Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

Good to see some good AFL discussion going on!

Freo are still a decent ML chance, yes. But at -37.5, probably not.

Cooper: Dockers are playing the Saints! I think if you lose an EF because you are tired from travel, it makes sense to avoid that the next season if you can. Ultimately, 3rd or 4th makes no difference. It isn't about disrespect, because I don't think they are too worried about losing.

The difference between 3rd and 4th isn't the thing that gets me, it is just that they still have a shot at 2nd (albeit slim that the lions do beat the cats) If they couldn't finish 2nd, I would not have expected it, but given all the hoopla over a final being at simonds stadium I would have thought Freo would have given themselves a shot at a home final.

I think part of it also stems from me seeing resting players as being a bit overrated. 2-3 resting is fine. When they rest 5+ I just scratch my head.

Not sure what to make of the game with those line-ups, but freo giving away less than a goal (even with a second-string line-up) against the lowly saints is still very low!

Tonight's line out to -19.5, got a good line even with the initial 3 point drift. Will look at the rest of this weekend's games soon, won't have too many plays but there are a couple I'm considering

[Gee]

If it is going to affect their stamina in the finals, then you'd have to wager on resting players compared to the possibility of Brisbane can get past Geelong (and the advantages of 2nd). The way Lyon sets up structurally, I'm definitely not wagering against Freo. No play here.

Line jumped huge when Tippet went out! Looks like fools gold though (not your play - the ppl that jumped on due to the tippet out). Swannies up and about, but Hawks having moments too. Awesome Friday night footy!

[Coopertrooper]

Difference in opinion on it I guess. I know that there is a fair bit of debate out there about what a reasonable number of players to rest is coming into the finals, even in complete dead rubber games.
　
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Really had to sweat tonight's game out, with the hawks missing some easy ones and the swans kicking everything. Always too close for comfort when any late score will sink you! I agree that the line move after Tippett was out was too much. I've said before that only Ablett makes me move lines in my head by a goal or more, with Tippett's form I would have said 2-3 points was about it, not the 6 points it drifted.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Brisbane QT +15.5 (CENTREBET), $1.90 X 3
　
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Have been waiting to see where this game went, with most money coming for the cats at the line. Most places have the line out to 57.5 or 59.5 for the match. I like the lions to come out and have a real crack here. Their season comes down to this game and they MUST win to try and sneak into the finals, so they have to come out fired up. The cats will know it, and will need to turn up early if they want to win this game, although it is fairly inconsequential to them. Some books have played their hand here, with sportsbet offering up 12.5 ($1.90 each way) for the first quarter, with 13.5 in the second and 15.5 for the last 2 quarters. Normally the books are happy to keep the number in line with their overall line and just move the odds, but they too are expecting Brisbane to turn up early. Luxbet have it at +13.5 paying $1.88, suggesting there is a bit of money for this at that number too. So to get a massive 15.5 with Centrebet at $1.90 is massive. I really like this play and with a great number and going with 3 units

[OZnBa Fan]

Nice play mate ill think you will find that the lions have started well in there last couple of games and there 2nd halves have been poor, I don't trust the lions at all but ill be praying they can sneak a couple of goals early to kick the line home

[OZnBa Fan]

Great play mate, thought we were gonna get stiffed with that breeze but they held on, great find on getting 15.5

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks mate, can't believe it even got close. Odd game, with Brisbane being robbed of the win from a shocking umpiring decision! Also can't believe Port choked such a good lead, Carlton look horrible but somehow get to play a final. Who knows what number will go up there, it could be massive, they appear to be cannon fodder.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Hawthorn -11.5, $1.92 X 2 WON

Play #2 - Brisbane QT +15.5 (CENTREBET), $1.90 X 3 WON

Round 23: 2-0 +4.54 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Gold Coast/GWS Under 200.5 (Centrebet), $1.90 X 1.5

Both sides have been showing real signs of fatigue in recent matches, but both will want a win to round out the season, so I strongly feel that the defensive efforts should be good enough to keep this tight enough. Neither side will have fast zipping attacks for the entire day, so this game could get a bit boring and lazy. Barring the Gold Coast blowing GWS out, I think the under is the play for 1.5 units.

