2 and 7 are key numbers in picking sides FYI
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Here's further information. You could argue anything above 7 is a blowout that comes back later on. Imo, 5,6,7 is when team's stop fouling so the more numbers you can cover there, the better. However, I think the most important number to cover is 2 when you're picking teams that are almost even.
<style> <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";** @page {margin:.75in .7in .75in .7in; mso-header-margin:.3in; mso-footer-margin:.3in;** td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore
adding; color:black; font-size:11.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;** .xl63 {mso-number-format:Percent;** --> </style> 5 6.58% 7 6.52% 6 6.33% 8 6.20% 2 5.91% Comment -
JORDAN XIX's150544724-1 12/5/12 12:47pm $107.25 $19.50 Pending 12/5/12 9:00pm College Basketball 554 Oklahoma State -550* <small>vs</small> South Florida 150544161-1 12/5/12 12:37pm $55.00 $50.00 Pending 12/5/12 7:00pm College Basketball 527 Florida -6½ -110* <small>vs</small> Florida State 150544161-2 12/5/12 12:37pm $27.50 $25.00 Pending 12/5/12 8:30pm College Basketball 551 Boise State -6 -110* <small>vs</small> Utah U 150544049-1 12/5/12 12:35pm $27.50 $25.00 Pending 12/5/12 7:05pm NBA Basketball 503 New York Knicks -7½ -110* <small>vs</small> Charlotte Bobcats 150544049-2 12/5/12 12:35pm $27.50 $25.00 Pending 12/5/12 8:05pm NBA Basketball 507 Denver Nuggets +2 -110* <small>vs</small> Atlanta Hawks 150544049-3 12/5/12 12:35pm $27.50 $25.00 Pending 12/5/12 7:35pm NBA Basketball 509 Golden State Warriors +1 -110* <small>vs</small> Detroit Pistons 150544049-4 12/5/12 12:35pm $27.50 $25.00 Pending 12/5/12 10:35pm NBA Basketball 521 Dallas Mavericks +8½ -110* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers
Hey guys, had a nice rest up. Had a busy few weeks and wasn't able to juggle things to well. Learn and adapt! Good motto to encompass guys to improve in every and any aspect of your life.
Looking at tomorrow boys, we're gunna make a small half unit/unit play to come back.
12/5 - Milwaukee +9.5 (1x)
Looked at this game guys and thought, tough out for the Spurs here. I know there at home and are quite tough there, but they're hurt bad and don't have much depth at the moment. Something the bucks do have, at my book bet365 this was offered at +8.5 for 1.90 - I wanted to buy the hook to bring it to +9, but it wasn't available but +9.5 was for the exact price - so I took it and locked it in quickly. Not often you get a whole point for just .07. Playing this for half a unit guys.
YTD 29W-5P-20L (59.1%) +17.4
Nice to be back, let's get em!
enjoy!Comment -
So far:
Nuggets + 1
Twizzle (5x)
Sando (+1.5 1.5x)
Wguan (+2 1x)
Wizcodlifa (+2 27$)
Spurs -8.5
Sando (2x)
Pacers -4
Sando (1.5x)
Pistons +1
Sando (1x)
Gs+1
Wizcodlifa (27$)
Lakers-4.5
A4K (1x)
Magic +8
Ltprofits
Bucks +9.5
Simon2g
Clippers - 8
Sando (1x)
Gs@detroit o191
Sando (1x)
Port@indi u187
Sando (1x)
Celtics3388 (u185.5 1x)
Nyk
Wizcodlifa (27$)
San/mil o197.5
Wguan2 (2x)Comment -
Atlanta baby.Comment -
Can't understand all the love for the Nuggets to be honest. Beside their trend to win 4 games after losing three, I can't see any reason to back bad road team as Denver with terrible match ups against the Hawks that are solid at home.
Best case scenario 50 - 50 game - so to have such a wide consensus?
Either me or everyone else misses something.
It's probably me, but hope that it's not the case
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If it is a 50-50 game and you're covering 2 points of value, wouldn't you bet that everytime? Also, I don't understand how this game could possibly present bad match ups for Denver. Atlanta is among the worst rebounding team in the league. Kenneth Faried by himself could outrebound Atlanta. Moreover, Atlanta sends out one of the smallest starting lineups on the court each night. Sure Denver has been bad on the road but like the post above, they've also been on the road almost every game lol. It's not easy to start the season with 75% of games on the road. It takes time. I do think this game will be close and Atlanta will probably have a good lead for a decent bit of the game but when it comes down to it, offensive rebounds and put backs will kill Atlanta every time.Can't understand all the love for the Nuggets to be honest. Beside their trend to win 4 games after losing three, I can't see any reason to back bad road team as Denver with terrible match ups against the Hawks that are solid at home.
Best case scenario 50 - 50 game - so to have such a wide consensus?
Either me or everyone else misses something.
