Leans for Thursday 12/11/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Thursday 12/11/08
    With such a small board for the day, I had to do a lot of research to come up with some decent plays. The trade that Charotte was involved with caused me to lose one of my plays that I had in mind. I know that the linemaker is out to get us with the spread that he will offer for Dallas, so I will lay off of that one, because Charlotte could very well get blown out, with me hoping for lady luck to be on my side. the original number was Dallas-10.5 and the total was 191. i doubt very seriously that it will be that way when the sun comes up as it has been taken off the board altogether. Whatever...

    The Bobcats and the Mavs are a game that has both teams limping in with weary legs. the Mavs legs were so weary after the double overtime thriller aginst the Spurs that they didn't even practice on Wednesday.The Bobcats were weary from playing shorthanded after the trade. None of the new plaers will suit up for this game. The under has cashed 3-1 in the three games in Dallas between these two teams in the brief history between these teams playing in Texas. The average over/under line has been 198.5, and the average game scores have been 189. The shorthanded Charlotte team could only muster 89 points against the Hornets. Now Dallas gives up 102.8 points per game at home, but Charlotte won't come anywhere near that with this crew. The Bobcats are missing Gerald Wallace which won't help. Dallas is just plain weary. Double overtime with one day rest? I'll take the under.

    Dallas/Charlotte Under 191

    The Wizards hav been playinga decent brand of basketball lately and what team better to test their new found identity against than the Celtics, a team that they own at home (4-1 straight up and 3-2 ats last 5).

    The trade won't hurt them that much as Daniels was not a significant part of the rotation with Nick Young getting big minutes. Stevenson and Butler and company are not afraid of the big bad Celtics. I will take my chances with the Wizzleskins hanging in there against the large number. This is one game where I will wait until the very end of the day to make my wager, as obviously the public will be all over the Celtics. But this is simply too many points for the C's to cover specially coming off of an overtime grinder against the Pacers in their last game.

    Washington+10.5

    (buying a point to get over the key number although i am quite sure that i will have more points than that if i wait and buy my point later)

    Portland and Utah face off in Salt Lake City, a place that has been a house of horrors for the Blazers. But these are the new Blazers, confident, cocky and underestimated. They have players at every position on the floor that can score at will. The Jazz for their part are on of the best home team bets in the NBA for years. They score 104 points at home on the average. The Blazers score 95.8 a game on the road,but those numbers are skewed somewhat because they have played a lot of games on the east coast against more defensive minded teams. The Jazz are your typical west coast team that likes to get up and down. The teams have average over/under lines of 194.5 and actual game scores of 200.5 in games in Salt Lake City with the over cashing the ticket 3-1 in the last 4 games. i will take this opportunity to take the over.

    Portland/Utah over 192.5



    NFL Football

    Bears-2.5 (buying a hook to get under the key number)

    Saints don't like popsicle weather, and smash mouth teams. The consensus is 53-47% in favor of the Saints. The line has not moved. The moneyline (-150/+130) is correct for the Bears to get the cover too. They are physically superior over the Saints, although their d-backs need a lesson in coverage. The Saints are playing with double revenge, but when a team has you rnmber, they just have your number.
  • Nellyinctown
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-08-08
    • 216

    #2
    Thanks for the Golden State tips on Weds. As for NFL, I agree, this game could very well look like the MNF game of last week, with one Power rush team and one finesse team. I am a Buc fan so I try to stay away from betting on the NFC South, but I think the Bears win this one by a TD.
    Comment
    • innovator
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-28-08
      • 238

      #3
      CK you are the man too..all great picks(except suns), but i guess we all new that was a longshot..well,maybe not THAT long afterall..thanks dude
      Comment
      • Spoon
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-21-08
        • 592

        #4
        @cocknocker

        Question... if you were to put a 7pt teaser together for NBA tomorrow how would you lean in the Portland/Utah game - (+10 P or +4 U)? I was thinking...

