Jbex plays

[JBEX]

royal ascot.. thursday

R1 #10 mount fuji (10-1)

so so figure breaking maiden first out.. connections, jockey and pedigree does it for me

R2 #4 cap francais (15-1)




R3 #4 frankelina (7-1)

obviously by the great sire and racehorse frankel.. didn't embarrass herself jumping from G3 @ 1 1/4 to G1 @ 1 1/2 in her last start although finished behind the favorite (#3).. with her pedigree and only 4th career start think there's a chance she'll go forward today



R4 #6 cross counter (4-1)

clear 2nd choice to the #4 stradivarius (6-5)


R5 #3 turgenev (15-1)
R5 #14 glorious lover (20-1)


30 horses if everybody goes so why not 2 picks



R6 #8 good birthday (12-1)

he showed considerable talent as a 2yo (this is a 3yo only race).. has put in two solid efforts in his only starts as a 3yo and I think the best alternative to the likely favorite #1 constantinople (5-1)

[JBEX]

finished ascot

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R2 #5 grisaceo (6-1)
R3 #2 heated element (9-5)
R6 #3 diamond mint (3-1)
R7 #8 borough boy (7-2)
R10 #4 imperial majesty (12-1)






churchill ...5pm

R1 #2 jay jay creed (15-1)


1st time starter bred/owned and trained by same last name and trainer has had only two starts on the year.. going with the speed sire and like the bottom also relative to what else is running here


R2 #4 classy jewel (3-1)
R3 #2 meantime (5-2)
R4 #8 yellen (4-1)
R5 #3 chess chief (7-2)


R7 #7 sir dudley digges (7-1)
R8 #6 cliff's place (6-1)

[JBEX]

churchill through 5

[JBEX]

finished churchill

[JBEX]

ascot .. friday

R1 #16 last surprise (15-1)

going to go with one of the 3 by no nay never who's one of the best sires of 2yo's in europe.. there are 3 of them in here but this one is ridden by dettori who had 4 wins and a 2nd from the 6 races run yesterday

R2 #4 jack yeats (30-1)

the last race yesterday was 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo's.. the favorite was by #1 sire in the world galileo and he finished 2nd at around 4-1..the winner was the other galileo and he paid
$86 to win.. today's race for 3yo's also at 1 1/2 miles but a grade 2..#5 japan (6-5) by galileo and there's two others by him #6 (8-1) and mine. ..no question the others have more credentials than mine but not enough to justify the odds gap imo.. understand the final betting may be different but have to go by the ml picking in advance

R3 #1 advertise (10-1)

what i'm thinking is the effort back here last year as a 2yo in june.. 2nd by a half length in a grade 2 at this distance in a 23 horse field.. a big figure of course goes with that. good effort at 7f two back and the mile last out vs g1's too much.. back at 6f where he belongs.. definetly feel he'll be lower with frankie riding



R4 #3 hermosa (1-1) exacta 3-2

not going to try to beat this "galilean" monster but going to try and get the #2 happen (15-1) in 2nd for an exacta.. this one has a huge pedigree in her own right being by #1 us sire war front and out of a sadlers wells (galileo's pop) mare.. sure if I dug into the dam's actual record, half siblings and what she's produced that there's probably a lot more good stuff but more than I want to do.. she did beat older horses in a grade 3 last out and gets to go an extra furlong today which certainly can't hurt


R5 #2 coral beach (12-1)

3rd off the layoff and should appreciate the major class drop.. top jockey ryan moore aboard


28 horses w/o scratches.. 24-28 run as one entry and would be huge longshots on their own



R6 #5 pivoine (15-1)
R6 #12 top tug (20-1)

both exit the same last race and finished about dead even.. the class drop should serve them well

20 horse field w/o scratches

[JBEX]

finished ascot

[JBEX]

gulfstream (.20)rainbow 6


$2.6 million carryover

ticket has no chance of being the lone single but the carryover money usually even with the 30% carry forward and regular p6 takeout makes it normally an overlay payoff.. ticket cost $86.40

R4.. 28
R5.. 26
R6..145
R7..2369
R8..256
R9.. 149

[JBEX]

gulfstream (.20)rainbow 6


$2.6 million carryover

ticket has no chance of being the lone single but the carryover money usually even with the 30% carry forward and regular p6 takeout makes it normally an overlay payoff.. ticket cost $86.40

R4.. 28
R5.. 26
R6..145
R7..2369
R8..256
R9.. 149

R4 ..W $9.80
R5 .. had 2 favorites..missed ($26.80)
R6..W $5.80
R7..missed by half length($11.80)
R8..W $4.00
R9..W $18.40

scratch in R6 would bring it down to $57.60


paid $11,316 for 20 cents..parlay price $4132 so 173% overlay

[JBEX]

ascot saturday

R1 #9 lope y fernandez (6-5) currently 8-5 us market
R2 #2 bye bye hong kong (10-1)

R3 #2 defoe (4-1)

4th race off a 5 month layoff.. love the incremental steps forward in figures, competition level, results and also the spacing of his races.. capable vs these


