Horse Racing questions and answers

[Madison]

Los AL R9 #3 Grateful My Love

If anyone could help, please take a look at this 2YR old female. Last start, and 2nd, was BC Juvenile (Unexpected Entry?) with a quite impressive run. Going from 6-7-8F today. She tracked the #1 (FAV) down like she was standing still late.

Thinking of making a play. All help much appreciated.

BOL!!

[str]

If anyone could help, please take a look at this 2YR old female. Last start, and 2nd, was BC Juvenile (Unexpected Entry?) with a quite impressive run. Going from 6-7-8F today. She tracked the #1 (FAV) down like she was standing still late.

Thinking of making a play. All help much appreciated.

BOL!!

I cannot find then form for the race but let me ask.

She has run twice. Once at 6F and once at 7F. Those were both one turn races? I assume so.

How about today? Is the 1 mile race out of a chute or a 2 turn race ?

[Madison]

I cannot find then form for the race but let me ask.

She has run twice. Once at 6F and once at 7F. Those were both one turn races? I assume so.

How about today? Is the 1 mile race out of a chute or a 2 turn race ?

Sorry, my friend, I'm not astute enough or have the proper info to answer your question. I just found it of interest that she went from a first start 6f 5th to the BC 7f closing gamely.

[JBEX]

Sorry, my friend, I'm not astute enough or have the proper info to answer your question. I just found it of interest that she went from a first start 6f 5th to the BC 7f closing gamely.

I can't see the pp's either but lot's of time a horse can make radical improvements in its 2nd start..sometimes the debut is nothing more than some experience and fitness .. lot's of trainers don't tighten them up to win first out ..they still can but it would be the horses exceptional talent overcoming the lack of conditioning..learned this last part from str



.

[Madison]

I can't see the pp's either but lot's of time a horse can make radical improvements in its 2nd start..sometimes the debut is nothing more than some experience and fitness .. lot's of trainers don't tighten them up to win first out ..they still can but it would be the horses exceptional talent overcoming the lack of conditioning..learned this last part from str



.

Agreed, why I think this is one we may be wishing we took 3-1.

[Madison]

I can't see the pp's either but lot's of time a horse can make radical improvements in its 2nd start..sometimes the debut is nothing more than some experience and fitness .. lot's of trainers don't tighten them up to win first out ..they still can but it would be the horses exceptional talent overcoming the lack of conditioning..learned this last part from str



.

One thing to warm them up and another to make their second start the BC Juvenile.

[batt33]

I cannot find then form for the race but let me ask.

She has run twice. Once at 6F and once at 7F. Those were both one turn races? I assume so.

How about today? Is the 1 mile race out of a chute or a 2 turn race ?

I'm down visiting the parents... los Al quarters at night is our thing

it's a 2 turn race.

I actually just checked in to say "Did you see the Army mule " in race 7 at los al? won by half the length of the home stretch! 2 year old Filly ( Oveta's hobby)

[Madison]

Can't get a break. 3-1 ML, 6/5 opening bell.

[Madison]

Can't get a break. 3-1 ML, 6/5 opening bell.

Betting her like's she secretariat.

[JBEX]

I'm down visiting the parents... los Al quarters at night is our thing

it's a 2 turn race.

I actually just checked in to say "Did you see the Army mule " in race 7 at los al? won by half the length of the home stretch! 2 year old Filly ( Oveta's hobby)

just watched the replay .. a route in a sprint pun intended lol..thanks for letting us know
batt

my guess is they'll give an allowance at santa anita a try although that is a big step up in class ..have to keep an eye out for her



.

[str]

I'm down visiting the parents... los Al quarters at night is our thing

it's a 2 turn race.

I actually just checked in to say "Did you see the Army mule " in race 7 at los al? won by half the length of the home stretch! 2 year old Filly ( Oveta's hobby)

Can't get a break. 3-1 ML, 6/5 opening bell.

Betting her like's she secretariat.

So my rule is, I do not care who the horse is. If they have never run 2 turns before, you cannot necessarily expect the same thing as what you see in 1 turn races. It's apples and oranges. Totally different things.

Sure, the ability might overwhelm the field, but I personally would not bet on an odds on horse going 2 turns for the first time. You have very little to gain with those odds and you have to overcome additional risks. So those additional risks in my mind do not make a terribly short price worth the added risk.

At a price? Sure. But not odds on.

That is my 2 cents.

GL.

[str]

So my rule is, I do not care who the horse is. If they have never run 2 turns before, you cannot necessarily expect the same thing as what you see in 1 turn races. It's apples and oranges. Totally different things.

