MiddleMan's Magical Middles

[MiddleMan]

Event: Half Time handicap
Pick: New Orleans -6.0 and Atlanta +7.0
Odds: $2.05 and $1.87
Agencies: Pinnacle and Sportsbet
Stake: 4 units and 5 units
Analysis: The Sportsbet line here is very generous, so recommended stakes have been offered accordingly.
If New Orleans leads by 8+ points at Half Time, a loss of 0.8 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by 1-5 points, it's a draw, or Atlanta leads at Half Time, a profit of 0.35 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by six points at Half Time, a profit of 4.35 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by seven points at Half Time, a profit of 3.20 units is the result


Event: Quarter Time Handicap
Pick: New Orleans -0.5 and Atlanta +3.0
Odds: $1.91 and $1.89
Agencies: Pinnacle and Sportsbet
Stake: 5 units and 5 units
Analysis: A very good middle is being offered here.
If Atlanta leads or it's a draw at Quarter Time, a loss of 0.55 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by 4+ points at Quarter Time, a loss of 0.45 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by three points at Quarter Time, a profit of 4.55 units is the result
If New Orleans leads by one or two points at Quarter Time, a profit of 9 units is the result

In order to profit 9 units in this market, the most likely outcome would be a one point lead by New Orleans, which is achieved by the Saints scoring a Touchdown conversion (7 points), with Atlanta kicking two field goals (6 points).

[micase]

Nice find, I'm on a few player performances for the game, I will try to add my units risked to indicate how confident I am in the middle, 0.5 will be the minimum play, 1 unit the standard play and anything above that a damn good play!

Tony Gonzalez Receiving Yards
Risking 0.55 units to win 8.8 units
U61.5 $1.87 (Sportsbet)
O50.5 $1.91 (Betvictor)

Next one is not a middle but looks like good value to me,

Roddy White Receiving Yards
Risking 2 units
U70.5 $1.91 (Betvictor)

He is playing injured, has a highest yardage in a game this year of 45 yards (has played 9 games) and even against the Saints I'm willing to take it on, Bet365 has him at OU of 58.5 and Sportsbet at 64.5

[Donkey]

Great work guys, keep it up. The Roddy White prop seemed too easy.

I also had a Steve Jackson rushing yards middle between 41.5 and 53.5 but he ended up on 63. I don't usually play middles because I'm usually at work when player props get released, but if I find some in future I'll post here.

[micase]

Great work guys, keep it up. The Roddy White prop seemed too easy.

I also had a Steve Jackson rushing yards middle between 41.5 and 53.5 but he ended up on 63. I don't usually play middles because I'm usually at work when player props get released, but if I find some in future I'll post here.

Yes the bet did seem too easy, I was looking all over for some piece of info suggesting he was going to have a big game but it wasn't going to come. Knowing there are a few people lurking around I'll post a few more plays in here. Not sure where you are located but sportsbet usually have their player performance markets up in the afternoon/ night Sydney time the day before the game while most of the other books seem to put them up a few hours before.

[MiddleMan]

Good to have you back Middleman, there isn't the man love that plagues Sando's thread but we'll get there. I have been finding without much difficulty 15-20 NBA/NFL player props every week and when you're regularly getting 17-1 (or more) odds on the money your risking I'm surprised there isn't more interest (easy money in my oppinion.)

The books I've been using are Bet365, Betvictor, TAB, Luxbet, Centrebet, Sportsbet, Betstar (for NFL), any that I'm missing? They usually follow one another but you do get the odd numbers that make us the money.

I've just signed up to Betvictor. I need to use an odds converter calculator to get used to their odds, otherwise they seem OK. Any problem being Australian? Do withdrawals come through OK?

[micase]

I've just signed up to Betvictor. I need to use an odds converter calculator to get used to their odds, otherwise they seem OK. Any problem being Australian? Do withdrawals come through OK?

You can change the odds to decimal with a button in the top right from memory.

No problems with being Australian, haven't made a withdrawal yet but they are a huge company so you shouldn't face any issues.

