Leans for Tuesday 1/6/09 "Over Day"

[africanroller]

Locked in

New Jersey Devils -105
Tulsa CFB -3
Houston NBA -2.5

If all is going well I will lock in the Blackhawks at 8 and the Anaheim Ducks at 10

[jjusttiff]

ok i have gone the memphis-3.5 under 194.5

[kitsters2k]

Locked in

Bos -9
Hou -2.5
Chi -9


See how my luck is, i've been on a horrible streak pass two weeks. Hope this is my turnaround.

[img]

regarding for houston. a local radio station pointed out that mcgrady will play today and artest is out. truthfully i wish it was the other way around with artest playing and mcgrady out. i am sticking to ck guns and reasoning and playing houston, however that blowout last year in philly is kind of disturbing haha.

[cocknocker]

Thank you, img

Now we know why the line dropped... Now danrman, you just won the sweepstakes for me to play my over on.

I am taking the Chicago/Sacramento over 211 (danrman's pick) I will update my opening statements to reflect that. With 65% of the bettors on the under, the line went up from 209 to 211.5. This is the one>


Final plays

Houston-2 (bought a point when the line was 3) Heavy
New York-1.5 small
Sacramento/Chicago over 211 medium

I will also be playing the Hornets tonight but i am waiting it out!

[THE_ROOKIE]

ok lets get this ship going no offence but this guy asked for over plays well here i will help u CK
NBA
boston v charlotte play= over 178.5
memphis v minnesota play= over 194.5
chicago v sacramento play = over 209.5
nhl
buffalo v ottawa play = over 5.5
toronto v florida play = over 5.5
sanjose v calgary play = over 5.5

that what i think anyways goodluck and iam sure you will all be saying thankyou later on

[shoebox]

CK get on Orlando homes

[ManBearPig]

How come noone is talking about the under in the football game? This line has already dropped from 77 to 72.5 so it has been pounded hard. Mix in the fact that the weather will be horrible tonight I wonder if 72 will even be possible. I think this will continue to drop until game time and prob be around 69 or so. I'm basing that off nothing but if the weather is as bad as they say it supposed to be then throwing the ball up and down the field will prove to be quite difficult and scoring should plummet. The under is the play, the public knows it and the casinos know it.

[africanroller]

Rookie can you tell me where you found 5.5 on Toronto and Florida? Toronto hasnt been under 6 as long as I can remember and the site that I use shows this line as 6 everywhere in Vegas and online. Please let me know thanks.

[pubster77]

Here's the breakdown of final margin of victory for the last 15 years...5 is the key number followed by 7.

1 4.31%
2 6.09%
3 5.85%
4 5.81%
5 6.49%
6 6.09%
7 6.37%
8 5.97%
9 5.73%
10 4.97%
11 4.82%
12 4.31%
13 3.80%
14 3.26%
15 2.98%

Yeah I really dont see how 4 would be a key number and 3 wouldnt. roughly the same amount of games end with that spread.

in football 3, and 7 are the key numbers because more games end with 3 or 7 point margins of victory than any other numbers.

Is it more expensive in nba to buy points from an even line (ie. its more expensive in football to buy from -3 to -2 than say -5 to -4 because 3 is a key number). If even numbers are key numbers in basketball wouldnt they similarly be more expensive to buy from?

Maybe they are, but intuitively I dont think so.

[wangichu]

loving some plays on this board right now.

charlotte always gives boston a hard time, and last time even covered a smaller spread while being in a tough back to back situation and here they are well rested. Boston has also been struggling a bit more on the road lately and this is the bobs last chance to take boston SU with the home crowd's help.on top of that, the line opened at -9.5 which imho was specifically to make sure that the books got a lot of action in on the celtics as that is snuggly fit under that key number 10. If they were worried about getting charlotte money, they would have dropped that line at +10.5 for charlotte. Nevertheless, it came out at 9.5 and has stayed there despite a consistent 80%+ of public money on boston.

CHAR +10 (small ML, they did it last year, and they're better this year)

chicago has lost by double digits in three straight and still is laying 8 (now 9), even thought two of those were home games and one was against the t-wolves. now they host the kings, who frankly blow, and blew their load in the first half of last night's game in New Jersey (who meanwhile suck at home). Now they go to chicago against a team that not only had been holding it down at home prior to this 3 game stretch and are VERY hungry for a win. CK's right on here, this one REAKS of a blowout and the public somehow doesn't see it coming.

CHI -8

[mmaddness08]

Going to play the Morrison Knicks play. I just can't bet on Rockets. There are big time problems here in Houston and the lockeroom has become divided due to McGrady. Some are starting to say he is jaking it and actually been talk of him being sent out. Evidence him quitting in the Toronto game last Friday. Rafer Alston basically called him out, lineup is different everynight and they have not been able to establish any chemistry. The team has actually ran the offense better without McGrady. If this continues, look for him and his fragiled ego to be shipped out. Divided lockerrooms are nothing but trouble.

[cocknocker]

shoebox,

I am fully vested for what I like to play in one day. It's cool though. Orlando should get the job done tonight. They definitely have the incentive and the appropriate team to play tonight, I'll tell you. Good luck on your pick, homes.

[TheLock]

Tailing you tonight heavy on Houston CK

You do good work.