R4 #6 emblazoned (20-1)

besides the most obvious thing (frankie riding) it was truly impressive how this one rapidly ascended the class ladder and kept getting it done.. has a nice effort under him off an 11 month layoff.. like the fact he's only 4yo and by one of the elite sire's invincible spirit.. trained by one of the best over there john gosden

R4 #16 the tin man (10-1)

consistent hard nosed g1 sprinter who may have been a little tired in his poor final effort last year.. listed stakes race under him off a 7 month layoff and if he returns to last year's form he could give these a fight



R5 #1 bacchus (15-1)

he won (33-1) his 2018 opener vs a 26 horse field on 6/23 this track, same distance, class, jockey as today.. followed that up with a respectable 4th by less than 2 vs better company but then got a little nutty and sent him to france to try grade 1 company with only 15 days rest (19/20)..gave him 2 months rest and again threw him in vs grade 1 company here (last vs 14).. returns to ascot off a very similar long layoff as last year


R5 #5 hey jonesy (20-1)

he's run well vs significantly better and should appreciate the drop


25+ horses in this race



R6 #9 max dynamite (5-2)

thing the combo of a fresh horse, right level, ryan moore could get it done here.. realize this one's the favorite and they're going much further than he's ever gone but still like the positives

[JBEX]

finished and added R1.. saw nothing interesting and went favorite

[JBEX]

belmont

R4 #6 violent point (7-2)

trainer having a great meet and johnny v 2 for 3 riding for him.. expensive relative to the pedigree and has been working right along.. sire starting to accumulate a decent sample size of runners and he's top notch with debuters


R6 #4 golani brigade (3-1)

debuter who's extremely expensive for the pedigree and is by one of the best first out sires.. add chad.. enough said


R10 #7 jack the cat (6-1)



monmouth


R1 #8 double deep (7-2)
R3 #1 magnifier (4-5)
R9 #1 air attack (8-1)


R11 united nations stakes grade 1

#3 arrocha (12-1)

how good are brazilian grade 1 horses. ..sure way below ours but he was as consistent as they come in marathons at that level over there last year and they were vs huge fields..the pace in his first race over here in may was about 9 lengths fast and he was about 5 lengths off so sure he got something out of that off the long layoff..finished last in that race which was a grade 3 at 1 1/8 miles..
fascinated that they'd give him at shot at this grade 1 @ a marathon distance especially with chad brown as the trainer..won't see him at this ml too often..excellent turf rider gallardo aboard

[JBEX]

added monmouth 11

[JBEX]

belmont


R6 #5 cleon jones (5-2)

2yo first time starter who cost a bunch relative to his pedigree.. above avg first out sire and trainer tearing it up here.. I was only 6 in 1969 and grew up about 2 miles from shea stadium.. sure str remembers cleon jones..caught the final out of the 69 series vs the o's ..appropriately this is a nyb race


R8 #2 analyzethisansthat (12-1)

think this is a little high on the ml but has to do with the bad trainer.. this is a 3yo nyb turf stakes race @ 7f and this horse broke his maiden in a turf sprint at saratoga last year.. jock who rode him is getting back on.. more than likely this homebred is the big horse in his stable and this would be a bigger win to him than most in here


R9 #8 kathy's cause (12-1)

crazy morning line..you have to dig a little but not that much


monmouth

R5 #3 hit the curb (9-2)
R6 #9 zumbya (8-1)


churchill.. off turf or sloppy no play

R1 #6 merlin's song (6-1)
R2 #5 long weekend (7-2)
R4 #2 maggie pie (6-1)
R5 #2 ria munk (6-1)



santa anita


R4 #10 amalfi sunrise (3-1)
R7 #5 rayray (10-1)
R10 #3 barbadolla (10-1)

[JBEX]

added mth and cd

[JBEX]

added santa anita

[JBEX]

woodbine/mohawk.. monday


R3 #4 knight angel (6-1)
R6 #7 only for justice (9-2)
R7 #2 foot soldier (3-1)

R10 #4 royal witch (3-1)

[JBEX]

added 10

[JBEX]

belmont

R1 #8 overlord (15-1)

don't get ml ??

R6 #4 assault breaker (2-1)
R7 #3 tradeable (15-1)
R8 #8 funderella (12-1)

good jockey this horse is 4-1 ml.. never heard of her and she's not a bug??



delaware

R3 #10 notionality (7-2)

an also eligible


R4 #7 shatter me (4-1)
R7 #7 blame henny (6-1)

gotta hope there's a speed duel and turf course doesn't favor speed.. 234 most likely to hook up on the front.. this is a ny quality allowance race

R8 #1 race me home (2-1)

probably odds-on but looks well meant and tons the best





---------------




wednesday afternoon







month >=6 and BASB and day =Wednesday and DAY and line <=-220 and streak >=2 and total >=8


9-0 (-268) (5.44)


most recent 8-3/4-1/5-2/12-0/5-1/18-5/7-5/6-3/5-1


both qualify


bos (-1.5) -168
nyy (-1.5) -130

[JBEX]

added two afternoon mlb

[JBEX]

they say paxton gives up less homeruns per inning at home than anyone.. 2 so far though 2 innings

