Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

Maybe that's a sign?

Kidding but that's not easy to have happen.

yeah pretty amazing especially posts being the same to the minute ..four 7's also ..we'll see

[str]

army mule .. thursday

gulfstream 7 @ 3:50
#7 militia (12-1)



thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#7 sgt york (5-1)




R7 / #7 / 3:50 .. both horses





.

Militia ran 4th as the longest shot on the board. Lost by 2 1/2 lengths for everything.

Sargent York finished 2nd at 12-1

I hope that readers that are looking for horses to play consider these Army Mules.

There might be other horses by a sire that throws horses that try as hard as AM's do, but I doubt many try any harder.

[str]

Militia ran 4th as the longest shot on the board. Lost by 2 1/2 lengths for everything.

Sargent York finished 2nd at 12-1

I hope that readers that are looking for horses to play consider these Army Mules.

There might be other horses by a sire that throws horses that try as hard as AM's do, but I doubt many try any harder.

To take this a step further, if I was to only look at races that had an Army Mule running in it, I have to think I could cherry pick the stuffing out of that situation.

I suggest trying that if you are looking to spot play the races.

[JBEX]

couple AM going tonight


charlestown 1 @ 7pm
#1 blanches mule (4-1)


charlestown 3 @ 8:02
#6 proud mule (4-1)

[str]

couple AM going tonight


charlestown 1 @ 7pm
#1 blanches mule (4-1)


charlestown 3 @ 8:02
#6 proud mule (4-1)

I have not seen a form but this is exactly what I’m talking about.

[Optional]

My brother has two horses running tonight (USA time) in Australia.

Both are resuming from decent length spells.


10:10pm ET Rosehill Race 3 #5 Khumbila opened at 13/1 no big expectations. Several good types in race and barrier 8 of 14 not ideal. Waiting to hear the trainers report but race quality might be tough for him imho.

9:50pm ET Kembla Grange Race 1 #7 In Limbo opened at 12/1 but good chance it will end up jumping as favorite if the track condition is upgraded from the overnight Heavy 8 rating, as expected it should be.


I'm just having an interest bet on Khumbila , maybe standout in a couple of exotics. But as soon as a local book offers fixed price odds on In Limbo I plan to risk a good size bet on that. Hoping to get anything better than 7/1.

[JBEX]

army mule..saturday

woodbine 9 @ 5:17
#6 stanley house (12-1)


_________________



one of our follow from the beginning horses like deterministic (neither by army mule)

world record (3-1)
cd 6 @ 3:18

[JBEX]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

[str]

With the inside and outside speeds, this could easily set up well for World Record. Makes sense too me.

Depending on the price, absolutely.

I'm struggling to find the pp's for Stanley House. Web... I can't find. Help if you can.

[Easy-Rider 66]

With the inside and outside speeds, this could easily set up well for World Record. Makes sense too me.

Depending on the price, absolutely.

I'm struggling to find the pp's for Stanley House. Web... I can't find. Help if you can.

constitution

[Madison]

army mule..saturday

woodbine 9 @ 5:17
#6 stanley house (12-1)


_________________



one of our follow from the beginning horses like deterministic (neither by army mule)

world record (3-1)
cd 6 @ 3:18

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

[Madison]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

[str]

constitution

Thanks EZ. Great to see you in here.was getting ready to send a wellness check to you.

This race is kind of frustrating to get a handle on. It looks to me that the two best speed horses are both Cassie’s horses. I cannot imagine he would allow those two to hook up and duel so the pace set up is a bit muddy in my opinion.
With a hot pace , that opens it up for several of these to run late, but why would there be a hot pace? Casse certainly does not want that. So it is hard for me without knowing how the race might set up to say that I like the army mule horse in here. Under certain situations there would be a chance that I could. But not the kind of race that I want to confidently say that I’d like anyone because truth be told, in set ups like this, My lean always has to go towards the speed if I think it is going to be solo and , or walk the dog scenario, meaning a slow early pace therefore helping the speed and hurting the closers chances.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

[JBEX]

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

I wouldn't say poor form..tough to break from the 11 post in the bc sprint ..other than that ,wins or close 2nd every time including the race in saudi arabia

[JBEX]

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

[JBEX]

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

[str]

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

I would consider acting like I’m riding to make the r lead with WR and make Skelly burn early. Let him work to clear, go 21 and change , then stalk and get in his right eye at the top of the stretch.
easier said than done but at least you avoid a harsh duel.
of course everything is the break is everything so the rider needs to have more than one thought in his head.

[str]

Lost track of time. Did not know it had just run.

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

[str]

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

I assumed that. Kind of my point about crazy fractions early when you find that kind of setup. If you cherry pick those races you are going to find big pricing with closers .
same in the other direction with a pace less race or solo speed. Searching for those and finding them is awesome.
It would be a must try for me. You need patience but a few nice payouts will fix any doubts that it is not possible. It has to be I would think.

[JBEX]

I would consider acting like I’m riding to make the r lead with WR and make Skelly burn early. Let him work to clear, go 21 and change , then stalk and get in his right eye at the top of the stretch.
easier said than done but at least you avoid a harsh duel.
of course everything is the break is everything so the rider needs to have more than one thought in his head.

that's how it happened imo

[JBEX]

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

I wouldn't say poor form..tough to break from the 11 post in the bc sprint ..other than that ,wins or close 2nd every time including the race in saudi arabia

sorry madison..I read it as "poor form" rather than poor from

[str]

that's how it happened imo

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

[str]

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

I have to learn how to post pictures again. Still have a set of programs from the meeting I won at Bowie in 79.
All the instructions I wrote on my program for every horse I ran starts with “ ride away”.
Even the closers. It was just elbows flailing around. Not actually pushing unless we wanted the lead. The hands stayed still on the reigns.

[JBEX]

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

not sure if it's a good analogy but similiar to a pitcher throwing a change-up

[str]

not sure if it's a good analogy but similiar to a pitcher throwing a change-up

Sure. Make the other riders abort any notion of relax from the beginning and hopefully it shows up at the 1/8th pole when they fade a bit and mine is coming on.
CJ was a star doing that when he had the bug.
an incredible edge sometimes.

All the little things JBEX. So lucky to learn from Dickie.
And Chris.

[JBEX]

Sure. Make the other riders abort any notion of relax from the beginning and hopefully it shows up at the 1/8th pole when they fade a bit and mine is coming on.
CJ was a star doing that when he had the bug.
an incredible edge sometimes.

All the little things JBEX. So lucky to learn from Dickie.
And Chris.

yes little things like that turn 2nds or worse into wins .. you had excellent teachers in those you mentioned

[JBEX]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

of course not today..that comment included class level which I should have mentioned ..not talking 3 or 4 efforts but about last 7 prior to today

[JBEX]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

[str]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

[str]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

[JBEX]

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

my guess would be the conditions for that type of alw race would attract a stakes quality field as it would have to be an appealing spot to start off a yearly campaign for that caliber of horse ..pretty sure,but not certain, they have done that in the not so distant past but possibly goes back a decade or two

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

I think the alfred vanderbilt (grade 2) on 7/19 at the spa is the next logical spot for him..went from churchill to saratoga last year and won the amsterdam stakes for 3yo only (grade 2)