Tetradrachm is entered today at SARATOGA. race 9
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Splashy Girl woodbine race 8
Tetradrachm is entered today at SARATOGA. race 9Comment -
Tug Of War saratoga race 10
Jul-29 SAR R10 50.00 USD SHW 10Comment -
Arana is scheduled to run on 7/30/2015 in Race 8 at Saratoga Race CourseComment -
Haskell Day!!!!
Monmouth
Race 1
1-Tell Tale Friend 3-1 - Caught a dead track while setting the pace last out and still hung on to be only beaten 1/2 length. Should have the front end all to himself and will be tough.
Race 2
2-Pin Up 6-1 - Several angles in her favor for McLaughlin. He is one of the best coming off this type of layoff and with maidens making first start on turf.
Race 3
5-Royal Burgh 4-1
1-Joe Tess 6-1
8-Percussion 6-1
5 comes back undervalued off 211 days with slow figs in last two which were a G3 and G2. Meaning Pletcher obviously thinks/thought he has talent. Now gelded expecting a huge jump in figs getting back to allowance foes. Other two are from magicians Ness and Navarro who can turn claimers into stakes horses.
Race 4
6-Blue Violet 9-2 - Is the horse you want if you're trying to beat Got Lucky. Has competitive races on par with the big fave and gets regular/ barn's first call pilot back aboard.
4-Got Lucky 7-5
7-Montana Native 5-1
Race 5
7-Best Actor 3-1
4-Hobbs 12-1
9-Lawyer Jim 6-1
8-Tour Again 20-1
Expecting a fast pace...Best Actor is going to be tough given a good trip 3rd start from layoff. He , Hobbs , and Lawyer Jim drop to lowest level ever on turf. Hobbs was once knocking around in Graded Stakes. Lawyer Jim's last can be tossed .No chance vs wire to wire easy lead winner who returns here but will be challenged early this time. Had a little trouble too plus was 8-5 in the race. Would be top pick should something cause 7 to miss race. Tour Again held well at this level despite setting a very fast 2nd fraction. Only lost less than a length.
Race 6
12-Ride This Train 8-1
9-Candy Mine 12-1
Should know by now how the track is playing. Monmouth has been one or the other a lot this meet. Either favoring speed or dead. If it's anything but speed favoring will be using these two. The 9 has been begging for more distance last 3 starts since returning from break. No name connections should provide big price to bulk up any ex , tri , super. The 12 gets Paco back for first time long in 3rd career start.
Race 7
4-Dujac 7-2
7-To Your Health 8-1
10-Great Dancer 15-1
1-St Louie 12-1
Might be toughest race on the card. C Brown is out of this world when he goes to Monmouth and Parx . Winning 40 - 50 % of the time. He sends out the 4. On the Paco Lopez train a lot so far but like the 7 because of trainer. Catalano is excellent off a maiden win. Great Dancer gets back on turf for 3rd off layoff and 3rd in USA. First start in US was on turf and made up almost 17 lengths to finish 2nd. The 1 gets a jock upgrade from Serpa to Lanerie who has gotten a few long shots home for me. Very tough race , could add 5 or 6 more contenders.
Race 8
4-Delta Bluesman 10-1 - Not sure we can get past the 3 headed monster of 5-Catron , 7-Stallwalkin' Dude , and 3-Wildcat Red but this would be my stab . Would say the 7 is my pick amongst them
Race 9
3-Charm City Girl 8-1 - Very balanced field were every horse in the field can win. C Brown has 2 , already stated he is 50/50 in NJ and PA. Then several good trainers have their runners 3rd off bench. One of which is the 3 for G Motion who along with C Clement are among the best at getting there horses fit to run best 3rd from layoff.
Race 10
5-Freestyler 8-1 - Think he scratched out of race at Mountaineer Saturday to run here. B Alexander is under the radar trainer who spots the well so if he runs here he is live. The 1 and 8 come out of same race where they ran big figures on or close to a slow pace on a speed favoring track. So a little skeptical but would go 5,1,8 in ex box.
