarber saw the same thing i did.

this is not the first time he has done this - i have sent him pm's about his poor accounting, but now he simply doesnt respond to me.

i have only been tracking his plays since i helped him out initially with various questions about line movement, key numbers etc....

[peterpan19]

ok guys lines are out and I am a little bit surprised:
GS +1.5 right now, but then: GS-C-Biedrins-Probable, G-Ellis-OUT, F-Maggette-Questionable, G-Crawford-OUT, F-Jackson-Probable
So I dont know if it has such a huge effect, but its Friday night and it is the 4th road game for Char

Mia +4 seems about right
NY went down to -2, good
Orl -9.5, dex I think I have to follow you with that one and give it a try
CLE -2, well no points here, but we all know how CLE answers after a loss
Bos -12, well too high for me not after a long road trip
Suns -3.5 is Nash coming back tonight or not ?
SAC -2, well dont know if I play it

[ASH0479]

....

Peter...

I am liking your Miami +4 pick...

Not sure anout Orl, Detroit usually plays them tough, but this isnt the same Detroit team alothough they have NO everything they could hanlde...

To many guys out for GSW for me to play....I like Cleveland but b2b scare me, but there is no way they shoot as bbad as they did last night...Duncan playin??

[Dexter]

yeah, that gs line is crazy off imo. i had a line of gs -4.5....i suppose some of the warriors big guns are getting the night off?

[cocknocker]

Wow, i have been blown away by the lines for the games I had initial leans on. The Warriors line is horrid and is quite frighening indeed. I assume that the injuries played a part in the opening line. So I will lay off of them as is necessary with this shady line.

I also don't like the Cavs as a road favorite against the Spurs as I used my search engine to go all the way back to 1994, and i could not find not one single game where they have been favored in San Antonio. So i am also laying off of that one for sure.

One game of particular interest to me is the Knicks playing against the Sixers laying 3. I am very intrigued about this play, especially given that the Knicks are a high energy team and Philly is 1-5 ats coming into this game which is ice cold, while the Knicks are 3-3 straight up and ats coming into this game. While that isn't exactly hot, it's definitely better than the Sixers. i am going to take the Knicks and the short home chalk today as the line is doing exactly what it is supposed to do with more bettors on their side going up from 2.5 to 3.

[NYCKEV]

I like Lakers -2.5 big today. I mean I know they played a late game last night and have to travel to Den, but Lakers were up enough to give all starters rest in the 4th and Kobe only played 27 mins. I honestly think that witout Billups at the point Den is scary. Lakers have one of the best 2nd squads in the league and I believe they can and will out play Denvers 2nd squad. I can't even remember when was the last time Den beat the Kobes.

Lakers -2.5

[peterpan19]

ck
yeah I also really like that NY game like i said earlier today, btw knicks down to -2 during the last 30 min

But I just cant lay off that Cavs game (and yes normally something around a 7 pt underdog), I think the line will go to a pk sooner or later just because everybody will be on the Spurs tonight after say saw them play last night and with Wallace out for weeks, well some people will play Spurs big

Also that Suns -3.5 made me think, come on -3.5 is Nash really out tonight, he has to be ??

[Dexter]

this cav line of -2 is assuming duncan is out. if hes announced in, the spurs move to a -2 pt fav.

[cocknocker]

So officially I like

Knicks-1.5

Kings -1.5

I will wait for the Kings line to drop knowing that the public will pound the Clippers and thereby reduce the spread a tad so that I won't have to put up any extra vigorish when I make my play. I am playing the Knicks at the 1.5 RIGHT NOW.

[BebeRebozo]

Chicago Bulls -5,5
Philadelphia 76ers +2,5
New Orleans Hornets -9
Portland Trail Blazers -6
Dallas Mavericks -10
Los Angeles Lakers -2,5

YEAH!

[peterpan19]

honestly the only game that I would book right now is Mia +4 and NY -2, all the other games, just too much going on,
ORL, CLE, PHO ??
so well I am down to 6 potential plays today, and yes that Lakers line just looks too good to be true

[handimann]

ok guys lines are out and I am a little bit surprised:
GS +1.5 right now, but then: GS-C-Biedrins-Probable, G-Ellis-OUT, F-Maggette-Questionable, G-Crawford-OUT, F-Jackson-Probable
So I dont know if it has such a huge effect, but its Friday night and it is the 4th road game for Char

Mia +4 seems about right
NY went down to -2, good
Orl -9.5, dex I think I have to follow you with that one and give it a try
CLE -2, well no points here, but we all know how CLE answers after a loss
Bos -12, well too high for me not after a long road trip
Suns -3.5 is Nash coming back tonight or not ?
SAC -2, well dont know if I play it

peterpan,

where did you find that GS injury report? i didn't know crawford was out. i've been looking at this game hard and that would be a deciding factor.

[peterpan19]

anyone know why the Mia line jumped to +5 ?

edit: ok Smith and Bibby are back, but you gotta love that Mia play even more now in my mind ....

[peterpan19]

handimann
here it is

Iverson wont start tonight, pretty sure thing

[cocknocker]

peterpan,

you would do good to lay off the Suns as it is going against a JM play, and it is the wrong call. The Suns are 4-4 ats coming into this game, and you already know that Shaq won't be in the lineup tonight, which means that Bosh will have his way with whatever Phoenix has left on the court. For their part, the Raptors are 4-2 ats over their last 6 games, which is good form.

