NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**bballs84** · 11-12-12, 07:37 PM

Jason Terry and Brandon Bass will start in Monday's game against the Bulls.

**t-wizzle** · 11-12-12, 07:47 PM

I would stay away from Boston for the time being. They will eventually hit their stride but for now they are struggling game to game.

**JM92** · 11-12-12, 07:55 PM

Took the Heat - 5 basically because of what you said as well. But I don't like Terry starting at well for the c's and that made me stay away from any bets in those games. most of all, just tells me they're still looking for their best rotations and I don't like Terry spending energy chasing Rip Hamilton around screens.

**unitedlad** · 11-12-12, 08:36 PM

C's playing some great ball. Best they've played all season on the offense. Hope they can keep it up.

**Deol** · 11-12-12, 08:43 PM

Fading you in the NFL but tailing you here with the MIA play. Impressive start to the year!!

**elPkay** · 11-12-12, 10:47 PM

Nice record so far!

Followed you on the Parlay, even if it was tough watching the game for a while but that makes it even better.

Totally new to sports betting but I love NBA and you're definitely subscribed.

**MexicanStallion** · 11-12-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY #21: MIAMI ML/CELTICS +3 PARLAY +174

RISK $200 TO WIN $348

November 12th
1-0 ($348.00)

NBA Season
15-6 ($1829.50)

Spreads: 8-4 ($741.00)
Moneylines: 2-1 ($137.50)
Halves: 2-1 ($195.00)
Parlays: 3-0 ($756.00)

*12-1 Last 13 Bets*
*15-2 Last 17 Bets*

**1sob** · 11-13-12, 12:03 AM

congrats on the parlay

**unitedlad** · 11-13-12, 04:19 PM

Yo Goat. How do you think Neal will match up against the Laker tonight? That is if Parker is out.

**nastradamus** · 11-13-12, 04:22 PM

Parker is IN!

**paco** · 11-13-12, 04:23 PM

**JR007** · 11-13-12, 05:03 PM

goat, stay" humble" dude, you know that's" your strong suit"

**easyliving** · 11-13-12, 05:06 PM

with parker playing spurs look like a solid play

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-13-12, 05:13 PM

Nice record Goat

**Goat Milk** · 11-13-12, 06:55 PM

PLAY 22: LAKERS +1 -110 RISK $165 TO WIN $150

Today's card is horrible. Remember we're still very early into the year, I wouldn't recommend dropping thousands on a play so early in the year like the Lakerman does with only a few games played. I'm waiting til a few more games are played to be dropping 4 figures on a play.

The Spurs are playing yet another road game tonight (I think their 4th straight?). Doesn't matter for the Spurs though who have some significant advantages in this matchup. The Lakers have been awful at defending the pick n roll the first 7 games. Spurs are primarily a pick n roll team with Parker and Duncan often running 3 4 pick n rolls on a SINGLE possession. IMO Spurs are the more diligent team and will keep running the same play until there is a lapse in judgement from Gasol or Howard. However, with the flu bug running around, coupled with all the energy in LA right now, I have to think the Lakers will be playing with a little more adrenaline tonight than the Spurs.

Howard has a massive mismatch in this game. There is absolutely no way that Boris Diaw will be able to guard Dwight Howard, and putting Duncan on Howard would be a stupid coaching decision as it would undoubtedly lead him to foul trouble. Splitter and Blaire are both poor options too. Howard will dominate the paint tonight and clean up everything around the basket. Expect him to get the Spurs in the penalty early and often in almost every quarter.

Lakers will be shooting FTs all night tonight--so Spurs backers, don't bitch.

I'm not sure if Pop is gonna put Green or Leonard on Bryant, but if I'm coaching tonight I am for sure putting Leonard on Bryant as he is a much better defender imo. Leonard might be able to cause some problems for Bryant in theory but Bryant will not be stopped when playing against the Spurs even if you triple team him. Leonard and Green are both poor options and liabilities on the offense end imo. Expect Bryant to get looks from both Ginobli and Steven Jackson as well this game. I expect Pop to throw all of these guys on Bryant at some point in time.

Gasol and Duncan is always an interesting matchup. If I'm the Lakers, I may toy with the idea of having Dwight Howard guard Duncan for stretches. I can't really say anything here as I'm not sure what to expect from Gasol tonight because he is easily the most unpredictable player on the Lakers team.

Moore is a much better option than Blake here so it may be a blessing in disguise. There is no way I would be backing the Lakers if Steve Blake were asked to chase Parker around maybe a couple hundred pick and rolls throughout the course of the game. Moore is a better defender, more athletic, and a better overall player than Blake. Expect him to make Parker work on the other end.

The Spurs have the best bench in all of basketball, with Ginobli, Jackson, Neil, Splitter, Patty Mills. I expect all of these guys to see minutes tonight. Benches don't always play against each other. Don't listen to people that say otherwise. For example, coach will most likely leave Gasol at the least out there with the second unit, and you better believe that Tiago Splitter will stand no chance of guarding Pau Gasol down low. Ginobli has a big mismatch here as I don't see anyone that can defend him. If I'm coach I have no choice but to leave either Bryant or Artest on the floor when Manu is out there. Not doing so could prove detrimental if Ginobli is feeling it. Expect Meeks to see some time against either Manu or Gary Neil. Duhan will see some playing time here as well. He is a horrible offensive player but solid defensively so expect him to cause some problems for a guy like Neil. Jamison and Hill are both big and the Spurs just don't have enough bigs to throw out there.

Captain Jack and Artest should guard each other at some point tonight--always an interesting matchup to watch.

