Leans for Thursday 12/11/08

[cs11787]

Wattup CK. Whats the highest you would take the Utah over at? and the Lowest you would take the Dal under?

[cs11787]

Also on your Wash play, do you think itd be best to take the first half Washington seeing as how Celtics usually play strong in the 2nd half?

[cocknocker]

Highest total number I would take the Utah/Portland over at is 196
The lowest that i would take Dallas/Charlotte is 188.5

[ediamonds2001]

CK,

Been scouring these boards for 2 yrs + now and have not really read anything else like what you post. So you have prompted me to use my keyboard and not my mouse. I have been playing some of your picks and had pretty good results.
Prior to Monday my small bankroll got hammered as everything i bet on tanked horribly. I play 50 to 100 per teaser/parlay/straight up bets. I was able to get $50 up to $1050 over the course of three weeks before this weekend and this was without reading your posts. Now I don't know if this was luck or skill (doubt it) but I want to play smart to build up a nice little sum on my online account. I'm talking 10 -20$ bets here just to get get to triple digits and work from there.

What would you say are the safest bets if there is such a thing?
over /under appear to be smart plays since there are always more apparent factors to consider (ex. schedule, injuries, trades) and these examples are easy to locate on any sports site. now if i go to some other sites they have consensus info and team experts among other things that seems to skew ones judgment.

any input would be appreciated. I know it sounds stupid to some but I either have to get a second job or get good at this and make this a viable source of income. you have proven that it can be done I just want to find a simple starting point to make maybe 800 - 1000 bucks a month once I get rolling.

I guess I'll see what happens. thanks for all the helpful nba analysis and picks info you really are a good person for what you do.

ediamonds

[IrwinFletcher]

Yo C.. got an opinion on the side for the Char/Dal game... I'm thinkin' that the Bob's might play with a bit of enthusiasm giving some players who normally don't get much playing time a bit of confidence. More than that I'm thinking the Mav's may play down a bit to the JV squad they meet on the floor. Fan participation might also be a bit lower than normal..

Am I whacked here or what?

[pronk]

pronk,

I have seen some crazy movement of Wisconsin Green Bay against Idaho State. The line went from -10.5 to -12 in less than an hour. I know for a fact that Idaho State pulled off a close 60-58 loss to Wisconsin on the road, but one look at their road record indicates that they stink. After the ats shocker against the badgers, this looks as if they are about to have a huge let down. i think that i am going to try this game and play the favorite here. Let me know what you think on that one....

Goddam flyers let me down last night.

CK, i like this Idaho team a lot. I would even take them on ML +600. +12 is a gift. Remember how Bengals played against the badgers?

But my favorite play tonight is Miami (OH) -14 against Wisc.Milwaukee. I predict 62-39 Miami. This team is playing incredible D. Last Saturday Xavier was very lucky to escape with the 7 point victory over this Miami team.

GL.

[cocknocker]

CS11787

Oh I forgot... Yes, I think that Washington is getting too many points in the 1st half. they are a fast starting team. The 1st half under looks good to me, as the teams collectively average 97 points in the 1st half. Boston 49 Washington 48, which is 97. Boston is the best shooting percentage defense in the league, allowing a measeley 41.5% field goal average. Washington shoots 45%. So something has to give. I see a first half under, 2nd half over kind of thing going on here. BigMoney knows what I'm talking about.

Gotta remember here, the linemaker is not your friend. 98 he thinks there will be less than 100 points scored in the 1st half. If he felt that there would be 100 points scored in the 1st half then why didn't he make the line 99.5? or 100 even? The lines will be real tight today, with only 3 games on the schedule, fellas. We have to bet to lose. Meaning that we wager in a manner as if we are doing the exact opposite of what we should do as a rational human being. I see that the public is leaning slightly more on the over (53-47%) that's all it takes. There's money on both sides of the fence, just a little more on one side. I like the 1st half under. Their history tells me that they always get close to but not quite over 100. That's what making the 1st over/under 98 means.

Me personally, I am not betting the half on this one. I am concentrating more on the Portland 1st half. Hell it was even offered at -105. You've gotta love that. It's cheaper to take them.

[Alex68]

Hi Ck, thanks for another great picks last night. So r u making a play for portland 1H? What do u think about Utah -2.5?

[cocknocker]

Darnnit, pronk!

