Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[rohan22no]

Tigers M/L!

[gimps_77]

has anyone seen the sportsbet special of forward finesse?

Starting prop, hooker, 2nd rower or lock to score first try at $7

Thats a lot of options for $7.

anyone have thoughts?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Most my books only showing +12.5 or +12

It's been pounded mate for some reason.

Not sure if there is a late withdrawal for the Sea Eagles, but I got it yesterday on Luxbet at +13.5.
Now it is down to +12.5, which has also been smashed into $1.84

Tigers ML and Tigers ATS have both been hit hard today.

[TheMLBKing]

got eagles ML in a parlay and this late line movement is scaring me.

[gimps_77]

no one interested in a forward first try at $7?

[sando]

1.5* Jorge Tafua Over 1 line break ($1.77 Luxbet) By far the best line breaker in the NRL. Line should be 1.5

[TheMLBKing]

thoughts on all the late money on tigers?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Big Red back for the Tigers, hence the llate line movement.

Keith Galloway that is.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Tigers so much ball and field position, but can't get over the chalk

[davopnz]

can't see any reason to not fade the shitty tigers here

[Tim Gerry Mander]

If Braith Anasta could catch and pass, the Tigers would have gone very close to winning the game.

Phuck me dead, he was like an extra man for Manly.

How many times did the ball find the deck from Anasta or Marshall instead of a player?

Tigers had enough field position and ball to win the match, their execution and handling let them down badly.

Manly were there for the taking.

[rohan22no]

Ya, tigers def had their chances in that one. Did Tafua make a line break??

[Dr.Gonzo]

Marshall and Anasta we're so bad tonight it was embarrassing to watch, should both be relegated to park football for the rest of the season after those performances.

[davopnz]

You have to factor in that anasta and bunji are crap though, the tigers are 2nd bottom on the table for a reason. just continue fading them from here on out

[Dr.Gonzo]

You have to factor in that anasta and bunji are crap though, the tigers are 2nd bottom on the table for a reason. just continue fading them from here on out

I did, that's why I took the over 14 team points instead of the start

[Shazzadude]

Glad I sat that one out, it was a good line by the bookies.

[sando]

1.5* Jorge Tafua Over 1 line break ($1.77 Luxbet) By far the best line breaker in the NRL. Line should be 1.5

In hindsight the line was fair at 1 and I just got over-excited, it happens sometimes. Tafua's stats are real nice and I'd cashed a bunch of props on him this year, probably developed a bit of a man-crush on him, however I still don't think it was a bad bet as he has had 8 line breaks over his last 3 games, I was expecting a high scoring game and the Tigers edge defense is far from stellar.

[ExodusNZ]

In hindsight the line was fair at 1 and I just got over-excited, it happens sometimes. Tafua's stats are real nice and I'd cashed a bunch of props on him this year, probably developed a bit of a man-crush on him, however I still don't think it was a bad bet as he has had 8 line breaks over his last 3 games, I was expecting a high scoring game and the Tigers edge defense is far from stellar.

To be honest, I thought he didnt get the ball enough, Matai usually passes him alot of ball (and i dont know the stats, but im sure Matai has alot of line break assists) - So that didnt help

[Cubanpete]

Very tempted to go against my countrymen in the cricket tonight. 1.8 looks generous but I'm concerned that its now or never for Australia. Is this the one we lift for?

[Cubanpete]

Sorry match starts tomorrow night

[OZnBa Fan]

any1 else been having trouble accessing sbr?

[Shazzadude]

Yeah sbr was down for most of the day today.

[ExodusNZ]

Warriors-Sharks game (Warning there is a chance of rain) - Liking the over 34.5 in the match

Quick facts

As far as I can tell the O/U for the year are against me on this:

Warriors: 7-10-1
Sharks: 9-9

But the O/U lines for the Warriors games during the year have been set anywhere from 38 to 45! (ie Higher than average - Line makers accounting for the probability of more points scored when the Warriors are playing etc..)

