Eastern Atlantic woodbine 7
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A rare Sunday play for me, coming up here Belmont R7 wps #2 All Tied UpComment -
Tru Greek is entered to run on May 16, 2015, at PIMLICO.Comment -
hit the pick 6 at belmont today, lots of chalk tho, big carryover. Playing Santa Anita pick 6 tomorrow, big carryover there too, will try to post ticket for santa anitaComment -
My crazy reckless go big or go home picks. Only takes one big exacta.
Friday May 15th
Pimlico
Race 1
Imo the ML maker got this one right with the three outside horses the main players. 10-Pool Winner the 9-5 fave , 9-Dunne Hall 5-2 , and 8-Spring Equinox 4-1. Several of the others try to jump up from maiden claimers to this msw of average races. To me they are all tosses so if I'm trying to find a price it's with one of the firsters. It's between 2-Mr Fibbs 15-1 and 7-Ello Govna 12-1. Freud is an excellent NY bred turf sire and can hold his own in open company like this race. He is the sire of the 2. The dam has a couple turf winners but they were routers and even the ones that tried turf and didn't win were almost all routing. The 7 has a new sire Charitable Man who hasn't had a turf winner yet but only a handful have tried it so far.His sire Lemon Drop Kid is one of the best turf sires out there so think things will get better.The Dam hasn't had a turf winner from 3 offspring but none have tried so far.Add in the trainers and the fact the 7 gets lasix while the 2 does not leads me to think the 2 is looking at routes down the road and the 7 could be the live firster. Speed has been holding fairly well on turf which is unusual for Pimlico. Hopefully they water this course and it gets back to the fair/somewhat favoring closers turf that Pimlico has always been. Otherwise it may be hard to break up the top 3 because Equinox would hold on .
10-Pool Winner
9-Dunne Hall
7-Ello Govna 12-1
Race 2
Rachel Alexandra's full sister , Rachel Alexandra's full sister , Rachel Alexandra's full sister , that's all you are going to hear about this race. 7-Samantha Nicole 3-1 is indeed RA's full sister who until last race had run three pretty average losing races. Then she exploded to win her maiden last out as most of Kiaran McLaughlin's horses have done this year. He is on fire. Ironically there is also an 8-5 favorite named 8-Don'tforgetaboutme that is pretty fitting. She kind of did the opposite of what Todd Pletcher's horses usually do. She ran average at GP and then won with ease at CD. They usually explode in Florida only to never replicate that form again once they leave the state. The knocks are there because she won easily with a clear lead on a less than fast track , labeled good , so it took some rain. As an alternative I'm looking to 4-Sing Lady Sing 15-1 who Mike Matz gave a winter break to grow up some and then came back in April at Keeneland , was fractious in the gate , the proceeded to run Grade 1 fractions in an allowance race before tiring. Could be the inside speed if she wants and will almost certainly be less taxing fractions. Now 2nd off the layoff with a toss out race to dirty up her form . Her debut was a nice one going away by 6 1/2 lengths and making only her 4th career start could have significant upside if getting back to that kind of form and progressing.
4-Sing Lady Sing 15-1
Race 3
Conscience seems a little short at 6-5 and will take heavy support coming from "superior" races at Santa Anita. Proctor excellent trainer but just OK off this kind of layoff (94-158 days). Surprise, I'm interested in some bombs. 7-Dark Voyager 15-1 , 3-Cap' N Raymond 20-1 , and 1-Mabroom 12-1 in that order. All 3 have competitive races in there last few races and pace figs that say they could run even better. Dark Voyager tries turf for the first time for a trainer that isn't too great with the move but the breeding is there for a jump 1st turf. Of the single digit horses 11-Sterling's Maximus 6-1 makes the most sense to me and with the possible huge payouts could be included in 4 horse exacta box.
7-Dark Voyager 15-1
3-Cap'N Raymond 20-1
1-Mabroom 12-1
11-Sterling's Maximus 6-1
Race 4
A few firsters and a couple fast debuts make up the horses likely to take money in this MSW. Please give me a fast pace and a fair to tiring track and I got 4-Saturday's Rein at 20-1. First ond only race looks horrible but that race looks like many I have seen horses improve dramatically off of. Probably goes off 40 or 50 to 1 so definitely a shot in the dark. My biggest scores were/are on 2nd time starters. Many different angles for 2nd timers and this is one. The concerns are that it is noted as a closer friendly track she had in debut and this angle is at it's best when they stretch out not cut back. Still worth a stab imo.
