THE MONSTER MILE (Dover)

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  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51816

    #1
    THE MONSTER MILE (Dover)
    Alright fellas were are off to DOVER raceway this weekend for racing at the Famous Monster Mile. The best one mile racetrack that the series goes to in my personal opinion. All 3 series will be in action this weekend: the truck series on Fri, xfinity on Saturday, and the Cup race is Sunday afternoon. This race always provides plenty of racing action and strategy so it shouldn't be boring that's for sure. And this race is almost exclusively won the NASCAR's heavyweights. I've been reading through my notebooks and reviewing last few races all morning to refresh on recent history in preparation for tomorrow's opening odds.


    DOVER is a 1-mile concrete oval racetrack that has 24 degrees of banking in all of the turns and 9 degrees of banking in the straights.


    GOODLUCK this weekend!!!

  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51816

    #2
    Markets should post sometime this afternoon
    Comment
    • 5mike5
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 09-21-11
      • 51816

      #3
      6 drivers opened at +650

      good grief that's horrible
      Comment
      • 5mike5
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-21-11
        • 51816

        #4
        Take a chance on Kennseth (+1150)
        Comment
        • 5mike5
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-21-11
          • 51816

          #5
          Truex (+750)
          Comment
          • 5mike5
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 09-21-11
            • 51816

            #6
            Xfinity:

            jones (+550)
            allgahier (+1150)
            Comment
            • 5mike5
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 09-21-11
              • 51816

              #7
              Xfinity:

              parlay:
              allgahier>Sadler (-140)
              hones>Dillon (-130)
              open

              *maxed both single as well
              Comment
              • Optional
                Administrator
                • 06-10-10
                • 60708

                #8
                Why is Bubba Wallace almost favorite for Xfinity race??
                .
                Comment
                • 5mike5
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 09-21-11
                  • 51816

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Optional
                  Why is Bubba Wallace almost favorite for Xfinity race??
                  badlines for Xfinity and truck longshots. Not sure why they haven't corrected them yet. Was Same at Greek

                  xfinity bubba, tift, and gaghan

                  trucks its gragson and Ryan truex
                  Comment
                  • Optional
                    Administrator
                    • 06-10-10
                    • 60708

                    #10
                    Ah.

                    Thanks.
                    .
                    Comment
                    • shaunovery
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-15-07
                      • 18143

                      #11
                      Not much value

                      Taken

                      Truex +700
                      Jimmie +800

                      Looking for a longer shot thinking about kurt b
                      Comment
                      • 5mike5
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 09-21-11
                        • 51816

                        #12
                        Originally posted by shaunovery
                        Not much value

                        Taken

                        Truex +700
                        Jimmie +800

                        Looking for a longer shot thinking about kurt b
                        ueah there def isn't much value out there right now.

                        Hopefully after qualifying maybe it changes
                        Comment
                        • BigJay
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-14-12
                          • 3485

                          #13
                          Xfinity - Jones down to +400 pre-practice sessions. Larson +250. Blaney +350.
                          Would you definitely call Larson pre-race favorite? I'm thinking his odds could drop maybe close to in half if he qualifies in top 2, same with Blaney. Guessing Jones could maybe drop to +300. Do you like Larson (or any of them) at those odds for a small play thinking they may drop? Or would you just wait until qualifying at this point? Thinking Larson might be tough this week in Xfinity
                          Last edited by BigJay; 06-01-17, 08:04 PM.
                          Comment
                          • BigJay
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-14-12
                            • 3485

                            #14
                            Also, I know they don't qualify until tomorrow so will be keeping a close eye on that but Gragson looked awful good in practice today. If he and Bell qualify with speeds close to each either is Bell the guy to beat or is this Gragson kid the real deal? Haven't been able to pay too much attention to trucks this year. Will be looking out for your pick/s tomorrow in trucks. Thanks!
                            Comment
                            • the1yankee
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-29-16
                              • 1203

                              #15
                              Hello Miles, see you at 5:30 est!
                              Comment
                              • the1yankee
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-29-16
                                • 1203

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BigJay
                                Also, I know they don't qualify until tomorrow so will be keeping a close eye on that but Gragson looked awful good in practice today. If he and Bell qualify with speeds close to each either is Bell the guy to beat or is this Gragson kid the real deal? Haven't been able to pay too much attention to trucks this year. Will be looking out for your pick/s tomorrow in trucks. Thanks!
                                Gragson has been plain bad the last 3 truck races, usally v R Truex in 1v1. But in imho, gragson cant make proper adjustments during yellow flag pit stops, so cant get the best out of his car, tha week. Bell is solid and knows what hes doin, with a good car, that is. M5 im sure will respond with feedback
                                Comment
                                • BigJay
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-14-12
                                  • 3485