Race 11
3-Old Time Hockey 8-1 - Has huge back figures and if he can run back to those races 8-1 is a gift. The fave(5) has a big pace edge lonely on the lead. Need someone to push him a little to get the 3 home.
Race 12
4-American Pharoah
6-Keen Ice 12-1
1-Upstart 6-1
A couple of these actually scratched out of races Saturday to take on the Triple Crown champ here. Maybe they are just looking at the purse and black type of placing in the G1 Haskell or maybe they think they have a chance if he is a little rusty off the layoff. I think they are looking at 2nd and 3rd black type.
Race 13
7-Silverville 3-1 - I absolutely loved this horse at 12 or 15-1 Saturday in the 6th (I think) Saturday at Mountaineer. Was going to unload. Now I'm only getting 3-1. Won't unload on that but if last race isn't an aberration then this horse is in line for a big race.
Race 14
1A-Jackie's Disco 8-1 - Is the price alternative but trying to beat Navarro off the claim , he has the fave 5, is often pointless. It says a lot that the 5 is favored . Even the ML maker expects 10-30 point jumps first off the claim for this "trainer".Comment -
Monmouth race 12
1/4,6/2,4,5,6,7,8Comment -
Wow what a horse was wishful thinking for anyone to have a shot at him
Race 12
4-American Pharoah
6-Keen Ice 12-1
1-Upstart 6-1
Nice picked the order mike
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i think hes the best horse ive ever seen in my lifeComment -
Holy invader the win bet at saratogaComment -
jara the jockey there was pathetic best horse never even get placed cause the idiot could not steer to get a runComment -
Neoclassic saratoga race 11
Aug-02 SAR R11 50.00 USD SHW 3
50 / 0Comment -
Blue Strike is scheduled to run on 8/6/2015 in Race 2 at Yonkers Raceway.
1
4Long Fight Hanover $9.90 $6.20 $4.00
2
1Blue Strike - $22.60 $8.60
3
7Or - - $8.60Last edited by harthebar; 08-06-15, 06:47 PM.Comment -
Saturday
Saratoga
Race 1
Tough race with a bunch of droppers and risers but most surprised that Cease is 8 years old. Seems like yesterday he was knocking around in Graded Stakes vs Mucho Macho Man , To Honor And Serve , and Shackleford. Now all the way down to claimers. Jacobson dropped him to around this level last year with no luck and while Servis is a very good claiming trainer , D Jacobson may be the best so I'll try to beat Cease at a likely short price.C Brown is 16 for 33 first time claiming and Mail takes a huge drop but I have to wonder why Castellano jumps off. 2-Second City has a similar profile running in Graded Stakes not too long ago but he has got it done when dropped to claimers such as this. 4-Barrister Jim 6-1 is 2 for 2 at the distance and the main speed here. Rudy Rod has been coldish but enough positives to include. 5-Lieutenant Seany O 5-1 is the horse Castellano jumps to and moves up in class off a big figure win. Martin not very good first off claim being the only real negative.
2-Second City
4-Barrister Jim
5-Lieutenant Seany O
Race 2
Almost impossible race to figure out. Ten mostly unraced and lightly race 2 year olds going 2 turns on the grass. So I'm likely staying away from exactas here and just trying to get 3-Monster Bea 10-1 into the money at hopefully a big price. No name trainer has won with his only runner this meet. Not a lot of confidence in jock T Rice but a big fan of sire Hat Trick , especially when trying turf for the first time. Also one of the few runners in here with a race under his belt which pace figures indicate should like routing. 2-Say Hey Kid 20-1 would be my alternative if 3 scratches. McPeek is very capable going long on turf first time out and Lanerie is his 1st call at Churchill. Then not sure which Mott horse to use so would just go 4 deep if I go for the long ball with exacta and use 4-Acoustic 15-1 and 10-Oscar Nominated 15-1.
