TRD, Wguan2, T-wizzle & others' thoughts & picks

[vancityswag]

Seems like the consensus of the board is to keep this thing going. I will also be compiling thoughts & picks from t-wizzle, lakerboy, laker_crazy, ms. Degan & other respectable sbr posters. Also thanks to everyone who contributed to yesterday's board (brainfreeze & others)

Unfortunately Goat Milk doesn't want to be a part of this board so go to his thread for his insight.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1982040-nba-season-thread-matchup-analysis.html

So far:

Thunder -3 (1.5x)
Lakers -1.5 (1.5x)

Square plays but i feel good about them. Leaning Suns as well.

I know what you guys are thinking with the Lakers, but they need to win road games. I think this is winnable.

BOL

*edit: o and of course sando!

[vancityswag]

12/4/12

Chicago/Indiana under 180 1x
LA Lakers -2 1x

This is a pure LTA play lol. Chicago and Indiana are tied for 2nd in def eff. They're in the bottom half of the league in off eff (19th, 29th). Both are in the bottom half of the league in pace (20th and 26th). I originally thought that Chicago would try to push the tempo a little bit without derrick rose. That's exactly what they did last year. From what I remember, they averaged more points without Rose than with. However, Thibs has stuck to his defensive mentality so I don't see how this game gets out of the 170s. If this was later in the year, this game would be set at 177 easily but the books know that things have been running a little on the high side of late. If this gets hit higher, I'll add to this play.

Lakers -2
I always like to back to the Lakers after coming off an embarrassing loss especially this season. The Lakers play much better against poor defensive teams and high paced teams. Although Houston traditionally gives the Lakers problems, this is a completely new line up for Houston. Houston has no bruisers in the paint so Gasol should fare fine. Even though the Lakers are struggling with the pick n roll like always, I don't see them having trouble against Lin. They will however get torched by Harden but it won't be enough. I don't trust the Houston bigs enough to believe that the Lakers can't trap Harden off the pick n roll and force him to pass out to shooters and rotate the defense. This is an interesting game for sure but I think this game is no different than the Lakers v Denver and the Lakers v Dallas. They have trouble against teams that play great team ball and team defense (Indiana and Orlando).

Wguan2 coming off a 5-1 night. Let's keep it rolling!

[vasilli07]

Kinda of like Grizzlies. Suns on their last road game and against 1 of the best defensive team. Gortat and Scola should have a tough time against Z-bo and Gasol. Tony Allen will be all over Dragic. Should be a double digit win for the Grizz.

[vancityswag]

Tough week. Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.

1-2 Today in the NBA -2.22 Units

NBA YTD 81-55-6 (+32.97 Units) 59.6%

(NBA ATS/ML 61-42-4 YTD) 59.2%

(NBA totals 20-13-2 YTD) 60.6%


All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 14-12-1 (+0.62 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0

*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

**All m/l picks are almost always dogs. I will hardly ever play a favorite at the m/l and if I do it is no worse than -115.


NBA

*Very interested in Philly/Minnesota game. Waiting for opening lines.


NBA Total of the day


OKC @ Brooklyn

Over 191.5 (-109 Sportingbet) 1.5x

Thanks sando!

[vancityswag]

1 NBA Play Tuesday


Suns / Grizzlies UNDER 194.5 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 43-43, -2.29

Who do you like ats?

[killersweet]

Nice thread dude. keep up the good work.

[BXbomber11]

great idea here man. nice to see the forums best coming together for the betterment of all! keep up the good work

[wguan2]

Lines are pretty tough today and the card isn't all that great. If you were thinking about a bigger play, I would advise doing it another day. Just my opinion.

[vancityswag]

Nice thread dude. keep up the good work.

great idea here man. nice to see the forums best coming together for the betterment of all! keep up the good work

Thanks!

[vancityswag]

Suns +10 -105 (4x); ML +518 (1x)

Timberwolves +3.5 -107 (3x)

Thanks t-wizzle

[Murray Rothbard]

Awesome thread bro. Great idea.

[vancityswag]

Suns +10.5 -105(25x)

Suns ml +550(3x)

Suns +6-111(5x) first hf

lakerboy is back with some picks! looks like theres love for the suns tonight!

[vancityswag]

105. 12/4 Heat -10 -105
Hoping Nene not 100%

106. 12/4 Suns/Grizzlies u194.5 -108 2u
Phoenix been cold on offense, going against defensive team

107. 12/4 Pacers/Bulls u180 -105 5u
2 top defenses, pounding this while it's in the 180s

108. 12/4 Thunder -3.5 -109
Take a shot before it moves to -4

Not sure of perfect grape's track record but he seems to agree with lt profit's suns/grizzlies under play and wguan's chi/indi under play. BOL!