Play #4 - Collingwood -8.5 (Centrebet), $1.91 X 1

The fact that the roos now do not have the extra edge of trying to play for 8th has to bring this game back into the pies favour. This centrebet line hasn't moved and represents some very good value on the pies, who are looking to go into the finals with some form (which not many sides are doing) and who still should be going for a big win to at least attempt attaining 5th spot. We saw how silly Freo looked with the lions being robbed against the cats their only saviour yesterday, Collingwood don't usually attack games like that. They don't like to give an inch, so they'll be out to have a good hit out today.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Gold Coast/GWS Under 200.5 (Centrebet), $1.90 X 1.5 LOSS

Play #4 - Collingwood -8.5 (Centrebet), $1.91 X 1 LOSS

GWS woeful in defence, causing this one to sneak over, while the roos played with as much hunger as if they were alive for finals still, with Collingwood taking it fairly easy in the match and looking to next week. Both of them surprising results to me, takes the edge off a good weekend.

Round 23: 2-2 +2.04 units


YTD: 59 -87 +17.70 units


Units risked: 184.5
ROI: +9.59%

So the Home and Away season ends with a result of +17.70 units. I hope to push this back over 20 units by the end of the finals series, which I'll be fairly happy with. Has been a bit of an experimental year with this, but glad to see there is money to be made

[Coopertrooper]

FINALS WEEK 1 LINES:

Hawthorn -11.5 / Sydney +11.5
Geelong -20.5 / Fremantle +20.5
Collingwood -23.5 / Port Adelaide +23.5
Richmond -15.5 / Carlton +15.5

[OZnBa Fan]

I like cats line

[Coopertrooper]

I think we'll see all the favourites get up this week. I like sportsbet's promotion, money back if your team gets within 3 goals up to $100. Will be placing a bet on all 4 favourites with that promotion, can win up to $165 at the moment. Even if one team does lose by more than 3 goals, the worst result possible is +$15, 2 of them have to lose for a loss over the weekend.

[Gee]

I think all these look about right.

It is a bit surprising that Hawks closed at -18.5 (fair line about -13.5 with Tippett) in Sydney, yet open at -11.5 this weekend! Rioli and Lake should be back. Hannebury and LRT for Swans.. Hawks probably should be a play, but I was really impressed with Swans last Friday and not sure if im going to lay points here in a final!

Totals out on Bet365 - Carlton, 180.5, Pies - 178.5, Dockers - 168.5 and Hawks 180.5. Just played the Dockers under for 2 units and Hawks over for a unit. Hawks over may be a bit square, but I don't see it being much different from last Friday night... they certainly weren't playing bruise free footy like north/pies yesterday.

[MiddleMan]

It is a bit surprising that Hawks closed at -18.5 (fair line about -13.5 with Tippett) in Sydney, yet open at -11.5 this weekend! Rioli and Lake should be back. Hannebury and LRT for Swans.. Hawks probably should be a play, but I was really impressed with Swans last Friday and not sure if im going to lay points here in a final!

Lake played against Sydney last week.

[Gee]

Ugh, yep. You're right.

And Buddy out, Tippett in... ok, line making a bit more sense.

Freo total already down to 166.5...

Edit: FML, was looking at the wrong injury list...

[Coopertrooper]

FINALS


(I'll update at the end of the finals series, not week to week)


Play #1 - Hawthorn -11.5, $1.92 X 2.5

I actually like this play here quite a bit. Hawthorn were clearly the best team last year and have be stinging from their missed opportunity. They are again the best team this year and need to assert that early in the finals series. And who better to be playing than Sydney? They defeated the swans by 37 points (MCG) early in the season and by 12 points last week (ANZ). Their match at ANZ was just their 2nd ever match there, after being well beaten in their only other match at the venue, so it needs to be considered in taking anything out of their most recent encounter. This match comes to the MCG, which will suit the hawks.

While the hawks lose Franklin to suspension, he has not had his best season. Hawthorn have a better record without him in the last 5 years, suggesting they can find other avenues to goal which are more efficient, even if they are not able to create as many opportunities. This trade-off is still a negative for the hawks, however the return of Rioli will help to compensate that, as well as possible inclusions of Guerra or Shiels (not likely to see both pass fitness tests). The swans are expected to have some big inclusions (Hannebery, Tippett), which should bolster their attack, particularly Tippett against the hawks backline (despite Tippett's drop in form).

