Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-14-13, 12:23 AM

For those that remember, it was brought up from Stifler that if a team has a lead in each of the first 3 qrtrs of a game (each quarter in of itself), that they will score less than their opponent in the fourth. That system is 14-6-1 including tonights with the exception of Nets/Kings which has that system going (Kings led all 3 qrtrs). Currently with 3 minutes to go, Nets are leading the 4th qrtr which would bring it up to 15-6-1. If you add any games that had ties in the 2nd or 3rd qrtr, that's another 5 wins to 1 loss for a grand total of 19-7-1.
Nets came up short and it was a push..14-6-2 (19-7-2). Interestingly, both pushes were tonight.

**Grinder12000** · 11-14-13, 08:41 AM

11/14/13 14W-10L +13.55u

Results
6B S3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.1
11B S3 LA Clippers 2.31 to win 2.1
14A S1 Portland 1.1 to win 1.0u
15A S4 Toronto fade Memphis 1.1 to win 1.0u
16A S4 Houston fade Philly 1.1 to win 1.0u
17A S4 Okla fade LA Clippers 1.1 to win 1.ou

Today's Games!
18A S4 Houston fade NYKnicks 1.1 to win 1.00u

Note - The RPI for these two teams are very close, should be a good game. Like this game.

Tomorrows known games

14B S1 Portland
15B S4 Tor fade Chi
19A S1 Brook fade Phx
21A S3 LALakers
22A S4 Philly fade Atl

**takethepnts** · 11-14-13, 03:02 PM

Doing great so far ... thanks for the posting Grinder , have a great night !

**matt#1** · 11-15-13, 06:21 AM

Very interesting system. Awesome start so far

**Grinder12000** · 11-15-13, 08:32 AM

11/15/13 14W-11L +12.45u

Results
18A S4 Houston fade NYKnicks 1.1 to win 1.00u Close, but no cigar!

Today
14B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10u
15B S4 Tor fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10u
19A S1 Brook fade Phx 1.10 to win 1.00
21A S3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00
22A S4 Philly fade Atl 1.10 to win 1.00

Note RPI numbers

Portland .581 4th in league Boston .408 28th in league
LALakers .521 11th in League Memphis .493 15th in league

Lakers have played a very hard schedule so far this year. Their opponents winning % is .597 and their opponents opponents winning % is .504.

Tomorrows known Games

18B S1 Houston fade Denver 2.31 to win 2.10u
19B S1 Brooklyn fade LA Clippers 2.31 to win 2.10u
22A S4 Brooklyn fade LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00u
20A S1 N.O. fade Philly 1.10 to win 1.00u

--------

NOTE - if there is a close game ATS and the line used is in question I will ask you guys what you got and try to make a fair decision.

**Grinder12000** · 11-15-13, 03:31 PM

New system WAS too good to be true! Carry on - all is well

**Grinder12000** · 11-15-13, 04:46 PM

Wish I had THAT 4 hours back!

**Grinder12000** · 11-16-13, 08:49 AM

11/16/13 18W-13L +17.55u

Results
14B S1 Portland 2.31 to win 2.10u
15B S4 Tor fade Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10u
19A S1 Brook fade Phx 1.10 to win 1.00
21A S3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 *** changed from loss to a win at +3.5
22A S4 Philly fade Atl 1.10 to win 1.00

Today
18B S4 Houston fade Denver 2.31 to win 2.10u
19B S1 Brook fade LA Clippers 2.31 to win 2.10u
20A S1 N.O. Fade Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00u
22A s4 Brook fade LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00u

A Clippers victory would solve a lot of upcoming stress

Tomorrows known Games

21B S3 LA Lakers 2.31 to win 2.10u ??? depends if 21A was a win/push/loss

And I'm working on a totals system

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-16-13, 02:22 PM

I put an alarm on my phone to check the Web for plays and make them. I can give points too!

**Grinder12000** · 11-16-13, 04:41 PM

BuckeyeKaptn - that is so sad LOL I'm -6 GMT! what are you.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-16-13, 10:02 PM

Eastern time United States...-5? GMT...it's 10 pm this post. The alarm was to remind me to check it while I'm at work

**Afterimage** · 11-16-13, 10:29 PM

I won the Lakers bet at +3.5. Did you not get that number?

**Grinder12000** · 11-16-13, 10:49 PM

Actually I did have +3.5 but I was thinking most had +3.

what did other have on the Lakers. ?????

My database has it at +3.5 should I go with that?? Opinions?

**miczz14** · 11-17-13, 08:19 AM

the closing line is still +3 so lal is still a play?

