GoatMilk vs Vyomguy Handicapping Contest

[dsaewra]

I think you're misunderstanding. Vyom isn't claiming that there are no streaks, he accepts that they happen and just refuses to describe them as "hot" or "cold."

I happen to disagree though. I don't think it's rationalization to describe your current record as "hot" or "cold." But who cares, it's just semantics.

[chargers4222]

seriously...why doesnt goat milk kill himself? at least leave everyone else alone and just live in solitude as a hermit. i hate him so much. i will wager everything i have he has zero people in his personal life that care for him and like his personality. he is a cancer on the pancreas of humanity

[downsouth]

seriously...why doesnt goat milk kill himself? at least leave everyone else alone and just live in solitude as a hermit. i hate him so much. i will wager everything i have he has zero people in his personal life that care for him and like his personality. he is a cancer on the pancreas of humanity

Bit extreme based off an online forum dont ya think? Guy seems like half the other donkeys around here, not really sure Im hoping he kills himself.

[knowlove85]

this guy must've taken the lakers..

[vyomguy]

All the people who believe in streaks...I can assure you that they are 100% losers in real life...guaranteed that they will be down lifetime.

All the people who believe in streaks, please see this video and LEARN.

[dsaewra]

A streak describes a series of results. It doesn't really imply correlation between results asides from them happening consecutively.

[mitch51]

Thanks for the training. It is invaluable as a bettor.
Mitch

My lifetime record of all the picks is between 60%-62%....probably around 5000 picks over the course of 4 years (several sports).

I dont believe in the terms "hot" and "cold". Those are the terms which losing cappers use to justify their streaks.

Sports Betting is not like Blackjack or Poker where your fate is depended on turn of cards. So, "running hot" and "running cold" doesnt apply in sports.

If you believe in such things, then stop sports betting.

Regardless of who posts a pick, use your brain and analyze it.

[SlickRick1382]

Vyomguy:

Record: 24-11-1 (3-0 max plays)
Overall Units: +18.28

Prior: +17.33
Net Change: +0.95


Goat Milk:

Record: 2-6-1 (0-2 max plays)
Overall Units: -8.33

Prior: -5.33
Net Change: -3.00

[chargers4222]

it is not extreme, i know his type, he is nothing but a cancer to everybody he comes in contact with

[chargers4222]

been sayin it for years and you people continue to respond to him and feed into his shit. "breaking down matchups". shut the penetrate up

[SlickRick1382]

When you handicap sometimes you will go on big losing streaks and sometimes be on the wrong side of the last second shot a few times in a row, that's what happens, that fact you think this isn't what happens means I can't take anything you say seriously.

Or you can argue that it's not running hot or cold but just mathematical probabilities, etc....

If I'm not mistaken, vyomguy is disputing the use of the words and rather describes the so called streaks as something else. You don't run hot or cold on picks. I'm not going to magically nail all my picks because I'm running hot. Being on the wrong side of a couple of last second shots has nothing to do with running cold either. Every pick is independent of everything else you did. Vyomguy is just using a mathematical reasoning for why things happen.

[blanco]

Sports Betting is not like Blackjack or Poker where your fate is depended on turn of cards. So, "running hot" and "running cold" doesnt apply in sports.

You clearly seem like a smart guy and a great capper but this simply isn't true man. If your lifetime win rate is 60% and you have won at 69% over your last 30 picks or whatever, that is clearly "running hot". You are experiencing positive variance. Like you are trying to explain to people with the video, it doesn't mean you are "due" for a cold streak because every day you are starting over at 0.

Every time you make a pick, the results USUALLY don't matter whether or not it was the right pick or wrong pick. Obviously you can tell from the first possession sometimes if you are on the right side or wrong side based on who shows up and who didn't, but this is something you can only predict with a certain accuracy and sometimes you will be wrong even as the best capper in the world. All you can do is make the best pick given all the information available and the rest (for the most part) is variance. There is plenty of variance and variables involved in sports. All you can do is pick the side that should cover more often than not (in your case 60%).

Of course it is like poker man. You picking games is like getting your Ace-King all in against Jack-Ten pre-flop in texas hold-em over and over and over. Over 30 hands, you may win 69% of the all-ins, but over 5000 hands you will win damn near close to 60%. If you do this 100 times, and win 69% over your first 30 hands, your expected wins is obviously not 60 for the 100 hands, but .69*30 +.6*70.

[blanco]

Or you can argue that it's not running hot or cold but just mathematical probabilities, etc....

Mathematical probabilities is the reason the terms "running hot" and "running cold" exist. Otherwise it would just be "right answer" and "wrong answer". When mathematical probabilities are involved, so is variance, and with variance comes hot and cold streaks.

[Joe Sharp]

Vyomguy:

Record: 24-11-1 (3-0 max plays)
Overall Units: +18.28

Prior: +17.33
Net Change: +0.95

Nice, Vyomguy! Hope you carry through and make all of your plays... regardless of how far ahead you are. Good luck, moving forward.

[PAULYPOKER]

Vyom is the only "SHARP" player who actually contributes and is sharing with this forum,

do not argue with him!!

those who argue will go on the troll list..........................

[mitch51]

Vyom is the only "SHARP" player who actually contributes and is sharing with this forum,

do not argue with him!!

those who argue will go on the troll list..........................

