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NBA 2nd Half Play
2* Knicks -8 2nd Half (-120)Comment -
Can't believe J.R. is missing everything while the Celtics race away..Comment -
Sando Mate I leave the states tomorrow back in time for the weekend afl. Kangaroos and Tigers are the plays? I love the suns btw they play my boys toughComment -
Any thoughts on Bulls/Nets Sando? Ton of injuries on each side, Nets the better team maybe. They just seem to lack the mental toughness needed to send the series to 7. Then again Nate could go on a brickfest & sink the Bulls singlehandedly.Comment -
AFL
Ive got nothing but favourites so far. No totals yet, just working on the spreads. There's going to be some old fashioned beat downs this w/e. Of the 9 games to be played only 2 of the 'dogs have a genuine chance in Port against the 'Roos and the Tigers against the Cats. Some might think the Suns have a sniff against Freo, mainly due to Freo's key injuries and suspensions, other wise you expect to see 3+ games in excess of 10 goal margins this week I think.
Melbourne @ Carlton
4* Blues -60.5 ($1.90 Pinnacle)
I've been reading the Demons pretty well this year having faded them every round (whether with an actual bet or just a lean) except against GWS and Brisbane the last two weeks where I have cashed my ATS plays on the Melbourne boys. Well it's time to jump back off the wagon. Already struggling for genuine talent, they are now without two of their 3 best players in Clarke and Watts and Dawes is still a week away. The Blues lose Gibbs but the possible return of key forward Waite to compliment the dangerous trio of Yarran, Betts and Garlett should spell a long long day for the Melbourne defenders, especially without the classy Watts down back. The Blues are starting to build into the season nicely after an ordinary start, but more important than their 2-3 record is their % which is currently at a rather average 103.67% This of course could become extremely relevant at the business end of the season as the Blues look to consolidate a spot in the 8 (assuming they get there) and the Blues know that outside of a game against GWS this represents their best chance to give their % a boost and make a statement with a blow out win (albeit against Melbourne). Murphy and Judd both starting to look better after poor starts to the season and other than Nathan Jones heroic (but mostly solo) efforts, their is just too much class in the Carlton midfield and dangerous link players (Scotland, Carazzo, etc). Melbourne will try their best but they simply can't go with the Blues in any part of the park and may be another 100 beat down? (Carlton 100+ $4.00 @ Sportingbet).
Port Adelaide @ North Melbourne
3* Kangaroos -18.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
Write up to come...
Hawthorn @ Adelaide
2* Hawks -23.5 ($1.97 Pinnacle)
Crows averaging 90 points a game and with Tippett gone, Tex done for the season and the Porpoise out of form, who's gonna kick enough goals to keep pace with the volatile Hawks forward line? Rioli a massive out for the Hawks, but Sewell a possible massive in. Adelaide is usually known as a rock solid defensive unit, but this year it appears their only real strength is their midfield, and as good as Sloane, Thompson, and Dangerfied are, the Hawks engine room is still better.
Geelong @ Richmond
Will most likely be taking the Tigers +18 but not until I get an update on Cotchin (yes he's that important).Comment -
Waite confirmed in for Carlton. Demons losing not just Watts but Jamar and Rodan as well. All good news for the Carlton play.
Sewell confirmed in for Hawthorn. Adelaide dropping another forward in Petrenko.
2 x massive in's that strengthen my above plays.
Freemantle @ Gold Coast
2*Suns +15.5 ($1.92 Luxbet)
1*Suns m/l (+201 Pinnacle)
There are six key players for Freo. Pavlich, Sandilands, Mundy, McPharlin, Hill and Fyfe. Sandilands and Pav were already out, but with Fyfe's suspension and now the loss of Steven Hill, Freo are severely under manned. The loss of either Fyfe or Hill alone is massive, together against a strong Gold Coast midfield it might turn out to be just too much.
Suns will firm in now both ATS and the m/l.Comment -
Yeah I do have some thoughts mate. Bulls are a bit banged up, with both Deng and Gibson ill and Hinrich is highly doubtful for game 6 as well. Nets are better off with basically a full list, although Reggie is ill (but expected to play). I still believe the Nets are the better team overall, especially on the offensive end. They have all the stars (D-Will, Iso-Joe & Sideshow Bob) and the playoffs are when the true stars step up (something we haven't seen much of from Brooklyn yet). Most interestingly ALL the money is coming in on the Bulls and yet the line isn't moving. What does that tell you?