Sharks:
Ave points scored away - 12.89
Ave points conceded away - 22

Warriors:
Ave points scored at home - 21.22
Ave points conceded at home - 19.11

Warriors same team as last week - Sharks are + Gallen (more to come on that)

Johnson, Leuluai & Carney coming into great form, able to create points out of basically nothing.

Negatives: Gallen back - Which you may/will mean the Sharks defense will be even better this week (However with Gallen back, Fafita's work rate will drop - he generally takes a step back when the captain Gallen is playing - Massive job on Saturday for the Warriors forwards against those two + Bukuya/Graham) - And both fighting for a top 8 spot so both teams will look to tighten up.

Feel free to fade!

[lordkai35]

hearing luke lewis might also be a late inclusion but no solid info yet. very nice stats, last 5/6 games between two sides have been over 34.5 but id w8 for final team lists and weather condition before final bets

[rohan22no]

Very tempted to go against my countrymen in the cricket tonight. 1.8 looks generous but I'm concerned that its now or never for Australia. Is this the one we lift for?

Hey Pete,
In the last match I bet on Australia before the game at $4, instantly traded out and bet on England at $2.50 when they were 3/30 odd. We seem to be able to stick with the poms in the first day/session, at least in the first 2 tests. I think a similar approach for tomorrow might work.

[trigga50]

Man SBR has been sucky over the last two days, Im on MAC and keep getting page errors or browser will only display the top 4 or 5 posts on a page and not the rest. Just wanted to share a few details on Friday nights AFL game. Yesterday I was able to get on OVER 201.5 total points on bet365. It has now gone up to 204.5 still with plenty of value.

The below stats are from this season, the first score in each stat is relevant to Geelong or North, the second score being the opposition.

Geelong @ Etihad
Round2 VS NMFC 112-108
Round3 VS Carlton 119 - 103
Round5 VS WB 107 - 86
Round7 VS Essendon 113-85


AVG 112.7ppg


North @ Etihad S-C
Round1 VS Collingwood 87 - 103
Round2 VS Geelong 108-112
Round4 VS Brisbane 125-62
Round7 VS WB 151-97
Round9 VS Crows 124-125
Round10 VS Saints 133-65
Round14 VS GWS 130-44
Round15 VS Richmond 128-66
Round17 VS Carlton 108-109
Round18 VS Melbourne 150-28


AVG 124 PPG

I think both sides will be dangerous when the ball gets inside 50 and don't see either sides defence preventing more goals than usual in this game. North don't have much left to play for, but should hopefully see this game as a test and try their best against one of the top sides in the AFL. I still see Geelong winning this game but the over seems the better bet to me.

[trigga50]

WNBA

All star break is over so back to the grind with WNBA, hopefully I can get back on track with some wins. Books seem to be a little loose in their totals tomorrow.

NY VS Washington
Washington's offence as of late has been good, and put up 80+ points against defensively weak teams. NY ranks 8th in points allowed and Washington Ranks 9th. These teams are similar in the respect they score big against poor defensive teams and struggle against good teams, sometimes only putting up mid 50's. Everyone should be fresh after all star break, no niggling injuries, and hopefully lots of team practise and shoot around sessions. Im looking for Washington to win this one but the over is the value play here. These two teams have not yet played this season which gives us an ideal opportunity to catch the bookies out on this one. Based on each teams trends over last 5 games at home / away I have this game around the 155 mark giving us 9 points of value.

OVER 146 @1.91 X3 UNITS to win 2.73 UNITS


Two more games coming. Im loving Indiana +1.5 against Connecticut on Friday, line seems too easy, will do more research tomorrow as Ive been caught out on similar situations before.

