Afl 2012

**brettels** · 04-08-12, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by maroona

That seems low for these 2 teams, only reason I can see is the weather forecast, 90% chance of rain and some hail and strong winds, might have to wait until a little closer to see how it pans out

Good point, i hadn't checked that when i posted before. As you said, lets see how it pans out by around 2-2:45pm ! Can still go over in the wet, but if its belting down with hail and wind, under should be safe as long as the total doesn't move. Whats your lean maroona? I'm stuck with my early play of hawks -10.5 and still confident.

**Domestic** · 04-08-12, 09:52 AM

I would expect the total for the Cats/Hawks game to open up at about 185.5. I'm playing the over no matter what it opens up at.

**maroona** · 04-08-12, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Good point, i hadn't checked that when i posted before. As you said, lets see how it pans out by around 2-2:45pm ! Can still go over in the wet, but if its belting down with hail and wind, under should be safe as long as the total doesn't move. Whats your lean maroona? I'm stuck with my early play of hawks -10.5 and still confident.

Line out to -12.5 now but I still like it, might play that instead of a total, things have settled down a bit now after a crazy week 1 and overs are not hitting with the ease they did then, its a shame GWS and the suns can't be more competitive, makes those games difficult to assess from a betting perspective, see what happens with the weather tomorrow but most likely stick with Hawthorn, they are the real deal this year, look very hard to beat..

**brettels** · 04-08-12, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by maroona

Line out to -12.5 now but I still like it, might play that instead of a total, things have settled down a bit now after a crazy week 1 and overs are not hitting with the ease they did then, its a shame GWS and the suns can't be more competitive, makes those games difficult to assess from a betting perspective, see what happens with the weather tomorrow but most likely stick with Hawthorn, they are the real deal this year, look very hard to beat..

I just had that feeling there was an arrangement with sydney in the first round not to absolutely flog them! Then a side like north beat them by more than 100 points, pretty evidential.

Are you in melbourne? hows it looking? the ausbooks still haven't got any totals up. I wrote them last night about how embarrassed they should be that a UK book can have them up 24 hrs or more before they do, they might get there shit together in that department as i'm 3 from 3 in getting things changed at 1 book.

**maroona** · 04-08-12, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by brettels

I just had that feeling there was an arrangement with sydney in the first round not to absolutely flog them! Then a side like north beat them by more than 100 points, pretty evidential.

Are you in melbourne? hows it looking? the ausbooks still haven't got any totals up. I wrote them last night about how embarrassed they should be that a UK book can have them up 24 hrs or more before they do, they might get there shit together in that department as i'm 3 from 3 in getting things changed at 1 book.

Nah i'm in QLD, but Melbourne's not looking too good - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml#skip , books seem very cautious with AFL totals, think they've been caught out a few times putting it up too high with bad weather around, be interesting to see what they bring out todays at, i'm thinking around 175-180, good on you for writing to them, might get some action, which one did you write to?

**brettels** · 04-08-12, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by maroona

Nah i'm in QLD, but Melbourne's not looking too good - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml#skip , books seem very cautious with AFL totals, think they've been caught out a few times putting it up too high with bad weather around, be interesting to see what they bring out todays at, i'm thinking around 175-180, good on you for writing to them, might get some action, which one did you write to?

Sportsbet, wrote to them about PYOL then suddenly they put them up, wrote to them about line/over&under doubles then suddenly they are up, wrote to them about how they were excluding tennis challenger matches from multibets(they were the only ones doing that) and now we can multi those too. So now i wrote them about the totals, hopefully this changes as well. I really think having them up earlier will be more profitable for the aussie books long term.

**maroona** · 04-08-12, 08:07 PM

Yeah sportsbet are good though, like the $1.95 lines and they are one of the first with totals out, its a innovative product they have so i'm not surprised that they would listen and act on their customers suggestions

**Lookingtostart** · 04-08-12, 08:15 PM

I'm with Hawks -12.5, I like the over 178.5 on Bet365, even if it's wet (not too wet).

So everyone's with the Hawks to cover?!

**MatI** · 04-08-12, 08:17 PM

BOM radar is making it look worse than it really is. Unless more develops suddenly, we have seen the worst of it here and it is dry at the moment on the roads. MCG grass might be a little slick to begin with but wind should fix that up too. Worst factor at the moment is the wind, its pretty consistent at the moment and is gusting at times. Might be tricky if it doesnt settle down a little.

**brettels** · 04-08-12, 08:25 PM

yep on the hawks to cover

still waiting for more totals to come out, then i will consider a play or just stay with the hawks.

**Pride** · 04-08-12, 08:27 PM

hawks are too strong

**brettels** · 04-08-12, 10:05 PM

sportsbet, centrebet, sportingbet all have O/U 179.5 and all the same odds 1.88

TAB O/U 180.5 @1.87

Not playing the total, staying with the hawks -10.5 i got through the week.

**brettels** · 04-09-12, 02:50 AM

Should have played the over

Not a good week overall. Will study hard for round 3.

**aussieH** · 04-09-12, 03:21 AM

I played the. Under. I get sucked in to bad weather but the mcg dries quick and is shielded from the wind more than you think

Books are very reluctant to post the under over until a couple of hours before the bounce this year. Very frustrating

**sumwon** · 04-10-12, 09:23 AM

Any advice on whether this would be considered a "safe" multi?

