How the heck did you get +12.5 seeing 4.5 everywhere
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Do you like storm +4.5 as well or top close to call?Comment -
Good Luck with it tonight mate, Im on The Sea Eagles courtesy of Multi which has Manly as the last leg paying 5.88. I can't see Manly losing at Home and Smith will start from the bench as far as i am aware.
I think Bellamy ould of marked this one don as a hard two point s at the start of the season. Slater out is a big one for me as I believe they need all three on the park to fire against the big guns, but i dont believe the Storm can win the comp anyway and am gaining more confidence each week with the Cowboys and Broncos to be the main contenders along ith Manly at this stage, If Manly are serious then they win tonight.Comment -
manly by 1 is good for me............Comment -
Manly 1-12 @$3.00 that's my play. GL allComment -
What a start by the storm awesome!!!Comment -
updated end: NRL Season 2012 61-54 +24.00
Round 15 6-5 (+3.57)
Great end to the round with a win to outsiders the Storm - pity the UNDER didn't cash otherwise we'd be up almost 5 units for the weekend.
Gl for the week
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Very well done mate .. keep up the good workComment -
NRL Season 2012 61-54 +24.00
Round 16
Play #1
Broncos vs Rabbitohs +6.5 2x 1.96
Not normally a fan of buying lines early especially when you have late exclusions or line up changes. However, we're getting extremely good value with a start of +6.5 which is too good to pass up on. Broncos have been patchy as of late and escaped losses against the Knights and Roosters - they will need to be on their game against the Rabbitohs. Inglis is a questionable inclusion and we won't get a 100% yes until Friday but the coach was quoted last week as saying he would "definitely be right for next week". Corey Parker could play but is also doubtful.. either way the Rabbitohs have won matches without Inglis, Merritt is a capable full back if needed. Dave Taylor will be fired up after State of Origin comments questioned his worth in the QLD side.
This will be a very close match but the Broncos stats give more credit to the side then is due - they were dominated last week by the Cowboys and narrowly escaped losses to the Roosters and Knights. This week will either be a full blown comeback or the beating that had to happen. Hopefully the latter.. Model has this at Broncos +6 which is tight but as suggested earlier I think the Broncos stats are blown out a little. Locking this in for 2x 1.96 Rabbitohs +6.5. Wouldn't go less than 6.. expect this to fall very fast if Inglis is 100% confirmed as a starter. GL
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It's down to +6 on my two books, but im on it, BOL sirComment -
Think Thaiday may be in as wellComment -
added:NRL Season 2012 61-54 +24.00
Round 16
Play #1
Broncos vs Rabbitohs +6.5 2x 1.96
Not normally a fan of buying lines early especially when you have late exclusions or line up changes. However, we're getting extremely good value with a start of +6.5 which is too good to pass up on. Broncos have been patchy as of late and escaped losses against the Knights and Roosters - they will need to be on their game against the Rabbitohs. Inglis is a questionable inclusion and we won't get a 100% yes until Friday but the coach was quoted last week as saying he would "definitely be right for next week". Corey Parker could play but is also doubtful.. either way the Rabbitohs have won matches without Inglis, Merritt is a capable full back if needed. Dave Taylor will be fired up after State of Origin comments questioned his worth in the QLD side.
This will be a very close match but the Broncos stats give more credit to the side then is due - they were dominated last week by the Cowboys and narrowly escaped losses to the Roosters and Knights. This week will either be a full blown comeback or the beating that had to happen. Hopefully the latter.. Model has this at Broncos +6 which is tight but as suggested earlier I think the Broncos stats are blown out a little. Locking this in for 2x 1.96 Rabbitohs +6.5. Wouldn't go less than 6.. expect this to fall very fast if Inglis is 100% confirmed as a starter. GL
Play #2
Dragons vs Titans UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Dragons are the worst attacking side in the comp - averaging only 15pts per game. This week they're up against one of the best defensive teams in the game but stats are deceiving for the Titans. Overall they let in 18pts but if you take out games where they let in late tries after leading by a large margin.. that figure drops down to 16pts. Model has this game at 32pts which is a lock. Both teams desperately need to win this game and the Dragons will be playing highly controlled football. Expect this game to be a grind out to see who lapses first in defence.
Rolling with 1x at 1.95. GLComment -
Adding:
Play #3
Broncos vs Rabbitohs OVER 43.5 1x 1.85
Waited for this total to drop a little but it hasn't happened.. nevertheless this game has strong indicators to go OVER 43 Both teams have kept their defense pretty tight but plenty of tries will be needed tonight for the winner. This should be a breakaway game and model has the total at 48 which is a lock. Both teams will be desperate to win and should play competitive football - Inglis and Parker confirmed gives this game more bite.