        Boston -2.5
        Dallas -3.5
        and +10 Portland, yet not so sure.
        Comment
        • oso
          SBR Rookie
          • 11-11-08
          • 44

          #5
          CK you are on fire, how can i be the man when you are the MAN! I am sure you already know this as I mentioned it last night, but Portland has not covered 5 straight. Its like being on the blackjack table and you lose 5 hands in a row you bet the house on the 6th hand!! The odds to win or lose 6 hands in a row are astronomical! I am hoping that you can confirm that is the case with Portland.

          I dont think the front line of the jazz can contain the blazers front line. I see alot of layups for the blazers. I do like the over as you said, the blazers have been on the east coast where all they do is play defense.

          I like over and the blazers

          Your final card will a $500 parlay for me.

          Keep it up you are well on your way to matching your torrid 65-17 run last year!!!

          Thanks again!!!!
          Comment
          • Broncos9798
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-02-08
            • 236

            #6
            Props to your recent picks CK. Your writeups saved me some serious money tonight(and made me some). You prevented my bet on the Nuggets full game line(even though I had to get a little crazy on the 2h line). You have also convinced me to stay away from the Lakers, even though I was a little tempted(Patriot linemaker experiment).

            I am to scared to go against the Celtics so I am staying away.

            Im going to look more into the Dallas under pick....I definatly am feeling the theory you have here.

            Portland/Utah over 192.5 all day!

            Keep up the great writeups.

            Props to Carmelo Anthony for that unbelievable 3rd quarter.
            Comment
            • isiah121
              SBR Sharp
              • 12-04-08
              • 313

              #7
              CK, seems like the line for Portland/Utah moved to 194. Do you think it'll come back down?

              I think Portland/Utah over 192.5 is a good play. Portland's lost to Orlando should motivate the team to play hard. And Portland lost previously to Utah, so there should be revenge in their mind?
              Comment
              • wangichu
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-07-08
                • 946

                #8
                LOVE the wiz here, one of the games i've been really waiting for, just like the bobs hosting boston earlier in the year. really like the play on dallas charlotte's under too all things considered, especially with the way they've been playing defense and the way they just lost one of their better creators.

                As for the utah portland game, this one is throwing me for a loop. I will definitely make a play on the over, but i will tread lightly because i hate O/Us to begin with. I have been trying to find things about their past matchups to tell me something, but i'm having trouble finding anything concrete with all factors considered. Two plays that i ordinarily love in this situation are obviously jazz at home in the big game, supported by the line jumping by 1 so quickly, the second is portland in the first half, as they win MOST if not all of their first half road spreads as dogs. That first game form earlier this year is what is messing me up. Time to sleep this one off.
                Comment
                • wangichu
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-07-08
                  • 946

                  #9
                  Originally posted by isiah121
                  CK, seems like the line for Portland/Utah moved to 194. Do you think it'll come back down?

                  I think Portland/Utah over 192.5 is a good play. Portland's lost to Orlando should motivate the team to play hard. And Portland lost previously to Utah, so there should be revenge in their mind?
                  the thing that gets me about the revenge angle is that portland has already dropped two IN phoenix... also as far as things go, the jazz are missing boozer now (thought with 11 games out they're used to that by now) but more importantly, they played the first game without deron. Boozer is good, but deron (as much as he bugs the crap out of me) is a superstar, in my opinion, moreso than anyone on the blazers.
                  Comment
                  • BookBuster
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-09-08
                    • 211

                    #10
                    Hey ck Thanks again last night......those parlays i did with your picks cashed....instead of takin' the phoenix moneyline i took the +12...kinda had a thought bout that myself....where yes it was the patriot experiment...and how can a laker team that lost the previous night favor by so much against a phoenix team...anyways...that cashed....picks look good for tonight.....being a better football capper the Over on tonights saints/bears game is looking pretty good if weather doesn't play a factor.....saints avg about 20+ in almost all losses....bears are the same....so no matter who loses I'm figuring it'll be a BIG loss if u catch my drift....let me know what u think...thanks
                    Comment
                    • NBA Hero
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-05-08
                      • 1886

