Testing a model

[aznbluff]

I finally have a solid grasp of the NHL and can understand all the line movement before and after it happens. Trying to expand my markets into the NBA but I expect it will take me 2-3 years to really learn the game.

Working on a model and just want to run a trial year on it so I'll post the numbers here and track it for however long it keeps me interested. I'm gonna be betting it small (1/10th my normal unit) just to maintain my focus because it will definitely be beneficial to expand to NBA and then eventually MLB as well (maybe in 5-10 years time). I'm expecting breakeven or slightly negative by the end of the year. I'm also extremely lazy and will likely not put in the 10 min/day to post but hopefully I will.

Comparing to offered lines

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Indiana
Boston	7.99	7.50	187.13	186.00
	Difference	0.49		1.13
Washington
Toronto	-1.92	-4.50	193.71	194.50
	Difference	2.58		-0.79
Phoenix
Charlotte	3.35	-2.50	189.03	191.00
	Difference	5.85		-1.97
Milwaukee
Philadelphia	-1.47	-3.00	197.57	200.00
	Difference	1.53		-2.43
Atlanta
Detroit	2.61	-3.50	199.59	197.50
	Difference	6.11		2.09
San Antonio
Memphis	6.06	1.00	188.19	183.50
	Difference	5.06		4.69
Booklyn
Minnesota	-4.48	-9.00	200.30	202.00
	Difference	4.52		-1.70
Utah
Dallas	-8.10	-11.00	200.48	201.50
	Difference	2.90		-1.02
Cleveland
New Orleans	-4.27	-6.50	193.35	196.50
	Difference	2.23		-3.15
Chicago
Portland	-0.72	-3.50	191.57	190.50
	Difference	2.78		1.07
Golden State
LA Lakers	6.38	6.00	199.74	206.50
	Difference	0.38		-6.76

Looking for an arbitrary 3 point difference in the spread and 2.5 difference in the total

Phoenix +2.5 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
Atlanta +3.5 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
San Antonio -1 -104 0.104 to win 0.1
Brooklyn +9 -107 0.107 to win 0.1

San Antonio/Memphis Over 183.5 -104 0.104 to win 0.1
Cleveland/New Orleans Under 196.5 -104 0.104 to win 0.1
LAL/Golden State Under 206.5 -108 0.108 to win 0.1

I should probably Kelly the bets to some degree but I don't know the benchmarks in spread and total difference yet.

Some thoughts: Spits out mostly underdogs and extreme totals. I'm ok with that but we'll see how it goes.

7 plays is a lot. I would never have 7 bets in a day in the NHL. Hopefully that's just an anomaly for today and not a trend. I don't think any winning model can have 7 plays/day, just my opinion.

Model also underrates Memphis as a team (odd because I really like them personally), hopefully this corrects itself

[moshi]

Interesting. I, too, have a model that is still in beta-mode though it is different from yours. It also picked out 3/4 of the games yours did although I was on a different side for some of them. I won on Phoenix and Minnesota but lost on Detroit. It also picked the Warriors to cover tonight pretty strongly. We'll see what happens.

[SteelRain]

Wow excellent job. 5-1 and the lakers/warriors game is on pace to go under so you are looking at 6-1.

How are you generating those numbers btw?

[aznbluff]

Running at 5-2 for +0.289 units. After maybe a positive 50-75 game sample I'll try to establish some kind of Kelly guidelines.

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Orlando
Miami	-12.54	-13.50	201.64	203.50
	Difference	0.96		-1.86
Sacramento
LA Clip	-6.03	-10.50	203.77	207.50
	Difference	4.47		-3.73
Philadelphia
Indiana	-15.67	-14.00	194.30	193.00
	Difference	-1.67		1.30
NY Knicks
Washington	-0.95	-2.50	193.81	191.50
	Difference	1.55		2.31
Boston
Atlanta	-9.82	-8.50	195.96	194.00
	Difference	-1.32		1.96
Minnesota
Houston	-1.55	-6.00	207.82	215.50
	Difference	4.45		-7.68
Charlotte
Milwaukee	4.53	-2.00	185.53	182.00
	Difference	6.53		3.53
Cleveland
San Antonio	-17.68	-11.50	188.47	192.00
	Difference	-6.18		-3.53
Dallas
Denver	3.06	-5.00	208.90	215.00
	Difference	8.06		-6.10

Sacramento +10.5 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
Minnesota +6 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
Charlotte +2 -104 0.105 to win 0.1
San Antonio -11.5 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
Dallas +5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1

Minnesota/Houston Under 215.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Charlotte/Milwaukee Over 182 -102 0.102 to win 0.1
Cleveland/San Antonio Under 192 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Dallas/Denver Under 215 -105 0.105 to win 0.1


9 game card on Saturday. Hate it, and I especially hate having both the side and total of the same game. This happens 4 times tomorrow, so I'm going to assume that I need to adjust something in these games but I don't know what. I'll have to watch what happens in these games and try to understand what is happening.