With these factors considered, I would have the line where it is now - at about 2 goals, and would be leaning the hawks to come out hungrier. However, there is one more factor that is being somewhat overlooked - and that is the likely inclusion of Bailey for the hawks. He was a late withdrawal last week, and is averaging 22 hitouts per game. He is a quality ruckman for the hawks, and frees Hale up to focus on his role up forward (crucial with Franklin out). Last week Mumford and Pyke showed how brutal they can be, combining for 56 hitouts, while Hale was a lone hand (24 hitouts, followed by Spangher with 5 hitouts). If Bailey plays, as expected, then the hawks will be much better off in this match.

I'm expecting hawks fans to be asking "Lance who?". 2.5 unit play.

[Lilfatbum]

With you on this Coop. Bias aside, being a Hawks fan, you cannot take anything or too much from last week. Bailey is a big in IMO for Spangher, this means Hale and Rough spend more time forward. Goo (guerra) is a more experienced player than Duryea, he didn't play in the granny last year, whilst he is all grunt and slow, he does provide classy kicking which could be pivotal. Last in definitely Jnr Cyril, but for who it's hard to tell at this stage, maybe Andersen with the 3 touches last week as the sub.

Sydney pivotal ins likely to be Hannebury, a class act, Tippett and Smith for Cunningham, Morton and maybe Rampe to make way, I think they'll keep pacy Rohan. Jetta I feel is a definite in for them for the outside run, especially hurts when they don't have that sweeper Shaw, Malcheski has more pressure in the back half to provide good run slight ankle for him too. With Jetta, Rohan that's two potential X factors plus Parker's 3 last week they have some good crumbers.

Important note that finals is totally different game swans will be lock down than ever, a 70-80 game or even lower is what probably most think. Hawks potent forward line should negate the buddy loss. It will be won in the middle no doubt. Swans seem to be more Tippett centric with their entries when he's there. Hawks have more match winners and have bigger focus to win it this year, though that come bigger pressure.

Some stats. Hard for teams that go back to back, last team to do that was the lions era, and crows 97/98. Since 2000, 11 teams in the top 2 that have won first week and made the final. Of those 11 teams in those years, 8 of the 11 have won the flag, only team to break that were Saints 09, Pies 11 and hawks last year. It is basically pivotal for teams in top 4 to win first week.

Another important thing to note the teams that have had good lead ins to the finals have generally done well, meaning Swans having indifferent form goin in, getting pasted by Cats and narrow loss to Hawks last week, despite them kicking 16.4. Even is they have Tippet on fire, I can't imagine swans replicating 16.4 and winning the game, stats show teams only on average score 50-60% ratio of goals to points.

To the hawks they have held form, or should I say been better than swans, hawks down 4 goals against a hungry Roos outift a couple of weeks ago and managed to scramble a win shows how committed the hawks are.

Rant over. Hawks for mine!

[Gee]

I don't know if the hard to win back to back flags angle means anything. You could just as easily say how hard it is to win one and as a matter of logic it is then hard to win another one. The corollary of that is that the best team is logically the best chance to win two in a row. Anyway, I never factor that in and usually on grand final day, i give the edge to the team that has been there before (win or lose).

I agree that this will be more of a lock down game, but nobody has been able to strangle the Hawks this year (apart from Geelong and we know about how they match up and I'm counting the Tigers loss as an outlier). Ultimately, they have averaged something like 109 per game (even if you take the highest two and bottom two out, the average is still very high).

I could be wrong, but I just don't see this being a grind of a game. Both teams are extremely efficient and, apart from some reduced accuracy, I don't see it being that much different from last week, where they did have something to play for.

Anyway, good luck on the Hawks. Over for me.

[Sulli99van]

Hopefully it'll be a good year and we'll all smash the books

[sando]

With you on this Coop. Bias aside, being a Hawks fan, you cannot take anything or too much from last week. Bailey is a big in IMO for Spangher, this means Hale and Rough spend more time forward. Goo (guerra) is a more experienced player than Duryea, he didn't play in the granny last year, whilst he is all grunt and slow, he does provide classy kicking which could be pivotal. Last in definitely Jnr Cyril, but for who it's hard to tell at this stage, maybe Andersen with the 3 touches last week as the sub.

Sydney pivotal ins likely to be Hannebury, a class act, Tippett and Smith for Cunningham, Morton and maybe Rampe to make way, I think they'll keep pacy Rohan. Jetta I feel is a definite in for them for the outside run, especially hurts when they don't have that sweeper Shaw, Malcheski has more pressure in the back half to provide good run slight ankle for him too. With Jetta, Rohan that's two potential X factors plus Parker's 3 last week they have some good crumbers.