I already played Wisconsin Green Bay, so i can't take Idaho State now. I don't see how they are gonna be able to come with that same energy two straight games with the next opponent being a seemingly step down in competition. I guess that I'm gonna find out!

I've got a couple a dollars to put on that one. I'll play Miami (OH)-14 too, but i will get it to -13.5. Touche'! I'll holla back

[cocknocker]

Alex68,

I can't see Portland losing 6 games in a row ats. You know what i mean?

[IrwinFletcher]

I get nothin'?... c'mon boys

[pronk]

Pronk, What do you think about Troy tonight against MTSU. 13 points seems to be a lot to give that team when you know those guys can shoot.

Africanroller, this line is a trap. Troy will lose by 20. GL.

[wangichu]

Hi Ck, thanks for another great picks last night. So r u making a play for portland 1H? What do u think about Utah -2.5?

with utah coming off a win and portland coming off a home loss, that line is just way too low for utah to be the right play. At first i thought i was looking a gift horse in the mouth, but the line was -7 with deron williams out. There's just no reason it should drop at 5 points less with boozer out. He's good, but his minutes aren't worth that many points. The books know that people will kill to play on utah -2 at home. Portland is just too good on the road here, i'm debating a small ML play on portland even, but i think the first half is the best bet on this game (save maybe the over)

and i just can't imagine them dropping that low of a line in light of portland's recent ATS struggles unless they're going to cover.

[SlicWilly3]

ck.....thanks for your picks bro.

I'm loving the Wizards tonight.....Just waiting for it to go up a little more.
On the Mavs UNDER 191, and also taking Utah Jazz ML at -135.

What's ur best college play tonight if you dont mind me asking? Anything you feel really strong about?

[wangichu]

Africanroller, this line is a trap. Troy will lose by 20. GL.

thanks for the tip pronk, adding MIA (OH) -13.5 to my card, keep dropping the good plays on us man. GL tonight.

[lolisaiahlol]

Hey CK thanks for the Pick Last night, umm im debating on the Celtics -10, what do you think? should i buy a point off?

[wangichu]

CK are you throwing a percentage play on the wiz ML tonight or do you think that's a little brash?

[maddogmadden86]

CK you are the man you help people out like you dont even know lets cash these tickets adn continue to kill these books!

[africanroller]

Pronk I didnt play it for that very reason. At first glance it looked good but as I did more research I found that MTSU should blow their doors off. I just stayed away from the game.

I took Fairfield, Wisc/GB and Nova tonight.

[joanapoker]

CK,

just to get the FINAL CARD today (not because I don't know what u picked, but I also would like to know the exact lines that u got)

Thx

P.S. u r really a breeze of fresh air in the wagering business

[maddogmadden86]

hey isahia i thought you were bigmoney man when u posted you think you could change youra vatar since its the same as his

[jjusttiff]

jjusttiff,

I do get paid for what I do, only I prefer to get paid by the sportsbooks instead of by the average bettor for my picks. Society on the whole has enough problems right now. I am here to help the college kids, and the guessers. Members of the CK Mafia are familiar with this true story.

Two years ago I got a heartbreaking email from a kid who was beaten to a pulp by the thug collectors for a local book on campus at the University of Illinois. I took him under my wing, and tutored him on wagering for awhile and at the same time he tailed my picks. I told him if he could match what I did with wagers that he could afford, and show me evidentiary proof that he had done so, then I would give him half of what he came up with under one condition; that he start his own book at the school.

Long story short he came up with $4500.00 starting with a bankroll of $600.00. He showed me his bamk deposit slip and I promptly I sent him $2250.00. With that he started his own on campus book taking max bets of only $100.00. By the end of the school year he had roughly $40,000.00 tailing my picks keeping them to himself and collecting vigorish and loss money. He bought himself a used Corvette and sent me pictures of himself and his new hot girlfriend. He went from a punk to a big shot. He is still rocking his book to this day although he is in his final year at school. He is thinking of moving off shore and going online when he gets out.