**Grinder12000** · 11-17-13, 09:49 AM

NO = Lakers are NOT a play

Reason is if you pushed then there are only 3 games left in the home stand.

Does that make sense??? Gotta have 4 games.

**Grinder12000** · 11-17-13, 10:58 AM

11/17/13 18W-17L +10.73u

Results
18B S4 Houston fade Denver 2.31 to win 2.10u
19B S1 Brook fade LA Clippers 2.31 to win 2.10u
20A S1 N.O. Fade Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00u
22A s4 Brook fade LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00u

Whole lotta red up there!

NO GAMES today. Some of you had LALakers at +3 and some at +3.5. My database downloaded to +3.5 and that is what I had so I'm counting the game as a win. IF you had +3 the series is canceled as it needs a 4 game home series to complete.

Tomorrows known games
19C S3 Brooklyn fade Portland 4.30 to win 3.91u ** TOTAL 6.11 to win 5.55u on this game
22B S4 Brooklyn fade Portland 1.81 to win 1.64u
28A S4 Portland fade Brooklyn 0.00 to win 0.00
26A S1 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00u
27A S3 Oklahoma 1.10 to win 1.00u

**Grinder12000** · 11-18-13, 08:32 AM

11/18/13 18W-17L +10.73u

Today's games
19C S1 Brooklyn fade Portland 4.30 to win 3.91u ** TOTAL 6.11 to win 5.55u on this game
22B S4 Brooklyn fade Portland 1.81 to win 1.64u
28A S4 Portland fade Brooklyn 0.00 to win 0.00
26A S1 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00u
27A S3 Oklahoma 1.10 to win 1.00u

Brooklyn is ranked 29th in RPI while Portland is 6th

I took 1.1 unit away from 26A and put it against 19c and 22B so we are not paying extra juice.

Tomorrows Known games

18C S4 Houston fade Boston 4.85 to win 4.41u
23A S4 Phoenix fade Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00u
24A S4 Washington fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00

**KC Needs Hockey** · 11-18-13, 12:03 PM

I'm jumping in to the system here's to a + season

. Think I am just going to start with the A bets tonight and not worry about the Brooklyn fade.

**Grinder12000** · 11-18-13, 03:56 PM

Seems like a good strategy KC. 28A for you would be 1.10u to win 1.00u Just remember that going forward. Any questions just PM me.

Kind of quiet around here!

And for entertainment - if any of you are into Symphonic Goth Metal with a female vocalist that will blow your mind. This is on of my bucket list concerts and my hard rock obsession. I discovered these guys a few years ago from Pandora - never even knew there was this genre' How I'm addicted. Turn up the sound and close the doors!! it's my thread right? LOL

**imotiv8** · 11-18-13, 04:35 PM

isnt the C bet tonight S1

**Grinder12000** · 11-18-13, 05:25 PM

Correct S1

**Grinder12000** · 11-18-13, 11:45 PM

11/19/13 20W-20L +14.08u

Sorry KC Needs Hockey :-) rough start for you.

Results

19C S1 Brooklyn fade Portland 4.30 to win 3.91u
22B S4 Brooklyn fade Portland 1.81 to win 1.64u
28A S4 Portland fade Brooklyn 0.00 to win 0.00
26A S1 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00u ** I had Utah as a push but I bet most had +8.5?? Will continue as a B bet
27A S3 Oklahoma 1.10 to win 1.00u

Today (Tomorrow - Tuesday) - check back this is Monday night - getting things done early

18C S4 Houston fade Boston 4.85 to win 4.41u
23A S4 Phoenix fade Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00u
24A S4 Washington fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00

I'm hoping Houston is looking past Boston at Dallas the next night

Wednesday Games
26B S1 Utah 0.00 to win 0.00 sigh
20B S1 N.O. fade Utah 0.00 to win 0.00 sigh what are the freaking chances
23B ?????
18D ?????
24B ?????
25A S4 Cleve fade Wash 1.10 to win 1.00u
30B S4 Port fade Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10u
29A S4 Tor fade Pilly 1.10 to win 1.00u

i'll format the above better when I get to a REAL computer.

i notice I have two "26" series I'm making Port fade into a "30"

**Afterimage** · 11-19-13, 10:04 AM

Thank you Portland! Thank you Grinder!

**KC Needs Hockey** · 11-19-13, 04:08 PM

"Sorry KC Needs Hockey :-) rough start for you."

It happens you will find out I am not one of those guys who will be jumping off a building after a couple of A losses now if all three of these bets lose on D might take a dive lol.