3-Monster Bea
2-Say Hey Kid
10-Oscar Nominated
4-Acoustic
Race 3
Another big field baby race , this time sprinting on dirt. These are all first time starters. No clever angles popping up so landed on the logical ones. Dutrow not so hot with firsters last 365 days but was a fan of Trappe Shot and they paid a pretty penny for 9-Set The Trappe compared to 10k stud fee(300k). Nothing against the 2 favorites but would rather use half decent prices in 7-Wingman 5-1 and 5-Star Hill 8-1.
9-Set The Trappe
7-Wingman
5-Star Hill
Race 4
I guess the other horses are classier but as the 2 longest prices 1-Fixador 10-1 and 5-Manchurian High 15-1 have to be used imo. Both are just as fast as anyone and big prices in a 6 horse field. Definitely up against it pace wise as 6-Reload 8-5 is on a lonely lead which is pretty much guaranteed to be taken advantage of with Castellano riding. Both may want longer however Saez has gotten the 5 there in time at distances as short as this. All 3 times L Saez has ridden him he ran exceptional including only beaten 1 1/2 lengths in a Grade 1.
5-Manchurian High
1-Fixador
6-Reload
Race 5
Thinking the key to hitting this exacta will be having the right 2 among the 6 or 7 logical horses. Not seeing any bombs except maybe the Motion 1ster 11 at 15-1. The six horses that are lower than 8-1 are the players. I like 5-Infinite Wisdom 6-1 on top. Getting lasix first time while coming from a year off. Has two career races which fit with anyone and if you project some improvement over the last year then he is the likely winner. Plus gets a big jock upgrade from Moran to Rosario. 9-Take Cover 6-1 stretches out after closing fast at 6f and also 2nd off layoff. 2-Ascend 8-1 tries turf in 2nd career start after a dirt sprint . McLaughlin is good at many things , one of his best angles is returning off long layoffs. If the turf is hard and speed is winning then 7-Zennor 6-1 is the horse to key.
5-Infinite Wisdom
9-Take Cover
2-Ascend
7-Zennor
Race 6
Another long layoff McLaughlin horse in Ocean Knight. Not going to get close to the price you would the race before on Zennor. It's a couple others that I'm really interested in . 5-Takajo 15-1 and 6-Crafty Dreamer 10-1 can win or at least break up the faves 2,4,9. It would be between 4-Ocean Knight 2-1 and 9-Havana 7-2 , which fave I throw in. *Dropping Havana for 7-Erik The Red 12-1
6-Crafty Dreamer
5-Takajo
4-Ocean Knight
7-Erik the Red
Race 7
Is a complete clusterf**k. If you can get this Superfecta or even the Trifecta you are a genius or just really lucky. Literally any 11 of the 12 can win save Joint Return who is 1st time turf after 15 dirt races, Even if she won it wouldn't be a complete shock as she has fast races on dirt it's just a complete guess if she can repeat them on turf. I thought 6-J Wonder 5-1 was a standout based on figs but Lezcano jumps off and Castellano who has ridden the couple times before that chose another also. And Franco isn't a rider Shug goes to. They are 0 for 8. After taking way too long trying to figure this race out I came up with 8-Nellie Cashman 15-1 , 7-Token Of Love 10-1 , and 10-Pink Poppy 12-1 as the bombs with 11-Tickling Katie 8-1 my likely winner. BUT I can't get away from how good J Wonder looks on paper. Not sure what to do.