[vancityswag]

Big bet tonight. Picture under video if you don't feel like watching. Cheers boys!!

Lakers Rockets UNDER 213.5 $550 to win $500
Heat 1st half -5.5 $220 to win $200
Parlay both $200 to win $520

is this the same iwym i've heard people talking about?

[vancityswag]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 19 - 12 - 2 ~ ~~61.29% win rate

Spread: 14 - 5 - 2
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$795.15

Bankroll: $5,795.15........ I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____

Play for 12/4/2012....

Suns +10.5 @ Grizzlies

The Suns have lost 3 in a row, one of which was a HUGE blowout loss to the lowly Pistons. Though I don't see the Suns winning this game, I do see them playing a competitive contest as they try to close out their road trip on a high note. 10.5 points are too many to pass up. After losing to the Knicks, Beasley brought up the fact that the Suns have a tendency to fall behind early and claw their way back into the game, only to come up short. I think the Suns come out motivated to end their losing streak and close their road trip on a high note. This game may be ripe for a backdoor cover.

suns it is

[vancityswag]

yeah I think Miami covers.

word

[vancityswag]

12/4

Heat/Wizards Under 194.5 (-108) x1
Thunder/Nets Under 194 (-105) x1
Pacers/Bulls Under 180 (-110) x1
Lakers -1.5 (-105) x1

pacer/bulls under

[vancityswag]

12/04/2012

NBA - $550 to win $523.81
OKC Thunder @ Brooklyn Nets +4

NBA - $450 to win $420.56
Under 180 Pacers/Bulls

NBA - $450 to win $420.56
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies -10

NBA - $400 to win $373.83
Miami Heat -9.5 @ Washington Wizards

NBA - $600 to win $576.92
Under 186.5 Timberwolves/76ers

pacers bulls under. is it odd that everyone is on it yet the line hasnt moved at all?

[vancityswag]

Adding:

Heat / Wizards UNDER 194.5 -110 (Heritage)


NBA Card Complete

thx

[CHAZ]

Like the idea..

Maybe give the title a date, and label it daily discussion or something like that (12/4 NBA daily discussion)

Would be nice if we could get one big thread going instead to discuss the games. We have 100 separate ones every day it seems talking about the same game.

[wguan2]

It's not moving because it's the lowest line on the board. Very rarely do you see the lowest line on the board steam under even though under is the correct pick. There's no point in going from 180 to 179, 178 because either way, the public will bet the over so it's not in the interest of the book. However, it's great for those playing the under. If this went up at all, I'd add multiple units to this play.

[vancityswag]

Adding:

Heat / Wizards UNDER 194.5 -110 (Heritage)


NBA Card Complete

thx

[vancityswag]

PLAY 59: MIAMI HEAT -10 -103 @ Washington Risk $103 to win $100 (Heritage)

Line is 11 with my local. I'm not doing a writeup for this game. Miami should win this game easily.

PLAY 60: D. WADE OVER 20.5 POINTS -120 Risk $60 to win $50

I don't normally play props but this one stood out to me. After Barkley disrespected Wade on national TV a few nights ago he came out the next game and dropped 34 or 36. No one on this wizards team can cover Wade. Look for him to take 20 shots tonight.

thx

[vancityswag]

Tough week. Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.

1-2 Today in the NBA -2.22 Units

NBA YTD 81-55-6 (+32.97 Units) 59.6%

(NBA ATS/ML 61-42-4 YTD) 59.2%

(NBA totals 20-13-2 YTD) 60.6%


All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 14-12-1 (+0.62 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0

*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

**All m/l picks are almost always dogs. I will hardly ever play a favorite at the m/l and if I do it is no worse than -115.


NBA

LA Lakers @ Houston

Rockets m/l (+118 Pinnacle) 1x

Houston have won 5 in a row at home now with notable wins over the Knicks, Bulls and Jazz. All the focus on this team was always going to be on the guards with high profile Harden and Lin manning the 1-2 and yet surprisingly the Rockets front court has been quite formidable, especially at home. Asik, Patterson and Parsons, many fans would struggle to give you any name on the Rockets list outside the guards, and their front court should not be as good as it is, but yet it is so. Let's not forget the Rockets have had arguably the toughest schedule in the whole league so far and their record (8-8) needs to be taken into context with their losses coming against the likes of OKC, Memphis, Miami, Utah etc (no weak teams) whereas the Lakers have a worse record at 8-9 despite a predominantly home schedule and yet they have managed to lose to the likes of Orlando and Sacramento in recent times and lets not forget the Lakers have a miserable road record at 1-4. Ths Lakers them has the potential to be great, possibly even Champions, but potential is not reality and the reality of the situation is they are currently 3-4 under (the saviour) D'antoni, they lead the league in turnovers, they get crushed on the fast break every game, seem to lack chemistry, have zero consistency, an injury list that is getting worse not better (add Gasol to the list) I could go on. Without Gasol the Lakers size advantage over the smaller rockets front court is neutralised, Kobe and Harden will probably cancel each other out, and Lin should be too crafty and quick Off the dribble for Morris who is clearly down on confidence and Duhon needs to go play in the D-League. Until the Lakers prove they can play on the road how is there value on them as favorites playing an under-rated team who is a very tough out at home?