Another time that comes to mind is when a friend a neighbor and handy man was short on cash and asked me to help him out. Originally it was to help him get money to take care of bills. His name is Country. We call him that because he is a native of Arkansas. I helped him turn $200.00 into a cool $3000.00 in front of an Coversexperts audience from as diverse places as where you are, Australia to South Africa. And at the same time it was a tutorial for all on money management as well as I indicated how much he was to put up; his wins/losses and earnings. No one had ever seen anything like that before. But all were appreciative of the lessons. And I appreciate the fellowship that spawned from that experience as that is when the CK Mafia came into being. They lifted up my spirits when I was thrown unfairly in the rehab area by boycotting the normal threads and instead posting their plays and conversation in the Covers' bastille. We're the best kept secret of internet wagering. An underground group, if you will. Thank you for your positive feed back. i lookk forward to serving you and the 4,000 or so other visitors to my threads every day.

cocknocker.... im one of the guessers! hehehehe well thankyou again, dont get that sort of thread in australia!

[cocknocker]

Heck no Wangichu,

I can't play Washington on the moneyline. I think Boston will win this game, but just by 4-6 points.

IrwinFletcher,

No! Charlotte is short on bodies. It will be a footrace in the 4th quarter to get that cover. I don't think a shorthanded team is a stronger take than a tired team. Dallas is deep at all positions.

lolisiahlol,

If taking Boston, get off of that key number. 10 is a common margin of defeat in basetball, so you want to get under that number if in case the Celtics do win by 10 exactly. I would suggest you get a hook, and make your spread 9.5.

[natelli1]

ck, like many i love your write ups .. and 9 out of 10 times i agree with your picks but tonight i think the celtics are going to hand it to the wizards .. last year the wizards won a home and home series against the celtics, REVENGE factor, im telling you the celtics did not forget that and plus the wizards do play better at home and can come back from large deficits to cover spreads or even win as we have seen in the last couple games(lakers/pistons) but i dont see this happening against a celtics team that plays outstanding defense and will lock down butler and jamison and let there role players beat them, which i do not see happening .. tell me what you think

[IrwinFletcher]

Right on C.. thanks for the reply.. I'll be layin' off the side..

[maddogmadden86]

so ck what are you smoking on tonight

[lolisaiahlol]

ok

[DaProfessor23]

i got Celtics vs Wizards Over [+191] in my 5 team 5.0 parlay tonight . good play or no , this and Trail Blazers [+7.5] are the only 2 i don't believe are locks or close to it . does any1 think i have good chance at winning those 2?

[wangichu]

so ck what are you smoking on tonight

hopefully something purple, cuz that's what i'll be doing

[africanroller]

DA none of your picks are locks because there is no such thing. Once you get that word out of your vocabulary things will start to get better

[wangichu]

so ck what are you smoking on tonight

hopefully something purple, cuz that's what i'll be doing

nah seriously, i feel like i try to be his secretary sometimes, but I just figure i'm giving him more time to research those plays we all love...

POR +1 1st half
POR/UTAH over 192.5
DAL/CHAR under 191
WAS +10.5 (or 12 if it gets hight enough to buy it there)

[DaProfessor23]

DA none of your picks are locks because there is no such thing. Once you get that word out of your vocabulary things will start to get better

LMFAO -- sorry , i meant to say im confident in the rest of my picks , not so much in the 2 i listed above ...

[Alex68]

Thanks, wangichu.

[maddogmadden86]

hahahah you and me both Wang hopefully CK is as well i'm sure he is in the great state of cali thats exactly what i'm playing i just wanted to make sure we got so many people putting input now its hard as hell to keep up lets cash these tickets kad!! and we will all be smoking that good ish

[The_Kid]

CK, here is some information regarding tomorrow's game with Philly/Cleveland.

By TOM WITHERS, AP Sports Writer 25 minutes ago

CLEVELAND (AP)—Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskas is expected to miss at least two games after spraining his left ankle in a win at Philadelphia on Wednesday, the second significant Cleveland player to go down with an injury this week.

Ilgauskas rolled his ankle when he tried to block former teammate Donyell Marshall’s shot in the fourth quarter and came down on the foot of the 76ers forward. The 7-foot-3 Ilgauskas, who had reconstructive surgery on his left foot a few years back, was able to limp to the locker room without assistance.

X-rays taken on Ilgauskas’ ankle were negative, but the Cavaliers, who have won 10 straight games and are 18-1 since Nov. 3, said he will sit out Friday’s home game against Philadelphia. The team called it a moderate sprain but did not provide a timetable on Ilgauskas’ return in its statement and said his status will be “updated as appropriate.”