It's probably me, but hope that it's not the caseComment -
Update:
Pacers -4
Sando (1.5x)
Blazers +4
T-wizzle (3x)
Nyk
Wizcodlifa (27$)
Nuggets + 1
Twizzle (5x)
Sando (+1.5 1.5x)
Wguan (+2 1x)
Wizcodlifa (+2 27$)
Pistons +1
Sando (1x)
Gs+1
Wizcodlifa (27$)
Lakers-4.5
A4K (1x)
Goatmilk
Spurs -8.5
Sando (2x)
Bucks +9.5
Simon2g
Jazz-8
T-wizzle (3x)
Magic +8
Ltprofits
Raptors+2.5
Twizzle (3x)
T-wizzle (1x ML)
Clippers - 8
Sando (1x)
Gs@detroit o191
Sando (1x)
Port@indi u187
Sando (1x)
Celtics3388 (u185.5 1x)
San/mil o197.5
Wguan2 (2x)
La/noh u195.5
Ltprofits
Tor/sac u197
LtprofitsLast edited by vancityswag; 12-05-12, 04:42 PM.Comment -
i'm not sure i understand...can you explain a bit more please? im new to this. thanksHere's further information. You could argue anything above 7 is a blowout that comes back later on. Imo, 5,6,7 is when team's stop fouling so the more numbers you can cover there, the better. However, I think the most important number to cover is 2 when you're picking teams that are almost even.
<style> <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";** @page {margin:.75in .7in .75in .7in; mso-header-margin:.3in; mso-footer-margin:.3in;** td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignoreadding; color:black; font-size:11.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;** .xl63 {mso-number-format:Percent;** --> </style> 5 6.58% 7 6.52% 6 6.33% 8 6.20% 2 5.91% Comment -
I went 3x on Raptors +2.5. 1x on Raptors ML +125.Comment -
denver
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Basically the idea of key numbers is more important in football. Obviously getting spreads that cover 3 and 7 is important. There's no point in betting 3.5 when you can wait a bit to see if it'll move to 3. Same goes for 7. If you're betting the dog, getting 7.5 is HUGE. Same with other numbers like 4 and 10 in football.
In basketball, it's a little more complicated so you have to rely more on statistics. I've shown you a sample of I think it's 1400 games and how often it has landed on those numbers. Obviously, 5,6,7,8 is important because they're when teams usually stop fouling or there just isn't enough time left. Now, I stated that I would argue that 8 is typically off of backdoor covers. Not often do I see games end at 8 after a close game+fouling.
For 5,6,7 it's simple, the more numbers you can cover, the better so keep that in mind when you see a 5.5 and which way the line is leaning.
The most important number though in my opinion is 2. Any game that should be a close game, getting the number 2 is huge. If you look at the Denver game, that 2 point spread could've easily came into play. That's just my opinion though. You can interpret the statistics how you want.Comment -
2-0 posting. Get with the program boys.Comment -
this is in no way an accurate record of the people in this list. they have many quarter plays and live plays that i have not accounted for. this is solely for the purpose of seeing how the picks posted on this board did tonight.
once again the forum was huge on a game and it failed to hit (denver). seems like it happens quite often...whats on the menu tommorow?Comment -
Might start the discussion early i like both home teams tomorrow, hate the Heat they have burned me but I think this is a solid spot for them.Comment -
Im staying far far away from picking a side in that heat knicks game, might play the over at 202 now , might have to do alittle more research , im definatley on the suns tmrw though, dallas could be one of the worst teams in the league right now , so old and so slow and when the shots are not falling they are pretty much screwed , seen the suns opened at -1 , now its up to -3 after the stinker they put up tonightComment -
Looks like ill be playing First Half over whatever the number in NYK/MIA , numbers are pretty encouraging for the number to go over
Knicks have one of the top scoring offences on the road in the first half and miami has one of the worst home defences in the first half... would play the over on the total of the game but knicks are on a back to back and fatigue could set it so i feel safer playing the first half total.Comment -
miami scares me. hearing alot of talk about the over so far. what do you think?Comment -
IMHO, if Melo plays, Heat are a must bet. The revenge from Knicks season opener, when they trashed Miami still fresh in Heat players minds I believe and they will execute this revenge tonight.
If Melo is out, than the win won't mean much and in that case, I will stay away from the bet.
P.S. As for the Suns, I have a feeling that Dallas got squashed last night, because they decided to throw away the game against the Clippers, so that they will focus on tonight's game. Suns really don't impress me to be honest...Last edited by dmitean; 12-06-12, 11:43 AM.Comment -
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celtics , have you watched a dallas game ?? or a suns home game for that matter?Comment -
killer, if your looking too much into last years trends id throw those out the window that was an almost entirely different team, the home road splits are too drastic not to be taking the suns in this spotComment -
There's no angle in this Suns game. The 3 points give to them is pure out of b2b dallas and home game for Suns. These teams are even. Both teams are struggling. Most importantly, both teams don't even know what winning feels like anymore. It's a pure even game. What's even worse is that to be honest, talent wise, Dallas probably has the better team. That's arguable but they certainly have the more experienced team. You can call them old or whatever but they know much more about winning in these types of situations than the Suns do. Who's the real leader on the Suns team? Who on the Suns team has been a part of a winning team? This is the true definition of a coin flip with no value on the spread. But I guess if I were to take the coin flip, I'd take a home team. In this game however, I'd probably lean Dallas.
PS. the book's don't think much of the Suns either if they're giving Dallas only 3 points on b2b road games and getting blown out by 20.Comment -
fair analysis wguan , just looking back at dallas' games on the road, they have been blow out by good teams and struggled against weaker teams and suns do play good ball at home, i wanted to pounce last night when suns opened at a pickemComment