Important note that finals is totally different game swans will be lock down than ever, a 70-80 game or even lower is what probably most think. Hawks potent forward line should negate the buddy loss. It will be won in the middle no doubt. Swans seem to be more Tippett centric with their entries when he's there. Hawks have more match winners and have bigger focus to win it this year, though that come bigger pressure.

Some stats. Hard for teams that go back to back, last team to do that was the lions era, and crows 97/98. Since 2000, 11 teams in the top 2 that have won first week and made the final. Of those 11 teams in those years, 8 of the 11 have won the flag, only team to break that were Saints 09, Pies 11 and hawks last year. It is basically pivotal for teams in top 4 to win first week.

Another important thing to note the teams that have had good lead ins to the finals have generally done well, meaning Swans having indifferent form goin in, getting pasted by Cats and narrow loss to Hawks last week, despite them kicking 16.4. Even is they have Tippet on fire, I can't imagine swans replicating 16.4 and winning the game, stats show teams only on average score 50-60% ratio of goals to points.

To the hawks they have held form, or should I say been better than swans, hawks down 4 goals against a hungry Roos outift a couple of weeks ago and managed to scramble a win shows how committed the hawks are.

Rant over. Hawks for mine!

Fantastic analysis! However 2 small points...

1. Swans indifferent form is not overly relevant for this team considering they are carrying the exact same form over the final month of this season as they did last year when of course they won the flag. (Home loss to the Pies, followed by belting a minnow, followed by a big loss to Geelong at Kardinia, followed by a tight loss at home to the Hawks).

2. I would argue that the Swans actually have more match winners (both subjectively and statistically) however I think the case could probably be mounted either way and is more a matter of opinion than something that can be directly quantified.

[Coopertrooper]

Good start to the finals, swans showed their hand last week and they aren't up to this level this year. Hard to see any other team being up to it really, only the curse can kill the hawks.

No play for Saturday, will be busy and don't like the look of anything (except the bets ML with money back specials). I think the cats/freo total is sharp, have to be careful playing that one.

[OZnBa Fan]

Good start to the finals, swans showed their hand last week and they aren't up to this level this year. Hard to see any other team being up to it really, only the curse can kill the hawks.

No play for Saturday, will be busy and don't like the look of anything (except the bets ML with money back specials). I think the cats/freo total is sharp, have to be careful playing that one.

Well done mate I was on hawks as well, they look mighty impressive. I agree you the only thing that can get the hawks will be the cats I think, I truly believe and if you look at recent history out of the 2 teams that make the grand final the team that wins it is usually the best performed team throughout the whole final series and the hawks have done no harm after tonight.

[Coopertrooper]

Well done mate I was on hawks as well, they look mighty impressive. I agree you the only thing that can get the hawks will be the cats I think, I truly believe and if you look at recent history out of the 2 teams that make the grand final the team that wins it is usually the best performed team throughout the whole final series and the hawks have done no harm after tonight.

It does tend to reflect that. While Freo played well, I think Geelong are realistically a fair way off the hawks level (but still match up on them so well). If it is a freo/hawks final, I can't really see Freo threatening them.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Richmond QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1.5

The tigers come up against a side which has limped into the finals with a lot of luck. The tigers army is up and about and I have no doubt the tigers will want to finish this off early. Their first time in the finals for over a decade, against a team they are clearly better than, would suggest they will be too good. However, Carlton do have a good record against the tigers - which adds to my reasoning of an early tigers blitz. They have to put any of those demons to bed early, so I think this is fantastic value. 1.5 units

[Coopertrooper]

Had to sweat it out big time (despite Richmond dominating the first quarter, something like 4 times as many inside 50's!! ), but just sneaks over the line! Hopefully the tigers keep it going, most people seem to be them today.

I decided to put a small bet on Richmond to be up at 1/4 time by 9-16 right before the bounce, the tigers player spoiled the ball through for a behind rather than punching it away after the siren had already gone, reducing the margin to 8 points. Filthy!

