Drf race of the day discussion

[mrginandtonic]

Well, the Race of the Day tomoorrow is the Kentucky Derby going 1 1/4 dirt. I will talk about it tomorrow, but there is a Oaks/Derby Double, I am gonna put a few $ on a few long shots.

KENTUCKY OAKS: 8- Aurelia's Belle, 9-Unbridled Forever, 13-Untapable
KENTUCKY DERBY: 5-California Chrome, 13-Chitu, 14-Medal Count, 20-Wicked Song

The problem with this year's double, there are two seeming strong favorites so the only way to make some $ is to hope that one the long shots will shock us. $2 bet will cost $24, so hopefully not both favorites come in.

[mrginandtonic]

Finally, Kentucky Derby weekend!!! DRF Race of the Day: Kentucky Oaks R11, 1 1/8 on dirt.

The 13-Untapable is the morning heavy favorite 4-5. What can you say about this filly, two back to back 100+ beyer speed figures, has tactical speed and draws away at the end. Impressive resume. So what is not to like about her?? may be the post position, but at 1 1/8 with her style, it proably won't be that much of a compromise. In fact, it may help her from running into traffic problem. So I guess the question is who is gonna run second?! There is a lot of talks about 4-Rosalind and 11-My Miss Sophia. I like them too, but I will put them to 3rd or 4th. For second, I am gonna go with the 8-Aurelia's Belle and 9-Unbridled Forever. They both have tactical speed and should get a good trip just behind the front runners. Turning for home, I expect the 8, 9 and the 13 to be in the mix with the 4 flying at the end. I personally likes the 8-Aurelia's Belle alot because she is by Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) and Aurelia (Danzig) and she is 50-1 ML, I really think she will get better with distance. Also, 9-Unbridled Forever, is by Unbridled's Song (Unbridled) and Lemons Forever (Lemon Drop Kid). I gonna do exacta box 8,9,13 and 4 and trifectas and superfectas keying 8 and 9 with some others. Hopefully, one of the long shots will come in.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. GL all!!

Untapable was much best yesterday. Too bad the 9-unbridled forever couldn't get second otherwise the payout would be much better.

Today's Race of the Day is The Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 Dirt. This is without a doubt the most intriguing race of the year and every year. The reason is that they are 3 yr old and who know how they will improve or regress at a young age. Second, it is 1 1/4 mile. Demanding distance for these youngsters. Third, 20 entries max, more than any other race in America. On paper, CC looks most promising but 5-2 ML. He could be like Utapable where he is just so much better. Who can run with him?? My Oaks/Derby double were CC, Chitu, Medal Count, Wicked Strong. Instead of discussing about each entries, I'm just gonna discuss why I like the ones that I like. Stamina is the key feature that I look at first. Most of these are not bred to going 1 1/4. To me, you need to be bred to go long in order to 1 1/4 for the first time. That alone eliminates a lot of the entries. No need to talk about CC, cuz there is so much discussion already. Lets talk about Chitu. I think there is a possibility that he may be a freak coming into its own. He has improved every start and only 4 starts. Already broke the 100 beyer mark, 20-1 ML. Medal count bred to go long but his best race are on synthetic so dirt is a concern. Wicked strong is another one that broke 100 beyer which is plus for me. He is also bred to the distance. Concern is the post but he should be able to stay out of traffic problems. Only 8-1 ML, hopefully he will be a little higher. Everyone has their arguments on each horse but that is what I think. I think the one one that can avoid trouble will have the best chance. Will the pace be fast?? This is a question mark?? On paper it seems like the pace will be swift. But if no one really press Chitu, I think he has the best shot. Gonna box these 4 in exacta and throw a few more in for tri.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ Good analysis. Can see Chitu being another Bodemeister/Hard Spun if he does not get caught up in the projected speed duel. He Has a lot of stamina influences in his female bloodlines. Beholder is by his sire Henny Hughes and she has shown no distance limitations at 1 1/8 miles. Playing him to win/place at 26/1 currently. Good luck.

[mrginandtonic]

Tks easy-rider. Hopefully we can win some money. Either way it will be an exciting race.

[mrginandtonic]

Sometime when we all look to beat the favorite, yet we are blinded the fact the favorite is the best horse. A lesson learned. Till next time, GL all.