Sure, the ability might overwhelm the field, but I personally would not bet on an odds on horse going 2 turns for the first time. You have very little to gain with those odds and you have to overcome additional risks. So those additional risks in my mind do not make a terribly short price worth the added risk.

At a price? Sure. But not odds on.

That is my 2 cents.

GL.

I think this response was past posted. If so, sorry about that.

I honestly had no clue when this race was running.

Either way, I did not know the result and I stick firmly by what I said.

Hope it makes sense.

[Madison]

So my rule is, I do not care who the horse is. If they have never run 2 turns before, you cannot necessarily expect the same thing as what you see in 1 turn races. It's apples and oranges. Totally different things.

Sure, the ability might overwhelm the field, but I personally would not bet on an odds on horse going 2 turns for the first time. You have very little to gain with those odds and you have to overcome additional risks. So those additional risks in my mind do not make a terribly short price worth the added risk.

At a price? Sure. But not odds on.

That is my 2 cents.

GL.

I only bet the Money Back Special, so price saved me. Didn't run as expected at first glance. I usually review my weekend stable entries on Monday.

Thanks for the feedback.

[str]

I only bet the Money Back Special, so price saved me. Didn't run as expected at first glance. I usually review my weekend stable entries on Monday.

Thanks for the feedback.

Taking every edge to increase your overall percentage.

I think that is really smart.

[str]

This is my yearly reminder that for cold weather venues that by now cushion has been added, albeit slowly, over the last month. As a result, colder temperatures will beg for more grading of the surface, and more passes with the harrows. That will move cushion downwards and towards the inside.

The bottom line is; a strong bias for or against the inside will show up if for instance, the track was dry but heavy rain was in the forecast. As we know by now, you can't grade mud, so that cushion has to be pushed up prior to rain.

Look for oddities. Like a 1,2,3, finishes or if the outside is better because they could not grade before the weather, a 9,10,11,12 finish. Not always but often in the winter, that is just NOT a coincidence.

Watch the replay's to verify where those top finishers were during their runs. Keep notes on heavy bias days. Use them next out when a horse shows up with a "with the bias" or vs. The bias performance, and bet accordingly.
Is this perfect? No. Nothing is, but it can unlock longshots that had an excuse you realize but others do not or, it can give you play against horses that ran great last out but on a fair track, probably won't.

GL . Happy hunting. And I hope you trust me on this one. It really works and is usually well worth the effort put in.

Any questions about this, let me know.

[batt33]

This is my yearly reminder that for cold weather venues that by now cushion has been added, albeit slowly, over the last month. As a result, colder temperatures will beg for more grading of the surface, and more passes with the harrows. That will move cushion downwards and towards the inside.

The bottom line is; a strong bias for or against the inside will show up if for instance, the track was dry but heavy rain was in the forecast. As we know by now, you can't grade mud, so that cushion has to be pushed up prior to rain.

Look for oddities. Like a 1,2,3, finishes or if the outside is better because they could not grade before the weather, a 9,10,11,12 finish. Not always but often in the winter, that is just NOT a coincidence.

Watch the replay's to verify where those top finishers were during their runs. Keep notes on heavy bias days. Use them next out when a horse shows up with a "with the bias" or vs. The bias performance, and bet accordingly.
Is this perfect? No. Nothing is, but it can unlock longshots that had an excuse you realize but others do not or, it can give you play against horses that ran great last out but on a fair track, probably won't.

GL . Happy hunting. And I hope you trust me on this one. It really works and is usually well worth the effort put in.

Any questions about this, let me know.

Thanks for the reminder!

[batt33]

Caldera racing Friday at oaklawn.[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Race Preview Video[/COLOR]Members of the MRH racing team take an in-depth look at Caldera's race Friday in the accompanying video. We hope you enjoy this different format.
Click here for past performances.
While we won't get a chance to see how he does before Caldera runs, note that Speed King--the horse who won Caldera's debut race--is the 7-2 morning-line favorite in Friday night's $300K Springboard Mile at Remington Park.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071/MP4/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071.mp4

[batt33]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Straight No Chaser Update

Trainer Dan Blacker provided an update on Straight No Chaser this morning. Everything continues in good order for your colt and we expect to see him back on the work tab at the end of the month.

https://youtu.be/y8lnbdMe19s

[/COLOR]

[batt33]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Nakoma Breeze Report
[/COLOR]
Nakoma turned in a very nice 3/8 breeze this morning, covering that distance in :36.59 (4/18) while working solo at Gulfstream Park. She was very professional and traveled nicely throughout--definitely a solid return to the work tab.https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...3701376662.mp4

[JBEX]

This is my yearly reminder that for cold weather venues that by now cushion has been added, albeit slowly, over the last month. As a result, colder temperatures will beg for more grading of the surface, and more passes with the harrows. That will move cushion downwards and towards the inside.

