GSW moneyline looks good at even, should I play it?
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Wade averages 8.4 pt a game in the 4th qtr this year...insane number, which means he is taking over at the end of games...with the Hawks ending their long road trip I can't see them kicking it into an extra gear in the 4th to counter what Wade will do...especially on 4 days rest...I took the Heat buying 1/2 to get -2...BTW you are an excellent addition to the sbr forum this year cocknocker...plays for me tonite
Heat -2
Philly +10.5
Hornets +7.5
Pistons -5.5
Pistons 1st half -3.5
Warriors +3.5
3 team teaser
Philly +17.5
Hornets +14
Warriors +9.5Comment -
The total for the rockets/warriors seems fishy
CK interesting 70% of the bettors on the over yet the over under has
dropped 217 to 215.
I personally think the game should go under,houston traditionally is not a high octane offense..... the total seems to high.
Im looking for under 215Comment -
NHL PLAY!!!!
Florida Panthers/Calgary Flames Under
Florida has gone over just 9 times in 27 games for the second lowest in the NHL while Calgary is 50%.
Both teams have gone under in 4 of their last 6 and the last time these two teams met with the same two goaltenders in action it ended 2-1.Comment -
80% of people betting on miami and the spread hasnt shifted once. I'm still waiting for it to go up so i can lock the hawks for a good amount.Comment -
What's the status on J-rich for the Suns game?Comment -
My strongest plays for tonight are detroit -6 (locked) and atlanta +2.5(pending). Does anyone have any input on why these are bad plays?Comment -
CK, I noticed the ML for that Sixers/Cavaliers game is a bit off. I can get the Sixers at +525. Not bad considering with that type of spread it should be +350. Cavaliers are 5-1 SU against Philly in its last 6 games but they are only 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home against Philly AND 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against the Sixers. Illgauskaus and Gibson will be out too so Cleveland will be short handed tonight. The line hasn't moved at all even with 75% of bettors on Cleveland. It has stayed steady at +10.5. You think a small play on the ML is worthwhile, CK?Comment -
Dam, my simulation shows miami taking the hawks out by 15.Comment -
Ya I saw your post after I posted mine. I guess I'll just stay away. My research shows that hawks should beat up miami though because theyre offense really runs through D-Wade and he cant always keep having such dominating games. But I guess I'll stay away.Comment -
my final card is a nice reverse
boston -6.5
over 189
celtics are too hot right now, including thier bench, they have all found thier stroke from the field while the hornets are playing over thier head after 2 consecutive blowout wins against weak competition and wont know what hit them when they step into boston, their defense is overwhelming and will contain chris paul while keeping peja and co off the 3pt line .. cant forget to mention that new orleans bench can not hang with the celtics bench if paul goes out celtics will take full advantage
prediction - 103 - 91 with the hornets making a late push but toooo lateComment -
Mr. CK,
sry for my poor english
)
Im look special games today and i need really coorect minde.
Lakers, Detroit, Cavs, Miami, Suns or Orlando, Portland they louse laste game but im belive of them and special is thah joung team :P Houston, Nets !!!Comment -
My pick is the 76ers +11½ because if you look at there last three games they were down by 7(home), 8(away), and 8(home) it seems that they can hold on to the cavaliers tail.
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Hey CK, awesome week so far. let's cash some tickets tonight!!!!!!! Card looks great tonight, loving Detroit tonight.
Noticed some NHL players in here, cool! You all are on Bruins, something to point out, Atlanta has lost 5 straight home games with their last taking Rangers to overtime and Boston not fairing to well in Atla last 4, 1-3...
Another team to point out, Ottawa playing in Washington. Ottawa has lost 7 straight road games and if Washington is going with Jose Theodre in net i am pounding Ottawa at a moneyline of +140.Comment -
anyone got idea on the new orleans and boston lines and overs?Comment -
or the grizzlies and chicago...im stuck on those two games...not sure to take the overs, line or hd to hd....Comment -
Here are the road power rankings for the NBA teams playing tonight
Atlanta 7.0
New Orleans 6.0
Chicago 9.5
Houston 6.0
Indiana 10.5
San Antonio 7.0
Orlando7.0
Clippers I couldn't find for some odd reason
Sacramento 13.5
Toronto 8.0
Home teams Power rating
Boston 2.0
Cleveland 3.0
Miami 8.0
Minnesota 9.5
Memphis 9.0
Detroit 3.5
Golden State 7.0
Lakers 1.0
New Jersey 7.5
Portland 3.5
Phoenix 5.0
Alright, so what you would do is take the power rating of the home team and the power rating of the visitor and subtract the larger number from the lower number. Then you compare the results to the spread.
So for instance you would take Boston's home rating number 2.0 and New Orleans road power rating 6.0
Subtract 6.0 from 2.0 and you get 4.0
The line for today's game is Boston-7, and down to 6.5 on some books
so New Orleans + anything over 4 is extra lovin'.
Example 2
Golden State home power rating 7.0 and Houston's road power rating is 6.0
Subtract the 7 from the 6 and you get Golden State-1
The line was Houston-2.5
any scenario where Golden State gets any points is a sound wager
Anytime that I do this equation and I see a scenario where a team has more than 7 or more points on their side, there is a good chance that a blowout is on the way if the away team has been on the road for more than one game.