11-Tickling Katie
6-J Wonder
10-Pink Poppy
8-Nellie Cashman
7-Token Of Love
Race 8
3-By The Moon 8-1
6-Wonder Girl 6-1
10-Pleasant Tales 30-1
Race 9
2-Tonalist 4-1
6-V.E. Day 8-1
9-Wicked Strong 20-1
Race 10
2-Eastern Belle 6-1
6-Nice Number 30-1
9-Selenite 20-1
3-Evidently 20-1
Race 11
5-Slam Chowder 12-1
7-Kicken Livi 12-1
6-Miss Valued 8-1
9-Southern Sunshine 12-1Last edited by mikemca; 08-07-15, 09:51 PM.Comment -
Gulfstream
Race 3
5-Naval Command 6-1
Race 4
5-Aire Bueno 5-1
Race 5
2-Charging Lil 20-1
Race 7
5-Favorite Heir 10-1
Race 8
5-Holywell 20-1
Race 9
2-Wildcatter's Gold 15-1
Race 10
3-Lemon Point 8-1
8-Latique 10-1Comment -
can say Ive been to NJ now had to pickup load in somervilleComment -
Thanks mikeComment -
At the hambo. Today at the meadowlands ...Comment -
Foiled again betters edge 4th
miss Tezla 2nd
rocklamation 3rd
Intimidate 5th
the bank pinkman 8thComment -
Monster Bea wins $25.80
Takajo wins $27.60Comment -
Moss Code is scheduled to run on 8/9/2015 in Race 5 at Saratoga Race CourseComment -
Monday
Saratoga
Race 1
Violette is a freak with NY Bred first time starters. So 6-New York Song 3-1 may prove tough to beat. However in these 2 year old MSWs with many first time starters the betting tells you a lot. It's impossible to hide a good thing nowadays with so many eyes watching and outlets to get the info out. Meaning if the 6 is cold on the board that's a red flag. And I will pay attention particularly to 5-Dublinyourmoney 7-2 for L Whiting. Based in Kentucky at CD she doesn't send horses up to the Spa...ever. Very interesting she debuts this horse here and noted that sire has 6.5k stud fee but they had to fork over 350k to buy this colt. 4-Alexander David 8-1 and 10-Gaming 15-1 are the two prices I like. The 10 would be the win bet stab.
10-Gaming
6-New York Song
5-Dublinyourmoney
4-Alexander David
Race 2
Well if either 5-Abraham 7-2 or 6-Conspiracy 3-1 bring their A game then it's a race for 2nd or 3rd if they both do. They are just better than these but there are big question marks. Both seem hard to keep in one piece with many layoff lines. The sneaky play is 2-Prospero 8-1 first off the claim for J Englehart. If the 6 fails to fire then he could have the lead all to himself.
2-Prospero
5-Abraham
6-Conspiracy
Race 3
Very hard to take a short price with all the concerns among the faves. The 1 got a hot pace to close into last race and still didn't win. The 5 has the look of a hanger. Maybe Veya finally dropping into the claiming ranks gets him the win but still a maiden after 15 starts , hard to take 4-1. I'm tossing between 4-Tiz Time To Shake 10-1 who finished in front of Veya last time they met and 11-Blast Away 8-1 who is bred to be a great horse being a half to Philanthropist and Defer. Has got going to late his last several starts and the switch to Johnny V could do the trick.
4-Tiz Time To Shake
11-Blast Away
2-Veya
Race 4
Not sure favorite One Sided wants the demanding 9f at Saratoga. Looks like he wants 1 turn races but it is Pletcher and the way Liam ran in the Whitney I wouldn't be surprised. There are 4 horses with good looking pace lines for a stretchout. They're 3-Clifton Pleasure 20-1 , 5-Dr. Toole 12-1 , 9-Repent Twice 8-1 , and 10-Zabaione 12-1. It's likely they'll be running fastest at the end. The mystery horse is 8-Tiz Time To Shine 7-2. First time routing in 4th career start for Castellano and C Brown. Not sure what to do with him. Hopefully there is a scratch among the horses I like so I could just box the 4 left.
