Leans for Tuesday 12/9/08

[cocknocker]

In Tuesday's hardwood action we have a few interesting games. I will start with the payback. Revenge is best served cold, and what we have here is a team coming into town bent on getting a win. As I have pointed out, the Orlano magic are one of the NBA's best covering road teams. Earlier this year, Portland beat the Magic in Orlando by 7. Obviously however, according to the numbers, the Magic have Portland's number picking up ats wins in 6 out of the last 8 contests. The Magic have actually been favored in Portland the last two times they arrived. But with the Magic being an underdog in this one, I have to roll with the points. Orlando is 3-1 ats in their last 4 back end of back to back games, so they don't need any rest.

Orlando+6.5 (buying a point to get over the key number)

The Rockets underacheived against the Grizzlies last night,but it won't happen tonight as they face off against the Hawks, a team that they are 5-2 ats against over the last 7 games that they have played. The Hawks are underperforming this year terribly due in part to their awful bench play. I'll take my chances with the Rockets to cover the number, which I feel will go down by the morning because of their loss to the Grizzlies on Monday. The Rockets have a great bench, and they have the carry over effect working in their favor for this game. Atlanta has not covered in Houston since 2004. Have to ride that trend until the wheels fall off.

Houston-5.5 (but it will go down, I am thinking to 4.5. If so i will take the Rockets at -3.5)

When the sun comes up the line for the Spurs/Mavs will be up. The Spurs are turning on the heat now, and teams better beware. Dallas is playing well too, so this will be a good game to watch. Dallas beat them by 17 points the last time that they played, so already there is revenge in the mix here. These teams have alternated ats wins/losses over the last 5 games that they have played. I estimate the line to be Dallas-2.5. Any points given to the Spurs in this game are too many.

San Antonio+2.5 (projected)

I know that I am going to catch flak from BigMoney about this one, but I am taking the Suns to clean house with the Bucks simply because the line is entirely too low. I would have taken this game at -9.5, so in my opinion, the 7.5 line is a gift. The Suns are 5-0 straight up and 2-3 ats against the Bucks at home, but a look inside the numbers show that they have beaten the Bucks by 11.2 on average, but the spreads have averaged 10.5, which explains why they haven't been covering with more regularity. The Suns are due for a good win, and after winning a nail biter against the Jazz, they are poised to get the job done in game number 2 of their homestand. The Bucks for their part are 1-3 straight up in the last 4 back ends of back to back situations, losing by an average of 9.5. Just what Phoenix needs in this time of need for a great showing in front of the disgruntled home crowd. The Suns have lost 5 straight games against the spread. That streak will end Tuesday night.

Phoenix-5.5 (buying a point to get under the key number)

[cocknocker]

I just played the Magic at +6.5 right now to get it out of the way. i don't need to spend the day watching the line. I doubt that Portland will beat them by 8 points.

[MAKAVELI 96]

did you watch the orlando game today? i was on orlando -4 but they played like complete crap after they jumped to that 15 pt lead vs the clipppers ... the only reason they won and covered is because the clippers find new & innovative ways to lose games (2 pts in the first 6 mins of the 4th, with their play by play guys saying shit like "clippers have this game locked", "are you worried yet?" ... any half way decent team would have blown out orlando today ... back 2 back can't help them ... i'm staying away from this game but hopefully it hits for you ...

[cocknocker]

MAKAVELI 96,

It's cool, the magic play that way in reverse. Usually, they start off fast and fade late. But with this being a west coast trip, i have to ride them in their first two games. i think that tonight they got caught peeking ahead at the game against the Blazers, a team that they owe a black eye to. The Blazers will get their full attention. Van Gundy kept the minutes down for some of his players against the Clips, so the lead was bound to evaporate. The starters will see more minutes Tuesday. They are off on Wednesday and Thursday before taking on Phoenix on Friday. I may play that one, as Phoenix has not lost to them at home since forever, an dit will be Orlando's 3rd road game, but I don't have any idea of what the spread will be at this time.

[WestsidePete]

That Friday night game is a good selection....the Magic had to play hard tonite...and tomorrow will be a tough one...Friday taking the Suns is excellent given the factors involved

[NBA Hero]

wont howard be tired after playing some 40 mins against the clips?

will artest play this time? they lack size at the guard area. I lost bad on that pick. the memphis toyed with their guards. they had a field day with their shots.

i like phoenix also. whats the status of redd and jefferson? how come they have played sparringly on their game against lakers. will shaq play? this is a back to back games.

detroit seems an easy pick?

appreciate your advice
will the cavs cover the spread?