                      #11
                      utah had two close games. they are glad to be back home to a friendly crowd. They should have a good game against the young blazers.

                      greg oden hasnt lived uo to his being a no. 1 pick, unlike pryzy who is getting his mins. oden has been slaughtered by jermaine in the 4th quarter.

                      milsap is expected to step up.

                      no one is expecting rondo and the celtics to have a field day?
                      Comment
                      • walbjj
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 10-28-08
                        • 105

                        #12
                        wats the feeling on was/bos o/u here?
                        Comment
                        • IrwinFletcher
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 11-10-08
                          • 96

                          #13
                          Looks like another sweep night brotha.. Still lookin' into that Bos/Was game but Boston coming off three days rest may come out a bit flat on the offensive end and look to control the ball and not get into a track meet with the Wizzles.. Add to that they travel to Nawlins tomorrow night... may be a let down here in the capital.
                          Comment
                          • joanapoker
                            Restricted User
                            • 12-09-08
                            • 2275

                            #14
                            To CK:

                            I've only registered here to say that you give an amazing insight on all nba games and in top of that u make amazing bets and u share with this community!
                            My many thanks to you and keep with the spectacular work!

                            In a more personal note to you, I've been wondering how much u wager on average by bet and have u ever had any invite to be a linemaker for a sportsbook??

                            cheers
                            Joana
                            Comment
                            • innovator
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-28-08
                              • 238

                              #15
                              uh oh....
                              Comment
                              • fiveteamer
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-14-08
                                • 10805

                                #16
                                the O/U int he Jazz game really flew up, 194 now.
                                Comment
                                • Sloanie29
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-03-08
                                  • 111

                                  #17
                                  Jazz/Portland O/U now at 195!!!!
                                  Comment
                                  • coolmil
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 12-11-08
                                    • 33

                                    #18
                                    Thanks

                                    CK, I am new to board but appreciate your posts. Very enlighting. What are key numbers that you mention in your posts.. Thanks Cool
                                    Comment
                                    • 2qwik
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 11-12-08
                                      • 61

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by joanapoker
                                      To CK:

                                      I've only registered here to say that you give an amazing insight on all nba games and in top of that u make amazing bets and u share with this community!
                                      My many thanks to you and keep with the spectacular work!

                                      In a more personal note to you, I've been wondering how much u wager on average by bet and have u ever had any invite to be a linemaker for a sportsbook??

                                      cheers
                                      Joana

                                      CK,
                                      Dont go to the dark side by working for a sportsbook.

                                      Cant let those guys take one of the few good guys left
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #20
                                        Just waking up in the morning
                                        gotta thank God
                                        I don't know but today seems kind of odd.
                                        No barking from the dog.
                                        No smog.
                                        and Styles cooked the breakfast
                                        with no hog....

                                        I'm a Los Angeles refugee relocated in the Bay, whatever... Okay onto the action.

                                        As expected and as necessary, the line for the total on the Utah/Portland game has gone up a bit, and it should have with the consensus at 77-23% for the over. The public is right on this one, so it has to go up. I suggest making the play sooner than later on that one, as it won't go back down now. I made my play last night as I knew that the line would rise by the morning.

                                        The same goes for the Dallas line, which was 10.5 prior to it being taken off the board. I went to sleep and wallah! Presto a 13 point spread. The total has stayed the same despite 81% of the pulic being on the over, which is comforting to me for the members of the CK Mafia to get their plays off knowing that the line is stiff although the public is HEAVY on the over. For all intents and purposes, the line should be doing what the Utah/Portland line is doing (The Portland/Utah line has less of a majority on the over yet is climbing quickly) and going up a few points. This under play is going to be sick wid it!