The linemaker was right on the nail he would let go of Orlando-2 at Phoenix, yet he made Phoenix-2 and left it there until the losers of Laker money noticed and could attest to the fact that the Suns cost them money when they last saw them on television. Orlando is a beast in the east. They have no business catching points in any game on this road trip, and that includes Utah. The haven't beaten Phoenix straight up since 2006. And with Phoenix doing a lot of minute mixing, etc, changes in the lineup and what have you, I think that I am going to take a stab at Orlando +100 moneyline in this game tonight. Yes.
Adding Orlando+100 moneyline (CK Mafia knows how I love +100 wagers)Comment -
Nice work boys.. Kickin' myself for not taking the Cats yesterday as that game played out just like I thought it would with the Mavs playing down to their competition which they've become masters at..
For what it's worth.. my rescoring model has CLE 102 PHI 96. Which looks perfect for an OVER and with ZIG out, PHI will force the tempo of this game. PHI looked great in the first quarter the other night pushing the tempo and my guess is that Mo Cheeks has been getting his team to focus on this.. tempo, tempo, tempo..
HOU/GS.. I have as a solid under and GS covering if not winning outright.. the line is sticking to +1.5 with heavy action on Houston and as mentioned above, no Artest, T-Mac with limited minutes and YAO off the flu... I don't care how many IV's you've had, you still feel like shit for a solid week after having the flu, no food, nothing but fluids.. I like GS to win straight up and the under.. 106-96. 64% on the over and the line has moved 1.5 down
LAL/SAC after a straight up loss and giving up double digits to 6 SACTO players the other night, I look for the Lakers and Kobe to put the clamps on Salmons and Garcia. We all know when Kobe puts it out there he's one of the best stoppers in the game which has an effect on the rest of the team from Bynum to Fisher. I like the UNDER in this game as well LAL 110 Sac 94 while 16.5 is a shit load of points it's a sharp line.. I just can't take a side in this one although we have close to 60% on Sac and the line hasn't dropped and with similar numbers on the over the line is staying put at 215..
IND/DET.. love the under in this game as well at 200 even. Det knows how to win championships and that's with defense. I look for them to try to get back on track tonight..
BOL ALL.. Rock on..
\m/Comment -
CTS5,
What i am saying is that the Hawks have lost 3 in a row. Miami has won 4 straight. The rankings had Miami-1. The line is inching down to reflect that. But to take Miami-2.5 is the same as taking Miami -4 with that hook on there. The Heat are just in a bad situation to cover, because even the linemaker knows that they will get the Hawks best effort to get off of the shnide.Comment -
does anyone know if j-rich is in phoenix... because if he is, i'm on the magic... line movement supports that with almost even money.Comment -
I really dont see the Lakers taking care of all that chalk!!
With there fourth quarter blunders I dont see them covering tonight...
Anyone with me on this??Comment -
CK, should I put Sixers before Detroit or vice versa in an "IF" bet?Comment -
I think Lakers will win by 30 tonightComment -
CK, so whats your final card??Comment -
CK - Are the road/home power rankings avl to the public (meaning free) This is another concept I knew nothing of and would love to be able to factor that into trying to make pics.Comment -
Also we have RLM on the Toronto and LAC games which leads me to belive that the wrong teams are favored here...anyone have a reason why not to bet either?Comment -
CK,
There's no way I would take miami at even a pick. I really liked the hawks but after doing research it seems that miami has a good chance to win the game. Before my research I saw hawks winning this game easily. I wanted to take hawks for a big chunk, but now I'm down to no play on that game or take the hawks for a smaller bet. I'm still feeling the warriors to take care of business at home against rockets. However, the whole if-yness about rockets players playing or not playing is giving me some doubts. We'll stay tuned.Comment -
you know the biggest reason i lay off the heat in games like these is their complete lack of size in the middle, one of the hawks strengths. Beasely is the biggest presence they really have, and horford and smith have like a foot in reach on him, not to mention marvin williams and zaza. the heat have 2 people over 6'9" and mcgloireonly gets about 5 minutes per game and i don't see mark blount scaring off the hawks big men. I even think i like them here.
hawks +2.5/MLComment -
also liking horny's 1st half spread. they've been diong a good job of establishign themselves on the road in the first half, and like portland i think they'll be able to trade shots with the celtics, hopefully minus the collapse in the last 3 minutes of the 1st halfComment -
Ok... Think I'm gonna lay off the Det under because I think IND will get their shit pushed in tonight. When is the last time the Stones have lost 4 in a row? Last year they lost three straight once and won on the road in PHI to get off the schnide and go on a 10 game tear.. I still like the under but just think there are too many situational factors that could allow for the proverbial moosing. I really agree with you tonight, CK, that your Stones come out strong and don't lay off.. Game's in Det and the crowd will get this team fired up. Sheed, Rip and Iverson will have big nights offensively and Prince will be all over Granger like stink on shit..Comment -
where did u find those power rankings?Comment -
I am surprised that no one came onto the thread extolling Portland tonight. I am surprised that they arent favored by an even 10 after losing that many ats in a row, but the 8.5 is fine. I don't care about that. Nor do I care to bet on them right now, here today. But I am watching.When they get the covering machine going you can't catch on after the 2nd one. All that I know is that next week will be Blazers' week all week long with doubling up on two games straight. I'm gonna wear them out with these plays, Portland 12/16, 12/18/08.Comment
