Leans for Tuesday 12/2/08

[cocknocker]

BigMoney and I discussed the Bullets/Nets game and came up with the following. Washington is a great 1st half team even this season with the bad overall record. They are always ahead in the first half and then blow leads down the stretch. 3.5 points for the 1st half is too many. Washington and New Jersey will be tied going in at the break. They average identical scores against one another (45.3 Washington, 45.4 New Jersey). The second half spread will end up being New Jersey -5.5, which means that the linemakers don't believe that they will cover. I am gonna wait it out and see if I can catch them at +4 or see if the books' offering of their 1st half side goes to even money. If either of those two things occurs, i am going to take them in the 1st half for a small wager. Stylistic's birthday is Saturday, so I have to make some necklace money.

[cocknocker]

maddog, I just hit him (nightridah)on yahoo messenger. I haven't heard from him yet either. The last time I spoke with him he was on his way to Florida to jump on a ship headed for Jamaica

[wangichu]

liking SACto more and more... they're featuring another one of my "cave-in" spreads, where they drop sac as the favorite, not just because they owe a heavy dose of revenge to utah, not just because utah is a shadow of the same team on the road, not just because the kings man up at home for the big game, and not just because they took the jazz down twice by double digits at home last year, but because they're going to win tonight. Nevertheless, while the books opened with the kings as favorites, the public saw things differently and began pounding the jazz, generating a boatload of line movement and now all of the sudden, look who's favored... the jazz in all of their road futility, against a good home team chomping at the beat to kick the crap out of them... i'll take those points as insurance in the instance of a last second win by the jazz, especially after insurance was what saved me yesterday in GS. Honestly though, i may not have taken this without catching sacto as a dog, but here they are, so here i go

SAC +2

also i'm seeing the line movement i expected in san antonio... don't think there's too much more to say than

1) san antonio has parker and ginobili back with a few games under their belt, plus a now experienced bench including their first legit set of parker backups. They are back together, minutes have mixed and they are in full swing.

2) detroit beat san antonio twice last year and you can guarantee that the spurs haven't forgotten this

3) detroit is 6-6 since iverson signed up, a shadow of their juggernaut self from early parts of years past. I'm not saying they don't get it together this season, but at this point, the fusion of a selfish scorer like iverson into a team oriented defensive minded team is just a little much to be used to this early

the one thing i'm hesitating on is that i'd almost be just as happy playing detroit in the first half, but honestly, it could be a game like this that the spurs come out and dominate early, and with spread movement in favor of the spurs with almost perfectly balanced money, i'll just stick to the more logical play and fire on the spurs

[showtime2000]

Just to add on Wash @ Jersey,
Washington has been scoring more in their last 5 games, averaging 104 and 50 at the half, and giving up 106 and 53 at the half.

[nick2060]

im a little torn on Detroit and San Antonio:
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Pistons are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

With that said, im not sure any of the Pistons past trends can be applied to this team cause the post-billups pistons don't seem to be playing the same. Spurs back at full health are also real tempting

[vassman86]

I'm on the fence about the Raptors first half +3.
If Jermaine O'Neal stays out of foul trouble, and sees lots of minutes in the first half, his defensive presence will help Toronto keep it close.

I also like Sacramento +2 at home against the Jazz in this rubber match. Hoping to catch it slightly higher before the game starts.

[maddogmadden86]

i hear that CK so what are your official plays for the day and wang what are you playing as well brother?

[maddogmadden86]

taking lakers and lakers at half pacers will get blown out the gym doors

[maddogmadden86]

ck who do you think will be able to stop devin harris on the wizards im from ne jersey and have been watching a lot of their games he is on fire as of late and the wizards are plain bums u still feal confident in the play

[wangichu]

it makes me feel even better about playing SAC tonight after making a random cameo to covers and getting blasted by a bunch of cattle like cappers, playing the jazz with no rhyme or reason... my favorite was "Unless the NBA truly is fixed, I think Jazz is the play." this guy then went on to say he would "bet me $37.48 that the jazz win" ... anyways... here's the final card

PHI +3/ML
LAL -8 (smaller play)
SA -5
SAC +2

TOR +3 1st half
WAS +3.5 1st half (i wanted more, but the fact that it's only half of game spread shows that the books aren't worried about what NJ will do in the first half)

[wangichu]

taking lakers and lakers at half pacers will get blown out the gym doors

careful with that first half... even when they wind up losing and not covering, the pacers have been starting out strong this year... and with their shooters, it wouldn't be TOO flukish to see them give LA a toughie at half.