No poli deposit option unless through Skrill which was disappointing.

[MiddleMan]

You can change the odds to decimal with a button in the top right from memory.

No problems with being Australian, haven't made a withdrawal yet but they are a huge company so you shouldn't face any issues.

No poli deposit option unless through Skrill which was disappointing.

That would explain why my account has just been suspended, because I made a deposit with POLi and ended up getting an email from Skrill saying until ID has been verified, my account is temporarily suspended. I was thinking this is some sort of mistake, because I have never used Skrill. I'm sure I clicked on POLi??

[MiddleMan]

Fiji V USA rugby 7s
Pick: Fiji -15.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
Pick: USA +18.5 @ $1.90 w Centrebet
Stake: 3.5 units and 3 units


Note: Topsport has the USA line at +19.5, but this is only paying $1.80, so there is more value to be had at $1.90 with a slightly inferior line.

[MiddleMan]

South Africa v Kenyaaaaa

Souths -13.5 @ $1.90 w Sportsbet
Kenya +17.5 @ $1.90 w Centrebet


This is a very good middle, considering it allows for three key line of 14, 15 and 17. Those results consist of a win by two tries and two conversions, three unconverted tries, and one converted plus two non converted tries.

[aussieH]

Both lines are to set 17.5 now at Centrebet and Sportstbet. GL

[micase]

Tom Brady Passing

U310.5 yards $1.87 TAB
O270.5 yards $1.85 Betstar

40 yard spread, load up!

[MiddleMan]

Tom Brady Passing

U310.5 yards $1.87 TAB
O270.5 yards $1.85 Betstar

40 yard spread, load up!

Yep, nice one.

Also a 20 yard spread between TAB and Bet Victor on Peyton Manning.

[micase]

Yep, nice one.

Also a 20 yard spread between TAB and Bet Victor on Peyton Manning.

Sadly my account has been closed by Betvictor, I lasted 19 days. See how long you can last. Sportsbet have cut my limits to 100 dollars on NBA player props as well.

[MiddleMan]

LOL $100. That is the first time you have been limited. You get limited twice.

The first time they allow you to win up to $345 (this is for all new accounts and those who are yet to be limited). Then they limit you a little (which you have been now). Then they will limit you for a final time, allowing you to only win $6 on props.

19 days? WOW! What was their reason? Did they send you an email? You said you hadn't made a withdrawal, so how would they limit you without doing that?

[MiddleMan]

Luxbet have the following around the wrong way

Geno Smith's line is 240.5 passing yards
Ryan Tannehill's line is 182.5 passing yards

Load up on the overs for Tannehill and the unders for Smith

[micase]

Do a quick google of 'Betvictor closed my account' and they go into detail in threads there. I wouldn't expect to stick around that long with them but you might as well hit them hard while you can

[OZnBa Fan]

I have also been linted with sportsbet, there pricks

[aussieH]

Looks like they have taken those lines down

[aussieH]

Larmar miller


over 42.5 at sortsbet

under55.5 at centrebet

[MiddleMan]

Jimmy Graham:

Over 78.5 w Lux
Under 88.5 w Betvictor

[thecattery12]

Been limited by Sportingbet now

I think my middling days are over.

[MiddleMan]

Joe Johnson over 18.0 pts @ $1.87 w Luxbet
Joe Johnson over 18.5 pts @ $2 w TAB
Joe Johnson under 19.5 pts @ $1.91 w Betvictor

Andre Bargnani over 15.5 pts @ $1.91 w Betvictor
Andre Bargnani under 16.0 @ $2.15 w Luxbet

Deandre Hopkins under 62.5 receiving yards @ $1.87 w Lux
Deandre Hopkins over 50.5 receiving yards @ $1.91 w Betvictor

[micase]

Joe Johnson over 18.0 pts @ $1.87 w Luxbet
Joe Johnson over 18.5 pts @ $2 w TAB
Joe Johnson under 19.5 pts @ $1.91 w Betvictor

Andre Bargnani over 15.5 pts @ $1.91 w Betvictor
Andre Bargnani under 16.0 @ $2.15 w Luxbet

Deandre Hopkins under 62.5 receiving yards @ $1.87 w Lux
Deandre Hopkins over 50.5 receiving yards @ $1.91 w Betvictor

Just keep rubbing it in mate with those Betvictor lines, no wonder they close accounts so quickly. I'm looking for Brook Lopez to score exactly 20 points, managed to middle/ arb that although I changed the lines at Centrebet and Bet365.