I don't think that Phoenix cares so much for this game as it is out of conference and thus will not hurt them in their division. If Nash is coming back then he won't be sharp. My advice is to buy 1 point and play the Raptors as buying 2 points or three points will still put youin the same boat, with a 3.5 spread. Two points would mean that you would have a line of 5.5, which is the same basic principle as having a 4.5 line. Phoenix basically would have to win by 6 in order for you to get your bread. The three points would give you a line of 6.5, but who wants to put up that kind of juice on the Raptors? If Phoenix is going to be without the monster down in the paint, i seriously doubt that they win this game by 8 points with what they have left on the floor. After all, Toronto shoots the three about identical with the Suns at 6.5 for Phoenix made per game and 6.1 made per game for the Raptors. Traditionally teams like to get off to a good start on a road trip. Phoenix is playing a back end of a back to back where they are 2-3 straight upnd ats although they could very easily be 0-5 since their only two wins in 5 came against the Clips and the Wizards, hardly good teams. Throw in the fact that when playing a back end at home, the Suns are 0-2 straight up this year. I suggest to take the points and get over the 4 takingthe Raptors at +4.5.

[OperatorX]

dont hide hockeytown! come back need those winners tonight!

[handimann]

handimann
here it is

Iverson wont start tonight, pretty sure thing

thanks. funny that you found that in my local news site considering how much i read that site. maybe i will lay off the warriors then.

[SpreadSniper]

peterpan,

where did you find that GS injury report? i didn't know crawford was out. i've been looking at this game hard and that would be a deciding factor.

Found this on another guys thread... seems like solid info..

"Coach Don Nelson will clear things up for you starting Friday. Golden State (20-37 overall, 25-28-3 against the spread) is playing for next year. He is going to sit Crawford Friday and clear the bench.
“I'm going to give Jamal a day off against Charlotte so I can play some of the younger guys," Nelson said. “I'll do that periodically because I have a logjam at the '2,' and it's probably better not to try to play everybody.”

found here... covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=168514&t=0

[peterpan19]

ck
ok thx for your input, but I think shaq will play tonight for sure, bc he only played like 21 min last night so he will play, but I get your point here, might be the best to just put my usual system wager on it and maybe we are lcuky and nash comes back, the line will surely go over 4 in that case

anyway my best plays for tonight so far NY -2 and MIA +5 (might buy a point here, but dont think I will need it)
ORL looks good too, but just have to think about that one a bit longer

[BCaldwell32]

Another point to consider In Phoenix game is that Toronto is the best free throw shooting team in the league, which could prove to be the difference if the game stays close.

[BigMoneyMan]

For anyone that saw my rampage on HT last night I need to explain why I was so pissed and why I went off on him. Everyone goes through a bad spell now and then. Personally i don't go through really bad ones like others but that it not the point. Point is that when someone asks you how your feeling and if you are going to bounce back, which is encouraging you, don't jump down there throat and make a bunch of excuses like he did to me the other day. I should have said something then but I kept my mouth shut and let it get to me. I'm over it now and its done. I wish him the best of luck. As far as my pick go I went 4-0 yesterday and if I post from now on it will be in my own thread. This is out of no disrespect to CK because I consider him a friend, talk to him daily, and will continue to do so; but more for my superstitious ways. Hey whatever works. Lets get them today and GL as always.

[chipper13101]

Guys, call me crazy but I'm taking the McNuggets tonight plus the points over the Lakers. Why? For the same reason I took to the Clippers over the Celtics. Just call me the cynic. BOL to all.

[sourdia]

Hey ck ( or anyone..?!!) if you had:

CLE +2.5
TOR +4.5
SAC -1.5

would you jump on them @ -105 ?

In which order.Say if you had 100 units for today's bets available how would you bet on those games.

Thank's!!!

[hockeytown11]

Go back to the day I made EXCUSES and post them here for us all to read or just give me the day and the post number,thanks in advance

[hockeytown11]

Anyways plays for tonight,do what you want with them

Detroit/LA over 6
Montreal/Philly over 6

[cocknocker]

chipper13101,

That is the correct call for this game. The moneyline for the McNuggets would be a very favorable option as well. I was wondering when someone would come with the correct call on this game. The line itsself speaks volumes about what the linemakers think about this game. I was about to respond to peterpan about htis game, but you summed it all up. The McNuggets haven't had a 5 game ats loss streak yet thisyear, and they are about due for a cover. if not then they might as well start a bench clearing brawl inorder to get going in the right direction. If they fail in this game, it would be a great idea to chase with them in their next game at Indiana.

[RoagBettor]

Well I will follow up my 6-team parlay win last night with the following straight wagers:

Lakers -2
Cavs -1.5
Clips +2
Boston/Indy under 205.5

[cocknocker]

peterpan,

The Hawks are the correct call in their game with the Heaters. Traditionally teams that have had a horrid road trip do well when they get home in thier first game and teams that have had a swell road trip do terribly when they get home in their first game. I don't know why that is, but it is what it is. The Hawks are terrible on the road and great at home. Miami already blew them off 95-79 in their last matchup, with Atlanta winning the contest prior to that one. The Hawks will return the favor in this game, with Josh Smith rejuvenated after his one game suspension. He always plays well at home!

[nonsense48]

mlb for today:
tam-120/100
cle-140/100
fla-125/100
atl-105/100
phil-105/100
stl-100/115
tx-115/100
cws-100/110
co-100/115
good luck everyone