Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**sando** · 11-20-12, 04:35 AM

Ok boys gonna try and do all my reply's and comments on one page so I don't clog up the thread. Also thanks to untied, shogun, aussie H and everyone else who sends me points everyday. To be honest it's lucky I don't gamble with real $$ like I do with my points, I'm the biggest desperado at SBR sportsbook haha. When I'm not taking impossible 5 team totals parlays that will never come off I'm blowing them on baccarat in the SBR casino, but thanks anyway because I do have fun blowing them.

Goat - Yeah I've been wondering the same thing, why don't any of the big names post in here? Is it because I'm still a relative rookie at SBR or perhaps because I'm not American or something else? Anyway where you been man? I've been missing your daily match-up analysis on key games, the best at SBR hands down.

Dr Bob - Thanks for checking in mate, love your work!

Simon - I check your thread daily mate, your doing pretty damn well yourself. Love the restraint you show when you don't feel like you have a angle. Forced plays are losing plays.

Shogun - I'm stoked that you can get your son that lego courtesy of your local bookie. I love lego (at least I did 20 years ago haha). Also your boy's fighting soon, can't remember the last time Shogun went into a fight as a dog? (Bones Jones excluded of course).

Realdeal - This guy is killing the books. I highly reccomend people check out his NBA thread on a daily basis. Provides solid analysis that even Goat would appreciate...

Southmad - So how did you do at UFC 154? I take it you went large on Hendricks?

Mr. Rick - I just found your NBA thread today, will be checking in regularly, cheers.

Untied, USfunca, Byrone, AK57 and all the rest of the boys that have been here since the beginning - thanks for all the support!

Shout out to ThatGuy - the man when it comes to NBA totals!

**therealdealau** · 11-20-12, 07:10 AM

Thanks for the shoutout pal but my record is only a mere mortal to yours

**southmadejd** · 11-20-12, 07:18 AM

Hey Sando.....yeah I went pretty big on Hendricks and also went big on Rafael Dos Anjos against Mark Bocek. I was really surprised at both of those lines being around -140. I personally had them around the -220 range so I was more than happy to take advantage of that. I also had a small play on Condit which I lost but I hit a three teamer parlay with Dos Anjos, Hendriks, and GSP winning by decision (anybody that watches MMA knows that this bet is the holy grail for any GSP fight) and that hit. All in all with your plays and mine on MMA this weekend was absolutely beautiful for me.

**southmadejd** · 11-20-12, 07:35 AM

Lol....didn't your thread originate in Player's Talk and then get moved to NBA and then did they move it back to Player's Talk for some reason? I guess they realize how popular this thread is going to get.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 11-20-12, 08:02 AM

Keep up the fantastic work Sando.....

I'll be sure to try and return the favour when the NRL season starts.

By the way, which bookies are you referring to? Reason I ask is I have a mate that had a number of dramas with a local book last year....

**suresystemworks** · 11-20-12, 08:04 AM

Waiting for your picks sando! Already locked in my bets last night! and I have opposite bets as yours. Was killed today!

**VictorHDH** · 11-20-12, 08:24 AM

Great picks, keep doing great.

**Catchn_Picks** · 11-20-12, 10:24 AM

You mean you can't do better than 6-0. Hell, anybody can do that.

BOL and TY for saving my night

**SlickRick1382** · 11-20-12, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

notice how none of the big posters chime in here but i know for a fact read this thread everyday

Why is that a bad thing? Why wouldn't he rather have just people that want to discuss basketball and win on here than the so called "big posters" that sometimes hijack threads.

**sando** · 11-20-12, 04:13 PM

NBA

Brooklyn @ LA Lakers

Lakers -5.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Some key psychological angles in this one.

1.D'antoni's first official game as head coach of the Lakers, surely the boys will be keen to get off to a flying start.
2. Howard v. The Nets. Remember Howard originally wanted to join D-Will at Brooklyn and was at once stage rumored to be on his way to Brooklyn before the "Deal" fell through and the Nets landed joe johnson. Surely Howard will be up for a big game to show the Nets what they missed out on?

