Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

[JBEX]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

might have had just as much to do with the roan drifting out as the 7

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

2nd off layoff (considering debut) , stretching out 1.5f .. both again

but an awful long breather prior to her last race and to lay off mid year off 3 straight wins there must've been a serious issue



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[JBEX]

added another



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[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

[JBEX]

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

this is the jockey's 3rd full year ,low teens win % and over 1k mounts ..not really familiar with the colony but know a few names, main one being patrick husband's .. race was fairly deep with jock talent by the numbers

trainer josie carroll at it for a long time and I believe one of the best at that track so making the right adjustments likely


saw the running line and imo it's very similiar to the one he ran off the long layoff last year..didn't run bad in the following race considering the slow start and crawling pace

put all this together and as you said a good one to keep tabs on and I will

appreciate the feedback as always str

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

By then that roan was all out and I do think the inside horse was out of gears and just running as best as it could. The problem was letting that roan horse get a jump on him in the first place. You have to keep that right eye clear and the outside horse took that away and the inside horse had no gear to gain it back.
Kind of a confusing ride IMO. I think that jockey would love anther chance to do things better.

[str]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

[JBEX]

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





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[str]

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





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Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

[str]

Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

Certainly did try hard. But...11 and 11, 12 and 12, and 13 and 13 were the fractions

This one got cooked on the lead and the rail.

Watch for a better outside post and a possible more relaxed first 1/4 setup next time out.

[JBEX]

army mule ..thursday

how about eight of them



saratoga 7 @ 4:02
danse macabre (9-2)


woodbine 4 @ 4:31
#1 sultry sophie (2-1)
#5 houlihan (4-1)


horseshoe 6 @ 4:45
#9 army fever (8-1)


hawthorne 6 @ 5:47
#4 lemon bomb (6-1)
#7 she's Inthearmynow (9-2)


churchill 7 @ 7:54
#14 hillerito (AE) (6-1)


churchill 8 @ 8:23
#10 flick (10-1)







4:02
4:31
4:45
5:47
7:54
8:23







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[JBEX]

mistake





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[Madison]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

[str]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

thanks madison

popular at the claim box and sure you'd have given him a look back in the day ..take a peek if you get a chance str

[BT RayRay]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

[JBEX]

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

the 8 pack is tomorrow

[JBEX]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

found another at finger lakes

R2 #6 trojan mule (2-1) @ 1:29

[Easy-Rider 66]

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

Hey Ray you want to try something different check out Horse tourneys and derby wars the tournament sites. You get more bang for your buck playing tourneys imo.

[JBEX]

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

[Easy-Rider 66]

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

[JBEX]

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

i don't consider that as an evaluation of my handicapping

I play way too many longshots ..double digit ml's that wind up going off huge odds and that won't cut it long haul .. imo you have to be effective in the 3 to 8-1 range and honestly don't feel I am .. way too many picks also ..would I approach it the same way now if I had the money and time now ..absolutely not but I think all in ,which is obviously not going to happen, I come up short ..I don't "completely" rule out having the time and resources that I couldn't do it .. in all fairness though hypotheticals don't matter .. you either do it or you don't and I haven't