[JBEX]

they say paxton gives up less homeruns per inning at home than anyone.. 2 so far though 2 innings

white sox get 3 top of the 1st to boot

[JBEX]

evangeline

R8 #6 mr priority (9-2)

[JBEX]

delaware

R3 #2 j beresford tipton (4-1)

first time starter with big pedigree, connections (trainer on fire) and jockey.. comes in with long string of progressive (in distance) works from top training center

R4 #2 princess a'go go (9-5)

sure last 2 where she was way overmatched were just preps off the long layoff to be ready for today. broke her maiden going 2 turns here vs $12.5 maidens a long time ago and finally back to the level where she's supposed to be.. cheap pedigree so no concern about sale price



R7 #7 reiltin oir (10-1)



month >=6 and BASB and DAY and (day =Thursday or day =Wednesday) and LGS and p:HOL and p:line <=-200 and WP- o:WP >10 and total <=10 and NDIV


6-0 (-184) (5.50)


most recent .. 10-5/5-1/4-1/10-2/11-1/5-2 (45-12)


hou -1.5 (+104)


belmont.. crappy card


R2 #4 movie score (20-1)
R3 #2 desert lights (9-5)
R4 #4 chillinwithfriends (6-5)
R9#4 nay lady nay (7-2)




churchill downs

R1 #4 fine one won (6-1)
R4 #8 lea ridge (8-1)
R5 #2 demimondaine (4-1)
R8 #4 flat out beautiful (3-1)

[JBEX]

did belmont

[JBEX]

did churchill

[JBEX]

churchill


R1 #7 windy city kitty (6-1)
R2 #7 moonster (6-1)
R4 #9 twixy cat (12-1)
R11 #2 wildlife (12-1)





monmouth

R7 #1 athary (15-1)

has shown minimal talent in all 3 of her lifetime starts with the first two being in britain.. ran fairly evenly to the eighth pole last out at belmont off an eight month layoff.. 2nd time lasix, clement ships to monmouth and this horse has a huge pedigree.. possible she's a total bust but feel there's a chance could wake up and now's the time to get aboard while she looks bad on paper.. rail is the place to be in turf routes at monmouth




belmont


R9 #2 alpha test (3-1)

[JBEX]

added monmouth 7

[JBEX]

added belmont 9

[JBEX]

woodbine



R8 #8 rock my love (7-2)


R10 the queen's plate


#10 skywire (4-1)


pace compromised both of his last two races.. good 2nd last out and strong win 2 back with a solid figure.. top jt combo casse /desilva.. think more around 5-2.. you know he likes the surface which can't be said for a few of the other logicals




R11 #4 vagary (12-1)

I'll forgive the debut at kentucky downs last year just because it's an oddball track.. with last race off a 6 month layoff and a nice pedigree could see a step forward at a decent price.. casse/pratt good jt combo with the latter a far better turf jockey than anybody in here

[Easy-Rider 66]

woodbine



R8 #8 rock my love (7-2)


R10 the queen's plate


#10 skywire (4-1)


pace compromised both of his last two races.. good 2nd last out and strong win 2 back with a solid figure.. top jt combo casse /desilva.. think more around 5-2.. you know he likes the surface which can't be said for a few of the other logicals




R11 #4 vagary (12-1)

I'll forgive the debut at kentucky downs last year just because it's an oddball track.. with last race off a 6 month layoff and a nice pedigree could see a step forward at a decent price.. casse/pratt good jt combo with the latter a far better turf jockey than anybody in here

Looks like Pratt is off the #4 in WO R11.

[JBEX]

belmont

R5 #7 fortune smiles (5-1)



monmouth

R5 #2 hillsdown (6-1)



los alamitos


R9 #7 adulting (3-1) guessing 7-5

[JBEX]

added last at alamitos

[JBEX]

tampa bay


R8 #7 simmard's roar (5-2)

last race @ 1 1/16 he was on the lead of a 7 length fast pace and gave it up in the final eighth.. half furlong shorter today and i'd equate a mdn 12.5k at gulfstream to today's mdn 16k at tampa class-wise. probably be out there by himself and hopefully that's all it'll take to get it done

[JBEX]

indiana grande


R1 #3 savedbestforlast (4-1)
R2 #6 bride (20-1)

looks like crap on paper and may very well be just that.. my hope is this is a 3yo homebred with a pedigree that's much better than the rest in here.. making only her 5th career start and races spaced close together for a dcent trainer who's also the owner/breeder.. he's hit big mutuels with this jockey and in maiden races in general

R5 #1 bizby (8-1)


R6 #5 classical magic (9-5)

two horse race between mine and #4 tupelo hon (2-1)..appears to be the lone speed and over a small sample that has worked well here in turf routes.. all of her turf routes have been solid efforts vs significantly better horses.. not concerned at all about the drop to $32k as this horse has a very modest pedigree



R8 #6 babadoook (20-1)

looks ugly on paper although has shown speed vs better.. could see him out front on his own and sometimes that's all you need vs maiden claimers.. again speed is an edge at this track in turf routes