D-Will is not 100% the kid has a busted leg and a busted arm (fell awkwardly on his elbow against the Kings). He is Actually listed as day to day on injury reports although I do expect him to play.

Lakers 4-1 ATS last 5 games.

Lakers match up great with the Nets. Howard can contain Lopez. Kobe if he so chooses can make life very difficult for JJ, and can deal with his Iso-Joe 1 on 1 business without any help D needed, but of course their is always Artest as a pretty handy back-up to guard JJ and or make life difficult for Crash Wallace. Biggest danger to the Lakers is Deron, however Morris has been playing outstanding D for someone who started as the Lakers 4th string p/g (is that even possible?) and is one of the very few p/g's who is actually big and strong enough to handle D-Will's physical style. Even if D-Will torches young Morris Kobe can switch, Artest on JJ, maybe Hill to spend time on the dangerous Crash and although this is assuming D-Will actually plays. Lopez battling Howard and probably Pau is a tough cover.

**Shifty107** · 11-20-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Why is that a bad thing? Why wouldn't he rather have just people that want to discuss basketball and win on here than the so called "big posters" that sometimes hijack threads.

Exactly. Keep up the stellar work Sando.

**sando** · 11-20-12, 04:38 PM

Not touching the other two games boys. Still can't decide if the Hornes are a decent team this year so best to stay away, and on the other game would not be surprised to see the raptors cover in Philly one bit however no play for me. May have a total soon, still working on it.

**tr4sh** · 11-20-12, 05:06 PM

Any thoughts on Lakers/Nets over? Lakers offense will be good but I think Nets offense is suprisingly good (esp the bench). Nets D is good but they have been putting up those numbers over mediocre teams. Only thing really holding me back is the possible number of free throws or lackthereof because of the offense that D'antoni might run... but so far, Lakers are averaging ~30 free throws while nets are averaging ~25... pretty nice numbers.

**SiMON2g** · 11-20-12, 05:21 PM

Thanks for the mention pal, appreciate it.

You're a great bloke and love the way you handle yourself! Keep it up.

Let's cash this baby!

**Catchn_Picks** · 11-20-12, 05:21 PM

Win or lose Sando, you analysis was absolutely superior in that in involved critical thinking on several different levels.

Now all we have to do is win it!

lolol

gl

**sando** · 11-20-12, 05:41 PM

NY @ New Orleans

Over 186 (-110 Pinnacle) 1.5x

**spoikle** · 11-20-12, 05:54 PM

Hi Sando, first time on these forums and seeing your thread. Props on the previous picks. Thanks for your picks, GL!

**Crowing Capers** · 11-20-12, 05:58 PM

The man has spoken.

**grim259** · 11-20-12, 06:03 PM

I now wish I had gone out on a limb with just $1 parlay on all those picks yesterday. Well worth it just for fun, and would've made me happy camper. As it is, still made plenty and Sando remains the man.

Hope these picks come through tonight, but if not I won't worry.

**Eagles27** · 11-20-12, 06:15 PM

Anyone have any insider info on why the line keeps droping for the under? Now sitting at 185.5 with my local. Doesnt make any sense why so many people are pounding the under. Knicks had a pretty poor shooting night against Indy, but indy has a pretty solid D, where as the hornets have been giving up 100+ points the last few times out. Am I missing something here?

**sando** · 11-20-12, 06:17 PM

Achtung! Warning!

Remember we do not raise our bets when we're winning and nor do we lower them when we are losing. This is a rather common betting stratefy and IMO it is stupid and I'll tell you why. If you raise your bets in increments when winning and lower them in increments when losing, then this is what will happen - Your largest wager will always be a loser and and your smallest wager will always be a winner. Most professional sports bettors bet in units, and if you don't have a unit price yet then set one now and stick to it. You need discipline to make money from sports betting, it is the only way and it is easier said than done. With a set unit price we can deal with variance. Variance is every sports bettors problem. It is simple mathematics and it cannot be avoided. If you don't know what variance is then you need to do some reading. Personally I would reccomend if your bankroll is 1K then your unit price should be no more than $20. Most people say you should never bet more than 5% of your roll on any 1 pick. A unit range of 1-5 units is a fairly common way to seperate your ok picks (1 unit) from your "bets of the year" types (5 units). Of course as gamblers most of us have a higher adversion to risk, so I am comfortable betting up to 10% of my roll on a 5 unit pick but everyone needs to find their own middle ground where you still have the thrill of gambling without that horrible feeling in your stomach where you know you "can't afford" to lose this bet.