The bottom line is; a strong bias for or against the inside will show up if for instance, the track was dry but heavy rain was in the forecast. As we know by now, you can't grade mud, so that cushion has to be pushed up prior to rain.

Look for oddities. Like a 1,2,3, finishes or if the outside is better because they could not grade before the weather, a 9,10,11,12 finish. Not always but often in the winter, that is just NOT a coincidence.

Watch the replay's to verify where those top finishers were during their runs. Keep notes on heavy bias days. Use them next out when a horse shows up with a "with the bias" or vs. The bias performance, and bet accordingly.
Is this perfect? No. Nothing is, but it can unlock longshots that had an excuse you realize but others do not or, it can give you play against horses that ran great last out but on a fair track, probably won't.

GL . Happy hunting. And I hope you trust me on this one. It really works and is usually well worth the effort put in.

Any questions about this, let me know.

this does confuse me a bit..is grading the same as pushing up and if so wouldn't doing the same procedure before rain make the bias always on the same part of the track ?

[str]

Caldera racing Friday at oaklawn.[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Race Preview Video[/COLOR]Members of the MRH racing team take an in-depth look at Caldera's race Friday in the accompanying video. We hope you enjoy this different format.
Click here for past performances.
While we won't get a chance to see how he does before Caldera runs, note that Speed King--the horse who won Caldera's debut race--is the 7-2 morning-line favorite in Friday night's $300K Springboard Mile at Remington Park.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071/MP4/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071.mp4

From what little there is to see of the horses he will be competing against, I usually view a race like this as more of a 'how will my horse adapt to 2 turns ? How will my horse improve mentally after that 1st start." I have no clue if any of these others can run or to what extent and honestly, when I did this stuff, I could care less about the others. For me, it was ALL about my horse and the mental and physical progression my horse will make from race #1 , to race #2. I did not listen to the handicapping segment, just looked at the form. I think this race is not about handicapping as far as your horse is concerned.
It seems like a good spot to go two turns. It also seems like a great opportunity for your horse to mentally thrive if he is up to it. He most likely is, but you never know for sure until you try.
I think in this spot Batt, where he actually finishes is secondary. I think the most important thing is how he mentally as well as physically runs this race. So for me, and the trainer I am sure and for you as well Batt, let's see how he handles every different thing he has to deal with. Two turns, relax and find his stride, await commands from the riders hands, etc.
I remember people asking me after I had stretched out a baby in it's 2nd or 3rd start, did you bet on it? I usually just said no. But in reality I did bet on it. I bet a lot on it. I bet what I had paid for the horse at auction, all the upkeep and months of training, everything we all put into the horse and my standing with those owners in their confidence or not, in me. So yeah, I bet a heck of a lot. Just not at the windows.

I think , that is where you find yourself today Batt. Today is what you have been waiting for IMO. So let's watch and see how he does. Not just where he finishes but HOW he runs and finishes. That will be the 1st clue to how this story might play out.
A very exciting race for you IMO. It won't tell the whole story. But it will start to. Can't wait to watch it and see how he does. We will look for the little things. The pluses and minuses within the effort.
GL Batt. Always exciting to stretch one out for the first time.

[str]

this does confuse me a bit..is grading the same as pushing up and if so wouldn't doing the same procedure before rain make the bias always on the same part of the track ?

Basically yes, it is the same thing. But they are grading all the way to the crown of the track which is well out from where the horses run. They are trying to get the depth the same as they go away from the rail all the way out. So in theory, the track is the same depth out to the just about the crown. Where the depth comes in later is, that as that dirt pushed out starts to trickle downward which gravity makes it do, ever so little with each passing by of the harrows, that dirt starts to trickle back.

After the first trip around, the driver will hop out of the grader and measure the depth he has left after the first swipe. Hopefully he gets it perfect, but nobody is always perfect, so sometimes when there is so much cushion like in the winter when added cushion has been applied, they miss, ever so slightly, but they miss. They have to adjust the blade accordingly to get it right. But the inside depth cannot be readjusted at that moment as time is ticking for the 1st race and they need to finish at a set time. They cannot have way too much left at the crown, wider than the races run, or it would become very dangerous for the horse and rider. It would be a bog or trip hazard.
So we are talking about an 1/8th of an inch or so. But as you have seen, that adds up over the length of the race.