5-Dr. Toole 12-1
3-Clifton Pleasure 20-1
10-Zabaione 12-1
9-Repent Twice 8-1
8-Tiz Time To Shine 7-2
Race 5
Can't make any sense of this race. If C Val can get Late Night Mark to rate I would be all over him. Horse looks like a handful though so even though Matz is having a terrible 2015 I think 4-Eye Of The Moon 5-1 is the horse to beat dropping out of MSW for the first time on turf.
4-Eye Of The Moon
Race 6
Chad Brown has a strong hand , as it seems he does every single turf race this meet. This race he runs 4-Swear By It 5-1 and 8-Neck Of The Moon 4-1. Could see either winning and if you are trying to beat the Pletcher favorite you are likely to land on one of them.The Pletcher 9-Capriana 2-1 did run huge last out. You don't see many turf horses winning by 10+ lengths. And in her 2 starts she won rallying from 9th and then won setting a crazy fast pace on the lead. So no outside the box ideas here.
8-Neck Of The Moon
4-Swear By It
9-Capriana
Race 7
Two things are pretty clear on paper , 1)Just about everyone wants the lead so a fast pace is assured and 2)9-Bass River Road 6-1, 10-The Big Deluxe 7-2 lay over the field. Those two could get caught up in the fast pace though. Both have shown an ability to rate but their best races come on or near the lead. Think I have to use them in exacta but the horse I want is 8-Saratoga Heater 6-1 who is 2 for 5 career but 2 for 3 vs NY Breds including a stake win. Everything could be chaos if one of the bombs takes the lead and everyone grabs because they look at pps too. Surely they will be aware of the abundance of early speed.
8-Saratoga Heater
9-Bass River Road
10-The Big Deluxe
Race 8
Got a clear picture of this race , whether it's correct or not who knows. Think the lone filly 1-Amazing Anne 3-1 is the most likely winner. If Alvarado can make the 112 weight she'll have 5 to 9 pounds on everyone. Not a big weight guy but it can't hurt and along with the rail she should save all the ground while carrying much less weight and is the fastest horse on turf when you factor in pace figs. The two outside horses are my exacta fillers. If the 6-Memories Of Peter 5-1 can keep progressing and 7-Possessed 6-1 takes to the turf they should be right there.
1-Amazing Anne
6-Memories Of Peter
7-Possessed
Race 9
4-Splended Gold 6-1 and 3-Cosmic Tale 9-2 are my 2 logical horses but nothing beyond that .
4-Splendid Gold
3-Cosmic Tale
6-Misty Sunday 15-1Comment -
Good write up Mike. Will consider you opinions for some DW contests today. Thx.Comment -
Heading to otb in half hour going to play them all as been struggling of late-hope WE have a big day bol mikeComment -
:La Nena Executive is scheduled to run on 8/12/2015 in Race 8 at WoodbineComment -
Arlington Million Day!
Great card with few if any standouts
Arlington
Race 1
2-Bank Account 7-2
4-Mighty Hutch 8-1(Could turn tables on top choice...Pick of only WIN bet)
10-Run Right At It 10-1
9-Costly King 5-2(Top 3 may all get the jump on this one)
Race 2
2-Three Golden Rules 5-1(No chance on very speed favoring tracks last 2...Move to turf would give a big shot if fair/closer friendly)
Race 3
3-Premura 9-2(Stidham in his element at Arlington with this jock off this long of layoff)
Race 4
6-Belomor 10-1(Many stretchout sprinters should provide fast pace giving this colt something to run at)
2-Chip Leader 4-1(Stretching out but proven over the distance while others are routing first time)
3-Bordini 10-1
Race 5
No idea about this circuit's 2 year old MSWs. Which trainers, which sires are good with 1sters on synth, etc...Three faves 3-Moms Choice, 7-Prarie Chick , 8-Recognition have the best trainers on paper but not sure what their specialty is whether it's sprinting , routing, turf, synth, 2 year olds , or 3yrs +. However might stab with 6-Angel's Cry 15-1 who is only 1 of 2 who have raced before and may not have cared much for muddy track on dirt at IND. Get's back on ARL poly where she has been training before and after that toss out race. Expect big improvement but Rivelli (3) and Divito (8) get them ready first out.