GL
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Dragons vs Titans under is probably my favourite play of the weekend across all codes and sports; I hope Pinnacle stops juicing it so badly (currently at -136) and just drops it half a point.
I'm iffy on the Broncos vs Rabbitohs game, I do lean towards the over but when the totals get that high one 10-15 minute cold stretch has you struggling to cover. Will probably play but for much smaller units.
BOL mate, let's smash those books!Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 61-54 +21.95
Round 16 1-2
Tough loss last night to the Rabbitohs who let in two late tries to shut down a play that was looking very solid in a low scoring match.
Some good plays on the board tonight. GL
Play #4
Cowboys vs Raiders UNDER 44.5 2x 1.95
Have this game as a solid UNDER based on both sides lack of scoring ability - averaging only 17pts per game. We would need to see a Raiders team out score the Cowboys for the OVER to hit and it shouldn't get there. Last time these teams played we got 28points with relatively the same sides. Model has this at 36pts which is a 2x lock. GL
Play #5
Panthers vs Eels UNDER 44.5 1x 1.95
These two sides let in the most points and on paper this is a solid OVER. However we're also looking at two of the worst attacking sides in the competition. These sides are almost level when it comes it recent stats over the past few rounds which suggests this could be a tight match. Defensively the Eels have improved slightly and this shouldn't be a Panthers wipe out as some punters are predicting. Model has this game as low scoring at 32 points which is normally a 2x lock but I'm not trusting these two teams with a hard earned 2x. So just rolling for 1x at 1.95. GL
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Adding 1x unit for eels / panthers UNDER
Good luck!Comment -
Cashed the under with you, got it @40.5 Live Betting.. Came down to golden point and needed a drop goal to cash, final score 18-19
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updated: NRL Season 2012 63-57 +21.85
Round 16 2-3
Play #6
Bulldogs vs Storm UNDER 41.5 3x 1.95
We have the two best defensive sides in the competition facing off today. Last time they met the total was only 18 and I have a similar figure set for today - 22 on the model. Without Billy Slater the Storm has remained competitive and the totals have been slightly lower. Can't ignore this for my first 3x play of the year on a total. This should be a competitive grind-away game of football and I suspect the total is higher than 36 or 38 today because of venue - Mackay in QLD. There could be a fatigue factor but I think it's negated because both sides will be in the same boat, unlike Townsville where the Cowboys have an advantage. No real injury worries for both sides apart from Billy Slater... rolling with 3x 1.95 GL
Play #7
Roosters vs Sea Eagles OVER 42.5 1x 1.95
Roosters have been great at giving up a lot of points fast and playing catch up football. Manly should carve up the Roosters left hand defense but the Roosters are still capable of putting on points - Tasi and Pearce will be up for big matches. Roosters lately have been giving up close to 26pts a game but still scoring 18pts (avg). This makes the OVER look very good.
Locking it in for 1x GL
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Can only find 40.5 now on most aussie books, still a good pick ?Comment -
My guesses would be:
Billy Slater is out - books haven't been as confident in Melbourne because of that. They are rating the Storm's defence lower because he's missing at the back.
Fatigue factor is more pronounced in Mackay with higher temps / humididty. Books probably assume both teams won't handle it well. Neutral venue for both teams might also be a factor.
Willing to discount both of those reasons because I think there is a stack of value.. no major changes eitherComment -
BOL That Guy.
No plays myself but I like the plays you've got there, especially the Eagles Roosters Over.Comment -
Excellent cash Thatguy for the Melbourne vs Canterbury game. The conditions and persistent defence by Canterbury made it an easy under. These two teams are definitely going to see each other in September, they're both brilliant.
Canterbury's line defence and retro tactic of ball playing forwards have changed the game in my opinion, they're going to give this Premiership a massive shake. Ben Barbar's try - Wow.
Keep up the good work mate, love your picks.Comment -
That Guy
You nailed that Storm/Bulldogs Under!
Glad I tailed.
14 at the half and only 10 in 2nd half.
Congrats on your 3x.
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Great work TG, Unlucky with the Raiders under, as we knew they would not score too many but once the Cows had scored 30 in the first half it was always goingto be hard to stay under. Raiders defence is pathetic, a few of the tries that the Cows scored were players running over the try line without a hand being laid on them and that was from the forwards not backs streaking away. Storm and Bulldogs defence was outstnading as you predicted, Barba is a freak, Poor Meninga has a dillema Barba, Bowen or Inglis....
Anyway great to see your big play hit ....Comment -
Roosters 50 to 1 for least season wins a month or so ago.....they are firming by the minute ,another very weak defensive outfit.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 65-57 +25.65
Round 16 4-3
Great day on the books with the big 3x play cashing on the Storm / Bulldogs UNDER and Roosters / Sea Eagles going way over as predicted. One more play to go for Monday night football to round off a pretty good week.
GL!Comment