[Cornelius]

Good call mate. I was sweating it out too!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Hawthorn -11.5, $1.92 X 2.5 WON

Play #2 - Richmond QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1.5 WON

Finals: 2-0 +3.65 units

[Coopertrooper]

FINALS WEEK 2 LINES:

Geelong -26.5 / Port Adelaide +26.5
Sydney -21.5 / Carlton +21.5

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 Parlay:
-Geelong ML, $1.22
-Sydney ML, $1.33

TOTAL: $1.62 X 2

A fairly soft play to start week 2 off. History says that it is tough to get into a prelim unless you finish in the top 4 and it looks to repeat here. Geelong come up against Port, whom have pulled out a massive scrap to get through week 1, without impressing. The cats were outclassed at home, they are unlikely to allow this to happen again. They need to fire up and get there way to another prelim, because they know their experience come finals time is invaluable.

The swans were thumped by the best team in the comp, and come up against a very luck blues side, who managed to actually beat a mentally questionable tigers outfit. The blues still appear to be limping through, and will have injury concerns. The swans look like a no-brainer here. 2 units onto the double.

More plays will probably come once more markets are open.

[Coopertrooper]

Was working out my break-down for the year, and saw some small mistakes, so have corrected my overall record (Note: 1 more loss and 1 less unit risked).


Regular season:

YTD: 59-88 +17.70 units

Units risked: 183.5
ROI: +9.65%


For those interested, a break-down of my bet type stats over the home and away season:


Major types:

Parlays: 6-26 +14.46
Totals: 11-7 +2.57
ML: 0-2 -3.00
Lines: 3-5 -4.32
Points Line: 4-7 -3.80
QT Line: 14-4 +15.32
5-way Margins: 18-21 +7.57

Smaller types:

HT Line: 0-1 -1.00
10 or 20 point Margin: 1-11 -9.40
Qtr by Qtr leader: 0-2 -1.50
Total 10-point range: 0-1 -1.00
Doubles: 1-0 +1.10
Total QT: 1-1 +0.70


My results show that making profits from parlays is most certainly possible and is not just a mug bet-type. My totals bets weren't optimal, while ML and Line/ Points Line (taking 4 more points for $2.10) were very poor for me this year, something that needs to improve. QT Lines and 5-way Margins are my niche markets and both netted nice profits, will definitely explore these again next year. Also, picking 10 or 20 point margins was something I experimented with early in the year and it failed miserably. Won't be using that bet type much next year.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Parlay:

-Sydney QT -4.5, $1.90
-Geelong HT -12.5, $1.90

TOTAL: $3.61 X 1.5

Play #5 - Sydney QT -4.5, $1.90 X 2

Getting onto some lines while they are still low. Geelong will be very hungry after their loss last week, they will want to sustain an attack on a port side which finishes games so well. Port aren't playing fantastic football, but know how to win ugly. Geelong can be a bit slow out of the blocks, so prefer to take them to be over 2 goals up at half time.

My bigger play is on the swans. They weren't good enough for the hawks in the second half, but are clearly superior in this match-up. Carlton are not playing good football and have some very sore bodies after their game with the tigers. A 6 day break won't help that at all, while the swans get 8 days to refresh. Their side should be more settled, and Sydney start well (Won 15 of 23 first quarters in the home and away season, drew 2 and lost 5, also lost last week by 1 point to hawks). The variability of games has tended to show outside teams playing well in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, 1st quarters have had a good record. Sydney should get this done, fairly confident to play 2 units on it and have it in a parlay too

[Coopertrooper]

Play #6 - Sydney -18.5 (LUXBET), $1.92 X 1

As I've said above, I think the swans are the better side. Luxbet have a line much lower than other books (Sportsbet 21.5, Bet365 22.5, Centrebet 23.5), so playing a unit on here. Hopefully the great value available this round will be cashed, GL to all this weekend!

[OZnBa Fan]

I really like the cats half time line pal. I actually think the cats will 40+ if they are at full throttle for 4 qtrs. can't bring myself to take swans as I'm a Carlton supporter and a little bias but I do think swans will get the job done but I think we will put up a decent fight
Good luck

[Coopertrooper]

I really like the cats half time line pal. I actually think the cats will 40+ if they are at full throttle for 4 qtrs. can't bring myself to take swans as I'm a Carlton supporter and a little bias but I do think swans will get the job done but I think we will put up a decent fight
Good luck

Thanks bud. I know it is tough when your team is involved, especially when you think they are likely to come out fired up in a given game. Usually best to stay away when that is the case.