Essendon -58.5 @ 1.92
Richmond -5.5 @ 1.35
West Coast +37 halftime @ 1.27
Brisbane +69.5 @ 1.23

with total @ 4.05

**Lookingtostart** · 04-10-12, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by sumwon

Any advice on whether this would be considered a "safe" multi?

Essendon -58.5 @ 1.92
Richmond -5.5 @ 1.35
West Coast +37 halftime @ 1.27
Brisbane +69.5 @ 1.23

with total @ 4.05

I would take Richmond out just to be safe.

**MatI** · 04-11-12, 12:08 AM

No love for Collingwood it seems. Carlton ML already down to 1.82 @ Centrebet. And will be moving more now that Jamison & Duigan look to be back in for the Blues. I say get it now before it loses more value.

**brettels** · 04-11-12, 01:17 AM

I have faith in the tigers to cover the 24.5 line but will i play it? May just put the ML in a multi of some sort.

Don't underestimate collingwood, feels like underestimating geelong on the weekend. hmmmm bring on the total for that game only.

Essendon like to smash the suns, didn't they get 99 points in the first quarter against them last year? -58.5 seems generous.

West coast can easily cover -105.5 as interstate teams aren't going to be as nice as sydney, north are proof.

Hawks -29.5 against adelaide I like that but this is another one of those games to get a real measure on where adelaide is really at.

geelong, another multi booster at the ML, -31.5, is the champ of the twins going to belittle his brother?

**Coopertrooper** · 04-11-12, 01:28 AM

Agree with brettels, I'm a pies fan and I think we'll be much better than the previous 2 weeks, we're replacing our bottom 2-3 players with good quality players (Maxwell, BJ, Wellingham). Don't write us off in this one.

West Coast over will be good value if it isn't too high, I'll be busy and will probably miss it by the time it opens though :|

**Domestic** · 04-11-12, 02:44 AM

I'm not willing to be against Collingwood either and I'll wait for that spread to hopefully increase a bit before placing a unit on them.

**brettels** · 04-11-12, 06:38 AM

I'm having a guess of the total over/under for fridays carlton vs collingwood match.

198.5 - 204.5

**aussieH** · 04-11-12, 07:44 AM

Buckley will be keen to play defensively I think so the under could be the best play. He mentioned last week he was unhappy with their defensive pressure. I think your total is about right

**nocode1** · 04-11-12, 08:56 AM

Hi guys, had a couple a week away with the girlfriend so didn't get to post anything last week although I did hit my multi

Hard week this week but I'm going with this multi for 1 unit

Carlton +23.5
St.kilda+23.5
port + 50.5
north +57.5

$2.08

I also like the Geelong-north total on Sunday as long as its not over 204.5

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 01:00 AM

For under or over nocode1?

**Domestic** · 04-12-12, 01:14 AM

(Deleted)

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 01:17 AM

I don't think you can promote like that domestic, just in case confirm that you can or remove it to not get infracted or whatever they choose to do. All good if you can just don't want to see you get banned.

**Domestic** · 04-12-12, 01:21 AM

Yeah you're right, deleted it. Just wanted people to be aware of it though, because it was a no strings attached bonus that you only had to rollover once. Thanks for the heads up.

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 01:24 AM

You can let people know but i think just putting the code out there might be infraction-able but i could be wrong it might only apply to links(I've done that before) ! Ask if you can shari or someone will let you know! if you can put it back up

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 03:59 AM

Teams are out!

Carlton changes seem even but the Collingwood In's are much better.

**nocode1** · 04-12-12, 04:16 AM

Over in the Geelong north game brettels

**Crowing Capers** · 04-12-12, 06:44 AM

Freo at home -44.5 is a gift.
They Beat Geelong round 1 and come home hard v Sydney last week on a ground that doesn't suit losing by couple goals.
Looking at the lions , yeah they get Browny back but First up Glass will hav him covered. They beat a woeful melbourne team and then cop a pounding from the blues at home. 45 points in is the right odds!
We all know how well the cats played last week and this Freo mob beat them the week before.
Get on in a big way , this game is going Freo 60 plus..

another lean is Eagles -105.5. Think they cover easy knowing % could decide where in the top 4 they finish and how important home finals are to them.
Big weekend coming let's get em

**Gee** · 04-12-12, 05:25 PM

These lines are moving a lot more than they usually do this week.

Everyone seems to love Carlton. I'm not completely sold on that. The line is moving because of a pretty easy start to the season for them. Collingwood came into the season underdone and will only get better. They are a class side and I'd struggle to bet against them. I definitely won't be taking the Pies in this spot either.

I haven't seen a total yet, but I'll play over at anything less than 200-204 range.

**Domestic** · 04-12-12, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by Gee

These lines are moving a lot more than they usually do this week.

Everyone seems to love Carlton. I'm not completely sold on that. The line is moving because of a pretty easy start to the season for them. Collingwood came into the season underdone and will only get better. They are a class side and I'd struggle to bet against them. I definitely won't be taking the Pies in this spot either.

I haven't seen a total yet, but I'll play over at anything less than 200-204 range.

My thoughts exactly on both the head to head and total.
Hoping I can get an even juicier ML/spread before the first bounce for the Magpies.

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 09:20 PM

Getting frustrated with no totals posted anywhere yet.

**brettels** · 04-12-12, 09:31 PM

getting on the 221+ @6.5 (TAB) in the meantime

this is slow even for 365 in regards to bringing out the over/under right?