[mrginandtonic]

5/4 DRF Race of the day: Santa Anita R4 Honeymoon 1 1/8 on Turf. There are only 6 horses and there are two heavy favorites. So I am hoping for the 3- One More at 8-1 ML. On paper she is the lone speed and she has improved in each start beyer wise. She lost to the two favorites last time but I think she had a good reason. She drew post 10 and did not get the lead that she usually likes. So hopefully this time will be different.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day for 5/10 is the Peter Pan @ Belmont going 1 1/8 on dirt. There are only 7 horses entered and I can't really decide who to take. I think they all have a chance. So, I am gonna take a shot at the 6-Our Caravan, 5-1 ML. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of pace in this one, the 2-Fabulous Kid looks like the lone speed, but I think the 6 will be close to him and hopefully will get first run at him just like the way he ran his last race. Also, the 6 and the 3 are the only two horses that has run in graded company. Class, pace and beyer seem to fit.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[no1here]

Black Eye Susan

Ticket#:2503143 May 16 01:18 PM	May 16 01:18:15 PM	RAC	Racing ticket #180976 May-16 PIM R10 1.00 SBR TRI 3,5,9/3,4,5,8,9/2,3,4,5,8,9	48.00 / 0.00
Ticket#:2503144 May 16 01:18 PM	May 16 01:18:40 PM	RAC	Racing ticket #180977 May-16 PIM R10 2.00 SBR TRI 3,5,9/3,4,5,8,9/3,4,5,8,9	72.00 / 0.00
Ticket#:2503146 May 16 01:20 PM	May 16 01:20:31 PM	RAC	Racing ticket #180979 May-16 PIM R10 1.00 SBR SPR 3,5,9/3,4,5,8,9/2,3,4,5,8,9/2,3,4,5,8,9	144.00 / 0.00

[TonyP]

IM using the #6 in black eyed susan

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for posting your picks guys. Wish more folks can give their inputs.

Today, DRF Race of the Day: The Preakness. There are a lot of talks about SI, General a Rod, ROC, Bayern. I really don't see it. I think CC is just better than them. So what long shots am I playing?? At first glance, 7-Kid Cruz looks real good. I can picture him coming on late, but can see the win. The way I envision this race is that the front runners will go and the tactical speed horses will get the first crack at them coming for home. So my picks are: 3- California Chrome and the 1- Dynamic Impact. I know everyone is talking about the inside post and all, but I think they will have enough tactical speed to outside and around them coming for home. At least that is the picture that I have in my head. Gonna box 1-3 and tri 1,3/1,3/all. And a small W/P bet on the 1.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. GL everyone.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Mr. G&T- You scored with Wicked Strong, Danza and Imperative lately. In a contest. Need to take a shot and going with your choice Dynamic or Kid Cruz. Have to see where the odds go. Dynamic ran his best race last out in Illinois Derby. Has improved a lot on 2 year old form. GL

[mrginandtonic]

Mr. G&T- You scored with Wicked Strong, Danza and Imperative lately. In a contest. Need to take a shot and going with your choice Dynamic or Kid Cruz. Have to see where the odds go. Dynamic ran his best race last out in Illinois Derby. Has improved a lot on 2 year old form. GL

GL, hopefully we can all make some $$$

[TonyP]

after CC everyone else just running for place, I taking a shot with A Rod underneath

[mrginandtonic]

Gonna make $5 win bet just for kicks on the 9 just be ause it is own by team magneir and tabor.

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for posting your picks guys. Wish more folks can give their inputs.

Today, DRF Race of the Day: The Preakness. There are a lot of talks about SI, General a Rod, ROC, Bayern. I really don't see it. I think CC is just better than them. So what long shots am I playing?? At first glance, 7-Kid Cruz looks real good. I can picture him coming on late, but can see the win. The way I envision this race is that the front runners will go and the tactical speed horses will get the first crack at them coming for home. So my picks are: 3- California Chrome and the 1- Dynamic Impact. I know everyone is talking about the inside post and all, but I think they will have enough tactical speed to outside and around them coming for home. At least that is the picture that I have in my head. Gonna box 1-3 and tri 1,3/1,3/all. And a small W/P bet on the 1.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. GL everyone.

As expected, California Chrome went to the front behind the front runners. Turn for home, and no one can keep up. I think Dynamic Impact was too concern about the rail, didn't break alertly, and was taking to the outside and wide. I think he should have done what CC did and see how far he can go with CC. Oh well, till next time. GL all.

[TonyP]

Espinoza gave a good ride on CC , moved over then shiifted a bit more so he wouldnt be next to rail then when asked he took off and none of them up close at that point finished close enough to be a threat.

[mrginandtonic]

Espinoza gave a good ride on CC , moved over then shiifted a bit more so he wouldnt be next to rail then when asked he took off and none of them up close at that point finished close enough to be a threat.

I agree and I think victor really knows his horse and place him where he wants. Maybe we will see the next triple crown. I don't think CC is a superhorse but he is a notch above his classmates. People are talking about Tonalist is the best 3 yo old. I'm curious to see his PP.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day: The Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 Mile Dirt.