[isiah121]

Excellent work yesterday CK bro. What do you think of Toronto +12.5?

I believe San Antonio should cover the spread. If Duncan plays power forward, then he should have the job done against Dirk. With someone Dirk's height guarding him, he won't score much. Without Dirk's points, Dallas would struggle.

[Hunter07]

Great work as usual ck. Loving the write-ups. I'm liking Orlando, who did the job for me today, Spurs and I think I'll keep riding Cleveland while they're hot! BOL.

[showtime2000]

Awesome day yesterday CK! Caash those tickets!!!!!!!!!

[zackattack]

ok went 3-1 yesterday and wish i knew that artest was out and i would have pulled that play down.they can cover without mcgrady but not both. i am using SOS and scoring and def efficiency to come up with plays.......doing work now and will have plays up soon. thx to ck for another good night.

[killersweet]

Excellent calls on yesterday’s games CK.
As for people thinking to pick Toronto to cover the spread tonight, just beware. Although Toronto has played well on Sunday, they usually let Lebron have his way with them. And Cavs have been winning by large margins. Also Toronto might mail this one early and look forward to tomorrow’s clash with Indiana. TJ Ford will be looking to rub it in tomorrow. So just be careful with the Cavs-Raps game tonight. I was leaning towards picking the raptors to cover the spread, but they have burnt me enough times this season even with large spread underdogs!

[Devon]

With the Magic/Blazers game- it's not too much of a problem that the Blazers are undefeated at home so far this season with close-ish games to Houston and the Kings?

[zackattack]

ok i have done the work and sad to say i am on some different sides today then ck
det/wash, wash has lost 4 straight....wash playing better of late plus have played tougher schedule year to date and last 10 then detroit has. both teams have same scoring eff, and detroit has 5 point better def eff. when you add it all up i will take the home team here getting 5.......play wash +5

atl/hou......there sos is virtually the same for the season as well as last 10...they are both 6-4 last 10......there records for the season are atl 12-7 hou 11-8....atl scor eff is 3 pts better and hou def eff is 4 points better.....when you add it all up this game looks like rockets should be -3........so i'll take the extra 2 points and i will bet it even harder if artest is out again.................play atlanta +5

mil/phx......SOS favors mil .557 to .518 season and .588 to .540 last 10 both teams are 4-6 last 10......off eff favors phx by 7 def eff favors bucks by 4.....certainly seems like bucks are playing better then phx last 10 verses better teams.....add it all up and suns should be favored by 4.......so the play is bucks +7

port/orl...orlando has had quite possibly the easiest schedule so far...they have played teams with a SOS for the season of .400 and .398 last 10. portland has played teams with a SOS for the season of .526 and .500 last 10. both team are 8-2 last 10.....orlando has won 3 straight......playing back to back ........portland last played sun afternoon so they are pretty well rested. off eff favors port and def eff favors orl.......but to me the SOS is huge for portland so i gotta lay the points here. por-5.5

tor/cle...i'll keep it short and sweet based on the factors above for both teams i have the line should be cle -9 i am getting 11.5 ......cleveland is also red hot....my breakdown does give me 2.5 more points and i think i'll buy the hook and take 12
play toronto + 11.5 but buy the hook or even the point. good luck to all and i hope this info is of some help.

a couple of games aren't up yet but i will do math and post later when i get lines

[Ant2nv]

Portland-5.5
Detroit -5
Clevland-11.5
Atlanta +6..i see Atlanta winning this game
New York + 7.5
Milwaukee+7

[cocknocker]

pronk,

I was told once a long time ago that when a college basketball game is not assigned a moneyline, then play the favorite.

We have such a case with Wisconsin-19.5 today. I know that they usually blow out non conference foes at home, so I am thinking that i would like to play it. As far as Texas being favored in Villanova's backyard (Madison Square Garden) I give the lean to Villanova on that one. Texas is not playingwith discipline this year as in years past.

[cocknocker]

I read in the local newspaper that Ron Artest more than likely would be held out of tonight's game against the Hawks, and that that would give him 6 days off in between games to get his ankle back in shape. The Rockets can withstand a loss of McGrady because they are used to him being in and out of the lineup. Artest is a new player on the team and is relied upon to knock down shots in McGrady's absence. Unless I can get them down to -2, which means that the line falls to -3, then I see this as a no play for me, because the Hawks are inept in Houston, and there may be a jinx of some kind going on there. And since i actually think that the Rockets was the least strongest of my picks, I have something in mind that i will exchange that pick with.