                                        As far as the Washington/Boston game is concerned the public is so wrong on this one that it is pathetic. Despite the way that the Wizzleskins play the Celtics, the public is pounding the Gang Green at an alarming 80-20%, which of course has driven up the line somewhat to 10. I encourage bettors interested in taking the Wizzleskins to wait until 15 minutes prior to the game or whenever the line reaches 11.5 and buy it to 12.5 with a one point buy. With consensus numbers of 90% to 10% on some polling sites, I don't doubt that the line will reach 11.5 with no problems. Squares actually think that there is such a thing as free money. On nights with a limited card like tonight, the books clean up by playing on public perception and ignorance. The moneyline for this game is -600/+450 which is a corresponding line for a -12/-12.5 line. So it is off a bit, and if I am correct, the line will rise with ease to the 11.5 line that I spoke of. Taking the Celtics tonight will be monetary suicide.

                                        As far as the Blazers/Jazz matchup, I find it very hard to go against the Jazz at home, although the Blazers (as Oso has pointed out) have lost 5 straight games ats. it is VERY hard for a team that is over .500 to do that. One encouraging sign for Blazer backers is that the public is all over the Jazz 70-30% yet the line is still where it started, hovering at 2. The moneyline for the game is -140/+120, which is indicative of a -2.5 line. I look for the line to go up to that number by noon. This is going to be the most competitve of the games today and it won't be decided by more than 4 points. If the line stays at these umbers combined with the consensus being so heavy on the Jazz, then Portland is the play taking into account the 5 straight ats losses theory. Portland is a notoriously fast starting team. As Wang pointed out they are lights out as a first half road dog.
                                        Comment
                                        • Sloanie29
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 12-03-08
                                          • 111

                                          #21
                                          CK, so on the Port/Jazz game, is the over still the play in your opinion? if so up to what total? or would you play the spread depending on where it ends up closer to game time?
                                          Comment
                                          • cnleaf
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-08-08
                                            • 346

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by cocknocker
                                            the line for the total on the Utah/Portland game has gone up a bit, and it should have with the consensus at 77-23% for the over. The public is right on this one, so it has to go up. I suggest making the play sooner than later on that one, as it won't go back down now. I made my play last night as I knew that the line would rise by the morning.
                                            Sloanie29, u should get it now.
                                            Comment
                                            • Sloanie29
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-03-08
                                              • 111

                                              #23
                                              cnleaf,

                                              get the over 194 now?
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                Spoon,

                                                The book on 7 point teasers is to take home teams. The lines are already slanted to give the home team an extra 3 points for referee intervention.With the 7 point teaser, you are in effect giving the home team a 10 point cushion. Washington, Utah, and Dallas are the home teams today, so those are the teams that I recommend on such a teaser.

                                                Isiah121,

                                                Correct! Portland is playing with revenge, and they have lost 5 straight games ats as an over .500 team, and they are a big minority among bettors. Any way you look at it, Portland is looking like the side play in that game the more that I think of it.

                                                Bookbuster

                                                Primetime games always seem to go over the total. The Saints on their end pass the ball well and the Bears have been having trouble with coverage despite the heat they put on quarterbacks. Their pass defense numbers are skewed somewhat because teams have given up the idea of running consistently against them and have opted for the pass instead as they are the number 1 team in the NFL that teams pass against, at 38.8 pass attempts against their defense. So there is plenty of respect for their ability to stop the run and out of fear, teams have slung the pigskin all over the field. They are 6th in the NFL at stopping the run, so it's no big surprise. I have this game pegged for 3 turnovers, so that is 14.5 points right there. Because of the inclement weather, I think this game won't even be close. I see a final score of Chicago 33-Saints-17.

                                                walbjj,

                                                From what I see, the over/under in the Washington/Boston game is 197. The teams are 4-1 for the over in their last 5 games, with an average over/under line of 199, and average actual game scores of 213, the over looks like a good call for you on this game. The linemaker is spot on with his call too, and is getting exactly what he wants, as he has money on both sides of the fence, 52% for the over, and 48% for the under on the consensus.

                                                joanapoker,

                                                I am a dime bettor; a professional wagerer. On PC Plays I have been known to put up as much as 5, although I put up 8 on New Jersey last year when they played the Warriors in Oakland and cashed the ticket. On halves, I put up $500.00 on 1st halves and between $250 and $100 on second halves on average, $500.00 on a second half where the home team is over .500 and is behind by more than 16 points and it is a nationally televised game. On baseball prop bets I start off with $100.00 wagers and then shift to $200.00 and then $300.00 at set stages in the season. On football, I usually will put up $500.00 to $750.00 on average.