2-California Chrome is my pick. I just think he is better than his classmates. There are a lot of discussion in regards to his ability to get 1 1/2, and he got clean trips in the Derby and Preakness, and other horses coming in fresh, and history is against him. I understand why people have these different opinions. Nonetheless, I try and try to read the form like I usually do and treat it like a regular G1 race and not think how the whole triple crown thing. I still cannot see anyone that can beat him. So, I guess I will just stick with my original Derby Picks:

2-California Chrome, 1-Medal Count, 9-Wicked Song

So if I have to pick a horse that might beat him, I would have to pick a horse that doesn't make any sense at all. That is the 6-Matuszak. I mean why is this horse even running in a triple crown race?? He barely broke his maiden in his first race and hasn't won since. Why in the world is he competing for the biggest race of his life so far with that form?? So I am gonna pick him as the shocker if CC doesn't win. My reasons to back him are: 1-trainer Bill Mott, 2-jockey Mike Smith, 3-sire and dam Bernardini (out of AP Indy) and Golden Sonata (out of Mr. Prospector), 4- odds ML 30-1, will probably go off at 90-1. Matuszak will more than likely to run last, but if anything is gonna shock CC, might as well be a complete surprise!! $20W on 6-Matuszak.

GL everyone, and always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[mrginandtonic]

It has been a while since we did a DRF Race of the Day. Today we have Race 9 at Belmont for the DRF Race of the Day, 1 Mile Turf. DRF analysts picked the 4-Passing Pfast and 5-Granny **'s Kitten. The 5 and 1 are scratched. This is a pretty competitve field where any one of this can win. In terms of beyer speed figure, all are very similar. We have two horses that just broke maiden, the 3-Pink Poppy and the 10-Almurra. I ususally play against these. This race is really hard so I am gonna take a stab at the 8-Miss Frost @ 10-1 ML. I like her because she ran well against Granny last year, and her tactical speed should be right there turning for home. Curlin out of Smart Strike is one of my favorite sire. Also, Prado is one of favorite jockey at 1 mile turf. Third try off layoff, Prado back at the iron and at 10-1. Why not?? $20W on 8-Miss Frost and $5 exacta 8- 2, 3.

GL everyone, and as always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[mrginandtonic]

It has been a while since we did a DRF Race of the Day. Today we have Race 9 at Belmont for the DRF Race of the Day, 1 Mile Turf. DRF analysts picked the 4-Passing Pfast and 5-Granny **'s Kitten. The 5 and 1 are scratched. This is a pretty competitve field where any one of this can win. In terms of beyer speed figure, all are very similar. We have two horses that just broke maiden, the 3-Pink Poppy and the 10-Almurra. I ususally play against these. This race is really hard so I am gonna take a stab at the 8-Miss Frost @ 10-1 ML. I like her because she ran well against Granny last year, and her tactical speed should be right there turning for home. Curlin out of Smart Strike is one of my favorite sire. Also, Prado is one of favorite jockey at 1 mile turf. Third try off layoff, Prado back at the iron and at 10-1. Why not?? $20W on 8-Miss Frost and $5 exacta 8- 2, 3.

GL everyone, and as always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Wow, what a photo finish!!

[wildrides]

Nice job! Congrats on the big score.

[mrginandtonic]

Nice job! Congrats on the big score.

Thanks Wildrides. Hope you won as well.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day: The Delaware Handicap @ 1 1/4 on dirt. 6-Princess of Sylmar is the ML favorite @ 1-1. It will most likely go off much lower. On paper, it sure doesn't look like any one can beat her. So how do we play this race? If you have the form, you can most likely single her in your Pick 3 & 4. Since I don't, I am only gonna make an exacta and trifecta play. DRF analysts picked the 6-Princess of Sylmar with 1- Belle Gallantey. I think most would agree when looking the pace scenario. Most would agree that the 1 would go to lead and try to steal it with Princess over take her turning for home. My only concern is that can Belle take the distance?? So I am gonna take the 3-Molly Morgan and 4-Gamay Noir who I believe that they have a better chance of making this classic distance (based on their respective sires). My bets: $20 Exacta 6- 3, 4 and $5 Trifecta: 6-3,4-3,4.

GL everyone! And as usual, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[mikemca]

I think 1-Belle Gallantey 10-1 might wire this and will protect with a 6-1 EX cold

[JBEX]

Not in my paper edition.. You'd think they'd put the Delaware card in today
instead of Suffolk.. geez

[TonyP]

passing this race however think 6-Princess of Sylmar will be tough in this spot

[mrginandtonic]

I think 1-Belle Gallantey 10-1 might wire this and will protect with a 6-1 EX cold

The race turned out as expected. I just didn't think Belle can go the distance. Good call Mike.