6-Angel's Cry 15-1
3-Mom's Choice
8-Recognition
Race 6
The trick to this race is figuring out what to do with the Canterbury races several of these come out of. Most look really good figurewise from there but have often seen horses run huge figures at B tracks only to not back it up when returning to the big leagues. C Clement has a strong chance with 10-Miss Chatelaine 7-2 and at that price is a bet for sure. This circuit's turf wizard like Clement is C Block who has two runners. 2-Giant Deduction 12-1 has the upside in only 3rd career start with progressive figs and should appreciate the extra furlong. Then we get to the Caterbury horses . I prefer 6-America Mon Amie 8-1 and 9-Counterfactual 15-1.
10-Miss Chatelaine
2-Giant Deduction
6-America Mon Amie
9-Counterfactual
Race 7
3-Lucky Speed 5-1
1-Panama Hat 10-1
11-Highball 15-1
Race 8
This race looks like it's going to the Euros who have 3 horses with good chances 6-Highland Reel 5-2 for Aiden O'Brien , undefeated 3-Goldstream 9-2 , and 7-War Dispatch 4-1. Could box those 3 trying to beat favored Force The Pass. Interesting price horse 1-Closing Bell 10-1 progressed every start up to this 4th career start and ran as good or better imo than fave Force The Pass in G1 Belmont Derby trying to rally into slow pace. Another improvement and the 1 has as good a shot as any to win this.
1-Closing Bell 10-1
6-Highland Reel
3-Goldstream 9-2
7-War Dispatch 4-1
Race 9
I like a lot of horses in here. Last year's winner Euro Charline and place horse Stephanie's Kitten are beatable.
2-Watsdachances 10-1
5-Mango Diva 15-1
6-Carla Bianca 8-1
_______________________
1-Lacy 20-1
10-Secret Gesture 9-2
9-Wedding Vow 4-1
Of course have to narrow it down by Saturday or hope for scratches. Mango Diva and Watsdachances have a kick that can win this . It's all up to the jock pushing the button at just the right time. Lacy is the biggest price and has ran well fresh and note the addition of lasix says a lot for a German horse since they don't breed to any horse that has used the med. So she probably really needs it and this horse is not going back to Germany.Carla Bianca was coming off a year layoff when she finished behind Wedding Vow 3 back. Is in career best form now. Wedding Vow and Secret Gesture are the logical horses but Wedding Vow may be my first cut.
Race 10
One of the best Arlington Million fields I have seen from a betting perspective. The R9/R10 Daily Double and every other horizontal bet including those 2 races is definitely worth taking a shot. Could go with any of the 13 horses and I wouldn't argue. Even 9-Shining Copper 30-1 comes off a career best fig that fits with these when setting a ridiculous pace and still holding well to only finish a neck behind Slumber who is 7-2 this race and less than 2 lengths behind Big Blue Kitten who is the favorite at 3-1 in the G1 United Nations. Both were 11 lengths or more behind the wicked pace Copper set. That leads me to not like any out
that race but like I said. I wouldn't argue with someone who thinks that race is key and likes them all. If Carla Bianca runs lights out the race prior that would boost the stock of 30-1 bomb 12-Elleval. Have to take more time with this race . Right now I'm thinking 10-Triple Threat 6-1 , 3-Bookrunner 15-1 , and 5-Wake Forest 12-1.
Race 11
8-Shaban 15-1Last edited by mikemca; 08-14-15, 02:18 PM.Comment -
Unusually Green is scheduled to run on 8/13/2015 in Race 7 at Del Mar.Comment -
Console is entered on August 14, 2015 at INDIANA GRAND RACE COURSE.Comment