The Lakers will win the battle on the glass tonight and score more points in the point imo. If they can manage to shrink the perimeter somewhat, I like their chances to win this game. As I said, SA has some significant advantages in this matchup, but the size of Dwight down low is the main factor why I'm taking the Lakers here.

**iceman8847** · 11-13-12, 07:01 PM

G/M what's your thoughts on Charlotte -2 does Washington get there first win ?

**sando** · 11-13-12, 07:04 PM

Good luck tonight on the Lakers mate, I so nearly pulled the trigger myself. As always your write-ups are solid and I look forward to them on a daily basis!

**t-wizzle** · 11-13-12, 07:11 PM

GL on Lakers. I can't touch that game.

**2daBank** · 11-13-12, 07:21 PM

I like it goaty (of coarse I've liked Lake show every gm since they fired that dipshit).....stay hot bro

**pip2** · 11-13-12, 07:28 PM

Great write up, I don't agree with it, but here is something that might work in your favor:

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/

**Byrone09** · 11-13-12, 07:28 PM

man you and Lakerboy always have such quality analysis. I thought the Spurs would win but I'm glad to be backing the home team now that you have made the play. Just hope Howard doesn't get into early foul trouble or Gasol disappears. Thanks GM!

**Seto** · 11-13-12, 08:14 PM

since dwight is your main angle on the game, what do you think of player props?

pts+rebs over 30.5 -140

**Goat Milk** · 11-13-12, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by iceman8847

G/M what's your thoughts on Charlotte -2 does Washington get there first win ?

Sorry ice was cooking dinner. Me and Sando talked about that game early this morning. I leaned the Bobcats but not enough to play it. I will rarely, if ever, bet a game like that, involving two of the worst teams in the nba. I usually don't touch games like that.

Originally posted by Byrone09

man you and Lakerboy always have such quality analysis. I thought the Spurs would win but I'm glad to be backing the home team now that you have made the play. Just hope Howard doesn't get into early foul trouble or Gasol disappears. Thanks GM!

Lakerboy? Lakerboy doesn't do analysis. He only posts plays.

Originally posted by Seto

since dwight is your main angle on the game, what do you think of player props?

pts+rebs over 30.5 -140

Yeah I like that prop. Not going to play it myself. Remember that a guys value to a team is not just if he gets 25 and 15 boards. Dwight's impact on this game could merely be getting SA in the penalty early. He could finish with 16 and 12 for example but have a big game because of his presence. But yeah I like the prop.

**vyomguy** · 11-13-12, 09:36 PM

such long analysis and only risking $165 ???

**Goat Milk** · 11-13-12, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

such long analysis and only risking $165 ???

only took 5 minutes to write. this stuff flows out of me easily. this is not a game you want to go big on. don't pound the spurs like I know you're thinking about doing. it's only a few games into the season. Save your big bets for when you have a solid amount of info to assess....

Just my opinion.

**Seto** · 11-13-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Yeah I like that prop. Not going to play it myself. Remember that a guys value to a team is not just if he gets 25 and 15 boards. Dwight's impact on this game could merely be getting SA in the penalty early. He could finish with 16 and 12 for example but have a big game because of his presence. But yeah I like the prop.

ok thanks for the input as always.

juice has gone up to -155 so i just may lay off this one.

game time decision

gl on the lakeshow

**vyomguy** · 11-13-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

only took 5 minutes to write. this stuff flows out of me easily. this is not a game you want to go big on. don't pound the spurs like I know you're thinking about doing. it's only a few games into the season. Save your big bets for when you have a solid amount of info to assess....

Just my opinion.

already pounded for nearly 40k in 3 different books goat. I am very confident. I dont make such plays often. Maybe once or twice in a month. Good luck either way.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

already pounded for nearly 40k in 3 different books goat. I am very confident. I dont make such plays often. Maybe once or twice in a month. Good luck either way.

Good luck vyom. Is that ML or did you get a + number?

**vyomguy** · 11-13-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good luck vyom. Is that ML or did you get a + number?

both ml and spread at max at 3 different books...i got -1 in all 3 books

**lakerboy** · 11-13-12, 09:50 PM

Cmon goat. My big plays are doing well. See how I stayed off the magic? I almost took raps +9 and ml +408.

**Teaser Sucker** · 11-13-12, 09:53 PM

I also like this play, and am on it as well. Public favors Spurs, with a home-dog at a +1 line (in my experience, this has a high hit rate in NBA). Lakers will play with a new type of energy tonight. Good analysis on your part, Goat. BOL.

**Ch Br** · 11-13-12, 09:53 PM

yea Spurs 4th road game since last wed

**Goat Milk** · 11-13-12, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Cmon goat. My big plays are doing well. See how I stayed off the magic? I almost took raps +9 and ml +408.

Lakerman your big plays usually do good. I like how you stayed off the magic. Are you really leaving sbr if the packers make the playoffs?

**lakerboy** · 11-13-12, 10:01 PM

Yes. I have to keep my word. I still don't think they will make it. They have issues.

**Ch Br** · 11-13-12, 10:03 PM

Nice write up Goat...

But i think that the perimeter shooting, cohesive nature of the Spurs, Already battle tested squad in this young season coupled with the fact that Pop wants to beat the lakers early to motivate his team later in the year will prove to be too much..

Also pop has to be motivated with how LA just ousted his great friend Mike Brown. Plus Spurs want to prove early that they can hang with this "world beater" team that everyone in LA was already crowning, then after the first 2 games.. all you could hear was crickets and bitching around LA...