[TonyP]

I think 1-Belle Gallantey 10-1 might wire this and will protect with a 6-1 EX cold

nice call on the 1

[mrginandtonic]

Got a question for you guys, did any one notice the odds on Belle today. It was more than 15-1 just a few minutes before the race. And it dropped drastically to 6-1 in a couple of minutes. There was a lot of money wager the last minute. Does any one know what it opened? What do you think of that late movement? I thought to myself my bet on Princess is toast for sure. Sure enough, she ran second. Any thoughts??

[getthatheadup]

I saw mutuel pool at 936,00 dont know how much was in win pool but norm is about 60% of total mutual pool. Based on that looks like about 37,00 bet on her in last minutes. Anyone pickup on Belle's history. Claimed for 35,000 last december. Won 4 0f five since and a good 5th in grade 1 prior to this race And this grade 1 for 450,000! 606,400 earned since claim less than 7 months ago! Hats of to mr.Rodriguez and to you Mikemca

[mrginandtonic]

I saw mutuel pool at 936,00 dont know how much was in win pool but norm is about 60% of total mutual pool. Based on that looks like about 37,00 bet on her in last minutes. Anyone pickup on Belle's history. Claimed for 35,000 last december. Won 4 0f five since and a good 5th in grade 1 prior to this race And this grade 1 for 450,000! 606,400 earned since claim less than 7 months ago! Hats of to mr.Rodriguez and to you Mikemca

The fact that she was claimed for $35k just recently, and now that she is running a Grade 1. That was the main reason that I had my doubts about her ability to get the distance. The fact that she had 40 life time starts and the most recent ones shown in the form are either sprints or at most 1 1/16. And now she takes on Princesess of Sylmar at 1 1/4 and beat her!! I know Belle had a good trip and a comfortable lead; nonetheless, Princess should be better than that. I find it hard to believe a horse that is recently claimed for $35k and step up and beat a true graded horse. Is there something wrong with Princess??

[getthatheadup]

I agree. Would have not bet her even at 15-1. Still amazing job by trainer.

[mikemca]

Thx guys

I'm a figures guy and figures say Belle's top was on par with what Princess of Sylmar ran last race, Belle should of been 2nd choice on the ML imo so 15-1 was a huge overlay and 6-1 was about right.Especially with the pace edge she had.

1)That was a optional claimer with a 74k pot that she was claimed out of.
2)Rudy immediately jumped her up 28 points on my figs and she stayed there every race since so it wasn't just a 1 time jump up like you see with some of these wizards.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day is The Oceanside at Del Mar Race 8 going 1 mile on turf. DRF analysts picked the 5-Patriots Rule and 8-Diamond Bachelor. The 8 and 11 are scratched. IMO this race is pretty hard to pick a clear winner. I like the 9-Enterprising because he is trained by Protor and ridden by Mike Smith. Just have to repect Protor on turf. I also like 10-Texas Ryano because he is out of Curlin (from Smart Strike- one of my favorite sires) and trained by Carla Gaines. I think the pace should be good for these two horse. One has tactical speed and the other closing from behind. Not gonna spend too much, so I am gonna play: 1, 9, 10 trifector box. and $0.10 super 1,9,10/1,9,10/1,5,7,9,10,12/1,5,7,9,10,12.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day is The Oceanside at Del Mar Race 8 going 1 mile on turf. DRF analysts picked the 5-Patriots Rule and 8-Diamond Bachelor. The 8 and 11 are scratched. IMO this race is pretty hard to pick a clear winner. I like the 9-Enterprising because he is trained by Protor and ridden by Mike Smith. Just have to repect Protor on turf. I also like 10-Texas Ryano because he is out of Curlin (from Smart Strike- one of my favorite sires) and trained by Carla Gaines. I think the pace should be good for these two horse. One has tactical speed and the other closing from behind. Not gonna spend too much, so I am gonna play: 1, 9, 10 trifector box. and $0.10 super 1,9,10/1,9,10/1,5,7,9,10,12/1,5,7,9,10,12.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Good thing I did a $5 exacta box on 1,9,10, so it wasn't a total loss. Anyways on to Friday DRF Race of the Day: Saratoga Race 3- The Schuylerville @ 6 f dirt. The 4-Fashion Alert is the ML favorite at 3-5. Just can't bring my self to bet on him @ 3-5. So I am gonna play the 2-Tulira's Star. She is the other filly that posted a 88 beyer. I am gonna go with her just because of her connections. Team Valor bought her privately after her maiden win. Just got to think that she is something special. Also, she was the one here that didn't win at maiden going wire to wire. So we will see. Gonna do an exacta 2- 1, 5. If this hits, it should pay pretty good cuz Fashion didn't even come 2nd. LOL.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Gonna add another exacta: 4-1, 5