2* Nets m/l (+105 Pinnacle)
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Just like you, also think the Nets win. They have been the better team for most of the series and this should be 3-2 for them right now. I had the Bulls winning this actually, but not without Hinrich. I think the Nets can get the comeback down and I sprinkled some on them when they were down 3-1 winning the series. Kirk can barely walk apparently and even though is a warrior he shouldn't really play. The Nets have everything to get another win here.Comment -
Lots of value in the nets -1.5 @ 2.3
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First game they spanked them, although it was a lot to do with shooting the lights out. Second game they couldn't make a open shoot and still if not for one quarter they were right in there with the Bulls. Third game same story, could not buy a bucket, Bulls shot better and they were still close to pull out the comeback. Game 4 they dominate the whole second half and then Watson misses a wide open dunk. Everytime Chicago doesn't go lights out or the Nets ice cold, the Nets are up. They have been better in all four factor categories except for the shooting. Unless you think what happened in game 4 is normal and that the Bulls are the better shooting team, then I don't see how I'm clueless.
and btw, I had the Bulls winning the series 4-2 prior to the start.Comment -
sorry sando i disagree with you on the suns. i am not a big fan of freo at all but they will take care of suns im doing the -14.5. i think that is the easiest bet of the week. i agree with u on blues.
id also take the + in the port and kangaroos game. port are playing with great confidence at the moment- would be a good/ close game.
what do you think of the western bulldogs at the line at 55? i think thats a really good bet tooComment -
Adding...
Denver @ GS
1.5* Warriors -2 (-106 Pinnacle)
Left this play a bit late, obviously could have got the Warriors at a pk em yesterday, however if the Warriors do win and end up with a healthy lead in the 4th, then there is every chance it will be a blow out as the reality of another wasted season at Denver kicks in. Was very tempted to play the under 211 but even though you would expect these two to continue playing at a healthy tempo, the total seems spot on and not sure there's any value in it either way. Dubs to end this series today. They have been the better team all series and unlike Denver have still been competitive in the games they have lost.Comment -
Adding...
NBA Props
1* Joe Johnson Under 15.5 (-136 Pinnacle - risking 1.36 to win 1 due to the high juice)
NBA
0.5* Nets 1st Half m/l (+104)Comment -
Cash the Nets! I went large on this one. Thanks Sando.
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Great Day! 3-1 missing only my prop bet on iso-Joe by 2 points.
On to the AFL.
Big w/e coming.Comment -
4 goal line for the match tonight. I'm very tempted to pound collingwood. Thoughts?
Im just weighing up the pretty windy conditions today maybe they'll be sloppy in front of goal plus tip rat back for saints.Comment -
NRL
Wests @ Canterbury
2.5* Bulldogs -12 ($1.90 Bet 365)
AFL
St Kilda @ Collingwood
1* Pies 1-39 ($2.30 Sportsbet)Comment -
hey Sando, great picks today. Didnt make it in time to cash in on the nets but Warriors did the job.
Are you able to write something about your Magpies pick. I agree with you, i am just wondering what is the biggest threat to that 1-39 pick...Comment -
i know. Thanks, but no thanks mate. I dont like footy handicapping with such big margins. 1-39 looks pretty good since Pies are dealing with a lot of injuries themselves. I know Saints are not even decent but i dont see them being flogged by 40+ points here... Aniways good luck to you with that pickComment -
Just to let you know that Sam Kasiano is a confirmed starter for the Dogs.
Massive in for the doggies, the -12 looks much better.
Marshall is also back for the Tigers, but they are so short across the park to get close.
Overs looks good too now.Comment -
Sorry I just got home from work, 40 min drive in peak hour traffic. It's probably a bit late as the match starts in 10 minutes and I'm guessing you will already have placed your wager/s. Pies 3 wins this year have been tight, 3 goals against the Roos and Carlton and 6 against the Tigers, although the Tigers were in front at half time and it was just as much a Richmond fade out as it was the Pies turning it on. Watched the Saints and Swans match (twice) and the Saints were very impressive, Riewoldt with his best game in a year and big Kozzie was impressive in his first game back as well. The Pies are giving up over 100 points a game this year, the Saints will get their opportunities to hit the scoreboard. Saints have always lifted for the Pies and although the Saints are a far cry from the 2010 list, the Pies are far from the peak ATM as well. Still some big outs in the Pies list as evidenced by the 2 debutants suiting up tonight. The Saints will have taken a lot from last weeks game, as everyone was bagging them as done, finished, too old, the end of an era, etc.. But they lifted and played a blinder against the Swans (especially in the 2nd half) threatening late in a game they were never expected to win. Del Santo had a shocker and I expect him to bounce back hard tonight, he won't be tagged. I think Milne will come back with a vengeance, he loves playing against the Pies and I've got a prop bet on him to kick Over 2 goals. That's about all I've got time for, sorry mate. I expect the Pies will control the match throughout but never quite break the Saints, who should at least play the match out and maybe even win the 2nd half or last quarter?Comment -
No such thing as peak hour traffic in Adelaide.
Cloke and Lynch to dominate tonight.Comment
The fukk outa here.