4-Saturday's Rein 20-1
Race 5
Going to try and beat the Chad Brown 2nd choice on the ML . To take at that price is guessing that she is going to jump forward in 3rd start. Her first two races don't justify that price in this race of quality turf horses. The 10-Miss Temple City 8-5 is legit but even a case can be made with her drawing furthest outside that she could be beat. The main horse to use is 4-Lady Zazu 6-1 and the price is there to just play her to win or w/p or w/p/s , whatever works. Have long been a believer in Nakatani on turf and if anyone can get the best out of this filly it's him. She doesn't even need to improve if the 10 has an off race or if she gets back to her race 2 back. Only 6 starts so could still have potential and if she improves 6-1 is a big overlay. Two prices I would use in exacta are 6-Kawfee Fa Marfa 15-1 and 7-Gypsy Judy 15-1. Both are still also lightly raced and progressing. Using the 10 is a judgement call.
4-Lady Zazu 6-1
7-Gypsy Judy 15-1
6-Kawfee Fa Marfa 15-1
10-Miss Temple City 8-5
Been a little long winded so far and will be here all night so going mostly short and sweet from here out.
Race 6
Agree with the ML as faves 4-American Progress 5-2 and 9-Regal Soldier 4-1 look best.Could use 3-Miner's Quest 15-1 and 1A-Right On Course 10-1 as prices with them though.
9-Regal Soldier 4-1
4-American Progress 5-2
3-Miner's Quest 15-1
1A-Right On Course 10-1
Race 7
All 3 faves have question marks with 2 coming off layoffs and 1 trying turf first time but can't find a good bomb.9-Subpoena 10-1 looks next best but likes to hit the place/show spots instead of win. 11-Cavort 15-1 would be my try at beating the faves but no telling how she will handle stretching out for the first time. Only 3rd start so upside is there. Probably just pass thinking 1,6, or 8 win or little gamble on Cavort or figure something out dropping 1 of 3 faves and using 9 and 11 with two of them.
11-Cavort 15-1
Race 8
Originally thought I was going to like 4-Super Saks 15-1 as she has the fastest figure coming in and is 15-1 but there is quite a bit of early speed in here. They are throwing blinkers on so she will be flying. Would most likely have been fastest early anyway and now with blinkers could run an eye popping 1/4 and 1/2. So with all the speed 8-Streamsong 20-1 could find herself passing them like they are in slow motion late. Maybe just try her or if doing exacta still think have to use Super Saks , 15-1 is biggest overlay in race. Then either Miss Ella 4-1 or Enchanting Lady 3-1. E Lady seems to run best when catching moderate to slow pace though so choosing between the two would go to Miss Ella.
8-Streamsong 20-1
4-Super Saks 15-1
3-Miss Ella 4-1
Race 9
1-Grateful Nation 15-1 gets a huge upgrade at jockey to Javi and now 2nd off layoff could turn tables on horses that have beat her. Also think 4-Golden Emperor 12-1 could be thrown in exacta. Then pick between the 3 faves 3,7,9. I'd go with the 9.
1-Grateful Nation 15-1
4-Golden Emperor 12-1
9-Amelia's Wild Ride 4-1
Race 10
5-Fortune Pearl 8-1
4-Joint Return 15-1
7-Before You Know It 10-1
2-Stopchargingmaria 9-5
Race 11
Could use 4-Gypsy Judy 20-1 as my bomb if she decides to run here and not the 5th. Or 9-Keen Pauline 15-1. Just throw them in with Luminance.
8-Luminance 9-5
4-Gypsy Judy 20-1
9-Keen Pauline 15-1
Race 12
Only one horse is in Lady Sabelia's ballpark. 7-Who's In Town 12-1 is the only one but comes off 1/2 a year layoff.
7-Who's In Town 12-1
Race 13
4-Storming Rage 15-1
Race 14
6-Kid Cruz 15-1 and 8-Top Billing 12-1 are the prices to use.Why not end it with a possible signer.
6-Kid Cruz 15-1
8-Top Billing 12-1
7-Vyjack 15-1Comment -
All In Fun is scheduled to run on 5/15/2015 in Race 5 at PimlicoComment -
np doesn't look good for deep closers though. They must have the grass cut shorter for the first time ever. Speed never holds here on turf yet a 50-1 bomb held for 2nd behind an even money fave in 3rd.Comment -
And the horse in the 4th with 20-1 ML that I thought was going to be 40 or 50 to 1 opened at 2-1 and is sitting at 8-1 right now.Comment -
]All In Fun is scheduled to run on 5/15/2015 in Race 5 at Pimlico[/QUOTE]
Transparent 14thComment -
Pim race 7 #2 Pauline's prideComment -
Pim Race 11
#1 Danessa Deluxe
#8 Luminance
#7 Devine Aida
1,8/1,8/4,6,7Comment -
damn...should of had that exacta in black eyed susan but the rare fave I use gets a WTF ride.