Perhaps the closing lines will be closer to my generated numbers and that's all the problem is, one can hope

[aznbluff]

I like where the lines are closing at. Nailed pretty much every play on the board line movement wise with my numbers except Charlotte side and Spurs/Cavs total.

[aznbluff]

6-3 for +0.292
Totaling 11-5 +0.581

Tomorrow's card

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Detroit
Brooklyn	3.81	-2.00	195.42	192.00
	Difference	5.81		3.42
Chicago
LA Clip	2.52	-6.00	197.71	194.50
	Difference	8.52		3.21
Phoenix
Orlando	5.28	-1.50	197.36	198.50
	Difference	6.78		-1.14
Utah
OKC	-17.23	-14.00	196.83	197.50
	Difference	-3.23		-0.67
Sacramento
LA Lakers	-1.45	-4.00	199.53	201.50
	Difference	2.55		-1.97

Raising my totals filter to 3.5 points. Sides remain 3

Chicago +6 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
OKC -14 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Waiting on lines for Detroit/Brooklyn and Phx/Orlando. I'm guessing the Brooklyn line might have a play based on public perception of that team at the moment. Chicago line obviously has value due to Rose's injury and public perception of that vs reality I'm guessing. Might begin Kellying at 20-30 bets, especially if Chicago covers tomorrow (8.52 point difference). We'll see

Add
Detroit +2 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Phoenix +1.5 -102 0.102 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

3-1 for +0.195
Total 14-6 for +0.776 units

Tomorrow's card

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Boston
Charlotte	-3.62	-4.00	186.06	185.50
	Difference	0.38		0.56
Minnesota
Indiana	-6.09	-7.00	194.25	194.00
	Difference	0.91		0.25
Milwaukee
Detroit	-7.57	-7.50	192.07	190.50
	Difference	-0.07		1.57
Phoenix
Miami	-7.92	0.00	200.07	0.00
	Difference	-7.92		200.07
Houston
Memphis	8.66	1.50	198.88	195.00
	Difference	7.16		3.88
Denver
Dallas	-4.33	-5.50	210.29	212.00
	Difference	1.17		-1.71
New Orleans
San Antonio	-10.21	-10.00	195.82	199.50
	Difference	-0.21		-3.68
Chicago
Utah	12.31	0.00	187.97	0.00
	Difference	12.31		187.97
NY Knicks
Portland	-12.64	-8.00	195.68	194.50
	Difference	-4.64		1.18

Still waiting on Chicago/Utah and Phoenix/Miami line

Houston -1.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Portland -8 +102 0.1 to win 0.102

Houston/Memphis Over 195 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
New Orleans/San Antonio Under 199.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

[ShogunRua]

always figured you to be a pretty sharp bettor even though I don't really recall you posting plays regularly. This should be interesting. good luck with your model, you are off to a great start!

[Celtics08]

Add Phoenix +12 and Chicago -4,5?

[aznbluff]

Ya I've been busy all day.

Add
Phoenix +12 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
Chicago -4.5 -102 0.102 to win 0.1

My model doesn't account for Rose injury or any star injury and it's already missed on a Chicago game after the injury so if it keeps putting up bad lines in these games then I'm gonna have to lay off these games til at least 5-10 games pass. Same thing with Harden/Gasol injuries. Missed on a Houston game already as well.