Opportunities have dried up a little.

[MiddleMan]

I probably only post 10% Of my plays here, but the amount of middles I have been missing by one or two points lately is disgusting.

i have hit a couple though.

[micase]

I probably only post 10% Of my plays here, but the amount of middles I have been missing by one or two points lately is disgusting.

i have hit a couple though.

Brook Lopez was sitting on the bench with 7 minutes to play on 20 points, Nets down by 30+ points and Jason Kidd decided to put him on. Instead of a handy $600 collect I scored 15 cents profit. They deserve all the injuries they get if he's willing to put his best remaining healthy player on the court in that situation.

[MiddleMan]

Brook Lopez was sitting on the bench with 7 minutes to play on 20 points, Nets down by 30+ points and Jason Kidd decided to put him on. Instead of a handy $600 collect I scored 15 cents profit. They deserve all the injuries they get if he's willing to put his best remaining healthy player on the court in that situation.

Was that this one?

Market: Brook Lopez Points
Pick: Over 19.5 and Under 20.5
Odds: $1.91 and $2.10
Agency:Centrebet and Bet365
Stake: 2.5 and 2
Analysis:
If Lopez scores 19 points or less, we lose 0.3 units
If Lopez scores 20 points we make +4.475 units
If Lopez scores 21 points or more, we make 0.275 units

[MiddleMan]

You were punched in the c*nt and I was kissed on the dick.

Bargnani's last shot was credited as a three pointer on the court, but at the next timeout it was reviewed and he was given a two. It means I hit my middle. WOW!

The exact same thing happened last Saturday with my Lebron middle (over 26.5 and under 28.5). He was credited with a two, but five minutes later the review gave him a three and he ended up on 27 points.

[micase]

Was that this one?

Market: Brook Lopez Points
Pick: Over 19.5 and Under 20.5
Odds: $1.91 and $2.10
Agency:Centrebet and Bet365
Stake: 2.5 and 2
Analysis:
If Lopez scores 19 points or less, we lose 0.3 units
If Lopez scores 20 points we make +4.475 units
If Lopez scores 21 points or more, we make 0.275 units

Yeah that's the one, I was watching the game on and off thinking I had it in the bag (as much as you can expect anything in the NBA). I was freerolling on the bet though so all it served was to move a bit of money from one bookmaker to another.

Any idea what time all these player performance markets get released in the morning? I know sportsbet put them out the previous night (Sydney time), Luxbet and Bet365 seem to put theirs out some time between midnight at 6am and centrebet usually put them out around 7am or later. Some of the lines that they start with seem to offer the most value yet I always miss out on them.

[MiddleMan]

Rugby Sevens... NZ v USA

NZ -29.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
USA +33.5 @ $1.95 w Unibet

[MiddleMan]

Alright. So no matter what the outcome, I make $5 here, which is already good news considering I needed to turn money over. If Radnicki wins this by exactly seven points, I win both bets and profit $1086. Considering seven point margins are the most popular outcomes in Basketball, this is a very good situation for me. Basically free riding for a nice profit.

$500 on Radnicki - 6.5 @ $2.16 w Pinnacle
$575 on Krka +7.5 @ $1.88 w Topsport

[MiddleMan]

....