Could see same with Pharoah tomorrowComment -
Mike,
You are razor sharp about the cutting of the grass. Not many realize it, but you do !!
Glad you shared that and all that read will hopefully pay attention to it. It's the grass equivalent of grading the dirt back to the crown.
Very important info that is never incorrect. For those that decide to monitor it, well done.
Everyone owes you a "Thanks Mike", so on behalf of them, Thank You!
Good luck tomorrow.Comment -
NP and thanks I could use a little bit of luck tomorrow after today.
However like 9 or 10 favorites won today and that never bodes well for me. Need some prices Saturday.Comment -
Saturday May 16th
Pimlico
Race 1
Supposedly 8-Finnegan 6-5 is Wesley Ward's best 2 year old this year and he may be the best trainer with young juvies ever so that is saying something. Is also a 1/2 to Bodemeister. If all goes well he is planning a trip to Royal Ascot for this one. Hard to oppose. Rivelli is good in his own right so if I try to beat him it would be with 7-Mafia Muscle Man 6-1.
8-Finnegan 6-5
7-Mafia Muscle Man 6-1
1/1A-Entry 8-1
Race 2
Playing two sprint to route horses as the prices for exacta 5-Fish Whistler 8-1 and 7-No Brakes 10-1. No Brakes is 7 for 10 finishing 1st or 2nd at 1 1/16 miles at PIM. The 5 not as successful but last race is a toss due to a pretty poor ride and against track anyway. Still new to Magee barn who is a ringer at PIM and switch to a better jock in McCarthy. Decision is which short price to use . 3-Stolen Love 6-5 is the obvious choice but depending on which part of the 1/1A entry stays in , prefer 1-Q's Jack 5-1 but wouldn't mind Hideaway Moon too.
1-Q's Jack 5-1
3-Stolen Love 6-5
7-No Brakes 10-1
5-Fish Whistler 8-1
Race 3
Pretty crazy the favorite for this msw turf route is the only firster in this 13 horse field. It is T Proctor but he is just OK with 1 timers and horse is 1/2 to Coil who was pretty good but on dirt. The biggest plus is sire Kittens Joy but still can't justify taking 1st timer in bulky field as fave. Thinking 3-My Team 10-1 could get a great trip from inside with early speed. Making turf debut after failing 3 times on dirt. No winners from dam but this one could like turf . 13-Steel Sky 5-1 would be my 1st choice to use as key in EX/TRI/SUPER but seems to hang.
3-My Team 10-1
13-Steel Sky 5-1
11-Lava 10-1
Race 4
May be one of if not the trickiest race on the card. You have 2 primarily dirt horses that are trying turf and if they can run the same on turf then they are major players and Bluegrass Singer is 10-1. Then you have a couple Europe horses with one fresh off the plane for a trainer that posts big returns both first time US and 1st lasix. Wouldn't argue with someone on any horse in here. Cases can be made for them all. The bad news is that there is a lot of speed which favors the favorite who is one of only a couple that can sit off the pace. Another is 7-Syntax 12-1 who appears a tad slow but making 3rd start in Mott barn , 2nd off layoff, and off a race that has promising pace figs for a sharp improvement.
7-Syntax 12-1
2-Force The Pass 5-2
3-Bluegrass Singer 10-1
Race 5
Really liking the 8-Service For Ten 12-1 here as a stab and a horse to add $$ to an exacta. Goes 2nd off layoff and turf to dirt . Has races in past that can match the 3 faves. For the exacta it will be picking 2 from 2-Coup De Grace 3-1 , 4-Happy My Way 5-2 , and 5-Sandbar 9-2.
8-Service For Ten 12-1
2-Coup de Grace 3-1
5-Sandbar 9-2
Race 6
Another turf race with a lot of dirt form to decipher and a lot of speed. Sets up well for 12-Justlookatmenow 10-1 who has dirtied up form due to trying to go with the leaders. Won maiden off the pace and think outside draw will allow for that to be an option whereas last race was drawn on rail and had to go.Picking between the speeds is tough if choosing that route. I'm picking between the 2-Hooligan and 6-Nine Sixty. The 2 is probably better but the rail is often a death sentence in 5f turf dashes.