**Grinder12000** · 11-19-13, 06:55 PM

Careful with those S1 bets. Those are the ones underperforming so far.

**miczz14** · 11-20-13, 05:48 AM

D bet and S1 Uta.. hope both will end the series tomorrow.. *fingers crossed*

@grinder
can you post the score of A, B, C, D bets score of each system? Much appreciated

**Grinder12000** · 11-20-13, 08:25 AM

11/20/13 22W-21L +9.57u

Results

18C S4 Houston fade Boston 4.85 to win 4.41u
23A S4 Phoenix fade Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00u
24A S4 Washington fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00

Today
18D S4 Houston fade Dallas 10.19 to win 9.26
20B S1 N.O. fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.1
26B S1 Utah 2.31 to win 2.1
25A S4 Cleve fade Wash 0.00 to win 0.00
29A S4 Tor fade Philly 1.10 to win 1.00u
30B S4 Port fade Milwaukee 1.21 to win 1.10u
31A S1 Portland 0.00 to win 0.00u

24B S4 Washington fade Cleveland 1.21 to win 1.10u

Tomorrows known games

27B S3 Oklahoma 2.31 to win 2.10u
-------------------------
I made a comment yesterday about being careful with S1 plays. Being a dude of stats and averages I'm not real pleases with the winning % of the systems so far this year. The CURRENT win rate is not conducive to winning $$. But it IS early in the season so so far it's all good.

S4
A 9-7
B 3-3
C 0-3
D 2-0

S1
A 2-7
B 3-2
C 2-1
D 0-0

S3
A 3-2
B 2-0
C 0-0
D 0-0

With tonight's S4 "D "game the system in the last 7 years is 17-5 in "D" games.

S1 "A" games have been atrocious at 2-7, I do not have stats from back-testing the individual games, only the series as a whole. I do know that in the last 10 years the teams selected were outstanding in S1 plays but of course with any system where you pick the best it does not always mean they will continue to be the best so it's a 10 year rolling average. Will it work? That is what I would like to know also - no guarantees!

Buyer beware.

**mcrisp** · 11-20-13, 08:47 AM

Sir Grinder, what line did you get for MIN@WAS 11-19-13? i think was won in the odds

**KC Needs Hockey** · 11-20-13, 10:33 AM

Unless I am losing it I am pretty sure that Minnesota lost yesterday and were favorites by -3 or at least thats what I had them at. Did a bet the game wrong? Thanks for the time!

**Afterimage** · 11-20-13, 10:48 AM

We could just forget Utah and put everything on Indiana. Pacers will destroy NY. Good luck to all tonight!

**Grinder12000** · 11-20-13, 11:39 AM

Correct - my bad - Not sure I was thinking of Washington - I'll change things a bit.

NOTE CHANGES

25A S4 Cleve fade Wash 0.00 to win 0.00
24B S4 Washington fade Cleveland 1.21 to win 1.10u

Sorry guys!! I guess I need to play both sides tonight - IF you already have a wager in on Wash just do the 2.31 to win 2.1 as normal - lose a little juice. Your bookie will thank you.

Man my spread sheet is messy today LOL

**KC Needs Hockey** · 11-20-13, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Correct - my bad - Not sure I was thinking of Washington - I'll change things a bit.

NOTE CHANGES

25A S4 Cleve fade Wash 0.00 to win 0.00
24B S4 Washington fade Cleveland 1.21 to win 1.10u

Sorry guys!! I guess I need to play both sides tonight - IF you already have a wager in on Wash just do the 2.31 to win 2.1 as normal - lose a little juice. Your bookie will thank you.

Man my spread sheet is messy today LOL

Thanks for the update, I figured it was me there are so many times in the mourning when I look at things and say man thats wrong. Then look at them in the afternoon and think to myself what the hell was i thinking.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-20-13, 10:10 PM

I accidently put 15 units on milwaukee. I had to do it through my phone cause a damn squirrel killed the transformer on the electric pole outside while I was home on lunch ......which meant no wifi.

I need a 3 pointer!!! 29 seconds left.

Even after that loss of 16.5 units, I'm still up on the day.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-20-13, 10:53 PM

Grinder, would you be able, just once, put all the plays that have happened, from number #1 to now, along with the system plays? I have seemed to got lost on who is who and just wanna confirm my sheet with yours. Or by PM, if you don't wanna clog the thread.

**Grinder12000** · 11-20-13, 11:29 PM

Ever notice when you penetrate up you always lose? I feel your pain.

would a snap shot of my spread sheet help? Ill get on that tomorrow. Not looking good for Dallas.