Minnesota @ Philly

76'ers -3 (-101 Pinnacle) 1x

*Yes I am well aware that Love and Petkovic could have a field day against an undersized Philly front line, however on the flip side Minny is completely out matched from 1-3 even if Nick Young doesn't play as that simply means more minutes for quality players (Turner, T-Young and J-Rich).

OKC @ Brooklyn

OKC -4 (-109 Pinnacle) 2x


No Lopez and no Evans is a lot of blocks and rebounds missing from the Nets core strength, which is thier defense. In fact I expect OKC to turn the tables and dominate the rebounding today although Humphries will hustle and do his best. OKC red hot and rolling at the moment, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. They are also on a 6 game winning streak and have covered ATS in 8 of their last 10 games, including covering large lines of -8.5, -9.5, -9.5, -10.5 and -11.5 with ease on each occasion. Sefolosha the perfect guy to help keep Johnson in check, which leaves even more work for D-Will, Blatche and Wallace offensively.


NBA Total's


OKC @ Brooklyn

Over 191.5 (-109 Sportingbet) 1.5x

Wow. Since I posted this pick and locked it in at 191.5 it has been smashed out to 196! I had this total set at 196-197 and figured the total was lower than it should be as the books were over-compensating for the Nets having their leading scorer out (Lopez - 18.5 ppg), but it is a moot point on a team such as this, as those points can be easily assimilated by Humphries, Johnson, Wallace and D-Will, this is a team that is currently known for its defence but there is no shortage of offensively gifted players on this list. OKC is the league's most potent offence, averaging over 105 ppg and having hit the 100 mark in 9 straight games, so assuming OKC hits around their average (as Nets are weakened defensively without Lopez) of 105, that would require the Nets losing by 20 points with a score of around 85 for the over not to hit, highly unlikely. More realistic is a score of something like 102-97 (OKC) in my humble opinion.

LA Lakers @ Houston

Over 212 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x

I expect tempo from both teams, early shot's, plenty of fast break opportunities for the Rockets, a lack of defence, and plenty of points. The perfect two teams to play out an over ATM.

tailing

[vancityswag]

weeeee! good day today!

please let me know if this thread has helped anyone and whether or not i should continue this. not getting as much discusion on this page as expected but hopefully it grows!

lets hear some thoughts on tmrs games!

[hoont79]

I appreciate it big time vancityswag! I went 3-0 today thanks to a combo of reading the thread and then choosing what bets I liked out of them.

[ParlayBricker]

Clippers -8 might be a play for me, dallas is so old and overrated its not even funny

[vancityswag]

awesome great to hear. hopefully this helps more of us who are new to nba capping. i only started a month ago and have been doing pretty ok following these guys but its always a hassle digging through their threads. this way, i have everything collaborated for myself and others to use. bol on tommorow's card

[ParlayBricker]

Might as well keep it up, seems that the only peoples threads i check for plays are being posted in here plus the more discussion the games the better

[vancityswag]

Might as well keep it up, seems that the only peoples threads i check for plays are being posted in here plus the more discussion the games the better

Yea thats how i feel exactly! Hopefully it catches on and we get some more discussion from the big dogs.

[vancityswag]

Nuggets +1 -110 (5x)

an early play from t-wizzle! thanks! bol!

[pip2]

Yes this is definitely a great idea, thanks! It improves the information/crap ratio so there is more information and less crap...

[vancityswag]

I know, good chance it moves up.

Denver wins this game though. Time for them to wake up and win some road games. This is a big 5 game trip for them.

I like Portland +4. Pacers coming off a successful roadtrip and off a big, hardfought win tonight at Chicago.

word

[vancityswag]

NBA

*This is the best NBA card I have seen so far this year, so yes I have a lot of picks today.


Milwaukee @ SA
Spurs -8.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 2x

Denver @ Atlanta
Nuggets +1.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x


Portland @ Indiana
Pacers -4 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x

GS @ Detroit
Pistons +1 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x

Dallas @ LA Clippers
Clippers -8 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x


NBA Total's of the day

GS @ Detroit
Over 191 (-110 Pinnacle) 1x

Portland @ Indiana
Under 187 (-110 Pinnacle) 1x

12/5/12

San Antonio Milwaukee over 197.5 2x

thx sando & wguan2 for the early picks! today's card looks fun! BOL!

[wguan2]

Booked Denver +2 1x