[shoebox]

Agreed wangichu,

Playing +4.5 1st half pacers
-8.5 gm LA

[maddogmadden86]

yea i agree just played the game for a light play the whole lakers playing early makes me think anything could happen

[showtime2000]

BigMoney and I discussed the Bullets/Nets game and came up with the following. Washington is a great 1st half team even this season with the bad overall record. They are always ahead in the first half and then blow leads down the stretch. 3.5 points for the 1st half is too many. Washington and New Jersey will be tied going in at the break. They average identical scores against one another (45.3 Washington, 45.4 New Jersey). The second half spread will end up being New Jersey -5.5, which means that the linemakers don't believe that they will cover. I am gonna wait it out and see if I can catch them at +4 or see if the books' offering of their 1st half side goes to even money. If either of those two things occurs, i am going to take them in the 1st half for a small wager. Stylistic's birthday is Saturday, so I have to make some necklace money.

Actually, the last 2 games at New Jersey, Washington led both at half time, 59-53, and 41-36, and the first meeting this year in washington was up 46-44... Nice find guys!

[maddogmadden86]

after thinking about it i love the wizards first half as well lets do this ish and cash that ticket!

[OuchaDirkFan41]

Hey fellas, unfortuneately i Live in Salt Lake City, Cali Native, but No matter how good the Jazz are the Kings have thier number every year in SAC, I saw the 7-1, Im too lazy to check but I would bet the last 15 times in Sac havent been pretty for the Jazz.

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK did stlyls ever decide on a play in the kings game?

[africanroller]

Wow did the Pacers fold in the last 2 minutes. Sorry guys

[cocknocker]

maddog on Kings game Utah team total over 103.5 only

[cocknocker]

Any points given to Washington in the 2nd hlaf of this game is too many. I'm going to leave it at that.

[The_Kid]

Wow did the Pacers fold in the last 2 minutes. Sorry guys

If you got +5, it was a push. Granger saved everyone with that last second jumper at the buzzer.

[BigMoneyMan]

Philly 2 units Clippers 1 unit. Sorry for being late and short but Ck probably filled you in on some things. I just got back in front of a computer. Hell i didn't even check the score from last night this mornning. I will look at the late game in awhile. GL

[cocknocker]

Blowout alert in 8:59 seconds

[cocknocker]

Lakers 2nd half-4

[The_Kid]

Blowout alert in 8:59 seconds

Are you waiting for the Lakers/Pacers 2H to begin?

[shoebox]

Love it ck im hittin the books hard lets cash it!!

[maddogmadden86]

thats esactly what i wanted you to say CK that was music to my ears, hit that lakers first half by the skin of my teeth lol but i will take it

[shoebox]

Pacers burned me game is going exactly as I predicted though second half is gonna be a massacre!!!

[vassman86]

Lakers 2H -4 is a good play. Pacers won't be able to keep pace with the Lakers in the second half. Also, in the previous two games played between these two teams in Indiana, Lakers had a 2, and 12 pt lead going into the half. Lakers went on to win these two games by 16 and 20 pts respectively.

[africanroller]

Played it also

[cocknocker]

Well, if Washington is up by anything at the half, and the nets are given a spread where they are supposed to win by anything over 1, I am hammering Washington 2nd half and the moneyline if it's over even money.

[cocknocker]

Washington 1st half is a done deal. I am waiting for the 2nd half numbers

[africanroller]

Nice call guys

[maddogmadden86]

wow i got nets -5 second half

[Devon]

whats your 2h play on wizards/nets game ck?