I would manually adjust but I dont know how much these players are worth. Maybe after watching for 2-3 years I'll have a better idea. For example, historically, Allen Iverson is worth 0 points on the point spread so no adjustment would be needed and the line would shift due to public perception, though in reality he is worth 0 points. I don't know how much Harden/Rose/Gasol is worth. I assume Gasol is worth at least a few points. Harden seems to be worth nothing. Rose I don't know

[BCC585]

GL bud, I'm interested on how tonight will go with the injuries

[aznbluff]

2-4 for -0.211
Total 16-10 for +0.565

Tomorrow's card

Brooklyn
Toronto	-9.77	0.00	192.37	0.00
	Difference	-9.77		192.37
LA Lakers
Washington	0.89	0.00	198.69	0.00
	Difference	0.89		198.69
Orlando
Atlanta	-4.02	-8.00	199.02	199.00
	Difference	3.98		0.02
Golden State
New Orleans	6.42	3.00	199.08	204.00
	Difference	3.42		-4.92

Golden State -3 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Orland +8 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Golden State/New Orleans Under 204 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Again, key injury here so that's probably causing the line differential. Key injury games do not treat this model well. Running at 2-5 in these cases. I'll give it another 5-10 games sample size before I filter these kind of plays out. 2 more upcoming tomorrow.

Add Lakers +4.5 -102 0.102 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

2-2 for -0.007
Total 18-12 for +0.558

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Indiana
Charlotte	10.38	7.50	182.30	180.50
	Difference	2.88		1.80
Philadelphia
Orlando	-6.80	-4.50	203.19	207.50
	Difference	-2.30		-4.31
Memphis
Boston	-1.09	3.00	188.57	183.00
	Difference	-4.09		5.57
LA Lakers
Brooklyn	1.34	-2.50	200.18	200.00
	Difference	3.84		0.18
Miami
Cleveland	14.60	9.00	197.07	197.50
	Difference	5.60		-0.43
Chicago
Detroit	-3.15	-4.00	190.42	185.50
	Difference	0.85		4.92
Atlanta
Houston	-9.83	-10.00	203.90	199.50
	Difference	0.17		4.40
Washington
Milwaukee	4.76	2.50	193.19	191.00
	Difference	2.26		2.19
Denver
Minnesota	-5.27	-6.00	205.58	211.50
	Difference	0.73		-5.92
San Antonio
OKC	4.20	-2.50	196.37	200.00
	Difference	6.70		-3.63
Golden State
Dallas	-1.25	-4.00	203.56	208.00
	Difference	2.75		-4.44
Portland
Phoenix	1.11	0.00	198.23	0.00
	Difference	1.11		198.23
NY Knicks
LA Clip	-14.15	-10.00	201.02	204.50
	Difference	-4.15		-3.48

Boston +3 +102 0.1 to win 0.102
LA Lakers +2.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Miami -9 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
San Antonio +2.5 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
LA Clip -10 -102 0.102 to win 0.1

Philadelphia/Orlando Under 207.5 -102 0.102 to win 0.1
Memphis/Boston Over 183 +100 0.1 to win 0.1
Chicago/Detroit Over 185.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Denver/Minnesota Under 211.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Golden State/Dallas Under 208 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Questioning this. Any time you have this many plays, you are messing up somewhere so I dunno. Still hitting 60% so I'll ride it out til it stops working I guess. I did make an adjustment so I do want to track results of it. At least lots of plays provides a sample size faster.

[dymd3z]

Nice work azn~!

[aznbluff]

Nice work azn~!

That's debatable.

[moshi]

2-2 for -0.007
Total 18-12 for +0.558

I think you mean 1-3 because the Lakers didn't cover 4.5

[nammertl]

I think you mean 1-3 because the Lakers didn't cover 4.5

GS game went under and Orlando covered. That is 2 wins yes?

[moshi]

GS game went under and Orlando covered. That is 2 wins yes?

True. Don't know what I'm smoking.

[thebloombox08]

Nice systems

[NavsPicks]

That's debatable.

Typical Asian. Aiming for that 100%

[Celtics08]

Why you not play the Over in Atl/Hou?

[aznbluff]

Why you not play the Over in Atl/Hou?

Released line is actually 207.5

[aznbluff]

6-4 for +0.182
Total 24-16 for +0.74

Break in schedule. Guess Americans are eating turkey or something. I'm also busy next two days so it works out well.

[JAnthony]

6-4 for +0.182
Total 24-16 for +0.74

Break in schedule. Guess Americans are eating turkey or something. I'm also busy next two days so it works out well.

Nice work you are doing there, man. Seems there a lot of similarities in model you are using with one my own, since projections are really close.