[knowlove85]

You clearly seem like a smart guy and a great capper but this simply isn't true man. If your lifetime win rate is 60% and you have won at 69% over your last 30 picks or whatever, that is clearly "running hot". You are experiencing positive variance. Like you are trying to explain to people with the video, it doesn't mean you are "due" for a cold streak because every day you are starting over at 0.

Every time you make a pick, the results USUALLY don't matter whether or not it was the right pick or wrong pick. Obviously you can tell from the first possession sometimes if you are on the right side or wrong side based on who shows up and who didn't, but this is something you can only predict with a certain accuracy and sometimes you will be wrong even as the best capper in the world. All you can do is make the best pick given all the information available and the rest (for the most part) is variance. There is plenty of variance and variables involved in sports. All you can do is pick the side that should cover more often than not (in your case 60%).

Of course it is like poker man. You picking games is like getting your Ace-King all in against Jack-Ten pre-flop in texas hold-em over and over and over. Over 30 hands, you may win 69% of the all-ins, but over 5000 hands you will win damn near close to 60%. If you do this 100 times, and win 69% over your first 30 hands, your expected wins is obviously not 60 for the 100 hands, but .69*30 +.6*70.

Fantastic analogy with the poker reference. Certainly there are variables outside a capper's control when they run their own analysis and make a determination on a team, i.e. injuries, "hot or cold" performance streaks, (which any professional athlete will corroborate as being tangible dynamics), ejections, etc. When those uncontrollable variables impact your bets in a positive or negative way to a degree higher or lower than the average, it could be interpreted as "running hot or cold"

In addition, just like players performances can run hot or cold, this effect can certainly manifest positively or negatively in cappers who when running hot either build off the trends that got them hot, or when running cold, allow the associated negativity to dilute their thought process. This is probably what Vyom is referring to by inferring that success in business/life/gambling can be made by analyzing processes with complete objectivity.

The terms "hot streak" and "cold streak" are rather subjective, yet should simply define outlier results.

[born2gamble]

You did a good job their trying to sound smart....i am convinced!

[onacloud]

wrong thread

[Goat Milk]

Lakers +13.5 -107 3 units

76ers +5 -105

Dallas +10.5 -110

[wguan2]

all 3 max plays on the Lakers... wow.

[knowlove85]

You did a good job their trying to sound smart....i am convinced!

Did I do a good job there*trying to sound smart? How do you rate?

[Goat Milk]

Knicks +5 -106

Miami -3.5 -105

[1sob]

Lakers +13.5 -107 3 units

76ers +5 -105

Dallas +10.5 -110

nice job with the fakers
philly sucked
hope dallas wins it for u

[SlickRick1382]

Vyomguy:

Record: 24-11-1 (3-0 max plays)
Overall Units: +18.28

Prior: +17.33
Net Change: +0.95


Goat Milk:

Record: 4-7-1 (1-2 max plays)
Overall Units: -5.38

Prior: -8.33
Net Change:+2.95

[reppin_the_847]

Vyomguy's track record around here is pretty decent. Lakerboy used to appear good for a while (at one time), but he would achieve this appearance by betting excessive units on certain games, therefore clouding his actual win percentage. As far as Goatmilk, lol....

[tatddy]

Surprised Vyom is bothering with this thread. Anyone with any type of read/instinct knows that he's legit and Goat is grasping at straws.

Keep winning Vy....

[shari91]

Surprised Vyom is bothering with this thread. Anyone with any type of read/instinct knows that he's legit and Goat is grasping at straws.

Keep winning Vy....

I for one at least am happy they're doing this. The two guys involved aren't trash talking each other and even though I'm not betting any of these plays I like seeing the chat that comes along with it. vyom's a math guy, goatie's a capper. No matter how well someone knows a game ie Charles Barkley for example, it doesn't mean crap if you don't just follow the math. But pure math's not fun or even understandable for most of us so we drift back into capping no matter how disciplined we try to be. I still do it with tennis once in awhile and I learn my lesson almost every bloody time. But I still have more fun when I just cap and cheer. I think this thread will be a good teaching tool or reminder for those of us who need it. Solely relying on line movements, knowing what a player ate for dinner, how they play in a certain city after 4.7 hours sleep, etc won't help you beat the brainiacs who make the lines. It may in the short term but over the long haul you'll get hooped. GL to you both vyom and goatie!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Nice start for vyomguy

[Goat Milk]

Friday

Bobcats +8 -105

[Ralphie1412]

Did shari just call Goat a capper?

[No coincidences]

vyom's a math guy, goatie's a capper.

What?!?!?

[reppin_the_847]

I will say that I like that Goatmilk appreciates dope hip hop by having a Nas avatar. Sure beats having symbols of the ancient Nazi regime constantly shoved down our throats....cough, cough, LB, cough....

[shari91]

Did shari just call Goat a capper?

He is a capper. Everyone on this forum is that doesn't have a model. They may be good or bad but what else is it that you think they're doing? He may not handicap games like the people you follow (since I never see you post plays) or try to chase lakerboy's line movement theory which even he admits is useless now (like NoCoin) but he looks at a game, tries to figure out the side with the advantage and makes a play. Are you unfamiliar with the term handicapper?

[ghislaine]

Anything tonight Vyom ? You are solid picks and cash in the bank