Bought a point to get it to -1.5

[joanapoker]

I have to make my CK pick, so going heavy on HOU-2 (hook buy)

[nonsense48]

Good Evening Gentlemen, sorry but i don't have much to offer this eve as i have been completely swamped at the shop this day. my picks for the day are locked in follows:hou-3 orl-12' tulsa-2' GOOD LUCK AND BEST WISHES EVERYONE

[Netprofit]

off the topic - but just want to share a very good play in tennis:

Ernest Gulbis -165 (the line started on -145 but has gone up for the last 12 hours since Gulbis beats Djokovic in the first round, still very good value here you have a next top 3 player and a GS winner in the future)

[cocknocker]

Injury update:

Tim Thomas and Jarred Jeffries are now out for tonight's game against the Thunder, which explains why the line has not changed all day. They were listed as questionable, but they are now out for the game. Look for the line to go down to a pick em now that the declaration has been made. As a side note, Eddie Curry may see some time tonight for the Knicks as well, which means missed wide open layups and a ead zone when the ball goes in to him as he is an awful passer out of double teams. the under looks like a strong possibility for sure now!

[wangichu]

meant to keep going....

NO is catching too many points here. They are a decent road team who has dropped two in a row at home to the lakers. I remember the game they put on the lakers in LA last year, the lakers got off to a 20 point lead at half, before the hornets fought back and forced kobe to put them away, but covering a 5 point spread 107-104, very twisted loss for laker backers. They also took the lakers SU in the first week of the season in LA. Now, the lakers have taken them twice in NO and if the horny's hope to salvage the season series without getting swept they will have to steal on the road against the lakers. Even if the lakers do win here, it won't be by more than 6.

NO +8/ML

hate to dissent CK, but i think the knicks did blow their load last game against the celtics. the knicks have dropped 7 of 9 and have been a little less stellar on the road. They are the type of all around mediocre teams that the thunder can put a game on or even beat. Also, the thunder have covered 16 of their last 21!! amassing 3 of their SU wins during that period beating toronto and golden state (the latter of whom beat the celtics SU). I just see this as a very winnable game for the thunder against a very beatable team. I don't even care to mess with the ML because I would be happy with a repeat of the t-wolve game where they lost by 2, but covered a 2pt spread and i could see the knicks squeaking it that way. (you don't get to 4-30 without some messed up losses).

tim thomas gets garbage minutes at best so that won't change anything. Jeffries does put in some good minutes, but isn't that much of a contributor, pretty much just a big body in the middle. Can't say it does anything but maybe help the thunder a little.

OKC +2.5

also tailing CK on HOU. I love them discounted that much for injuries. There are still just as many playmakers for HOU and an overwhelming advantage at center with yao, who can also score while clogging the lane.

HOU -1.5

[vassman86]

NHL Play
Pittsburgh Penguins -0.5 Regulation time -145

Rather than laying the wood on the Penguins at -220, take them during regulation time for 80 cents less. Why? If it goes to OT it's anyone's game. Shootouts are even worse.

[danrman]

houston-big
over chi-sac-medium
ball st. very small fun play and the over very small fun play
going n.o. and over 1st half but waiting to play it

[vassman86]

Bobcats +9.5
Bobcats over 180
Rockets -2
Bulls over 211.5
Penguins -0.5 Reg. Time

Good luck to all

[showtime2000]

CK, looks good tonight. Liking your Hosuton pick. Africanroller nice card too! Here's my plays tonight,

NHL
WASHINGTON ML/PL
-last time they played yes phil won 7-1 but they were outshot 48-28 with Nittimakyi saving 47 shots. Guess what, Nittimakyi is not in net tonight it's Biron with his 3.21 goals-against average this season. Not a good mix! Add to the fact that you have a tired Phil team coming off to straight OT games, on the west coast since Dec26 playing a red hot Wash team at home(17-1-1) on the season outscoring their opponents 4-2 at home. Good revenge game for Washington to return the thumping they recieved last game.

NASHVILLE ML and UNDER
-Colorado has been scored 11-2 last 3 games losisng 3 straight, can't seem to score especially with Stastny and Sakic out. The are 2-6 last 8 in Nashville. Yes Nashville has lost 4 straight but they go up against a team that scan't score.

BOSTON ML
-yes the trends favor Minnesota, but aside from their previous meeting this year look at the last time they played eachother, 1 in 2007, 1 in 2005, 2 in 2004, 1 in 2002, 2 in 2001. I'd throw the head to head trends out the window for this matchup as these teams and palyers have chnged up over the years.

LAying off Pittsburgh(too much to risk)

[isiah121]

CK, seems like the line for Hornets won't be moving anytime. It was at 7.5 but came back down to 7.

[danrman]

public are on these sides here at 6 central time
boston-73%
houston-73%
orlando-61%
memphis-76%
knicks-83%
dallas vs. the clippers-only 50/50-thats a suprise
sac-55%
lakers-66%

[danrman]

MANBEARPIG-i took the over in the ball st. game as it was pounded downward due to weather and i took it at 71 1/2 very small play

[isovitis3]

Lakers over.
They will destroy Hornets.
It is their chance to lead the championship,
after Celtics` last losses

[danrman]

adding ball st. medium as my "personal play" of the day.. these plays are 2-1... ball st. doesnt have their coach and everyone is taking overated tulsa... good luck

[danrman]

also adding utah utes bball.. lsu open conf. play next w/ alabama so im playing utah

[joanapoker]

Charlotte is killing the Celts....

[BigMoneyMan]

I don't know if CK posted it but I told him to take a small wager on Charlotte ML. WE ARE GETTING PAID TODAY!! I feel it.

[cocknocker]

shoe,

The rout is on in Orlando, baby!

[joanapoker]

I'm not seeing this good......I can start saying goodbye to my small plays at 1st halfs...NY and MEM.....

[ManBearPig]

wow washington is bad how do you score 6 pts in a quarter in the NBA...I mean I've seen JV girls score more.

[africanroller]

Blackhawks