[aznbluff]

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Milwaukee
Charlotte	-10.13	-5.00	184.08	181.50
	Difference	-5.13		2.58
San Antonio
Orlando	9.05	8.50	195.35	196.00
	Difference	0.55		-0.65
Miami
Toronto	5.03	5.50	196.17	196.50
	Difference	-0.47		-0.33
Dallas
Atlanta	0.09	-1.00	204.52	203.50
	Difference	1.09		1.02
Cleveland
Boston	-6.23	-3.50	190.10	187.50
	Difference	-2.73		2.60
LA Lakers
Detroit	-3.06	-5.00	199.62	202.00
	Difference	1.94		-2.38
Golden State
OKC	-5.12	-7.00	198.66	203.50
	Difference	1.88		-4.84
Washington
Indiana	-16.00	-10.00	189.34	186.50
	Difference	-6.00		2.84
NY Knicks
Denver	-11.40	-9.00	199.06	202.00
	Difference	-2.40		-2.94

Charlotte -5 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
Indiana -10 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Golden State/OKC Under 203.5 -107 0.107 to win 0.1

Just 3 plays qualify tomorrow, today was a nice little break

[EasyPicks]

pretty solid start so far!

[aznbluff]

Brooklyn
Houston	-17.53	-9.50	201.75	204.50
	Difference	-8.03		-2.75
New Orleans
Philadelphia	3.40	4.00	203.78	209.00
	Difference	-0.60		-5.22
Phoenix
Utah	11.53	2.00	192.42	191.00
	Difference	9.53		1.42
LA Clip
Sacramento	6.38	4.00	202.02	205.00
	Difference	2.38		-2.98

Adding

Houston -9.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Phoenix -2 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

New Orleans/Philadelphia Under 209 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

[aznbluff]

4-2 for +0.183
Total 28-18 for +0.923

	Generated	Offered	Generated Total	Offered
Atlanta
Washington	-1.61	0.00	195.92	0.00
	Difference	-1.61		195.92
Chicago
Cleveland	8.24	4.00	186.22	180.50
	Difference	4.24		5.72
Brooklyn
Memphis	-9.46	0.00	191.79	0.00
	Difference	-9.46		191.79
Minnesota
Dallas	-1.50	-1.00	206.81	208.00
	Difference	-0.50		-1.19
Houston
San Antonio	-6.97	0.00	200.01	0.00
	Difference	-6.97		200.01
Utah
Phoenix	-18.83	0.00	193.59	0.00
	Difference	-18.83		193.59
Boston
Milwaukee	4.75	1.50	188.24	187.50
	Difference	3.25		0.74

Tomorrow's card

Boston -1.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
Chicago -4 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

Chicago/Cleveland Over 180.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

Waiting on some lines still. Another side and total in a Chicago game. Obviously Rose's injury is crushing my model, not hitting well at all in Chicago games, but my model always spits them out. I have learned that Rose is a fairly important player.

[JAnthony]

Somewhat the same results came out of my model as well. Speaking of Bulls, Rose is not your guy, J.Butler is. He is the one responsible for those flaws in our models. Rose playing or not is neutral, if not negative (if he plays), factor.

[aznbluff]

Who is J.Butler, I honestly don't know

OK, looked him up, Rose's backup? He has some pretty phenomenal advanced stats. Better than Rose's apparently. Why do you think he messes up our models

[JAnthony]

I really like the over, though. Since Bulls are at least trying to shoot the ball for past couple of games, rather than just grinding the paint, and their D has loosen up, which is not good for Bulls, but definitely plays in favour of over here.

[JAnthony]

Who is J.Butler, I honestly don't know

OK, looked him up, Rose's backup? He has some pretty phenomenal advanced stats. Better than Rose's apparently. Why do you think he messes up our models

No, Butler is a starting SG (occasionally, SF). He is the major offensive strength for Bulls. He is one of the Bulls key players and has been out for past couple of games, he played a major role generating those data on which models base their outcomes, namely, favouring Bulls.

[aznbluff]

that might be why my model overrates the bulls then，thanks

so you believe that rose is worth around 0 points？

[JAnthony]

that might be why my model overrates the bulls then，thanks

so you believe that rose is worth around 0 points？

Yes, that's the case.

I wouldn't call those "points", but "overall contribution", meaning, that Rose's absence doesn't affect Bulls overall performance and ability to win matches that much, if at all, this season.

[aznbluff]

Just looking at numbers, he obviously contributes negatively towards winning this season but my model has consistently been off on Chicago games this year, so it made me re-consider. I didnt even know about this other dude who has these great underlying numbers until today and wasn't aware the Bulls were missing a key player.

Shows how clueless I am about NBA. I feel like this was a productive little chat for me though.