I have alreaady played Orlando+6.5, and I am most confident in that pick. So much that I like the 1st half as well if the linemaker gives me 3 points. The average score at the break when these teams play is Orlando 50.2, Portland 47.6. I am swapping my Houston pick for this one, and shortening my bet.

Phoenix against the Bucks, however, I am still playing if it comes back onto the board at anything under 10. It's kind of hard to lose that many games ats in a row, and it is obvious by the size of the line that the linemaker is getting burned by Phoenix faders and has made an adjustment. The spreads are usually 10.5 at home when they face Milwaukee, but it stood at 7 all night, and now it is off the board altogether (7:21am pst) for the man to do some more tinkering with it.

The line for Dallas/San Antonio is Dallas-1.5, and i am playing this one heaviest of the plays for today and taking the Spurs+2.5 by buying a point.

[BrandonLaz]

CK has finally broke out of the woodwork and gone on to include picking some College Basketball. Good luck with your plays I like the Wisconsin play there. I really like the play on Orlando to even though they shouldn't have covered last night they are still one of the best road teams on the season and until they prove otherwise keep riding that wave.

[africanroller]

I have Phoenix on the board at -6

[africanroller]

well when I locked in it had changed to -6.5.

Anyone think the Knicks are good value at +7.5. They have been playing a lot better as of late and have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5. That 1 no cover being to the Cavs which is expected as no one is covering against them.

[cocknocker]

It's official, there is more fat to be trimmed

Houston-NO PLAY

Phoenix-NO PLAY

I don't like the line movement with 80% on them and the line fell. At the same time, I don't like to wager on the Bucks because you never know what you're going to get night in and night out.

So my updated play list is:

Orlando+6.5
Orlando+3 1st half (projected)
San Antonio+2.5
Sacramento/Lakers over 214.5

Currently crunching numbers on the Lakers/Sacramento game. The Lakers are 2-4 ats in their last 6 games, so i have to be careful with the selection. So far I like their team total to go over instead of a side.

I have to go by what Sacramento is currently doing. The Kings are currently 28th in the NBA in scoring defense giving up 105.7 per game, and the Lakers are the NBA's highest scoring team with an average of 108.4. The Kings have been on a 8 game slide allowing 5 teams to score more than 115 points. Kobe loves to play there scoring 36.7 points per game in his last 6 games there to go along with 8 rebounds and 5.7 assists.

BTW, the line is Lakers-13.5, and the over/under is set at 214.5

[killersweet]

CK, What do u think about playing Lakers over their game total? They didn’t score much last game and I expect them to fire up tonight. And Sac hasn’t been scoring a lot lately.

[shoebox]

CK I just cant pull the trigger on the suns rights now there a team with no direction right now

[OuchaDirkFan41]

With Ron Artest and T-mac out, idk about them Rockets. When asked by Craig Saeger Terrell Owens put it best about Phx current troubles "chemistry"

[cocknocker]

I have made the following plays,so there's no going back

San Antonio-1.5
Sacramento/Lakers over 214 (bought off the hook-Styles likes this play also)
Orlando+6.5
Orlando+2.5 1st half

[cocknocker]

killersweet,

I like the over between the teams a little better, so that's why I laid off of the Lakers team total. I bought off the hook though, so my over/under line is 214. You have the best scoring team against one of the worst defenses in the league.

roller,

I laid off of the Suns because they had bad movement. They actually should be favored by more than that according to my re scoring model. I will catch the Bucks when they play their next game at Golden State tomorrow. As I stated, they are horrible in back end of back to back games, and the Warriors are going to catch fire this week. Ron Artest will be back in the lineup on Friday, and he will be out of sorts and mess up the minutes already being messed up by the players taking his minutes. This is Warriors week. I will take them every single game they play this week. That's how it's gonna work, homes.

[johnnymapalo]

I have made the following plays,so there's no going back

San Antonio-1.5
Sacramento/Lakers over 214 (bought off the hook-Styles likes this play also)
Orlando+6.5
Orlando+2.5 1st half

Those picks are sweet. I love em. I think San Antonio will humiliate Dallas and I feel Orlando's experience will allow them to hang with Portland..

[cocknocker]

The immediate swing in the Dallas/San Antonio game revealed to me that I shuld do some quick homework, and sure enough i found a wise guy play made at 10:50 or so last night at the Palms and the Hilton in Las Vegas, so i had to jump on board immediately, as it caused a 3 point swing, and I didn't want to take a line that had San Antonio having to win by more than a basket

[pronk]

Tuff loss last night.