                                                I'm a basketball guy. I love basketball wagering more than any other type of wager, although I am better at baseball prop betting because it involves absolutely NO HOMEWORK.

                                                I am only good at setting lines on basketball, so I don't think that a sportsbook would be interested in my services. I have no idea how baseball lines are set, somewhat know about football lines. So no one has ever approached me about being a linemaker, lol! But hey there's a recession going on. Everyone has their price. All that I know is that as long as I can keep wagering I'm fine. I haven't worked for anyone since 1994, with real estate and the books money paying for everything I own. The hardwood is my soil. The CK Mafia are my roots
                                                Comment
                                                • cocknocker
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 11-06-08
                                                  • 8001

                                                  #25
                                                  Sloanie,

                                                  Get it now
                                                  Comment
                                                  • africanroller
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-30-08
                                                    • 936

                                                    #26
                                                    Man CK you want to go against the gang green tonight. You cant tell a Bostonian that
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sloanie29
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-03-08
                                                      • 111

                                                      #27
                                                      CK,

                                                      thanks again for all your advice. much appreciated!

                                                      here are my plays for today:

                                                      POR/UTAH over 194

                                                      MAVS/CATS under 191.5

                                                      small 3 team tease with:

                                                      WASH +17.5
                                                      MAVS -5.5
                                                      PORT +10

                                                      CK, i know your "home team" logic with teasers and i agree...but in this case, i just dont see POR losing by more than 9

                                                      thoughts on my plays?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cnleaf
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-08-08
                                                        • 346

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by africanroller
                                                        Man CK you want to get against the gang green tonight. You cant tell a Bostonian
                                                        But WAS is a giant killer. They can play tough with anyone at home, just like killing DET the other nights and LAL as well.
                                                        Go with the momentum and grab the $$$. I am on this one with you CK. WIZZZZZ
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cnleaf
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-08-08
                                                          • 346

                                                          #29
                                                          Anyone knows whether Boozer is playing tonite???
                                                          Comment
                                                          • africanroller
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 936

                                                            #30
                                                            CN, That was a joke and being a a Celtics fan I will never bet against the Celtics. I just dont play the game if I dont like the spread in their favor.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tdotcotez
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 12-11-08
                                                              • 135

                                                              #31
                                                              good to see all the old peeps from covers

                                                              immm back in bidness guys i moved down to costa rica a month ago and theres some cash bookies and casino sportsbooks down here...

                                                              tryin not to blow too much money but I won like 50 units 2 weeks ago and I'm tryin to keep it rollin.

                                                              CockKnocker, glad to see your posting freely and theres no flamers on here.

                                                              I gotta say, I bought 2 points goin the other way against Wash even though they have a history of playing very well against boston... got em down to 8 before the spread went up anymore.

                                                              I'm with you on the bears, they should be good to roll.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sb76854
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 12-05-08
                                                                • 6

                                                                #32
                                                                Nice call on the Spurs last night Cocknocker!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • africanroller
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-30-08
                                                                  • 936

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Pronk, What do you think about Troy tonight against MTSU. 13 points seems to be a lot to give that team when you know those guys can shoot.

                                                                  I like Nova against St Joes today also. Nova is 7-2 against the spread and has blown them out in their last 2 meetings. The only problem is the ML is kinda low on St Joes side. Both teams have great defense so the under seems like a good play also at 130.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • leopoldim86
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 11-14-08
                                                                    • 29

                                                                    #34
                                                                    CK,
                                                                    When buying points is it better to risk the same amount as every otha wager or try to win the same amount and risk more?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cnleaf
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-08-08
                                                                      • 346

                                                                      #35
                                                                      CK, as u expected, the DAL/CHAR game is taking off the board now.
                                                                      Comment
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