It will always be deeper way out from the rail, and not dangerously so, where a horse would trip or stumble, but deeper. That is designed to be further out than where the horse fan out to when running. More like about 2/3's to 3/4's of the width of the track. To the tip of the crown which if you look for it, you can see it but it does not stand out like a sore thumb.

So if a small but significant mistake has been made, it is always the 1st swipe around. The width of the blade is about 2/3 paths from under the rail out. But even then, that blade is angled further down to the left , or inside and the graders drive counterclockwise, so the same direction that the horses run in the race.

That is what can create a bias for the inside path. Hope that makes sense and you can somewhat visualize what I am talking about. If not, let me know and I will work to better explain it. Heck, I can go to Laurel around 10:45 on a race day and video it if necessary.

[str]

this does confuse me a bit..is grading the same as pushing up and if so wouldn't doing the same procedure before rain make the bias always on the same part of the track ?

Not if they get the measurements correct but it is a very fine line between correct and off by an 1/8th of an inch on a road grader. So sure, the inside would be the best part of the track if a mistake was made. That would stay that way until enough passes by the harrows had redistributed some of the dirt back downward. Sometimes half the card, sometimes not until the next day. Just depends on the severity of the mistake.
Does that makes sense?

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Nakoma Breeze Report
[/COLOR]
Nakoma turned in a very nice 3/8 breeze this morning, covering that distance in :36.59 (4/18) while working solo at Gulfstream Park. She was very professional and traveled nicely throughout--definitely a solid return to the work tab.https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...3701376662.mp4

Aw. They cut it off just before switching back to the left lead. She looked fine but wanted to see that gallop out. All good, we will see plenty down the road.
Thanks Batt.

[JBEX]

Basically yes, it is the same thing. But they are grading all the way to the crown of the track which is well out from where the horses run. They are trying to get the depth the same as they go away from the rail all the way out. So in theory, the track is the same depth out to the just about the crown. Where the depth comes in later is, that as that dirt pushed out starts to trickle downward which gravity makes it do, ever so little with each passing by of the harrows, that dirt starts to trickle back.

After the first trip around, the driver will hop out of the grader and measure the depth he has left after the first swipe. Hopefully he gets it perfect, but nobody is always perfect, so sometimes when there is so much cushion like in the winter when added cushion has been applied, they miss, ever so slightly, but they miss. They have to adjust the blade accordingly to get it right. But the inside depth cannot be readjusted at that moment as time is ticking for the 1st race and they need to finish at a set time. They cannot have way too much left at the crown, wider than the races run, or it would become very dangerous for the horse and rider. It would be a bog or trip hazard.
So we are talking about an 1/8th of an inch or so. But as you have seen, that adds up over the length of the race.

It will always be deeper way out from the rail, and not dangerously so, where a horse would trip or stumble, but deeper. That is designed to be further out than where the horse fan out to when running. More like about 2/3's to 3/4's of the width of the track. To the tip of the crown which if you look for it, you can see it but it does not stand out like a sore thumb.

So if a small but significant mistake has been made, it is always the 1st swipe around. The width of the blade is about 2/3 paths from under the rail out. But even then, that blade is angled further down to the left , or inside and the graders drive counterclockwise, so the same direction that the horses run in the race.

That is what can create a bias for the inside path. Hope that makes sense and you can somewhat visualize what I am talking about. If not, let me know and I will work to better explain it. Heck, I can go to Laurel around 10:45 on a race day and video it if necessary.

Not if they get the measurements correct but it is a very fine line between correct and off by an 1/8th of an inch on a road grader. So sure, the inside would be the best part of the track if a mistake was made. That would stay that way until enough passes by the harrows had redistributed some of the dirt back downward. Sometimes half the card, sometimes not until the next day. Just depends on the severity of the mistake.
Does that makes sense?

it's amazing that an eigthth of an inch difference can cause a bias but on the other hand can see how over the course of a race that effect adds up..can see how the extra cushion added in the winter can make getting a perfectly (or let's say < ⅛ inch) uniform surface more tricky

the track condition gets me confused..so this can be the case on a wet or dry track
..if the job was a fraction off before the rain the bias will be magnified after it while they're running on the off track ?

[Madison]

If anyone could help, please take a look at this 2YR old female. Last start, and 2nd, was BC Juvenile (Unexpected Entry?) with a quite impressive run. Going from 6-7-8F today. She tracked the #1 (FAV) down like she was standing still late.

Thinking of making a play. All help much appreciated.

BOL!!

I've watched the replay several times and think you gentlemen are right about 2 turns at LOS AL. She had an erratic run through the turns. When you look back at her 3 races, placing, odds etc I'm very curious about the next start.