12-Justlookatmenow 10-1
1-Southern Peach 15-1
6-Nine Sixty 5-1
Race 7
Fame And Power looks like a cinch with 3 identical 59 and 1 bullet works coming in. The question is does he really want 2 turns or is he a sprinter? Donworth joins him in clearing up the Lexington Stakes form that Divining Rod brings to the Preakness. If both run lights out that could prop up the Preakness runner just a bit. One of my derby horses was Bold Conquest who shows up here and he has kept superior company to anyone in this field. Another runner that could give a hint at a Preakness runner is 4-Noteworthy Peach 10-1 who ran 2nd to Bodhisattva in the Tesio.Will never be surprised by a Pletcher horse and 3-Outlash is 10-1 here. I'm playing against Fame and Power , could play against both Lexington runners as they were running 1st and 2nd all the way around on a speed favoring track while setting a soft pace and still let Divining Rod pass them both.
5-Bold Conquest 9-2
3-Outlash 10-1
4-Noteworthy Peach 10-1
6-Donworth 2-1
Race 8
Want to like Tru Greek 20-1 with my favorite turf jock on the circuit Karamanos but turf course isn't playing to closers like him and he comes from waaaaay out of it plus trainer in a cold spell. The favorite 10-Loves Last Chance 3-1 could be tough to beat 2nd off bench with some early speed that should play very well this race as there isn't much of it. 8-Battlefront 12-1 was a sprinter in France but often that means they are middle distance turfers here in US. Goes first time Rudy Rod and gets Javi on board to ride could be the play straight up. 2-Soup d'Coupe 12-1 will be coming from off the pace but ran creditibly behind the fave 10 last race and likes to finish ITM.
8-Battlefront 12-1
10-Loves Last Chance 3-1
2-Soup d'Coupe 12-1
Race 9
First things first , Johnny V rides the fave Hard Not To Like for C Clement. They are something ridiculous like 6 for 8 or 7 for 9 in their last 8 or 9 graded stakes with 1 of the losses because they were dq'ed. So they've won every race but 1. That is nuts and they also team up for the other graded stake on grass later in card. So do we just single and pass the race vertically? At least 1 of the 2 has to lose right? Also is the fastest and one of the only early speed horses entered. Would like 3-Emotional Kitten 10-1 a lot on the old Pimlico turf course. Race at SA November 2nd would win this and has only had 1 race since on soft ground. Now 2nd from layoff and jock switch to Rosario. Problem being she is a closer. Then it's between Watsdachances 6-1, and 2 Euro horses making first US start Token Of Love 5-1 and Mango Diva 6-1. Mango Diva won a Group 2 over there 3 races back that would be neck and neck with the 3s best.
3-Emotional Kitten 10-1
7-Hard Not To Like 3-1
10-Mango Diva 6-1
8-Watsdachances 6-1
getting tired so skip to Preakness
Race 13
Think you have to play against any 2 of the top 3 from the derby if you want a worthwhile cash. The Derby had to be taxing on them over a tiring surface and a case could even be made all 3 spit the bit come stretch time. I think Firing Line has a pretty big tactical advantage with the post draw where Pharoah and Dortmond got the worst of it.
8-Firing Line 4-1
4-Danzig Moon 15-1
7-Divining Rod 12-1
6-Bodhisattva 20-1Comment -
Thnx for the write up, gl tomorrowComment -
wow looked like a workout for the #8 FinneganComment -
No one made up ground at all 5 and 6 all the way aroundComment -
nice call on the 3 mikeComment -
thx...still treading water ...need to hit an exacta and probably try 1.5 mil pick 4 ending with preaknessComment -
did you hit that exacta? I keyed the #8 with the 4,5 thought he was going to pass them up the railComment -
booom and just like that $132 exactaComment -
Did u box 2,4,5,8?Comment -
no just 2,5,8
Had Tru Greek no where but he still ran well for 2nd ..$37.60 to place
Don't think I could of had Slip By though. I guess first time gelded worked for a huge improvementComment -
Race 8 $1,128.40 exactaComment -
$1 Super over 50K
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mike i hit the tru greek raceComment -
yea i get you...if i was a superfecta player ....i might of had a shot......b/c i would of put all your horses in .......and i liked tru greek..........i should of hit the tri.......because i love doing all-58/58 or all with 52/52 ..that type of play..... but if everything were if and buts....we would all have a merry christmas........lolComment