Winning sports betting doesn't actually have to be as complicated as some make it out to be. It's a relatively simple process provided you know how to manage your bankroll, then all that is left to do is pick winners (the hard part). If you do not have the ability to pick winners yourself then find someone who can and tail them using disciplined money management strategies and make some fukcing money. Those that say if you can't pick winners yourself, then you shouldn't be gambling - bullshit. Money is neccesary to get ahead in this world. We as human's are always looking for ways to make money and/or make some more money. If you love to bet on sports but can't break out of the red then why the fukc shouldn't you follow someone who is willing to share their insight for free. On this forum alone their seems to be at least 1-2 guys minimum in every sport who have long term positve EV betting systems and post their picks for all to see.

**Eagles27** · 11-20-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by sando

Achtung! Warning!

Remember we do not raise our bets when we're winning and nor do we lower them when we are losing. This is a rather common betting stratefy and IMO it is stupid and I'll tell you why. If you raise your bets in increments when winning and lower them in increments when losing, then this is what will happen - Your largest wager will always be a loser and and your smallest wager will always be a winner. Most professional sports bettors bet in units, and if you don't have a unit price yet then set one now and stick to it. You need discipline to make money from sports betting, it is the only way and it is easier said than done. With a set unit price we can deal with variance. Variance is every sports bettors problem. It is simple mathematics and it cannot be avoided. If you don't know what variance is then you need to do some reading. Personally I would reccomend if your bankroll is 1K then your unit price should be no more than $20. Most people say you should never bet more than 5% of your roll on any 1 pick. A unit range of 1-5 units is a fairly common way to seperate your ok picks (1 unit) from your "bets of the year" types (5 units). Of course as gamblers most of us have a higher adversion to risk, so I am comfortable betting up to 10% of my roll on a 5 unit pick but everyone needs to find their own middle ground where you still have the thrill of gambling without that horrible feeling in your stomach where you know you "can't afford" to lose this bet.

Great advice, I dont consider my-self an expert but I had to learn the above rule the hard way. I'd give you points for this post, but im a degen SBR points gambler and have no points to give lol

**westside8** · 11-20-12, 06:32 PM

Well said sando

**freshguy222** · 11-20-12, 06:36 PM

hey sando,
thanks for the picks. woke myself to get them^^
not exactly liking this over, feels like an ugly game to me

**sando** · 11-20-12, 06:47 PM

Eagles and freshguy - yes their has been significant steam pushing this total down as low as 185, although now that it appears to have stabilised at 185 and (according to my line service) 70% of the money is coming in for the over now. I am hunting around for some info to explain this movement will get back to you ASAP but have to duck off to the shops for half an hour first. It was the initial downward movement in the line that perked my interest as I have this O/U at 190+

Also in my experience ugly games, i.e potential unders tend to be played by teams that match up really well against each other and I am not convinced that is the case here??

**SlickRick1382** · 11-20-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Eagles27

Anyone have any insider info on why the line keeps droping for the under? Now sitting at 185.5 with my local. Doesnt make any sense why so many people are pounding the under. Knicks had a pretty poor shooting night against Indy, but indy has a pretty solid D, where as the hornets have been giving up 100+ points the last few times out. Am I missing something here?

Hornets have a pretty decent Defense as well. Last 3 games have been against Houston, OKC and Milwaukee (N.O. being on a B2B with travel). Even with that they're allowing 96 pts a game.