Thanks for the feedback.

[Madison]

Mr STR,

Would you kindly make a short perspective on who gets sent south and who stays the winter meet. Thx!

[JBEX]

army mule ... 3yo msw @ 6f ..turfway R7 #5 cassiopeia (12-1) @ 8:05

don't cap these but anybody else is welcome to good or bad on the AM..feel any AM is worth a bet ..way you catch the surprises





.

[JBEX]

it's R7 (5 mins after)..had it as R8

[batt33]

From what little there is to see of the horses he will be competing against, I usually view a race like this as more of a 'how will my horse adapt to 2 turns ? How will my horse improve mentally after that 1st start." I have no clue if any of these others can run or to what extent and honestly, when I did this stuff, I could care less about the others. For me, it was ALL about my horse and the mental and physical progression my horse will make from race #1 , to race #2. I did not listen to the handicapping segment, just looked at the form. I think this race is not about handicapping as far as your horse is concerned.
It seems like a good spot to go two turns. It also seems like a great opportunity for your horse to mentally thrive if he is up to it. He most likely is, but you never know for sure until you try.
I think in this spot Batt, where he actually finishes is secondary. I think the most important thing is how he mentally as well as physically runs this race. So for me, and the trainer I am sure and for you as well Batt, let's see how he handles every different thing he has to deal with. Two turns, relax and find his stride, await commands from the riders hands, etc.
I remember people asking me after I had stretched out a baby in it's 2nd or 3rd start, did you bet on it? I usually just said no. But in reality I did bet on it. I bet a lot on it. I bet what I had paid for the horse at auction, all the upkeep and months of training, everything we all put into the horse and my standing with those owners in their confidence or not, in me. So yeah, I bet a heck of a lot. Just not at the windows.

I think , that is where you find yourself today Batt. Today is what you have been waiting for IMO. So let's watch and see how he does. Not just where he finishes but HOW he runs and finishes. That will be the 1st clue to how this story might play out.
A very exciting race for you IMO. It won't tell the whole story. But it will start to. Can't wait to watch it and see how he does. We will look for the little things. The pluses and minuses within the effort.
GL Batt. Always exciting to stretch one out for the first time.

Thanks STR I appreciate your honesty and response....I truly get.... your answer... as a trainer or bloodstock agent....and have honest integrity for your client you hope the horse runs its best

That being said.... " hope runs enteral" go Caldera go!

[JBEX]

Caldera racing Friday at oaklawn.[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Race Preview Video[/COLOR]Members of the MRH racing team take an in-depth look at Caldera's race Friday in the accompanying video. We hope you enjoy this different format.
Click here for past performances.
While we won't get a chance to see how he does before Caldera runs, note that Speed King--the horse who won Caldera's debut race--is the 7-2 morning-line favorite in Friday night's $300K Springboard Mile at Remington Park.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071/MP4/CalderaRacePreview_1733956488071.mp4

I think he gets it done batt..a below avg field that doesn't have a good 2 turn dirt effort amongst them .. I like caldera's even run in his sprint debut as a race to stretchout off ..my value horse is #6 stiglets (12-1)..36 exacta probably paying around 60 for a deuce




.


.

[JBEX]

I think he gets it done batt..a below avg field that doesn't have a good 2 turn dirt effort amongst them .. I like caldera's even run in his sprint debut as a race to stretchout off ..my value horse is #6 stiglets (12-1)..36 exacta probably paying around 60 for a deuce




.


.

even if he doesn't do it today a win next out would probably put him on the derby prep path .. oaklawn has 4 races starting in late january and certainly could miss the first one whether he wins or loses today (then wins next one)

[str]

Mr STR,

Would you kindly make a short perspective on who gets sent south and who stays the winter meet. Thx!

That list changes from year to year for many. Obviously Pletcher, and that crowd will have stalls in Florida. Some will go to Oaklawn. I even saw that Linda Rice will have a string in the south this year. I think it is the Fairgrounds.

So you just have to look around but I would start with who is left at Aqueduct. Once you establish that, you can search for the others.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

[batt33]

I think he gets it done batt..a below avg field that doesn't have a good 2 turn dirt effort amongst them .. I like caldera's even run in his sprint debut as a race to stretchout off ..my value horse is #6 stiglets (12-1)..36 exacta probably paying around 60 for a deuce




.


.

hope so! I have the 2 /5 underneath

[batt33]

even if he doesn't do it today a win next out would probably put him on the derby prep path .. oaklawn has 4 races starting in late january and certainly could miss the first one whether he wins or loses today (then wins next one)

True! I just hope he runs well!