                                  #17
                                  Thanks for the feedback Yankee. Good stuff. I wish I could place a wager on if M5s was going to provide great feedback as well. That's what they used to call a given in my math class days.
                                  Comment
                                  • 5mike5
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-21-11
                                    • 51816

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by BigJay
                                    Also, I know they don't qualify until tomorrow so will be keeping a close eye on that but Gragson looked awful good in practice today. If he and Bell qualify with speeds close to each either is Bell the guy to beat or is this Gragson kid the real deal? Haven't been able to pay too much attention to trucks this year. Will be looking out for your pick/s tomorrow in trucks. Thanks!
                                    if I had to choose 1 or the other I'd go with Bell but gragson is probably gonna win this season being in KBM equipment. This is the 1st time in a longtime I hated the odds so much I haven't bet a winner or a h2h parlay for trucks yet. I just thought odds were real low. Hopefully that changes somewhat when qualifying is over b4 racetime. I doubt I play anything til odds post after qualifying.

                                    Homestly i dont study the lower series like I do cup, usually not at all. I just go based off the odds and me knowing the best guys win alot of the time. Trucks and xfinity have been an absolute CASH COW all season long and h2h plays have been insane at 21-3 since Daytona in the lower series. It seems to me most weeks the books just leave low hanging fruit so far, but I'm sure it will change. Haha
                                    Comment
                                    • 5mike5
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 09-21-11
                                      • 51816

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by BigJay
                                      Xfinity - Jones down to +400 pre-practice sessions. Larson +250. Blaney +350.
                                      Would you definitely call Larson pre-race favorite? I'm thinking his odds could drop maybe close to in half if he qualifies in top 2, same with Blaney. Guessing Jones could maybe drop to +300. Do you like Larson (or any of them) at those odds for a small play thinking they may drop? Or would you just wait until qualifying at this point? Thinking Larson might be tough this week in Xfinity
                                      idds have been bet down a lot so far. The lower 2 series I really have to hit openers a lot of the time. I usually play 2 guys and then I'll parlay the have them don't have him yet and I like them. I never bet a winner single +250 under, but that's just my strategy because I have more than 1 driver so the value is even less.

                                      Like this week week I got +550 jones and +1150 allgahier early. Which has paid off so far as each is much less now. I also liked Larson, but he opened at suck low odds it's just not much value there so I've known all week if I play him, I'll just open parlay him to gain more value. If u notice I do that a lot. Lol

                                      of You can still get jones +400 id take it. I do think he or Larson win the race...I think the best other option is allgahier because his odds are a lot worse. And don't forgot Blaney is in this either, but with him and Larson in it and at their odds, I won't take of them. So basically that's what choice I have left on the winner. And I've already taken my h2h plays this week off openers I posted above. Played them single and in a open parlay
                                      Comment
                                      • Optional
                                        Administrator
                                        • 06-10-10
                                        • 60708

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by BigJay
                                        Xfinity - Jones down to +400 pre-practice sessions. Larson +250. Blaney +350.
                                        Would you definitely call Larson pre-race favorite? I'm thinking his odds could drop maybe close to in half if he qualifies in top 2, same with Blaney. Guessing Jones could maybe drop to +300. Do you like Larson (or any of them) at those odds for a small play thinking they may drop? Or would you just wait until qualifying at this point? Thinking Larson might be tough this week in Xfinity
                                        Agree Larson won't get much better even if he qualifies outside first 3 rows. On the other hand I can't see him starting much worse than +200 even if he takes pole.
                                        .
                                        Comment
                                        • 5mike5
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-21-11
                                          • 51816

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Optional
                                          Agree Larson won't get much better even if he qualifies outside first 3 rows. On the other hand I can't see him starting much worse than +200 even if he takes pole.
                                          Totally agree
                                          Comment
                                          • 5mike5
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 09-21-11
                                            • 51816

                                            #22
                                            Trucks I played h2hs

                                            truex>Smith (-140)
                                            Briscoe>cindric(-140)
                                            open