[sando]

Have already made one AFL play for this w/e. Got in yesterday @ $2.05, however the line is dropping and by Sat afternoon the best you will be able to get is $1.80 on the young Giants I would say. Would have posted this play yesterday at a better price, however SBR has been down for 2 days. Have half a dozen reasons why I like this play, however in no mood for write-ups. I'll be fair and post it at the current price available.
Melbourne @ GWS
2* GWS m/l ($1.90 Pinnacle)
　
NRL Futures
Been through the NRL ladder using the Bailey's ladder predictor a bunch of times using alternate results on key games at the top of the table. In two of the likely scenarios the Roosters finish two points clear so that even if they lost the decisive round 25 game against the Rabbitohs, they would still finish higher on +/- differential. In the likely scenario they (Roosters and Rabbitohs) finish equal on points heading into the final round game where they play each other, so the minor premier would obviously be the winner of this game (Rabbitohs home game but at neutral venue - ANZ stadium). The Roosters already have the better +/- differential and with more chances to extend the gap with two "easy" games to come against the Tigers and Titans where they will probably rack up the points. The Rabbitohs also play the Tigers but have a nasty patch for three weeks where they have to play Melbourne, Manly and the Bulldogs which wont help their differential. This period is they key to the minor premiership - Do the Rabbitohs win 1 or 2 of those games? They are not winning all three.
2* Roosters - NRL minor premiers ($1.91 Sportsbet)

[rohan22no]

nice one...thanks sando!

[shevabets]

WNBA

All star break is over so back to the grind with WNBA, hopefully I can get back on track with some wins. Books seem to be a little loose in their totals tomorrow.

- Wouldn't you think this game could get the special treatment being the first game of the 2nd half of the season, and the only game to play tonight (other than MLB)? Lines could actually be sharper than they appear due to the attention it is getting; it's hardly 'just another beaverball game'

These two teams have not yet played this season which gives us an ideal opportunity to catch the bookies out on this one. Based on each teams trends over last 5 games at home / away I have this game around the 155 mark giving us 9 points of value.

- They played each other plenty during last season and their average total was 144. Washington is capable of demolishing teams that don't rebound well (san antonio twice by 22 and 12 - Washington picked up 60% of all rebounds in those two games combined; Tulsa by 23 (63% rebs, no Liz Cambage)... but almost every time the Mystics don't outrebound their opponents, they lose straight up, with just two notable exceptions that happened on B2B in early June at Connecticut and vs Minnesota where Washington was getting no respect whatsoever and won two games SU despite being a +7 and +11 favorite AND only collecting 46% and 44% of all available rebounds)

But New York is a solid rebounding team to say the least so there won't be many second-chance tip-ins for Washington frontcourt players... one could also make a case that this time around, NY is the team getting no respect (from the opening line, at least). I don't disagree with the OVER, I guess (although I bet the Under for the above-mention reasons) but I do think the Liberty could stay competitive all of the game - or maybe win it.

...

[OZnBa Fan]

Have already made one AFL play for this w/e. Got in yesterday @ $2.05, however the line is dropping and by Sat afternoon the best you will be able to get is $1.80 on the young Giants I would say. Would have posted this play yesterday at a better price, however SBR has been down for 2 days. Have half a dozen reasons why I like this play, however in no mood for write-ups. I'll be fair and post it at the current price available.
Melbourne @ GWS
2* GWS m/l ($1.90 Pinnacle)
　

love the giants play mate

[MrXYZ]

NY/Mystics total now at 145.

[OZnBa Fan]

WNBA

All star break is over so back to the grind with WNBA, hopefully I can get back on track with some wins. Books seem to be a little loose in their totals tomorrow.

NY VS Washington
Washington's offence as of late has been good, and put up 80+ points against defensively weak teams. NY ranks 8th in points allowed and Washington Ranks 9th. These teams are similar in the respect they score big against poor defensive teams and struggle against good teams, sometimes only putting up mid 50's. Everyone should be fresh after all star break, no niggling injuries, and hopefully lots of team practise and shoot around sessions. Im looking for Washington to win this one but the over is the value play here. These two teams have not yet played this season which gives us an ideal opportunity to catch the bookies out on this one. Based on each teams trends over last 5 games at home / away I have this game around the 155 mark giving us 9 points of value.

OVER 146 @1.91 X3 UNITS to win 2.73 UNITS


Two more games coming. Im loving Indiana +1.5 against Connecticut on Friday, line seems too easy, will do more research tomorrow as Ive been caught out on similar situations before.

a bit of movement for the under... dangerous?

[Shazzadude]

That's a nice third quarter for you Trigga

[OZnBa Fan]

great work trigga