CK, Idaho St. played Utah, Wash. St. and BYU last 3 games and somehow they managed to beat utes by 4. Badgers are a very good team but 19.5 is a lot to cover.

Playing Ball St. +12, Iowa -6 Davidson -1 (this game is being played at MSG) and Texas -2 (also at MSG).

GL.

[africanroller]

I laid a small play on Phoenix because like you I think they should win by 10. The game I am heavily debating is the Knicks, I just dont see them losing by 9 points. NY is 4 out of their last 5 ats and Chicago is 1 out of their last 5 ATS. I think the Knicks can win straight up and if they go down then it should be within 4. The only problem I see is most of the money is on them right now.

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK what do you think about the cavs over the raptors the cavs have been playing out of their minds as of late and the raptors cant do poop, the cavs have been outscoring opponents at home by a margin of 17.1 points and teh raptors have been getting outscored by 8 points away from home. Seems like 12 is a gift this line should be atleast 15

[africanroller]

Pronk, starting guard for Davidson Max Paulhaus is out and the line has gone from -1 to +2. Not quite sure why as he averages 3.7 points and 1 assist per game.

As for Texas the line is going down even thou all the money seems to be on them. I am definately leaning Nova in this one but I will continue to watch the line.

[nick2060]

cavs have been cooling down a bit to be honest, sorta like the titans when they faced the bears n jags, look like there slowly coming back down to earth. Eitherway i still laid the wood tonight cause even if there not playing on fire the raptors arent a great team and cavs can play defense, defense is the one thing that goes anywhere and doesn't really have an off-night, thats my take on the game

[zackattack]

ok i have done the work and sad to say i am on some different sides today then ck
det/wash, wash has lost 4 straight....wash playing better of late plus have played tougher schedule year to date and last 10 then detroit has. both teams have same scoring eff, and detroit has 5 point better def eff. when you add it all up i will take the home team here getting 5.......play wash +5

atl/hou......there sos is virtually the same for the season as well as last 10...they are both 6-4 last 10......there records for the season are atl 12-7 hou 11-8....atl scor eff is 3 pts better and hou def eff is 4 points better.....when you add it all up this game looks like rockets should be -3........so i'll take the extra 2 points and i will bet it even harder if artest is out again.................play atlanta +5

mil/phx......SOS favors mil .557 to .518 season and .588 to .540 last 10 both teams are 4-6 last 10......off eff favors phx by 7 def eff favors bucks by 4.....certainly seems like bucks are playing better then phx last 10 verses better teams.....add it all up and suns should be favored by 4.......so the play is bucks +7

port/orl...orlando has had quite possibly the easiest schedule so far...they have played teams with a SOS for the season of .400 and .398 last 10. portland has played teams with a SOS for the season of .526 and .500 last 10. both team are 8-2 last 10.....orlando has won 3 straight......playing back to back ........portland last played sun afternoon so they are pretty well rested. off eff favors port and def eff favors orl.......but to me the SOS is huge for portland so i gotta lay the points here. por-5.5

tor/cle...i'll keep it short and sweet based on the factors above for both teams i have the line should be cle -9 i am getting 11.5 ......cleveland is also red hot....my breakdown does give me 2.5 more points and i think i'll buy the hook and take 12
play toronto + 11.5 but buy the hook or even the point. good luck to all and i hope this info is of some help.

a couple of games aren't up yet but i will do math and post later when i get lines

adding jazz -4.5
adding lakers -11.5

[cocknocker]

Okay, pronk,

I will lay off of the Badgers, but the line movement says that Villy+2 the play against the Longhorns. Purdue's line is doing what it is supposed to do with all of that money riding on them, but like you I find it incredible that they are favored by such a large number after beating Ball State last yar by only 13 at home. With the home crowd behind them Ball State should be able to stay within the number. 12 points means that Purdue has to win by 14 inorder to cover, which is basically 20. I don't see that on foreign soil, let alone at home. They always let teams hang around.

That stated, I think I'll try Villy and Ball State. Thanks for your input. You are definitely helping us out big time with the college plays, and I think that I am getting the hang of it now, with betting prior to conference time. I should be able to help out a little more once conference play starts, especially in the Pac10.

[cocknocker]

zackattack,

I think that the Lakers is a better play at -10. That's a little more conceivable. I knew that because of the size of their spreads that they would cool off ats wise, and i was correct. If they lose interest in a team late in the game when things are seemingly out of reach, they tend to allow teams to backdoor them, which is easy when the line is Lakers-1000 points! may want to trim a few points off of it, or tease them with Utah, and make your line Lakers -7.5, and Utah-.5 (a half point). Now that looks good to me....