                                            **maxed truex > smith (-140) single as well

                                            just dont like much on the win market. If any of these guys win their first race the odds just aren't good enough imo right now. Way Too much overreaction to practices with a lot of these guys. Will just wait til post qualifying to see what changes besides I'll parlay bell probably for sure
                                            Comment
                                            • the1yankee
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-29-16
                                              • 1203

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by BigJay
                                              Thanks for the feedback Yankee. Good stuff. I wish I could place a wager on if M5s was going to provide great feedback as well. That's what they used to call a given in my math class days.
                                              AGREE JAY. I seem to end up with similar picks to M5, but thats after practices, im payin .40 to .90 cents more. As he can really find the GEMS, b4 practice, which is key to great lines! Get on em when lines come out. Which is what makes him solid, like rock
                                              Comment
                                              • 5mike5
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 09-21-11
                                                • 51816

                                                #24
                                                My 2 early plays for Sunday qualified:

                                                Truex 2nd

                                                kennseth 4th
                                                Comment
                                                • 5mike5
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 09-21-11
                                                  • 51816

                                                  #25
                                                  TRUCKS

                                                  Sauter (+1000)
                                                  Rhodes (+1350)


                                                  Parlays:

                                                  truex>smith(-140)
                                                  beiscoe>cindric(-140)
                                                  open


                                                  bell wins the race (+150)
                                                  open


                                                  Single matchup:

                                                  truex>smith (-140). Maxed



                                                  i just didn't like very much for the win market today. Just threw out those 2 because their odds are really good imo. Really don't have as good a handle on the winner as usual for this race. Strange odds for the race so guess just see how it shakes out. Hopefully my matchups come through.


                                                  GOODLUCK!!!!

                                                  Comment
                                                  • the1yankee
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-29-16
                                                    • 1203

                                                    #26
                                                    Gl M. Took yur truex bet, parlayed with BURTON v gilleland
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 5mike5
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 09-21-11
                                                      • 51816

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by the1yankee
                                                      Gl M. Took yur truex bet, parlayed with BURTON v gilleland

                                                      Let's get this!!!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Optional
                                                        Administrator
                                                        • 06-10-10
                                                        • 60708

                                                        #28
                                                        Just got points bets on this one

                                                        Field +800 (for Chastain)
                                                        Burton +5000
                                                        Briscoe +1000

                                                        In that order.
                                                        .
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 5mike5
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 09-21-11
                                                          • 51816

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Optional
                                                          Just got points bets on this one

                                                          Field +800 (for Chastain)
                                                          Burton +5000
                                                          Briscoe +1000

                                                          In that order.
                                                          gl buddy.

                                                          Huge price on burton and gilly at racetime I thought but didn't want to play more
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Optional
                                                            Administrator
                                                            • 06-10-10
                                                            • 60708

                                                            #30
                                                            I like the Burton bet a lot. I bet he runs up front at very least.

                                                            Think Ross Chastain is going to 'shock' a few and be really strong too.
                                                            .
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BigJay
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-14-12
                                                              • 3485

                                                              #31
                                                              Good luck to all who have action on trucks. I forgot how early it started so got shut out. Definitely agree getting the early odds is the way to go. Too often I don't take advantage of that because I enjoy seeing how they look in practice but then end up paying the price with lower odds, sometimes much lower. Time to rethink that strategy. I'm pretty sure if Larson wins pole in Xfinity he'll actually be more like +175 or less which although he's in my mind definitely the favorite makes him tough to bet. Kind of like me passing on Blaney last week because of his post-qualifying odds although he definitely was my Xfinity pick I looked elsewhere because of odds and missed the winner.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BigJay
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-14-12
                                                                • 3485

                                                                #32
                                                                Saved money on trucks. Was just going to play Bell for a unit to win. Good advice about not playing the low odds on this one Mike. I guess subconsciously I listened by not getting home in time for the green flag
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Optional
                                                                  Administrator
                                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                                  • 60708

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The other 50/1 shot, Todd Giilliland, is looking mighty strong so far too.
                                                                  .
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 5mike5
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 09-21-11
                                                                    • 51816

                                                                    #34
                                                                    SAUTER (+1000) wins it!!!!!

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 5mike5
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 09-21-11
                                                                      • 51816

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by BigJay
                                                                      Saved money on trucks. Was just going to play Bell for a unit to win. Good advice about not playing the low odds on this one Mike. I guess subconsciously I listened by not getting home in time for the green flag
                                                                      Comment
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