[MiddleMan]

$57 Derozan under 22.5 points @ $1.87 w TAB
$57 Derozan over 20.5 points @ $1.87 w Lux
$7.41 lost if middle doesn't hit
$99.18 profit if he scores 21 or 22
Success rate = 2/31 this year (6.5%)
Break even rate = 7.47%


$57 Wall over 20.5 points @ $1.87 w Lux
$57 Wall under 22.5 points @ $1.87 w TAB
$7.41 lost if middle doesn't hit
$99.18 profit if he scores 21 or 22
Success rate = 2/30 this year (7%)
Break even rate = 7.47%


$222 Durant under 34.5 points @ $1.87 w TAB
$200 Durant over 32.5 points @ $1.95 w Unibet
$6.86 loss if he scores under 32.5
$32 loss if he scores over 34.5
$383.14 profit if he scores 33 or 34
Success rate = 6/33 this year (18%)
Break even rate = 5%


$150 Anthony under 29.5 points @ $1.87 w TAB
$150 Anthony over 26.5 points @ $1.85 w Unibet
$19.50 loss if he scores under 26.5
$22.50 loss if he scores over 29.5
$258 profit if he scores 27, 28 or 29
Success rate = 6/29 this year (21%)
Break even rate = 8%


$200 Lawson under 20.5 points @ $1.87 w TAB
$200 Lawson over 17.5 points @ $1.85 w Unibet
$26 loss if he scores under 17.5
$30 loss if he scores over 20.5
$344 profit if he scores 18, 19 or 20
Success rate = 8/30 this year ($27%)


$60 Rogers under 295.5 passing yards @ $1.85 w TAB
$57 Rogers over 270.5 passing yards @ $1.87 w TAB
$6 loss if he records under 270.5
$10.41 loss if he records over 290.5
$100.59 profit if he records 271-295 passing yards
Success rate = 2/9 this year (22%)
Break even rate = 8%

[thecattery12]

Nice hit on Lawson

[MiddleMan]

Yeah, thanks. I was stoked with that. Also on the five middles I didn't hit, I didn't lose much. I was more confident in Durant, Anthony and Rogers all going under their lines. I lost a bit on Carmelo. Fancy only scoring four points after quarter time.

[MiddleMan]

$110 John Wall over 19.5 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$100 John Wall under 21.5 pts @ $1.90 w TAB
$6.50 loss if he scores over 21.5 pts
$20 loss if he scores under 19.5 pts
$183.50 profit if he scores 20 or 21 pts
Success rate = 6/32 this year (18.75%)
Break even rate = 7.23%


$60 Blake Griffin under 23.5 pts @ $1.90 w TAB
$60 Blake Griffin over 21.5 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$6 loss if he scores under 21.5 pts
$9 loss if he scores over 23.5 pts
$105 profit if he scores 22 or 23 pts
Success rate = 5/37 (13.51%)
Break even rate = 7.14%


$80 Steph Curry under 24.5 pts @ $1.87 w TAB
$80 Steph Curry over 22.0 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$10.40 loss if he scores under 22.0 pts
$12 loss if he scores over 24.5 pts
$69.40 profit if he scores 22 pts
$137.40 profit if he scores 23 or 24 pts
Success rate: 8/34 (23.53%)
Break even rate: 8.88%


$60 Paul George under 23.5 pts @ $1.87 w TAB
$60 Paul George over 21.5 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$6 loss if he scores under 21.5 pts
$9 loss if he scores over 23.5 pts
$105 profit if he scores 22 or 23 pts
Success rate = 4/34 (11.76%)
Break even rate = 7.14%


$60 Tony Parker under 19.5 pts @ $1.87 w TAB
$60 Tony Parker over 17.5 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$6 loss if he scores under 17.5 pts
$9 loss if he scores over 19.5 pts
$105 profit if he scores 18 or 19 pts
Success rate = 3/32 (9.38%)
Break even rate = 7.14%


$150 Dwight Howard under 21.5 pts @ $1.80 w TAB
$150 Dwight Howard over 18.0 pts @ $1.85 w Unibet
$30 loss if he scores under 18.0 pts
$22.50 loss if he scores over 21.5 pts
$247.50 profit if he scores 19, 20 or 21 pts
$120 profit if he scores 18 pts
Success rate: 5/35 (14.29%)
Break even rate: 11.48%