Think the fact that N.O. is on a 3 days rest playing at home may be part of the reason that the line is moving in favor of the under. I like the under at 188-189 but I was away doing sales tax for clients so wasn't able to lock it in. Not playable at 185'-186

**freshguy222** · 11-20-12, 06:51 PM

thanks for the quick response. a question to you sando
if a team is in a bad spot and lacks effort and we all know there are these kind of games. where do teams lack more intensity on defense or on offense? i feel they would allow more easy buckets or not? or is it team based and cannot be generalized?
any idea on the total in the lakers game? it looks unbelievably high doesnt it?

**Eagles27** · 11-20-12, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by sando

Eagles and freshguy - yes their has been significant steam pushing this total down as low as 185, although now that it appears to have stabilised at 185 and (according to my line service) 70% of the money is coming in for the over now. I am hunting around for some info to explain this movement will get back to you ASAP but have to duck off to the shops for half an hour first. It was the initial downward movement in the line that perked my interest as I have this O/U at 190+

Also in my experience ugly games, i.e potential unders tend to be played by teams that match up really well against each other and I am not convinced that is the case here??

Right now I have the knicks and lakers in a parlay at -5 each and lakers by themselves at -5 (bought hooks and bought down the knicks line to -5 in-case its closer than I expect). Since placing my bets, I see both lines have moved up knicks now -7 and lakers -6. My thoughts are that people are expecting a knicks blow-out? I can easily see a 101-82 type of score in favor of the knicks. Afterall the knicks D is fairly solid, and the Hornets have struggled against defensive minded teams (ex: sixers). Anyway, initially, I liked the over, but I am going to stick with my Knicks + Lakers ATS plays. Im more curious now to see how this plays out now, best of luck to everyone though, you've def been on the money this season.

**JayDeezy** · 11-20-12, 06:57 PM

Thanks for the warning, Sando. Had to learn a bit of it the hard way being a newbie to online betting, you hit the nail on the head. Every newbie should read that post, would make for less headaches and heavier wallets. Riding along for the Lakers pick.

**Eagles27** · 11-20-12, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Hornets have a pretty decent Defense as well. Last 3 games have been against Houston, OKC and Milwaukee (N.O. being on a B2B with travel). Even with that they're allowing 96 pts a game.

Hornets D is average at best, they gave up 100+ points to Houston, OKC and Mil, not to mention 99 to the bobcats. None of those teams have stellars D. New York comes into this game with the best of both worlds (stellar offense and stellar D). I think Knicks put up 100+ on the hornets tonight easy, however my initial inclination is that the hornets will struggle against the Knicks D, not to mention, sometimes to rest can lead to teams coming out flat. We will see though, in my opinion, with the line movement and suck, its too close to call for my taste as I feel the knicks ATS is a safer bet (which I got at -5, because I put them in a parlay with the lakers at -5 also).

**kensh3** · 11-20-12, 07:07 PM

Good advice there Sando. Congratulations on your winning picks, keep up the good work.

**Marc2010** · 11-20-12, 07:09 PM

how does Anthony davis being out tonight affect the game??

Anthony Davis has a stress reaction to his left ankle and will not play in Tuesday's game against the Knicks.

**That Guy** · 11-20-12, 07:11 PM

Cheers for the shout out mate!
GL today.. I'm on Lakers -5.5 as well

**Catchn_Picks** · 11-20-12, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Marc2010

how does Anthony davis being out tonight affect the game??

Anthony Davis has a stress reaction to his left ankle and will not play in Tuesday's game against the Knicks.

Great advice Sando...many people around here have learned these lessons the hard way.

Line drop is curious...am concerned about the loss of Davis...but some NBA teams are considered over teams and some under. NOH are definitely considered an Under team...that means even the public can drive the total down before game time, which is not the norm.

**Eagles27** · 11-20-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Marc2010

how does Anthony davis being out tonight affect the game??

Anthony Davis has a stress reaction to his left ankle and will not play in Tuesday's game against the Knicks.

Oh damn, that is BIG, when did this info come out? Wish I would have taken Knicks by themselves now, incase the Lakers crap themselves tonight lol